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Iran War: Iran Rejects Trump Claims That Deal Is Near as US Counterproductively Toughens Terms; Hotter Tit-for-Tat Strikes Threaten Ceasefire; What if Trump Continues to Stall When Hitting Energy Cliff ? | naked capitalism | Iran-Gulf Crisis | ConflictClarifier

strikeJun 1, 2026

Iran War: Iran Rejects Trump Claims That Deal Is Near as US Counterproductively Toughens Terms; Hotter Tit-for-Tat Strikes Threaten Ceasefire; What if Trump Continues to Stall When Hitting Energy Cliff ? | naked capitalism

Summary

[Today’s Iran war post yet again launched before complete. Please check back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browser then for the finished product] Things are deceptively quiet on the Iran front, but that is only in comparison to the hot phase. Despite regular, bogus reports for Axios that a deal is nigh, the talks not only look to be at an impasse but if anything are going into reverse gear, as Trump has escalated his demands. Israel is continuing its campaign in Southern Lebanon and Netanyahu just ordered fresh strikes on the Dahiyeh district of Beirut1 The US is continuing to attack and provoke Iran despite the pretense of a ceasefire and Iran has been retaliating quickly. Trump’s conduct makes sense only as a manifestation of a mistaken belief that the US has leverage and can pressure Iran. And even though those in the reality-based community would regard that as nuts, Trump has more and more been acting in an insistently grandiose manner, that contradicting the lesson of King Canute, that he really can order the ocean about. And he’s gotten some reinforcement on that front with his great success in manipulating paper oil prices to be much lower than where real world prices are and set to go if the war remains at its present impasse. Admittedly, as we’ll show below, Trump has chosen to live in a polluted information environment, having forced out anti-war experts, binge-watching Zionist-central Fox News, and spending way too much time with deluded hawks like Lindsey Graham and Laura Loomer. But Trump also has a propensity to make wild punches as he stall for time in the hope that he can open up new options. But this conduct works against him. It only proves the Iranian hardliners right, that the only way they can reach a settlement with the US is if the US has to take concrete action before (or if possible, at the same time) as Iran take de-escalatory steps. But Trump has made that impossible with his continued ferocious demonization of Iran. It would already be politically extremely difficult for, say, the US to release $12 billion of frozen assets to Iran or remove its blockade as a condition of Iranian action. Trump’s very hard verbal line has lashed him to the mast of this war. It may be that Trump still plans to renew the war for a brief but intense period even though, with summer heat widespread in the Gulf region, that would seem to rule out Special Forces operations. It’s hard to quick, surgical analogue to the Maduro kidnapping that would succeed as a mission, let alone do anything more than increase Iranian resolve. But contrary to that, even as of last week, the US was moving more refuelers into the theater. Recall that in Venezuela, commentators were almost frustrated with all the naval assets Trump kept parked nearby for so long. The US and Israel can still engage in another round of major bombing, not that that would change anything save risking Iran launching counterstrikes that would assure a global depression. However, another set of bad outcomes is possible. Trump may refuse to either settle with Iran or exit. He could keep the blockade in place and launch occasional “See who is the man!” strikes. Escalation expert Robert Pape has repeatedly described how in his classic escalation trap, the side that has gotten itself in a hole still has strong incentives to keep going up the escalation ladder. Taking a certain loss looks worse than gambling on a low-odds win. Pape further argues that either a settlement with Iran (with Iran unwilling to engage in any face-saving concessions) or walking away would cost Trump the backing of some of his base, which was deeply invested in his macho image….even before getting to what sort of revenge the Zionists might try to inflict. But the only escalation step that Trump seems to have left is another bombing campaign in Iran (or perhaps more Israeli decapitation operations), which risks Iran obliterating the global economy by hitting Gulf State energy infrastructure. And that may be thwarted not just due to the cost to the US’ remaining weapons stockpiles but also at least some Gulf States denying the US use of their airspace.2 So what if he tries to stand pat, based on yet more bad advice from the boot-lickers around him, that the Iran economy is on the verge of collapse, and things are so bad that the public will soon rise up and overthrow the government? What if a standoff persists into July, when the US is predicted to go off the energy cliff and experience a big increase in gas and diesel prices, as well as start suffering shortages and/or big price hikes in petrochemical dependent products? And let us not forget that higher food prices are baked in, but the worst is not likely to set in until later 2026 and 2027? One can almost draft new Trump talking points as energy prices jump up in July, that the pain is worth it, that prices will plunge once the US prevails. I still see too many signs of normalcy bias, of explicit assumptions that this staredown will have to end because most people refuse to consider not merely that a cataclysmic outcome is possible but would also engulf them. We’ll turn briefly at the end to the AI bubble, since Trump trying to stand pat with Iran could accelerate its demise. AI spending already looks to be at risk due to users finding major shortfalls on performance v. promises, plus AI company attempts to impose pricing that would come close to reflecting service costs producing big cuts in use as the expenses are staggeringly high. That is before getting to how thes deteriorating fundamentals interact with higher capital costs and even scarcity. Most people forget that unlike every other big tech play in recent decades, AI is asset heavy. It requires ginormous capital outlays. The Iran war will (at best!) produce stagflation. Fundraising for big projects becomes difficult.3 And in particular, the Gulf States had been major investors. Do you think AI will get anywhere near as much money from them when rebuilding their infrastructure is a competing, big ticket priority? This tweet unintentionally reinforces our conclusion: that Trump will not settle or end the war, which means the Strait of Hormuz being throttled will continue even after the US goes over the energy cliff: 🚨 The Geopolitics of the Middle East: The Hidden Symbols of the “Deferred Battle” Anyone following the developments in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran will find that the situation has reached a complex stage; the picture currently appears foggy and unclear. To clarify the picture… pic.twitter.com/BQiyIl8BTl — 🇸🇦Abdulsalam Saleh (@abdulslam2017) May 31, 2026 The key section is at the end: Conclusion: Where is the situation heading? The situation is heading toward a political settlement, but not one imposed by Trump, rather one crafted by the countries of the region: peace that is not traded for normalization, security that is not imported from Washington, and a future that is not written in American war rooms. The war in Tehran is over, but the real confrontation continues in the waterways. And water, as everyone knows, cannot be controlled by Washington alone. If this assessment proves to be accurate, it means a resolution will be far away. Multilateral agreements are very hard to consummate and often fail. Keep in mind that too many observers assume more rationality and capability in the White House when it does not exist: Even before getting to Trump’s cognitive impairment, he is massively out of his depth and his ego prevents him from finding and relying on sound advisers: Trump now finds himself in an entirely new situation with the War in Iran. He doesn't hold the cards. He has no notable leverage. And he can't simply declare bankruptcy for the seventh time and move on. And it shows. Donald Trump is not a statesman. He is not a diplomat. And I… — Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) May 31, 2026 And Trump’s lack of self control and tendency to surround himself war-mongering manipulators has only gotten worse: Barnes: I’ll give an example that’s outside of this whole context. He gave a speech where he Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis talked about this. He gave a speech where he talked about meeting Mr. Toyota. And then he met Mr. Toyota and then Mr. Toyota was going to make this huge investment in the US. Well, Mr. Toyota been dead for years. And that you know, there was a possibility of the Toyota company making investment, but they hadn’t even agreed to. But you can tell with the way he related he really believed it happened. It’s that and that kind of thing happens daily in the White House. And they just try to keep limits on Trump doing it in front of everybody. The and so it’s not be it’s because it’s not cognitive, you don’t see it the way you saw it with Joe Biden….. Barnes: Joe Kent of course left in protest cuz and the reason why he Kent left in protest was because he was being excluded. And this was on Trump. Trump would decide like every single night he told a friend of mine right at the at the White House over lunch That he he talks to Sean Hannity every single night. He talks to Laura Loomer quite frequently. Nawfal: That is wild. He talks to Laura Loomer? He talks to Laura Loomer regularly. Barnes: The There’s other rumors I won’t get into, but let’s just say if you want to be good friends with Melania, don’t hang out with Laura Loomer. The So, you know, the and he talks to Lindsey Graham on a regular basis. I mean, a guy he made fun of for years, for decades, especially on foreign policy. Nawfal: But why why why is he talking to those people? That one I don’t understand. But does that have to do with behavioral… What is