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strikeJun 9, 2026

Trump keeps forecasting an Iran deal — why the White House still thinks it can happen

Summary

President Donald Trump is continuing to project confidence that a final nuclear agreement with Iran remains within reach despite months of slow-moving diplomacy, unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment and a ceasefire that appeared at risk of unraveling over the weekend. "We're in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal," Trump told reporters after attending the third game of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden, adding that it would come in "two or three days." Trump has suggested dozens of times over the past two months that a deal is just around the corner, yet little public evidence has emerged that the sides have bridged the core disputes that have complicated negotiations. Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the president has said a deal was close at least 38 times, according to a CNN count. Despite months of predictions that a deal was imminent, negotiations remain publicly deadlocked over uranium enrichment, sanctions relief and Iran's growing stockpile of enriched uranium. Yet administration officials and outside analysts say a combination of economic pressure on Iran, a fragile but surviving ceasefire and the high costs of renewed conflict may explain why Trump continues to believe an agreement is achievable. TRUMP, NETANYAHU TO MEET AT WHITE HOUSE IN HIGH-STAKES TALKS ON IRAN, GAZA PLAN In May alone, Trump said a deal as "largely negotiated," later suggested he was making a "final determination" and now says an agreement could arrive within days. Former National Security Council official Michael Singh said Trump's confidence likely reflects both the president's negotiating style and the reality that neither Washington nor Iran appears eager to abandon diplomacy despite recent military exchanges. "Projecting optimism is part of President Trump's MO," Singh told Fox News Digital, adding that despite recent military exchanges, "we don't see either side really pursuing any alternative with any kind of determination. In announcing the ceasefire April 7, Trump said talks were "very far along" but it would take two weeks for "the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." "Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a ‘Final Deal’ is reached. Things should move quickly," Trump posted on Truth Social Monday. The optimism comes as negotiators remain divided over core elements of Iran's nuclear program and after fresh military exchanges briefly threatened to derail the fragile truce between Israel and Iran. "Iran is desperate to make a deal because of the historic successes of Operation Epic Fury, Operation Economic Fury, and the blockade. Talks on a deal that will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon are continuing at a rapid pace and are going very well," a White House official told Fox News Digital. "As the President stated, he will only make a good deal for the American people. He is not going to be rushed into making a bad deal. Due to the successes of Operation Epic Fury, Economic Fury, and the blockade, President Trump holds the cards and has all the time he needs to make the best deal for the United States and the world." Trump's confidence comes as Israel and Iran traded fire for the first time since a ceasefire took hold and after the president told the Financial Times Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a U.S.-brokered agreement with Iran. The ceasefire itself appeared shaky over the weekend following fresh exchanges between Israel and Iran, prompting Trump to publicly urge both sides to stand down and warning that further escalation could jeopardize ongoing negotiations. By Monday, however, both sides signaled a desire to avoid a broader confrontation. Netanyahu said Israel would "hold fire" following discussions with Trump, while Iran indicated its latest round of attacks had concluded absent further provocation. Singh said both sides appear to be trying to pressure one another into an agreement rather than preparing for a collapse in talks. WHY TRUMP, IRAN SEEM LIGHT-YEARS APART ON ANY POSSIBLE DEAL TO END THE WAR "It really does seem as though it's sort of down to the details," Singh said. "But of course the details can be quite hard." Negotiators continue to face fundamental disagreements over Iran's nuclear program despite months of talks. But analysts who see a path to a deal often point to the growing pressure facing Iran. Miad Maleki, a former Treasury Department sanctions official and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Iran is facing mounting economic and diplomatic pressure that could eventually force the regime to reconsider positions it has so far refused to abandon. "Every day that the blockade remains in place, Iran is getting closer to a complete economic collapse," Maleki told Fox News Digital, pointing to inflation, fuel shortages and growing economic strain inside the country. Maleki argued that Iran's position has deteriorated during the ceasefire, citing continued economic pressure, additional sanctions and the loss of senior regime figures during the conflict. "The regime is under severe pressure economically and diplomatically," he said. That pressure may help explain why administration officials continue to view diplomacy as a viable path despite the slow pace of progress. The Trump administration has maintained that Iran cannot be permitted to continue enriching uranium, arguing that even civilian enrichment capabilities could provide Iran with a pathway to a nuclear weapon. Iranian officials, meanwhile, insist they retain the right to enrich uranium for peaceful energy purposes and have resisted proposals requiring a permanent halt to enrichment activities on Iranian soil. Negotiators also have sparred over the fate of Iran's uranium stockpile. Before inspectors lost visibility into key facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated Iran possessed roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — just below weapons-grade levels and enough, if further enriched, for multiple nuclear weapons. Those unresolved disputes have fueled skepticism about whether a breakthrough is truly imminent. But Iran is not the only actor facing pressure to avoid renewed conflict. The conflict already has pushed energy prices higher and disrupted global shipping routes, with analysts warning that the economic fallout could persist for months even if maritime traffic resumes immediately. In a recent Fox News Digital interview, Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith said it could take until the fourth quarter of the year for global energy flows to normalize because of logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged infrastructure. Moody's Analytics has estimated the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion over the past three months through higher fuel, transportation and related costs. Trump's confidence has also coincided with increasingly public disagreements with Netanyahu about how to handle Iran. The president recently said Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a deal with Tehran, comments that fueled speculation about growing differences between Washington and Jerusalem. Ehud Eilam, a former researcher for Israel's Ministry of Defense, said Israel and the United States share the goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon but often approach the challenge from different strategic perspectives. "Iran poses a much bigger threat to Israel compared with the danger Iran presents to the United States," Eilam told Fox News Digital. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP Eilam also argued that Washington retains significant leverage over Israeli decision-making through military aid and weapons transfers. "The delivery of U.S. weapons and ammunition to Israel, now and later, gives the Trump administration major leverage to convince Israel to accept a deal with Iran," he said.

