2026伊朗-海湾危机追踪
CC
Events Archive
strikeJul 7, 2026

How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxies

Summary

How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's paramilitary proxy groups, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, all of whom are opposed to the US and Israel. The assumption was that "by hitting the right leaders, weapons facilities and supply lines, an outside actor could induce catastrophic failure across the Iranian regime and its web of Middle Eastern allies," said Peter Salisbury, a fellow at US think tank Century International and lead author of the think tank's recently published report"Beyond the Axis." Despite the US and Israel achieving many of those military objectives, Iranian forces were able to continue launching drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while their allies in Lebanon and Yemen intensified attacks against Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Operational autonomy For Wolf-Christian Paes, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and one of the contributors to the "Beyond the Axis" report, the term "proxies" is actually misleading as it implies a command-and-control relationship between Tehran and the members of the axis. "Unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV] proliferation is a good example," he told DW. A few years ago, Tehran transferred complete systems and the necessary training to its allies. "Today these militias can build their own UAVs, based on Iranian designs, with most of the parts coming from countries other than Iran," Paes said. For example, according to the report, which was published after two years of research, these groups are able to source large quantities of engines for the Shahed-136 drone directly from Chinese manufacturers. "Dual-use technology is difficult to control in the first place and without a traditional hub for smuggling, tracking the supply chain is like looking for a needle in a haystack," Paes told DW, adding that for example China, Russia but also Oman have so far made no real attempts to control the movement of these items. According to the "Beyond the Axis" report, drone-related conflict incidents around the world rose from 140 in 2016 to more than 58,000 in 2025, a 41,000% increase. Regional ties with Iran changing "The growing ability of Iran's partners to manufacture and deploy drones independently is also changing the nature of their relationship with Tehran," Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. In his view, the Houthi militia in Yemen illustrates this trend. The group now possesses a level of operational autonomy that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago. "Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah helped establish the foundations of the Houthis' drone and missile programs, while years of conflict and isolation compelled them to develop domestic production capabilities," he told DW. During the two-year war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, the Houthis attacked Israel as well as international shipping in the Red Sea with drones and missiles in what they said was a bid to show support for Palestinians in Gaza. During the war in Iran from February to April 2026, the Houthis resumed attacks. The report also notes that, since at least 2022, a small group of senior Houthi officers in Sanaa have built relationships across the African coasts of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. "Houthi smuggling networks are now present in Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan," the report said. Lebanon's Hezbollah militia For many years, Lebanon's Hezbollah militia was Tehran's best-equipped proxy largely because of its proximity to Israel. A day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct.7, 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front in Israel's north which escalated into a war in Lebanon. "Israeli efforts to degrade the organization's leadership and military infrastructure created a situation in which Iranian assistance became essential for recovery," Quilliam said. A November 2024 ceasefire fell apart in early March 2026, after Hezbollah attacked Israel with drones and missiles following the Israeli killing of the Iran's leader Ali Khamenei, who Hezbollah also pledged allegiance to. In the peace talks between the US and Tehran, the front in Lebanon has since become a key issue. "Hezbollah's participation alongside Iran during the recent conflict, coupled with Tehran's insistence that any ceasefire arrangement include Lebanon, demonstrated how closely the two remain linked," Quilliam said. Hamas in Gaza, paramilitary groups in Iraq As a consequence of Israel's prolonged military campaign in Gaza, Tehran's access to Gaza and Hamas is reduced, Quilliam said. "That should not be mistaken for a permanent decline in Iranian relevance, as the relationships, training networks and technical expertise developed over decades have not disappeared," he told DW. In his view, Tehran's ties to Hamas illustrate how military cooperation can survive even when political influence temporarily recedes. In Iraq, Tehran-linked armed groups need to balance local Iraqi interests against their ties with Iran, Quilliam observed. While greater drone self-sufficiency gives them more independent means of projecting power and expanding influence, "the challenge for Tehran increasingly lies in coordinating a growing number of capable actors whose interests only partially overlap," Quilliam said. In his view, Iran retains influence through political relationships, training, intelligence sharing and strategic coordination across all of these groups. "But influence is not the same as control," he told DW. 'New type of challenge' Salisbury, of Century International, agrees that Iran is still the militia groups' most powerful and consequential node but the relationship between Tehran and the proxies has turned into one of mutual interdependence. "Capabilities, data and strategic needs flow in multiple directions," he said. Does all this make it harder for Iran's opponents to dismantle these networks, and to reduce the threat of drone warfare from them? "Looking ahead, the most significant consequence of drone proliferation across the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' may be the emergence of multiple centers of expertise within what was once viewed primarily as an Iranian-led system," Quilliam told DW. "This makes the wider network more resilient, harder to disrupt and potentially more unpredictable."

Actors involved

USIsraelIranProxyRussiaChina

Sources

  • Jennifer HolleisBy Jennifer Holleis

    How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's par

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina
1 source

7 min readNew DelhiJul 21, 2026 03:06 PM IST A dramatic image posted on social media by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week fuelled concern in India. It showed the maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port collapsing after US military strikes.

The image was part of a series of photographs posted by Hegseth, captioned: “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz”. While New Delhi is already reeling under the impact of US sanctions on its strategically vital infrastructure project in Iran, where it has invested billions, the military strikes sparked fresh concerns.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) clarified that the terminal it operates at Chabahar Port, Shahid Beheshti, was not damaged in the US strikes. “We have seen some reports in that regard, but we can also tell you that the terminal itself did not face any damage,” said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

The ministry, however, reiterated India’s position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts. Here’s a look at the strategic importance of Chabahar for India, New Delhi’s investment in the project and how its future hangs in the balance.

India’s stakes in Chabahar The Chabahar port has two main terminals — Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Kalantari — with India managing the latter. It is operated by India Ports Global Ltd (IPGL), a wholly owned subsidiary of India Ports Global Chabahar Free Zone (IPGCFZ), under a 10-year renewable agreement with Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

A tower at the Chabahar port in 2021. Wikimedia Commons India and Iran have been developing Chabahar as a key trade and connectivity hub, particularly to improve access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar holds strategic importance for India as it provides an alternative trade route to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, which does not allow Indian goods transit through its territory.

For Iran, Chabahar is vital because it is its only oceanic port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the congested Strait of Hormuz. To ensure its continuous operation, India and Iran signed a landmark 10-year contract in May 2024 — replacing previous short-term contracts — to equip and operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal.

To avoid financial penalties in the wake of US sanctions, India prepaid its $120 million investment and transferred its operational stake at Shahid Beheshti to local entities. Story continues below this ad US sanctions on Chabahar American sanctions on Chabahar stem from its broader economic and military measures against Tehran.

Despite India’s continued efforts to develop the port for regional connectivity, the history of these sanctions and waivers has severely restricted the project’s progress. The Donald Trump administration walked the US out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and imposed sanctions on dealing with Tehran.

At the same time, it also granted a targeted sanctions waiver for the Chabahar port to support humanitarian and economic efforts in Afghanistan. Chabahar port location For several years, the port facilitated the delivery of Indian wheat and medical supplies to Afghanistan.

In September last year, the US administration withdrew the sanctions waiver, only to grant the exemption again through a six-month waiver in October that officially expired on April 26. Jaiswal said that India has been in discussions with “relevant stakeholders” after the expiry of the waiver.

Story continues below this ad “There was a waiver which was given by America and that waiver got over some time back. Post that, we have been in discussion with relevant stakeholders as to how to take this particular issue forward,” he said. Owing to the end of the sanctions waivers, India is losing its direct operational control over the Chabahar project.

Importance for New Delhi, Tehran Chabahar is vital for India not only because it provides direct, secure access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, but also because it serves as a counterweight to China’s development of the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, located just 140 km away.

The sea-land transit route that allows India to bypass Pakistan is also viewed as an important part of the International North-South Transport Corridor, a multi-mode transport network connecting India with Iran, Russia, Europe and parts of Central Asia.

In that sense, the port represents far more than maritime infrastructure. For Tehran, however, it also serves as a crucial economic hub in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, functioning as a gateway to connect Iran with landlocked Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Russia.

As Chabahar was hit by the US military strikes last week, Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei lashed at Hegeseth, talking about Chabahar in the same breath as the Minab school attack. “The Chabahar Maritime Surveillance Tower — a civilian facility dedicated to maritime safety and navigation — was deliberately targeted by the United States on 16 June as part of its ongoing aggression that began on 28 February.

The US Secretary of War proudly released footage of the tower’s collapse,” Baqaei posted. “Had he been able, he would likely have broadcast the lethal missile attack on the Minab school and the massacre of civilians in Lamerd with the same chilling pride.

” Future hangs in balance In 2024, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that the grant assistance for the supply of equipment (to Chabahar) had been enhanced to $120 million. “India has also committed to provide a Line of Credit of $250 million in rupee equivalent for the development of Chabahar Port.

Since 2018, the port has handled over 450 vessels, 1,34,082 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent) of containerised cargo and more than 8.7 million tons of bulk and general cargo,” he said. Story continues below this ad India has already supplied port equipment worth about $24 million to develop the port, he said, adding: “The process for procurement of remaining port equipment for Chabahar Port is underway.

” Chabahar had received an allocation of Rs 400 allocation in the previous financial year. But the Union Budget for 2026-27 made no allocation for the port. This has left questions hanging over the future of this strategic trade route to Afghanistan, and further to Central Asia.

Without Chabahar, India loses its primary non-Pakistani corridor to landlocked markets, effectively undoing New Delhi’s decades of connectivity planning. The port had reduced transit times by 40% and costs by nearly a third, making it indispensable for India’s regional strategy.

Also, the situation is set to fuel strategic concerns for New Delhi if Beijing (via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and through Gwadar) could increase its geopolitical footprint in Iran. The elimination of the Chabahar waiver by the US by default tilts the regional balance toward China and Pakistan.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
1 source

A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran