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strikeApr 13, 2026

How a US blockade near the Strait of Hormuz could work and the impact ahead for the global economy

Summary

A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened to impose the blockade after talks to further a fragile ceasefire ended without a deal this past weekend. Iran had previously halted nearly all tanker traffic through the key waterway, allowing only some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees. Enforcing the blockade is likely to demand significant resources from the U.S. Navy and could prompt concerns about military force and international law, experts say. Supply chain analysts, meanwhile, stress that the restrictions could undermine the flow of oil, fertilizer, food and other goods to consumers already facing higher prices. How the US could enforce a blockade of Iranian ports Successfully enforcing the blockade will require sustained commitment of U.S. Navy ships and personnel, as well as clear guidance from the Trump administration and the Navy’s legal department, experts say. From a military standpoint, the biggest challenge will be the enormous volume of shipping traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of the world's traded oil normally passes. A considerable number of ships may be needed to enforce the restrictions, according to Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London. “A lot depends on the early days of the blockade, how many vessels the Americans can seize, how much they can convince vessels attempting to slip through a cordon that they’re likely to be seized,” Kaushal said. “But in all likelihood, I’d say it will prove difficult for the U.S. to enforce.” The strait’s narrow confines at least will make the geographic area of concern a limited one, said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University Law Center’s National Security Law Program. Still, the amount of traffic that goes through “is going to be a challenge,” he said. The U.S. may have to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to reach Iranian ports, Huntley said, a decision that could determine the blockade’s legality under international law. International rules also require that any nation enforcing a blockade do so impartially, after issuing an advisory to mariners. “How it is carried out will determine whether it is lawful or not,” said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general. “You can’t enact a blockade with the goal of starving the civilian population. Even the DOD law of war manual states that neutral vessels carrying relief supplies should be allowed to pass.” Few merchant vessels are likely to try to evade a blockade, according to Raul Pedrozo, professor of international law at the Naval War College and a retired Navy captain and JAG officer. They won’t want to take their chances against the U.S. Navy, he said. “They see a warship, and they’re going to heave to,” Pedrozo said. Naval blockades aren't a fix-all but can be a tool Blockades historically haven’t been enough on their own but have been used to exert pressure on other countries and their economies during conflicts, experts say. “There are always ways to economize, import, substitute, or just give up on certain things that you can no longer build for want of foreign inputs," Kaushal said. "It can make things a lot harder in a lot of ways, but it doesn’t necessarily achieve decisive outcomes.” A blockade alone can’t sever Iran’s economic ties with trading partners, including China and Russia, or cut off access to the Caspian Sea or Central Asia. The blockade also risks an Iranian response that could reignite the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, who specializes in Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran could deploy naval mines, small fast-attack boats and missiles against shipping in response, further disrupting the global economy. “The U.S. wants this to be a short and sweet operation. I don’t think that it can be,” Nadimi said. Trump said Iran has some “fast attack ships” remaining and warned Tehran that any of them coming “anywhere close” to the U.S. blockade would be destroyed by a “quick and brutal” strike. Iran responded with its own threats on ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Oil prices could keep rising With fears of attacks, experts say most ships won't want to take the risk. The waterway could effectively stay shut — and prices, particularly for oil and gasoline, could rise even more. Halting roughly 20% of the world’s flow of oil has already led to cuts from some major producers in the region, because their crude has nowhere to go. “The problem with a two-side blockade is that you know it’s going to take much longer for the strait to open up and for some kind of agreement to come about — and that’s what's going to send these prices further skyrocketing,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University whose research focuses on supply chains. Analysts warn that the longer the waterway is closed, the worse prices could get. Oil has swung on markets' quick reactions to announcements from Trump and others about the fate of the war, but they remain steep overall, with crude trading Monday above $100 a barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war. Households and businesses are paying the consequences — particularly in Asia, where countries rely more heavily on fuel imports from the Middle East. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and consumers worldwide are feeling a pinch in their wallets. American drivers, for example, have seen gas prices spike to an average of more than $4.12 a gallon — up from $2.98 before the war. Global supply chains also could see further disruptions The blockade also would hurt the transportation of food and fertilizer, said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University. He said the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and other countries could especially see “dramatic food price increases,” as supplies will have to be flown in. Some 30% of the world's fertilizer also comes through the strait, potentially harming farmers and as a result worsening hunger worldwide. “Now you’re talking about impacting the global harvest,” Penfield said. Between these disruptions and oil shocks, he noted that such chaos and uncertainty “bleeds out throughout the whole world.” Mani said chemicals to make basic supplies like paint and metal, including aluminum, would see additional disruptions. She pointed to price pressures even before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran — including new tariffs imposed by Trump, supply chain problems from the COVID-19 pandemic and other geopolitical conflicts. “We just have to be prepared for constant higher prices, irrespective of how this blockade turns out,” she said. “Each crisis has a lingering effect on the next one.” ____ AP Business Writer Mae Anderson contributed to this report in New York.

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  • WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS, DAVID KLEPPER and JOHN LEICESTER, Associated PressBy WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS, DAVID KLEPPER and JOHN LEICESTER, Associated Press

    A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump

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The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

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Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

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The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

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They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

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If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

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FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem