ConflictClarifier

2026伊朗-海湾危机追踪
CC
Events Archive
strikeApr 14, 2026

Oil Pulls Back as IEA Cuts Demand Outlook | OilPrice.com

Summary

Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks. Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge - The first days of the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports have so far been largely uneventful as several Iran-linked tankers managed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without any interference. - At the same time, most of tankers were moving into the Persian Gulf and so far only two ships managed to move out of the Gulf since Monday afternoon, with no Iranian crude shipments seen so far. - Tehran might be wary of sending crude tankers through the Hormuz, potentially to be intercepted by the US Navy, claiming they’ll temporarily pause shipments before the next round of talks. - Pakistani sources indicate that this weekend could see another round of US-Iranian negotiations after the first round of Islamabad talks on April 11-12 yielded no results. - Average daily transits through the Hormuz before the war averaged 135 per day, falling to 8-10 transits per day in April so far. - The lack of diplomatic progress and Trump’s declared counter-blockade have started to push freight rates up again, with Gulf-China VLCC charter rates now rebounding above $80/tonne, the equivalent of $11/barrel. Market Movers - Italy's oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has announced the discovery of commercial reserves of natural gas with its 1-4/16 exploration well offshore Libya, some 95 km from the country's coast in the Pelagian Basin. - UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has agreed to purchase stakes in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia, marking its entry to the nascent oil producer, farming into plays operated by frontier driller Eco Atlantic. - US oil services giant Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) said it would sell its unit, Waygate Technologies, to Sweden-based Hexagon for $1.45 billion in cash, continuing its strategy of divesting non-core assets. - French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has signed a preliminary agreement with Turkey's TPAO to explore the country's Black Sea waters for oil, only three years after pulling out of gas exploration in adjacent Bulgaria's offshore. - Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another deepwater discovery in the Campos Basin some 200 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, finding commercial reserves of oil within Block-C-M-477. Tuesday, April 14, 2026 The IEA’s drastic slashing of 2026 global demand growth and the awkward lull in US-Iran confrontation have pushed oil prices lower so far this week, with ICE Brent back at trading several dollars below the $100 per barrel mark. Unless the US blockade of the Arabian Sea turns to a kinetic phase over the upcoming days, the second round of Islamabad talks will shape the futures curve of crude oil. Chevron Expands Its Footprint in Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will increase its stake in Venezuela's Petroindependencia project from 34% to 49%, whilst also getting an unspecified stake in the newly formed Ayacucho joint venture with PDVSA, boosting its outlook profile in the country. IEA Warns of a Giant Wave of Demand Destruction. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will contract this year by 80,000 b/d, the first annual decline in consumption since the COVID-19 peak year of 2020, down more than 700,000 b/d compared to last month's forecast. China's Appetite for Saudi Oil Wanes. Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has received the lowest volume of monthly nominations from Chinese term buyers in history, with only 18 million barrels of China-bound oil expected to load in May, dropping by 750,000 b/d from April. Oman Offers New Exploration Blocks. Benefitting from a reputation boost after the US-Iran war has largely left its upstream industry unscathed, the government of Oman is now offering 5 concession areas in the eastern and central parts of the Middle Eastern country, covering a total of 53,275 km2. China Continues to Import Oil, Despite Iran War. China's crude oil imports averaged 11.77 million b/d in March, only 2.8% lower year-over-year despite the loss of most Middle Eastern supplies, even though refinery utilization rates have dipped below 70% Related: Trump Signals High Gas Prices Through November Midterms Philippines Seeks US Waiver on Russian Imports. The Philippines' Ministry of Energy has asked the US Treasury Department for a waiver to continue importing Russian crude oil and petroleum products, claiming that the country needs more 'options' to maintain stable energy supplies. India Hints at Further Hormuz Passages Ahead. The Indian government said that it had ‘good contacts' with Iranian authorities on potential passage of Indian ships via the Strait of Hormuz, after at least 8 India-flagged vessels have managed to leave the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran war started. BP's New CEO Eyes Splitting of Company into Two. BP's new chief executive Meg O'Neill is considering splitting the UK-based energy giant into two units, creating a business focused solely on oil and gas exploration and another covering refining, distribution and retail operations. Methanol Tanker Breaks Trump's Hormuz Blockade. An Iran-linked but Chinese-owned tanker carrying methanol to China became the first ship moving out of the Persian Gulf to breach the Trump administration's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, lowering risks of immediate escalation in the seas. Financial Organizations Warn Against Energy Hoarding. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank launched a joint call against hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls on commodities, claiming protectionist measures exacerbate the impact of the Hormuz Strait closure. Brazil Wants Its Refinery Back. Brazil's state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is reportedly in initial talks with Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala to repurchase the 300,000 b/d Mataripe refinery, sold five years ago for $1.7 billion, claiming it is running at only 60% of its capacity. India Buys Its 1st Iranian Cargoes Since 2019. India's largest state-owned refiner IOC purchased the country's first Iranian oil cargo in seven years, with the Curacao-flagged Jaya tanker delivering 2 million barrels of oil to the port of Odisha, with privately owned Reliance taking a similar VLCC cargo to Sikka. Russia Imposes Export Controls on Helium. Following the loss of Qatari helium supply for the next 1-2 years, the global chipmaking industry is facing shortages of a key component for chip lithography as Russia has imposed export controls, potentially taking 10% of global supply off the market. Dr. Copper Hopes for a Quick End to War. Copper prices climbed to their highest in more than a month after Iran confirmed its readiness for second-round negotiations with the United States, with the benchmark three-month ME contract trading above $13,180/tonne on hopes of a potential deal. By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com - Oil Soars 7%, OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast As Trump Moves to Block Iran Ports - EU Considers Lower Energy Taxes as Hormuz Crisis Drives Costs Higher - BP Joins Shell and TotalEnergies in Namibia's Offshore Rush

Actors involved

USIranEURussiaChina

Sources

  • Tom KoolBy Tom Kool

    Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks. Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge - The first days of the US block

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem
strikeUnverifiedUSIranChina
1 source

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Turkish bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, alleging it facilitated the transfer of Iranian oil revenues into cash and gold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated these measures are part of "Operation Economic Outcast," an initiative launched following more than six months of conflict to pressure Iran.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranEURussiaChinaUkraineHamas
1 source

Rabobank reported that geopolitical developments, including Russian statements regarding potential peace talks in Ukraine and US-Iran hostilities, continue to dominate market sentiment, though analysts noted these claims remain unverified. The bank also cited unconfirmed reports that South Korea may deploy forces to the Strait of Hormuz and that Israel has stated regime change in Tehran is a primary objective, while noting that Ukrainian media reports of an impending northern Russian offensive lack independent verification.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranRussiaUkraine
1 source

The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran