The IAEA stated it withdrew inspectors from Iran following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. It remains unclear if these strikes were unilaterally conducted or if further details regarding the incident's scope have been officially verified.

The U.S. military stated on Sunday that it had concluded a recent campaign of airstrikes against Iran, which included targeting the Revolutionary Guard. These actions were reportedly undertaken in response to an attack in Jordan that the U.S. said resulted in the deaths of American troops.

Trump's vow to escalate on Iran rings hollow amid warnings from top US generals US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to “hit [Iran] hard”, despite a report that the US’s top generals are warning that a prolonged large-scale war on Iran is unsustainable for the United States.

“There will be a response,” Trump told Fox News on Monday when asked about Iran’s attack on a US military base in Jordan following US strikes on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. “We’re going to hit them hard,” he said. Oil prices, which had been trending down amid a lull in fighting, spiked on Monday.

Brent, the international benchmark, was up 2.5 percent to trade at $90.35 per barrel. But Trump’s bombast contrasts with reports that the US is in no position to escalate the war. The heads of the US army, navy and air force, and the four-star commanders overseeing US operations throughout Europe, Asia and Latin America, warned Secretary of War Pete Hegseth that any prolonging of major operations would weaken the US’s ability to confront other foes, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Fighting flared in the Middle East after the US on Sunday launched strikes on what it said were two Iranian rocket launchers preparing to shoot sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran retaliated by launching strikes on Jordan. Jordan, which hosts US troops and aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, said it intercepted eight missiles. The strikes on Larak marked the first time in weeks of a publicly documented US attack on Iran.

The two sides have been locked in competing naval blockades over the Strait of Hormuz, but have generally withheld from striking each other outside the maritime space. Trump’s threat to escalate further follows his decision to share a social media post stating that Iran’s energy export hub, Kharg Island, would be “blown to smithereens”.

The Trump administration says it is keeping all options open, as negotiations with Iran on a return to the June ceasefire are effectively dead. Stark warning The warning from senior US generals was prompted by a 14 August order directing some US troops deployed in the Middle East to remain there through September and others into 2027.

Leaders of the US European Command, the US Pacific Command and the US Southern Command, along with the Navy’s top admiral, issued a “non-concur” response to Hegseth’s order, which means they will obey the order despite disagreeing with it, the Washington Post reported.

To prosecute its war on Iran, the Trump administration has surged military assets from Europe and East Asia to Central Command, which oversees US troops in the Middle East. The Associated Press reported earlier this month that the war on Iran has caused a "beyond critical" shortage of advanced missile interceptors, especially Patriots, which have been used to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles in the Ukraine war.

Tensions in Europe are high. CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow in part to warn Russian President Vladimir Putin against a potential attack on Nato members, the Wall Street Journal reported last week. Reuters has also reported that the US has exhausted its stockpile of sophisticated long-range missiles during the war on Iran.

The US has “virtually" used up its supply of surface-to-surface weapons, including ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), Reuters reported. Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond.

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Following a reported two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, ACLED experts have outlined potential regional impacts affecting Lebanon, the Gulf, Yemen, and Israel. These assessments are based on the latest available data regarding the ongoing conflict dynamics in these areas.