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strikeApr 30, 2026

Iran War: Trump Insanity Escalates, Administration Doubles Down on Failed Economic Strangulation as Iran Digs In and Costs to World Rise; Israel Destruction of South Lebanon Continues | naked capitalism

Summary

[This Iran war post launched before complete because your humble blogger is fuzzy headed as a result of 2x nearly 40 hours of travel in 8 days, which also led to my screwing up as to who was on duty for what yesterday and thus preparing Links (when Conor had been on for that) and not putting up an Iran war post instead. So please forgive this piece for being thin and I anticipate a bit heavy on tweets. The final version should be up by 8:00 AM EST, so if you are an early arrival so please refresh this page then] The press is giving less attention to the Iran war due to the reduction in kinetic activity. The so-called ceasefire, violated by Israel continuing to pound Lebanon, the US keeping up its only partially effective blockade, and then Iran retaliating by re-imposing restrictions on Strait of Hormuz access, nevertheless has resulted in the US and its allies and Iran not shooting at each other. That of course may be primarily the result of the US and Israel not simply exhausting defensive missiles but even getting low on offensive precision weapons. Hence even as the assembly of materiel and manpower suggests that the US and Israel are still planning to launch a few days of punishing air strikes, insider-leakers and more and more commentators are pointing out that at best, this would result in more self-harm, via unproductive arms depletion, and risks Iran delivering on its promise to end energy production in the Middle East and send the world into a lasting famine while ending modern civilization as we know it. But a continued impasse and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz will also produce famine and deepen the damage to what passes for civilization, from drug shortages to lower chip output to a big drop in air traffic. The last example may not seem as consequential until you consider the knock-on effects to tourism, and with that the survival of hotels and restaurants in destination spots, jobs, and even real estate values. So the current seeming stasis masks economic pressures building up along many fault lines. And the longer it persists, the worse the eventual earthquake is likely to be. The even greater screechiness from Trump may signal that his lack of good options, yet pressing need to Do Something is weighing even more on him. An additional factor that may be adding to Trump’s tsuris is that he seems to be losing his magic Mr. Market touch. Oil rose another 1% early Wednesday despite the blather above. It may be that the media noise about Administration divisions and military worries about another big set of Iran strikes damaging overall preparedness is simply to get Iran off guard. Or Team Trump could be trying to talk Israel out of taking action on its own, which would necessitate the US piling on (yes I know in theory that the US can stop Israel by not providing SIGINT and other goodies, but in practice, the power of the Zionists in the Administration and Congress means the perceived political cost of employing the choke chain is too high). As much as he might like to (and this would be the least of his bad options) it is inconceivable that Trump would simply toss up his hands and exit, leaving control of the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran (and Oman). That degree of humiliation, and the resulting considerable strengthening of Iran, both geopolitically and economically by being able to export oil freely and collect tolls, is not something the US can swallow. It has to suffer a lot more pain, even if the much of the rest of the world will be first in the firing line. However, it appears instead that the Trump Administration is doubling down on economic sanctions, despite that backfiring with Russia and not being effective with Iran when the US first cheated on and then withdrew from the JCPOA. Iran may not be as much of an autarky as Russia but it is awfully close. Bloomberg describes the Trump effort to escalate on the economic front in US Signals No Letup of Naval Blockade as It Aims to Squeeze Iran. We feel compelled to clear our throat and point out that Bloomberg, which has of late become an uncritical amplifier of Administration messaging, fails to point out that the US blockade is mighty leaky. First, ships can hug the coast of Pakistan and India on their way out; the US has not yet and seems not likely to take action in their territorial waters. That means, even when the navy actually does capture a vessel, it is well away from the Middle East. Larry Johnson has pointed out that these abducted ships must be escorted back to a port, tying up already limited capacity. I have not seen great data here; as of mid-month, Lloyd’s List had identified 26 ships that had slipped past the US cordon even as CENTCOM huffily gave a non-denial denial by asserting that they had gotten 29 to turn back. Johnson maintained in a new talk with Pyotr Kurzinthat about 90% of China-bound ships were getting through but did not provide a source. Now to Bloomberg: The blockade lies at the heart of the impasse between the US and Iran, with the Islamic Republic insisting it won’t restart negotiations or reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the naval restrictions stay in place. Trump says he won’t halt the operation until Iran agrees on a peace deal to end a war that, while now in a ceasefire, began more than two months ago, causing chaos across the Middle East and energy prices to surge. Let us start with a blindingly obvious point: Iran would not be conditioning negotiations on reversing the blockade if it would suffer unendurable harm by having them persist. Iran would instead be running at top speed to the negotiating table to trade to get the blockade removed. Iran’s conduct says it is confident it can stand whatever pain that produces. So the idea that the Administration can use the continuation of the blockade as a bludgeon is just silly, or at best aimed at Mr. Market (“Iran won’t be able to hold out much longer, so things will be back to the old normal real soon!”). But Bloomberg dutifully harps on the idea that Iran will really really suffer because its storage will fill up and it will soon have to turn off oil production! As if that has not already occurred across the rest of the Gulf? We were told then that it would be take some doing to shut them down, that restarting them would take time, and if they were shut for a long time (as in months plus) that could harm output. But with Iran, the message is that well shutdowns = immediate damage. Are we to believe that Iran, which is full of engineers, is less capable of managing its production assets than other states in the region? But let us indulge the official propaganda. More from Bloomberg: It’s unclear how much storage and time Iran has left before it would need to close down wells, which may damage them permanently. Analytics firm Kpler estimates it has another 12 to 22 days. Trump has told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade and that it carries less of a risk for the US than resuming hostilities or walking away from the conflict without a deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear activities. Larry Johnson’s latest post provided an unadulterated version via quoting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: The Treasury Department, through Economic Fury, has targeted Iran’s international shadow banking infrastructure, access to crypto, shadow fleet, weapons procurement networks, funding for terrorist proxies in the region, and independent Chinese “teapot” refineries that support Iran’s oil trade. These actions have disrupted tens of billions of dollars in revenue that would be used to fund terrorism. Under President Trump’s’ maximum pressure campaign, Tehran’s inflation has doubled and its currency has rapidly depreciated. Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is soon nearing storage capacity, which will force the regime to reduce oil production, resulting in an additional approximately $170 million per day in lost revenue, and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure. Treasury will continue to exert maximum pressure and any person, vessel, or entity facilitating illicit flows to Tehran risks exposure to U.S. sanctions. Oh, and get a load of the Wall Street Journal in Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral. After an anecdata-heavy account, it concedes at the very end: “Iranians will suffer hardship,” said Mohamed Amersi, an Iran expert and member of the Global Advisory Council of the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “But their pain tolerance threshold is higher.” The mainstream media, as far as I can tell, has also not sufficiently registered that Iran has toughened its terms. Earth to base, this means that Iran feels even more, not less, confident as the Administration is visibly flailing about. Iran has said it is no longer willing to discuss nuclear enrichment (“not now” can be translated to mean “not ever”). 🚨 🇮🇷 Iran will NOT accept any deal that restricts nuclear enrichment. Tehran will only negotiate: • End of the war • Full control over Strait of Hormuz • War reparations • Sanctions relief + lifting naval blockade Nuclear issues to be discussed later in a separate deal. pic.twitter.com/UTRLoy9rFZ — Ebrahim Zolfaghari (@Irantimes02) April 26, 2026 Weirdly, a lot of pundits, even ones on the Iran beat, are still depicting a more stringent version of the JCPOA (which Iran had offered before the US and Israel attacked Iran) as a face-saving way out for Trump and could conceivably be sold to and in Israel. The fact that that Iran has pulled that issue off the table suggests that Iran, which already knew that talking to the US was both pointless (the US and Israel do not adhere to agreements) as well as risky ot the negotiators, looks now to be trying to carry itself so as to feign being willing to entertain talks for the benefit of economic victims across the globe while taking select concrete steps to make sure they don’t happen, or at least not in person. And Iran actually is getting more friends. It was just voted in to a key UN post, becoming vice president of the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. And the backing came not from BRICS (which we have long depicted as over-rated as a geopolitical force, although it could become one eventually) but the old Non-Aligned Movement, which dates to 1961. This clip is worth watching if nothing else to see the heads of US officials explode. And as for that US blockade being at best partly effective, it can also be circumvented by simply using other export routes. Iran is ramping up the use of a new a rail link to China. It can’t carry as much oil in total as tankers can, but transit times are much faster: Larry Wilkerson provided additional salient detail about other export routes open to Iran. Note he is focusing mainly on Iran’s supply needs but the same corridors can be used for exports of various sorts with a bit of investment. And as far as the ‘Stans go, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, all those countries that are awash now with the power that China’s magnet has pulled towards the east are going to be right there with them. Not because they were once SSRs of the Soviet Union, but because they see the reality of power shifting. And that reflects you take out your map and look at the Caspian Sea and see how the Caspian Sea is essentially a lake, a huge lake across which Russia can resupply Iran till hell freezes over with no interference because all the countries that are littoral to the Caspian Sea are on their side in this or at least are neutral and not going to interdict the shipping. So you could send everything you wanted to send. It’s a reverse of what we did for the Soviet Union in World War II along the Persian Gulf through Iran and on up into Staling Gro would never have survived if it hadn’t been for that supply chain. Now it’s reversed. It’s reversed in terms of direction and it’s reversed in terms of interested parties. The interested parties are those affiliated with the SEO, with Russia, with BRICS, and are very much, as you just pointed out, on Iran’s side in this conflict for not sentimental reasons, but for very understandable power reasons. They’re on Iran’s side. And the main power reason is the demented power on the other side of the Atlantic that they see now cannot be dealt with. And you’re right, they’ve seen it now for about 12 years. They’ve seen it with Trump, Biden, and Trump. And as we pointed out yesterday in Links: 🇵🇰Pakistan Has Officially Fooled Trump and the USA. 🇵🇰Pakistan has now opened six corridors with Iran to bypass the U.S. blockade. 🇮🇷More than 3,000 containers are already moving through these routes. 🇮🇷Iran can now connect directly by land to Russia and China and the US… pic.twitter.com/6E8YYi85QI — World updates (@itswpceo) April 28, 2026 Needless to say, the wags are having none of it: Iran’s economy will collapse right after Russia’s! https://t.co/WqqdzDrqIS — Policy Tensor (@policytensor) April 25, 2026 Now to some updates on the economic cost front, first from Michael Shedlock in National Gasoline Prices Hit the Highest Level Since Start of War in Iran: 🚜 The US farm sector is under a diesel and fertilizer cost shock. – Farm bankruptcies +46% YoY, the third straight annual increase – 1.9 million farms in America, the lowest ever recorded – Diesel prices are up +54.4% from a year ago – 70% of farmers say they can't afford to… pic.twitter.com/FiEDpTu3PT — Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) April 29, 2026 We will skip over the furor of the UAE leaving OPEC in May. With no shipments out of the Gulf now, this move has no immediate effect. The UAE apparently wants to pump freely when it can. But that also assumes that there will be a UAE when the conflict ends. And from Nikkei’s South Asia Watch: Its [India’s] exporters are largely absorbing the sharp cost escalation in crude-linked inputs as buyers in the U.S. and Europe resist price hikes on current contracts. While they anticipate negotiating raising prices by 15% to 30% for new contracts, there is also the risk of losing clients. Supply shocks from the Iran war have also impacted the oil and gas units of Reliance Industries, India’s largest conglomerate. Profits for the January-March quarter fell more than 8% year-on-year. Chairman Mukesh Ambani, Asia’s second richest man, cited “unprecedented dislocation in global supply chains.” Neither are fund managers immune. Venture capital firms in India count the Middle East as one of their largest sources of capital. Now, with the region plunged into chaos, negotiations have slowed, raising concerns that firms seeking fresh inflows may have to scale back operations. These funds are now increasingly wooing investors from Europe and parts of Asia. Other sightings: UPDATE: Ryanair CEO warns European airlines may fail if jet fuel prices stay high 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/vnfmfZ7wlw pic.twitter.com/GsAi9f65Li — Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) April 28, 2026 For the technically minded: Apologies for giving Lebanon short shrift. We also have some updates in Links: #BREAKING: Israeli Foreign Minister to Al-Arabiya: We will withdraw from Lebanon when there is effective authority exercised by the government and the army https://t.co/evbzt3tU2f pic.twitter.com/3lU7t4FMQt — Arab News (@arabnews) April 29, 2026 Haaretz Report: @Israel @IDF Militants Are Looting Homes In South Lebanon. The Israeli Paper Reported That IDF Militants Are Looting The Homes Of Forcibly Displaces South Lebanese Civilians.https://t.co/LpVBsa2d52 — Lance Dyer 〓〓 (@Lance63) April 29, 2026 🚨Final Warning from ISRAEL 🇮🇱 Israel just bombed southern Lebanon and their Defense Minister announced the goal is to make it look like Gaza. In case anyone was still wondering about intentions. pic.twitter.com/XmIAg6JXG4 — A K Mandhan (@A_K_Mandhan) April 29, 2026 Stopping for today. Back tomorrow.

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  • Yves SmithBy Yves Smith

    [This Iran war post launched before complete because your humble blogger is fuzzy headed as a result of 2x nearly 40 hours of travel in 8 days, which also led to my screwing up as to who was on duty for what yesterday and thus preparing Links (when Conor had been on for that) and…

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran