live Live: ASX set to rally as US shares surge on hopes of end to Iran war Wall Street ends a weak month with a massive gain, as investors eye a possible end to US military action in Iran. The ASX is set to follow with futures trade pointing to gains of at least 1.5 per cent. Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog. Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice. Submit a comment or question Live updates Market snapshot - ASX 200 futures: +1.5% to 8,643 points - Australian dollar: -0.1% to 68.96 US cents - S&P 500: +2.9% to 6,529 points - Nasdaq: +3.8% to 21,591 points - FTSE: +0.5% to 10,176 points - EuroStoxx: +0.4% to 583 points - Spot gold: +3.5% to $US4,670/ounce - Brent crude: +4.9% to $US118.31/barrel* - Iron ore: +0.7% to $US107.35/tonne - Bitcoin: -0.4% to $US67,921 * May contract. Prices current around 8:15am AEDT. 'What the' reaction Could i offer a suggestion to add another "Reaction" given some of the posts. I'd suggest a "What the?" :) - Vin Hi Vin, couldn't agree more. I could certainly use that reaction multiple times a day at the moment! I suspect we're far from alone...Loading 'Go get your own oil' Further to the previous posts, US President Donald Trump has advised America's "allies" to "go get your own oil", basically saying if they want the Strait of Hormuz open, they should go and do the job themselves. My Washington DC-based colleague Brad Ryan has this report. Energy traders less optimistic While US share traders were buying up big on hope, there wasn't a big move to dump oil. While Brent crude futures for May settled almost 5% higher at $US118.35 overnight, the contract for June was down around 3% to $US103.97. Nonetheless, even the decline for June was modest compared to the surge in stock prices on Wall Street. This clearly goes to reports that Donald Trump has indicated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not a necessary condition to end the war. While share investors clung to hopes of an end to the war, as NAB's Rodrigo Catril notes, it is a resolution to the effective blockade of the Strait that is more important for the global economy. "The improvement in risk appetite over the past 24 hours was initially triggered by a WSJ report noting that President Trump had told aides he's willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed," Catril observes. "The market seemed to take this as a positive step however it is important to note that what matters is for the Strait of Hormuz to open again and for the flow of vessels in the Middle East to get back to where it was before the conflict." Wall St surges on hopes for an end to Iran war Good morning and welcome to the markets blog. It looks like another busy day, this time in a positive sense. As I write, the S&P 500 has just closed almost 3% higher, with the Nasdaq surging almost 4%. The catalyst for these massive gains, which come off the back of a month when the Nasdaq briefly entered a correction (down at least 10% from its recent peak)? Comments from both the US administration and the Iran president indicating that an end to the conflict may be close. Traders are clinging to any hope that this destructive war might end in the next few days, rather than drag on for weeks more. There is a large caveat from the US president that traders seem to have ignored, though — Donald Trump has hinted that the war might end with Iran still in effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. If that were the case, then oil supplies may still be restricted from pre-war levels and Iran may even charge tolls for ships to safely pass through. Join me and my colleagues to follow the action throughout the Australian trading day.Loading
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The Houthis in Yemen have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian shipping through Red Sea ports, including at the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The group, described as Iran-backed, stated the measure would target the top oil exporter following recent exchanges of fire.
Reports indicate this could add to existing maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to US-Iran confrontations.
A Reuters poll of economists conducted July 7-16 shows that most Gulf Cooperation Council economies are now projected to contract more sharply in the current year than estimated three months earlier, with median forecasts indicating declines of 8.1% for Kuwait and Qatar, 5.
1% for Bahrain, and 0.5% for the UAE. Saudi Arabia and Oman remain the only GCC economies expected to expand. The poll links the revisions to reduced export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs, and weaker investor sentiment, even as oil prices have risen.
Initial reports indicate that a limited number of vessels transited the waterway during the first full day after the United States implemented a naval blockade of Iran. These observations have not been independently verified.
The head of the UN’s nuclear agency yesterday signaled that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the US and Iran to reach an end to their war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi was the firmest yet from the agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile.
Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran last year, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons.
Photo: AP Iran has said that its program is peaceful, although it would be the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity without a weapons program. The US and Iran offered contradictory remarks on Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected.
“I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a memorandum of understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.
The accord “explicitly states that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards of the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. “Obviously, to do that, we have to inspect,” Grossi added.
BOOST: By operating the same advanced systems as the US military, Taiwan would be better positioned to share and integrate intelligence with partners, an expert said The first batch of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones has arrived in Taiwan, and is being assembled and tested by drone manufacturer General Atomics and the military ahead of flight trials as part of the air force’s acquisition to bolster its aerial surveillance capabilities, a source said yesterday.
The air force allocated a budget of NT$21.7 billion (US$687 million) from 2022 to 2029 to procure four MQ-9B uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by General Atomics along with associated equipment such as ground control stations. The US has agreed to deliver the four MQ-9Bs to Taiwan in two batches this year and next ‘BRAZEN’: The holiday did not stop China from activities that infringe on Taiwan’s maritime jurisdiction, but the CGA is ready to defend the nation, Kuan Bi-ling said Beijing is intensifying maritime pressure on Taiwan, but the nation will never yield, Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en (宋承恩) said.
The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has adopted a “shadowing and monitoring” approach to avoid falling into a Chinese trap to escalate tensions and deepen the conflict, Sung said in an interview published yesterday in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper).
China Coast Guard formations patrolling waters east of Taiwan, as well as official Chinese vessels entering areas around Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) and Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) show Beijing’s attempts to significantly step up Taiwanese firms’ China investments have dwindled to less than 1 percent of their total foreign investments, putting China-based investments on track for a record low this year, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed.
Taiwan’s investments abroad in the first five months of this year reached US$35.92 billion, Department of Investment Review data showed. Investments outside China totaled US$35.61 billion, up 133.94 percent year-on-year, while investments in China totaled US$310.
3 million, down 32.3 percent and about 0.86 percent of the total, data showed. Major overseas projects included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) US$30 billion capital injection into an overseas subsidiary, VARYING OPINIONS: People with different political affiliations have different views on how bilateral ties with the US, Japan and China would affect Taiwan’s security Two-thirds of Taiwanese view closer US and Japan ties as beneficial to security, a survey by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed.
To gauge the Taiwanese public’s perceptions of how different external relationships affect security, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research commissioned a survey by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center asking respondents whether closer relations with the US, Japan and China would strengthen or weaken Taiwan’s national security.