Claimed by U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (US Military)
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard assessed that Iran has sufficient fissile material for 3-4 nuclear devices and could produce a deployable weapon within 6-12 months if a political decision to weaponize were made.
Filed 4/5/2026
Partial
Neutral analysis
The material quantities are broadly supported by independent analysis, but the weaponization timeline involves classified assumptions about Iranian technical capability and political will that cannot be independently verified.
Verification notes
The fissile material quantity assessment is broadly consistent with independent analyses from the Federation of American Scientists and ISIS, which estimate sufficient HEU for 3-5 devices based on declared enrichment. The 6-12 month weaponization timeline is a classified estimate; open-source analysts give ranges from 3 months to 2 years.