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  • Morgan PhillipsBy Morgan Phillips

    President Donald Trump is continuing to project confidence that a final nuclear agreement with Iran remains within reach despite months of slow-moving diplomacy, unresolved disputes over uranium enrichment and a ceasefire that appeared at risk of unraveling over the weekend. "We'

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PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday (Jul 21) that renewed fighting in the Mideast increases concerns over energy supplies but that the market still has cushions to absorb the impact. "The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

"For the moment, crude oil markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors," he added, pointing to increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes. However, Saudi Arabia's main alternative route of using a pipeline to load tankers in the Red Sea port of Yanbu is under threat as Iran's Yemeni allies, the Houthis, declared they would blockade Saudi Arabia's ports.

Oil markets have for months feared that the Houthis would return to attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden - as they did during the Gaza war - cutting off yet more crude from global markets. The initial market reaction to the announcement by the Houthis was restrained, however, as Iran indicated that mediation efforts were still underway, calming investor jitters.

"Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become increasingly important as a route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate these concerns further," said Birol, referring to the narrow passage between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA, in addition to advising its industrialised nation members, also helps them coordinate the release of their strategic oil reserves in reaction to market disruptions.

Birol noted that ongoing government releases from these reserves have provided considerable relief to markets, and that nations continue to hold ample reserves. However, he warned "there is no room for complacency on oil security" and pointed to a drawdown of available commercial inventories, with low refining activity contributing to a tighter supplies of refined oil products like petrol and diesel than for crude oil.

Birol noted that additional supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States and Canada have offset about 70 per cent of lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in resuming Gulf exports "will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter", he warned.

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US stock futures rose, with Nasdaq futures gaining 1.4% and S&P futures up 0.5% as of 7:20 a.m. ET, led by semiconductor stocks after gains in Japan and South Korea. A report indicated TSMC plans price increases, while overnight events included a Houthi-imposed blockade on Saudi Arabia amid tensions involving Iran.

Trading showed higher commodity prices, a steeper yield curve, and a flat dollar, with upcoming data releases including the ADP weekly employment change and Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index.

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Reports indicate ongoing US-Iran tensions into a tenth day, including a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping. US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian command, missile, and air defense sites, while Reuters reported mediator proposals for a 10-day ceasefire and statements from both sides outlining conditions for halting attacks.

Bloomberg data showed Hormuz transits reduced to six vessels as of Tuesday morning.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.