it? Not cognitive behavior, early stage behavioral dementia. That has nothing to do with dementia. Dementia, you don’t just pick the wrong people to speak to. Barnes: They tell him what he wants to hear. That’s the dynamic. So, in other words, it plays like think of like a 2-year-old’s ego. I have my 2-year-old grandson. I was watching him run around and realized how much he behaves kind of like Trump does currently. And And not only in the filter, but in sort of I want my ego satisfied right now. So, tell me how great I am. Tell me how smart this is. Tell me how brilliant this is. Tell me how genius this is. I mean, there was a week in the White House where he excluded Vance because he was mad that Vance was right about everything that was going wrong in Iran. Now, since then, he’s brought Vance back in cuz he understands Vance is one of a few people that can get him out of this. But then he rug pulls Vance repeatedly…. He gets mad if you share any information he doesn’t want to hear. And that’s why the second opinions he’s getting are exclusively promoting further entanglement in the war. They gave him fake intel. Now, Hegs=death is the I have to give Max Blumenthal credit for coming up with that nickname for him. He’s the only He was feeding false information that was so bad. That’s why underlings of the Pentagon started leaking to the press….it got so bad that Trump wasn’t listening… Nawfal: I’ve heard that many times before. The best way to get to the president is to come on the Fox News at the right time. That’s the best way to get his ear. Barnes: Yep. Or get your story in the front page of the New York He obsessively reads the New York Times to this day. No matter how many He’ll get mad and he’ll get agitated, but every morning he starts his morning with the New York Times. Now to the updates proper. This tweet illustrates the point Robert Pape has been making, of the importance to Trump’s base of continued attempts to defend his manhood: 🚨 JUST IN: President Trump is now making MORE AMERICA FIRST DEMANDS in the Iran deal, "holding the line" against the mullahs The Fake News AGAIN lied that he's "caving" 47 is holding out strong! "Trump is demanding several amendments to the proposed agreement during a… pic.twitter.com/4KLDmV4ZWq — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 31, 2026 Nevertheless: Holy crap. There’s no deal if he’s saying this.Good grief. https://t.co/Y76OoeL9rQ — Brandon Weichert (@WeTheBrandon) May 31, 2026 The opening section of this Janta Ka segment gives a good high level view of Team Trump misrepresentations about progress: It is not hard to find other denials from Iran ceding ground to Trump, such as one from PressTV. Iran is sticking to its guns on sequencing, as in no discussion of nuclear issues in the first phase, making Trump bluster about enriched uranium moot. From Iran nuclear issue off table; talks with US focus on ending war: Lawmaker An Iranian lawmaker says ongoing talks with the United States are focused on ending the war and preventing a renewed aggression, adding that Iran’s nuclear issue is no longer part of the negotiations. Esmail Kowsari, a member of Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, told Russia Today that the nuclear issue has been removed from the agenda of discussions with the US. He said discussions are currently focused on preventing the recurrence of a war, securing compensation, ensuring the withdrawal of American forces from the region, and lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships. He, however, expressed skepticism about the prospects for a final agreement, adding that negotiations are continuing between Tehran and Washington but have yet to produce tangible results…. “We must make sure the other side fulfills its commitments before moving to the next stage, because we do not trust the United States,” the Iranian lawmaker emphasized…. He cited the US-Israeli dictates as among the main reasons behind the failure to reach an agreement with Iran. Kowsari also reiterated that Iran would maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that many countries have accepted Tehran’s authority over the strategic waterway. Iran is also refusing to give ground to the US on its Gulf of Hormuz demands, creating another basic outtrade. From Bloomberg in US Says Deals With Iran for Safe Hormuz Transit Are Prohibited : - The US said deals with Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz are not allowed, even if no payment is made. - The US Treasury warned that US persons are prohibited from receiving services from the Government of Iran, including services related to a guarantee of safe passage. - The US Office of Foreign Assets Control has designated the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which Iran created to collect tolls, pursuant to counterterrorism authorities, and warned of sanctions risks for having dealings with it. Not surprisingly, Iran is not impressed. From Aljazeera’s live feed: Only Iran, Oman have right to ‘exercise sovereignty’ over Hormuz: Iran’s deputy foreign minister Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi says Iran and Oman are the only two countries that have a right to “exercise sovereignty” in the Strait of Hormuz. In comments carried by Iran’s IRIB broadcaster, Gharibabadi said Iran has implemented a new process for “controlling traffic and navigation” in the waterway but arrangements are coordinated with Oman. He said Iran has urged Oman to “not give in to” threats from the US after Trump threatened to “blow up” the country if it does not “behave just like everybody else” with respect to the strait. And from the live feed in the last half hour: IRGC claims 15 ships passed Hormuz with its permission in past 24 hours Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy has said that a total of 15 ships, including four oil tankers, have passed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. In a statement shared by Iran’s Fars news agency, the navy claimed the ships transited after receiving permission and coordinating with it. The organisation warned that it would view any form of cooperation by vessels with “hostile forces” as an “immenent security threat” to be “dealt with accordingly”. So how many, if any, will the US try to get return or seize? On the kinetic front, the temperature if anything is increasing, even before getting to the Israel escalation in Lebanon.4 From AlJazeera’s live feed: - The US military says it attacked Iranian radar and drone sites in the city of Goruk and the island of Qeshm over the weekend. - Kuwait reports “hostile” missile and drone attacks, as Iran’s IRGC says it launched a retaliatory strike on a base it claims was used for an attack on its Sirik Island. US and Iran now openly trading strikes mid-“ceasefire.” CENTCOM confirmed “self-defense strikes” on Iranian radar/drone command sites at Goruk and Qeshm over the weekend, plus a Sirik (Bandar Sirik) telecom tower; IRGC says it then hit the airbase the attack launched from…. Iran ballistic missile hits a US base in Kuwait. Reported direct hit near Ali Al Salem; Kuwait’s army confirms intercepting missiles and drones, flights diverted from Kuwait International. 4 US service members + 3 contractors injured. Like NO1, Larry Johnson sees the “ceasefire” a more and more a fiction. From Iran and the US Teetering on the Edge of a Renewed Hot War: The US continues to try to provoke Iran into breaking the ceasefire. On Sunday, the US Central Command said its forces shot down Iranian drones around the Strait of Hormuz and struck an area along Iran’s coast overnight. The strike targeted a site near Bandar Abbas Airport. Iran strongly condemned the US attack on Bandar Abbas Airport, calling it a violation of international law and sovereignty. Iran’s response was swift and multi-pronged. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it responded to the US attack on Bandar Abbas by targeting “the American base from which that attack originated.” Kuwait intercepted drones that morning, indicating Iran’s retaliatory strike was directed at U.S. positions there…. Subsequently, the IRGC claimed responsibility for an attack against a US air base in Kuwait. Explosions were heard to the northwest of Kuwait City. Reports also indicated an Iranian ballistic missile was fired from Khuzestan province just before air raid sirens went off in Kuwait. The Revolutionary Guard also fired at an American commercial vessel attempting to transit the strait on that day and forced it to turn around. Iranian television, quoting a military official, stated that four ships had attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Iranian security forces Notwithstanding this activity, the US military’s command operations running various Crisis Action Teams reportedly took the weekend off and were on stand-by fore being recalled. What we have right now is a simmering crisis accompanied by credible missile retaliation by Iran that is likely to escalate dramatically If Israel continues its renewed offensive against the people of Lebanon. I remain highly skeptical that Trump will make the necessary concessions to reach a deal with Iran. On the economic front, starting with some key AI tidbits. Ed Zitron is great but his posts are also dense because he goes to great lengths to document his claims. This recap is easier to digest and sets forth his key arguments, colorfully I might add: It is also wild to see how big company after big company mandated widespread AI use based on blind faith. And they had no idea how ot measure results. A must-watch. The Starbucks inventory fail is priceless: See also: 🦔An unnamed company just got a $500 million Claude bill for a single month. Half a billion dollars in 30 days because nobody turned on the spending caps. Anthropic's enterprise console has usage limits, dashboards, per-user controls. The company just didn't configure any of them… pic.twitter.com/sJzT8GXB6u — Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets) May 29, 2026 A person deleted 3 months of AI generated code because he could not understand it. He could not explain why it was written that way. pic.twitter.com/SbDOIyyn6E — Wise (@trikcode) May 31, 2026 The youngsters really distrust and disdain AI. Had dinner