Summary

If President Donald Trump makes good on his threat to pull funding from military drills with South Korea, the United States would gain little while eroding trust in Seoul and other key allies in the region, South Korean analysts warn. In a Truth Social post Tuesday, Trump said he was unhappy with the "costly" exercises and that he had directed Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to significantly reduce them, touting his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump also pointed out that South Korea had rejected his request to send military forces to assist the U.S. in its "denuclearization" of Iran. Trump met with Kim three times during his first term in a failed bid to walk back his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. The president has said he remains open to another meeting. A Concession to Kim? Trump's post came as the American and South Korean militaries launched the 10-day Ulchi Freedom Shield, an annual exercise to prepare for a possible conflict with Pyongyang. North Korea's Foreign Ministry characterized Ulchi Freedom Shield as a rehearsal for a war of aggression. Kim's regime is in a stronger position than it was during Trump's last face-to-face with Kim in 2019. The country tests ever more advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles. It continues its buildout of nuclear facilities, even enshrining its nuclear capability in its constitution. And veterans of the Russia-Ukraine war have gained valuable experience in modern warfare they could bring to bear if hostilities resume on the Korean Peninsula. Trump's decision to scale back the exercises, which Hegseth has labeled a model ally, shows Washington to be a "fickle and unreliable" partner, Sean King, an Asia scholar and senior vice president at New York-based consultancy Park Strategies, told Newsweek. "Kim Jong Un—and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping for that matter—now have further evidence of how much they can separate Trump from traditional U.S. allies with flattery and very little substance in return," he said. "Trump is, in some ways, doing their job for them." "And if he's worried about Iran, he should remember Tehran has few better friends than the Kim regime," King added. The two countries have for decades shared missile components and data on test flights, and Pyongyang is believed to have supplied missiles that served as blueprints for Iran's own. Newsweek reached out to the White House and North Korean Embassy in Washington, D.C., by email with requests for comment. Mixed Signals Across the Pacific Trump's critics have frequently accused him of cozying up to strongman leaders including Kim, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping while disparaging close European allies. The Truth Social post came as Japan-based USS George Washington sails for the Middle East, leaving the Western Pacific temporarily without an American aircraft carrier. While the Pentagon's top policy official, Elbridge Colby, sought to reassure allies just days earlier that the U.S. was "digging in" on its commitment to regional security, both allies and adversaries are likely to take note of the mixed signals coming out of Washington. "This is particularly damaging at a moment when U.S. military assets are already being diverted from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East," Kuyoun Chung, assistant professor of political science at Kangwon National University and non-resident fellow at the Asan Institute of Policy Studies, told Newsweek. "Allies such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines—and even Taiwan—may begin asking whether statements of reassurance from senior Pentagon officials can actually constrain presidential decisions." Kim's Takeaway In Pyongyang, the signal is clear: pressure works when it comes to the Trump presidency, South Korean experts say. "One of its longstanding demands is being partially accommodated without Pyongyang first offering a major concession. That could encourage Kim to wait for additional U.S. concessions rather than rush back to negotiations," Chung said. This willingness to forgo leverage could be viewed by Kim as an overture for a potential fourth summit, one that is—if anything—less likely to result in nuclear concessions than before but that may tick a domestic priority of Trump's with no victory over Iran in the sight. "He believes that it is about time to create conditions to make it happen in a situation where he needs diplomatic achievements to offset the failure of the Middle East," Ban Kil Joo, assistant professor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a South Korean government-funded think tank, told Newsweek. But at the same time, Trump's directive could embolden North Korea and its revisionist partners Russia and China to miscalculate, posing a greater challenge to international security, Ban warned. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Feng and Cristina Diciu.