ConflictClarifier

2026伊朗-海湾危机追踪
CC
Events Archive
strikeAug 4, 2026

Oil shortages escalate from wars in Iran and Ukraine, with few signs of relief

Summary

The global energy crisis triggered by two wars is set to worsen, as Ukraine pummels Russia’s refining industry and Iranian attacks continue on Middle Eastern oil production and refining. Further, the nature of the destruction and the growing number of fronts and warring parties involved may herald a new era of extended vulnerability for countries that depend on imports for their energy. Throughout most of modern history, wars have targeted energy infrastructure, including oil wells, refineries, pipelines, export terminals and power plants. But the latest weapons technology – autonomous drones and automated seafaring vessels – are defeating existing defense systems. The resulting damage is increasing the threat that crucial oil shipping lanes around the world may be slowed or stopped for long periods of time, and not just in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The world has been able to muddle through the first few months of the Iran war, but the earliest efforts to keep oil markets balanced are running out of time. First, there were shipments of Middle Eastern oil that had already moved through the Strait of Hormuz before it was closed, which arrived in ports across the world in March and April 2026. Then a group of governments released strategic stocks of oil to the market, while some countries adopted oil conservation policies such as shifting to remote work. At the same time, refining capacity – the facilities that convert crude oil into products, such as diesel fuel and gasoline – has been extremely compromised. Goldman Sachs is estimating that globally, the refining deficit – including bombed Russian refineries and products that cannot exit the Strait of Hormuz or the Black Sea – totals 6.5 million barrels a day. Now, as more energy infrastructure gets destroyed, preventing a deeper crisis will be harder to achieve. And winter isn’t all that far away. The growing war in the Middle East Attacks by Iran and its proxies, often using aerial drones, have created widespread, lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure. For instance, more than 1.2 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity across the region is out of operation due to physical damage, according to J.P. Morgan. The conflict continues to escalate. For instance, on July 27, drones reportedly launched from southern Iraq by Iranian-aligned militants hit crude processing towers at the critical Saudi oil production hub of Abqaiq. Similar attacks by Iran in 2019 sharply reduced Saudi Arabia’s ability to produce oil. Saudi crude oil and refined petroleum product exports are also hindered by attacks on shipping through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits. A U.S.-Saudi military response against the Iraqi militias raised tensions that the war might spread. And on July 30, drone attacks on an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean Sea signaled that another area might be vulnerable to the widening war. Since early in the war, Saudi Arabia has depended on the Mediterranean for its oil exports, sending 5 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia In its war against Russia, Ukraine’s mastery of long-range drones has resulted in successful bombing of over 11 major Russian refining complexes, knocking out a significant share of Russia’s fuel-making capability. Estimates vary from somewhere between 30% and 50% to as high as 60% of the nation’s refining capacity. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s refining system are primarily intended to harm Moscow’s war effort by limiting military fuel supplies and war funding from exports of refined products. Yet online images show Russian drivers sitting in cars for hours waiting to get a few gallons of fuel. The attacks have also led Russia to ban diesel fuel exports – which, before 2022, supplied half of Europe’s diesel. Ripple effects, including hunger In addition to blocking crude oil shipments, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the flow of about 20% of the world’s supply of liquefied petroleum gas. That is a hard-to-replace cooking fuel widely used in India and China, among other countries. As far back as April 2026, people in India were having trouble finding and affording gas with which to cook, forcing them to skip meals. India is looking to increase the volume of liquefied petroleum gas it buys from the U.S. to ease shortages. Other pressures are also closing in on the world’s petroleum supplies from other directions. Seaborne drones launched by Ukraine in the Black Sea have at least temporarily blocked most crude oil exports from Kazakhstan, which needs that waterway to ship its oil to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond. Houthi separatists in Yemen used aerial drones to close off the southern end of the Red Sea in the early 2020s, blocking a key alternate route for oil shipments around the Strait of Hormuz. They are reportedly set to do so again. Those technologies and tactics are spreading to other oil-rich regions of the globe. For instance, separatists in Colombia used drones to attack oil production equipment in late July. Possibilities for hope? Since the Iran war started, China’s imports of crude oil and petroleum-related products have dropped by about 3.6 million barrels per day, roughly one-third of its prewar imports. In fact, Chinese refiners actually started reselling crude oil in global markets to earn money to make up for reduced activity in Chinese refineries. One explanation is China is tapping its strategic oil reserves, but it is also possible that an economic slowdown, combined with the country’s massive build-out of alternative fuels and renewables, is curbing the need for imported oil-based fuel. Chinese petrochemical firms are also buying ethane from the U.S. to replace cut-off supplies from the Middle East. On the supply side, in Brazil, production by government-owned oil company Petrobras is up 14% over 2025 levels and is operating refineries at full capacity. As a result, its import needs have dropped substantially, offering some relief to markets in the Americas. Venezuelan oil production has risen from 937,000 barrels a day in 2025 to 1.2 million barrels a day in mid-2026. Most of that increase is from oil companies that were operating in Venezuela before the U.S. removed former President Nicolás Maduro. A few new deals to buy Venezuelan oil have been signed, but the flood of investment the Trump administration hoped for has yet to materialize. Venezuela’s laws and political instability are making companies wary, and some are still seeking repayments from when their assets were seized by then-President Hugo Chávez in 2009. Risks of inflation and long-term vulnerability For now, rising oil and gas production and refinery output in the United States has shielded Americans from significant petroleum shortages. But there are many ways in which that situation could change. Worsening global supply disruptions could eventually translate into higher market prices on a wide range of goods and commodities, which would push U.S. inflation rates higher. Ultimately, the new methods of drone-based warfare against energy facilities and shipping are a major national security concern for the U.S. and all major economies that rely on energy shipments and imports of other goods to underpin their economies. Countries will now need to work toward energy security in a world with insecure global sea lanes, more extreme weather and expanded geopolitical conflict. Having researched and tracked the geopolitics of global energy markets for decades, I expect that those efforts will focus on determining what energy sources each country has within its own borders. And given the geographical and geological limits of fossil fuels, I anticipate more countries will seek to accelerate the already speedy development of renewable energy like wind and solar power to minimize the risks of wars interrupting their energy supply.

