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2026伊朗-海湾危机追踪
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strikeMar 27, 2026

Is Energy Market Complacent Amid Oil's Backwardation? ETFs in Focus

Summary

Oil prices have remained highly volatile since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict about a month ago due to uncertain supply dynamics. While prices have pulled back at times on hopes of ceasefire, they continue to trade at elevated levels due to ongoing tensions, including missile strikes and congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has gained about 44.3% over the past month due to heightened geopolitical tensions but the ETF has lost about 8.3% over the past week on cues of diplomacy (as of March 25, 2026). Oil in Backwardation: Signals Temporary Price Spike Despite the volatility, the oil market has entered backwardation, where near-term prices are higher than those for future delivery, as quoted on CNBC. This structure suggests that the current price surge is viewed as temporary due to immediate geopolitical risks rather than long-term supply shortages. If markets expected prolonged supply concerns, long-dated future contracts would also trade at higher prices, not lower ones. Market watchers believe that the current rally is being treated as an event-driven spike, with expectations that prices will ease once a resolution is reached. Supply Risks to Last Long? Despite expectations of a resolution, risks remain significant. Damage to energy infrastructure could take years to repair. According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, energy infrastructure repair and restoration costs to date could be at least $25 billion, based on an initial assessment of impacted facilities, and are expected to rise further.Spending is likely to be on engineering and construction, followed by equipment and materials. In the war, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Later, Iran apparently targeted natural gas infrastructure in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. With Qatar being the world’s third-largest gas exporter, any strike could be a massive hit to the global supply. Per Jim Krane, a fellow in Middle East Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, there have been direct attacks on multibillion-dollar infrastructure that’s going to take as long as five years to fix. This is likely to keep a significant portion of global liquified natural gas supplies off the market for a long time, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Overall, several experts warn that markets may not be fully pricing in the long-term impact of infrastructure damage. Hence, the latest trend of backwardation in the oil market is probably a sign of complacency. Pre-War Oil Price Less Likely to be Back? Even as futures markets point to lower prices ahead, a risk premium remains firmly embedded, as quoted on CNBC. Indrani De, head of globalinvestment researchat FTSE Russell, told CNBC about this trend. For instance, Brent crude for December delivery (meaning year-end/ long-dated level) is traded near $79.70 at the time of CNBC reporting. This year-end price level is about 17% below current prices, but about 10% higher than pre-war levels. This suggests that while markets anticipate an eventual normalization, they continue to factor in the impact of the Iran war damage. ETFs in Focus Against this backdrop, investors should closely track energy exploration ETFs like State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE and MLP ETFs like Alerian MLP ETF AMLP. AMLP ETF yields as high as 7.44% annually. If the Iran conflicts end soon, these ETFs may fall but not to the pre-war level. With MLPs offering high current income, the segment can offer good buying opportunities in the present scenario. On the other hand, extremely energy-dependent country ETFs like iShares India 50 ETF INDY may reel under pressure for longer than expected. Boost Your Portfolio with Our Top ETF Insights Zacks' exclusive Fund Newsletter delivers actionable information, top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, straight to your inbox every week. Don’t miss out on this valuable resource. It’s free!Get it now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE): ETF Research Reports Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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