with a friend and their 19yo son. He's studying CS, wants to go into game dev. Absolutely hates AI and rejected any suggestion I use it for some simple things in his life. Reports that his friends generally feel the same… — Ramez Naam (@ramez) May 31, 2026 A seminal article from TruthDig, $9 Trillion Collapse Machine, focuses on AI’s insatiable capital needs and the critical role the Gulf family monarchies played in feeding it: AI companies are straining to expand beyond their capacities in three key areas: industrial supply chains, grid electricity capacity and global capital markets…If energy and mineral supplies cannot be guaranteed, if capital is no longer liquid and if long-term commitments cannot be met, then that world rapidly unravels…. Even as AI CEOs continue projecting otherworldly confidence in near-term “10x” growth, the cracks in their world-bending visions are beginning to show….; a failure of AI will be less like a burst than a systemic collapse…. The immediate impact of the Iran war is not simply in fossil energy, but also on a huge range of fossil fuel byproducts on which AI and many other industries depend… Helium is only one threatened input… Further up the supply chain, Indonesia, one of the world’s largest mineral exporters, is cutting back mining of copper, nickel and silver, all essential for AI microchips and infrastructure…. While AI superficially appears like another digital platform industry…it is really more like a heavy industry… With AI, there are no economies of scale…. But the costs of using AI continue to soar, despite AI companies spending $720 billion in 2026 alone. As a result, the AI data center build-out has slowed to a crawl. The research group Data Center Watch reports 48 data center projects were blocked in 2025. Another research group, Sightline Climate, estimates that of 16 gigawatts of data centers planned for 2026, only 5 gigawatts are actually under construction. Much of this gap is likely due to power bottlenecks. As a result of the slowdown, AI companies don’t have enough capacity to serve their AI models…. Their losses are going up faster than revenues. Much faster. Open AI is hemorrhaging more money than any company in history. Early last year it forecast a “burn rate” of $35 billion until 2030. Since then, it’s adjusted that forecast twice, and now the burn rate is up to $228 billion. OpenAI will lose $85 billion in 2029 alone — the biggest ever corporate loss in a year — before (it predicts) miraculously turning a profit of $45 billion in 2030. Despite raising billions in funding rounds, the financial doom loop appears intractable….. …the sector has become by far the largest issuer of debt on global finance markets. The amounts are in the trillions… The swirling mass of interconnected multibillion-dollar deals, often called AI’s “circular economy,” links all AI companies together in one inextricably entangled speculative frenzy….; if one goes down, they all go down… The enormously wealthy sovereign wealth funds of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been huge investors in OpenAI, Anthropic and Elon Musk’s xAI… But these countries — now with broken supply chains, severely damaged infrastructure and their image as tax-free havens of stability now in ruins — are facing their own existential challenges… Research group Epoch AI recently rated Gulf states’ withholding of capital investment a “high risk” for the AI boom…. The loss of Gulf states’ capital risk IPO plans by SpaceX, now merged with xAI, OpenAI and Anthropic. All these companies urgently need to go public, as it’s the only place they have left to raise the vast amounts of capital they need… And if one of these company’s IPO fails, it will have a cascading impact through the tech sector. Considering the wider economy’s exposure to tech — whose seven biggest firms account for 30% of the stock market — this is unlikely to be shrugged off like the dot-com bubble. On that cheery note, we will stop for today. See you tomorrow! _____ 1 בעקבות ההפרות החוזרות ונשנות של הפסקת האש בלבנון על ידי ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה והמתקפות נגד ערינו ואזרחינו, הוריתי לצה״ל יחד עם שר הביטחון ישראל כ"ץ לתקוף מטרות טרור ברובע הדאחייה בביירות — Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) June 1, 2026 2 It is over my pay grade, but Larry Wilkerson has said that mere protests, which the Saudis and others have already lodged, might not be sufficient to stop the US from overflights during an Iran attack. He indicated much firmer threats needed to be made. Mind you, that has likely occurred with the Saudis given their vulnerability to having the Houthis interfere with shipments through the Bab el-Mandib strait. But this is an open question. 3 I saw this first hand at Goldman at the tail end of the 1970-early 1980s stagflation. 4 Not that Hezbollah is taking things lying down: 🚨 BREAKING: A major missile barrage has reportedly struck multiple areas across “Israeli” settlements, with dozens of “Al-Asif Al-Ma’kool” rockets fired in response to the bombardment of Beirut. pic.twitter.com/VS3rWFwwmU — IRGC NEWS (@IRGC_IRAN_News) June 1, 2026

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[Today’s Iran war post yet again launched before complete. Please check back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browser then for the finished product] Things are deceptively quiet on the Iran front, but that is only in comparison to the hot phase. Despite regular, bogus reports for A…

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Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

○ 1 source

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.

D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday.

“That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.

Agence France-Presse

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEUChina

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

○ 1 source

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers:

Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress.

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting.

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI.

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses.

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News

US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel:

Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other:

Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX

DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks

Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics

A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs

Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar

9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon!

Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK.

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Iran Declares Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz

○ 1 source

Vessel Traffic Has Fallen to Single Digits As Mines, Insurance Gaps and Safety Concerns Hamper Restart Iran’s ‘renewed closure of Hormuz’ CNN reported onJune 20 (local time) that although Iran declared it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz again, ships passing through the strait had already virtually disappeared.

Despite the United States and Iran signing an agreement to end the war, forecasts suggest that it will take months for shipping traffic and crude oil flows to normalize. According to the report, the Iranian military announced on the day that it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz again, citing ongoing fighting between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Since this announcement came one day before the United States and Iran were set to hold end-of-war negotiations in Switzerland on June 21, it has emerged as a test of the agreement’s implementation and a variable in the negotiations. However, making the blockade declaration effectively meaningless, the number of ships passing through the strait had already dwindled to single digits.

According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, 25 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz as of June 18, which was the highest number since Iran briefly allowed commercial navigation in mid-April. But upon the news that the initial negotiations between the United States and Iran to coordinate the details of the agreement had fallen through, the number of passing ships dropped back to single digits on April 19.

This is still extremely minimal compared to the 100 to 120 oil tankers that traveled daily between Iran and Oman before the war. Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, said, “It is not a situation where a sudden mass exodus is occurring,” adding, “Although traffic has increased somewhat, it is not at a significant level, and it is not yet the stage for a ‘first mover’ to emerge.

” Since the outbreak of the war, approximately 500 ships, including 220 oil tankers, are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. Analyst Smith predicted, “It will take weeks just for about 120 oil tankers loaded with oil to get out, and it will take even more time for 100 empty oil tankers to fill up with crude oil and set sail.

” The biggest reason shipowners are hesitating to operate is safety concerns. Jakob Larsen, head of maritime safety and security at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), an international shipowners’ association, stated, “Despite the signing of the ceasefire agreement, the security situation for the shipping industry remains unstable,” and “The central part of the strait is heavily mined, making navigation impossible, and only the coastal routes close to Oman and Iran are known to be free of mines.

” However, he added that even these coastal sections are dangerous to navigate due to congestion and the risk of accidents. Along with the ships, an estimated 20,000 crew members are also trapped on board. Ben Bailey, director at the seafarers’ support organization Mission to Seafarers, conveyed that many sailors want to leave despite the anxiety over departure safety, saying, “The expression ‘cautious optimism’ would be accurate.

” The insurance void is also a burden for shipowners. Marine insurers withdrew their “war risk” coverage for damages caused by attacks and mines at the beginning of the war, and they have not restored it for most customers despite the ceasefire agreement.

This means that if they suffer damage while navigating hazardous sections without coverage, they cannot receive compensation. Independent oil analyst Tom Kloza pointed out, “It was not only Iran that closed Hormuz, but also insurance companies like Lloyd’s of London.

” In addition to this, there are numerous practical hurdles, such as the seaworthiness of ships that have been anchored for over three months, securing fuel and supplies, and removing barnacles attached to the hulls. Director Bailey pointed out, “It is not a simple matter of saying the green light has turned on at the traffic light, so everyone can just start their engines and go.

” Even if ships immediately resume operation, the normalization of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf is a separate issue. A significant portion of regional production and refining stopped when oil tanker traffic was cut off early in the war, and restarting it will also take time.

Ultimately, trust that the peace agreement will be maintained in the long term is the key. Analyst Kloza said, “We do not know the answer to that,” adding, “It might be considered a safe sea someday, but there is a long way to go to reach that stage.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Iran live updates: US and Iran agree to roadmap for 'final deal' within 60 days

○ 1 source

President Donald Trump announced "major combat operations" against Iran on Feb. 28, with massive joint U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting military, government and infrastructure sites. Delegations from the United States and Iran arrived over the weekend at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, where they entered negotiations aimed at a war-ending deal based on a memorandum of understanding signed last week by both countries.

Iranian delegation leaves talks, heading back to Tehran The Iranian delegation in Switzerland has left the talks and is heading back to Tehran, Iran's state media reported early on Monday, citing the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, who is leading the Iranian delegation, "left the building where the negotiations were held on Monday, following approximately 18 hours of intensive dialogue and consultations," Iran's state broadcaster reported.

-ABC News' Victoria Beaule 41 minutes ago US and Iran to seek 'final deal' within 60 days under newly agreed roadmap The United States and Iran agreed on Sunday to negotiate toward a war-ending deal within a 60-day timeframe, according to Pakistan and Qatar, which are mediating the ongoing talks in Switzerland.

The delegations agreed on Sunday to create a "High Level" committee to "provide political oversight" for the talks, and that new committee in turn agreed to a 60-day roadmap, the mediators said in a joint statement early on Monday. The fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, remained a key point for Iranian negotiators going into Sunday’s talks, officials in Tehran said.

The U.S. and Iran agreed on Sunday to a “deconfliction cell,” a group that will include officials from Tehran and Washington alongside Lebanese officials. That group will seek "to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MoU," the mediators said.

Whether the "deconfliction cell" will be able to make headway in stopping the fighting in Lebanon will mark the "1st real test" for the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday. Israel’s defense minister said in a statement on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces did not plan to leave the areas in southern Lebanon where they’re fighting Hezbollah.

Araghchi otherwise praised Pakistan and Qatar for delivering "major progress" for their efforts in ending the war. "Technical talks will continue for the remainder of the week at the Burgenstock resort on all issues," Pakistan and Qatar said in their joint statement.

"The mediating parties will continue to do their utmost to ensure that the negotiations continue to be conducted in a constructive atmosphere with the aim of reaching a final deal.