Actors involved

USIranProxyRussiaChinaUkraine

Sources

  • Amy Myers JaffeBy Amy Myers Jaffe

    The global energy crisis triggered by two wars is set to worsen, as Ukraine pummels Russia’s refining industry and Iranian attacks continue on Middle Eastern oil production and refining. Further, the nature of the destruction and the growing number of fronts and warring parties i

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

- Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that future attacks on Iran would receive a “faster, heavier, and more painful” response. - U.S. Central Command said American forces struck three Iranian crude carriers after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched missiles toward two U.

S. Navy warships. - Ghalibaf also acknowledged "fundamental challenges" such as inflation, unemployment and exchange-rate volatility as Iran faces sanctions and disruptions to its oil trade. Iran's "proportionate responses" to U.S. attacks are over, the country's parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Sunday, while acknowledging the economic impact of the war.

"If they haven't understood by now, they should understand before it's too late that the rules of the game have changed and that from now on, any violation of Iran's interests and security will receive a 'faster, heavier, and more painful' response," Ghalibaf said in a post on Telegram.

But Ghalibaf added that alongside the military conflict, Iran faces severe economic pressures. "Severe fluctuations in the exchange rate, inflation, unemployment, and market management are fundamental challenges that have put serious pressure on people's livelihoods," Ghalibaf said.

He also stressed the need to rely more on domestic production and use technology to "devise short-term and permanent solutions." Ghalibaf's remarks come after U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers. U.S. Central Command said it permanently disabled one crude oil carrier off the coast of Kharg Island and one near Jask.

Another oil tanker was attacked in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM said the attacks were in retaliation for ballistic missiles the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched toward two Navy warships in the region. According to CENTCOM, a U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple attacks, and no American personnel were harmed.

"Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours," Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, said in a statement Saturday. "We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet.

" Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth later wrote in a post on X: "It's simple: if Iran shoots at U.S. ships, we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers. All they have to do is not shoot at @USNavy." Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and exported 90% of its crude via Kharg Island before the war.

Flows have been disrupted by a U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports, which began in mid-April. The conflict between Iran and the U.S. has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the world's oil supply before the war began on Feb. 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in June to seize Kharg Island as the U.S. continued military strikes against Iran. Most recently, on Aug. 31, he posted an artificial intelligence-generated video of Kharg Island being blown up. Tightening sanctions The strike on the oil tankers came a day after the Treasury Department announced sanctions against a small Turkish investment bank and two of its subsidiaries, which the U.

S. accuses of facilitating funds for an arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The measures are part of sweeping sanctions the Trump administration launched in late August targeting Iran's access to digital assets, advanced technology procurement, gold reserves, commercial aviation and shipping.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said late last month that the country's trade has fallen sharply. Iran's gross domestic product is estimated to have contracted by 2.7% in the year ending March, according to the World Bank, citing economic disruption from last year's widespread protests and intensified hostilities in the region.

Inflation surged to 62.2% in February, with food price inflation reaching a historical high of 99%, according to the World Bank. An Iranian official estimated that the war has caused the loss of one million jobs, according to the New York Times.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

US and Iran trade strikes as tensions escalate amid renewed conflict - US Central Command has struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near the Kharg Island export hub, after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy vessels.

- Admiral Brad Cooper declared that the US would exact a higher economic cost for attacks on its ships, confirming that no American personnel were harmed during the strike. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated by threatening further attacks on US military ships, claiming to have targeted three US-linked vessels and three tankers navigating unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

- The Iranian Red Crescent has requested an International Criminal Court investigation into a suspected US strike on an Iranian wedding that left at least five people dead, accusing Washington of war crimes. - The recent exchanges represent a dangerous deepening of the wider conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has flared repeatedly since initial strikes in February.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Iran attacks naval drone near Hormuz after US strikes 3 oil tankers The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in the six-month war Iran said on Sunday that its forces attacked a US naval drone trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, hours after targeting ships in retaliation for American strikes on three oil tankers.

The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in their six-month war. Iran has maintained its stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz while Washington continues a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Washington is also seeking to choke Iran’s economy, rolling out sanctions on entities with financial links to the Islamic Republic in a bid to force it into submission.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ideological arm of Iran’s military, said on Sunday it “attacked an American military unmanned surface vessel” attempting to enter the strait, according to a statement carried by state television. Hours earlier, the IRGC said its naval forces “targeted three oil tankers on the unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz and three vessels affiliated with the child-killing America in other areas”.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

The Pentagon reportedly subjected approximately 50 military officers and civilian employees on the US Joint Staff to polygraph tests in August as part of an internal investigation into suspected leaks of classified information to journalists during the war with Iran.

The investigation reportedly focused on media disclosures concerning the state of US ammunition and weapons stocks, particularly reports that the conflict had depleted supplies of long-range missiles and Patriot air-defence interceptors. Investigators sought to determine whether Joint Staff personnel had provided classified information to members of the media and identify the sources of the disclosures, as per media reports.

ALSO READ: US, Iran Locked In Fresh Counter Strikes After Vessel Attacks Off Hormuz And Kharg Island The Joint Staff, which includes roughly 1,500 to 2,000 personnel, assists senior military leadership with operations, policy and war planning. The reported testing involved both uniformed officers and civilian employees, while senior leadership, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen.

Dan Caine, was reportedly not subjected to the tests. The unusually broad use of polygraph examinations has drawn attention from former military officials, with retired Rear Adm. Donald J. Guter describing the reported scale and seniority of the testing as unprecedented in his experience.

“I've never seen polygraphs employed this broadly or at this seniority level,” said Guter. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell declined to comment specifically on the investigation but said the Defense Department takes unauthorized disclosures of classified national-security information extremely seriously.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not held a press briefing on the Iran war since May 5 and has increasingly restricted media access at the Pentagon. ALSO READ: CENTCOM Hits Three Iranian Oil Carriers After Attack On US Warships The reported crackdown comes amid heightened tensions between the Pentagon and the media, as well as pressure from President Donald Trump, who has rejected reports of serious U.

S. ammunition shortages and criticized disclosures about weapons availability during the Iran conflict. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.

Location: Iran