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strikeMar 31, 2026

Stocks Surge on Signs the US and Iran Seek to End War

Summary

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +3.43%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +2.88%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +3.42%. Stock indexes rallied sharply on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that President Trump signaled he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The report said Mr. Trump believes the US should wind down hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait. If that fails, the US will press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the waterway. US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran on Tuesday, while Iran hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack, and the UAE reported a drone attack.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. Stocks added to their gains, and crude oil prices tumbled Tuesday afternoon after Iran signaled openness to resolving the war. Iranian President Masoud Pezeskhian said his country had the "necessary will to end this war," provided that hostilities end on all fronts and that Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is recognized. Falling bond yields are also supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low of 4.28% on Tuesday. Bond yields declined amid hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices, easing inflation concerns. Stocks also found support on Tuesday after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose. The US Jan S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.18% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.38% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2.5 years. The US Mar MNI Chicago PMI fell -4.9 to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 55.0. The Conference Board US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 91.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to 87.9. US Feb JOLTS job openings fell -358,000 to 6.882 million, weaker than expectations of 6.890 million. Hawkish comments on Tuesday from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid were negative for stocks, as he said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time" and that he's concerned inflation will get stuck closer to 3% as the recent surge in energy prices will likely feed through to core inflation. Signs of strength in China’s economy are supportive for global growth prospects and stocks. The China March manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.4, better than expectations of 50.1 and the strongest pace of expansion in a year. Also, the China March non-manufacturing PMI rose by +0.6 to 50.1, better than expectations of 49.9. Crude oil prices (CLK26) fell from a 3-week high on Tuesday but remain supported despite President Trump signaling he is willing to end the war with Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March. The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.50%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1-week high and closed down -0.80%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -1.58%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Tuesday closed up by +7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.1 bp to 4.307%. June T-notes rose to a 1-week high on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.283%. T-notes moved higher on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns. T-notes fell from their best level after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose and after Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time." European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -3.1 bp to 3.004%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.9 bp to 4.916%. Eurozone Mar CPI rose +2.5% y/y, the most in 14 months, but below expectations of +2.6% y/y. Mar core CPI rose +2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y. German Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase. ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said, "The ECB can't rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time." Swaps are discounting a 55% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today, helping lift the overall market. Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +6%, and Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +5%. Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +2%. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks after Nvidia said it is investing $2 billion in the company. Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Sandisk (SNDK) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +10%. In addition, Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +7%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +6%. Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +5%, and Micron Technology (MU), Analog Devices (ADI), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +4%. Airline stocks surged on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell by more than -1% in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +8%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +7%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up more than +5%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +3%. Home builders and building suppliers moved higher on Tuesday after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low, which lowers mortgage rates and supports housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) closed up more than +4%, and DR Horton (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) closed up more than +3%. Also, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) closed up more than +2%. Energy producers and energy service providers moved lower on Tuesday after WTI crude oil fell from a 3-week high, dropping by more than 1%. APA Corp (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN) closed down more than -2%, and Chevron (CVX) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed down more than -1%. Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) closed up more than +135% after being acquired by Biogen for $5.6 billion, or about $41 a share. Biogen (BIIB) closed down more than -2% on the news. Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) closed up more than +44% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the company for about $7.8 billion or $38 a share, plus a further $9 a share if three milestone targets are met. Scholar Rock (SRRK) closed up by more than +14% after it resubmitted its Biologics License Application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) closed up more than +12% after saying it plans to build a 310-megawatt server facility in Finland. Caterpillar (CAT) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Barclays raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $625. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $611 million, better than the consensus of $604.9 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $2.45 billion to $2.47 billion from a previous estimate of $2.42 billion to $2.45 billion, above the consensus of $2.45 billion. Phreesia (PHR) is down more than -26% after cutting its 2027 revenue forecast to $510 million to $520 million from a previous forecast of $545 million to $559 million, well below the consensus of $550.9 million. Constellation Energy (CEG) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11 to $12.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $11.72. McCormick & Co (MKC) closed down more than -6% after agreeing to acquire Unilever’s Food business for $15.7 billion in cash and $29.7 billion of stock. Earnings Reports(4/1/2026) Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM).On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - This Dividend King Is Down 26%. When Will It Bounce Back? - Ignore the Panic and Buy the Dip in Micron Stock, Says Bank of America - Ignore the TurboQuant Panic and Keep Buying Seagate Technology Stock, Says JPMorgan - Constellation Energy Just Broke Below Its 50-Day Moving Average. Should You Buy the CEG Stock Dip as Company Misses Guidance? The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranEUChina
1 source

Japan’s Defense Ministry said Friday that Iran used its geographical advantage to “inflict unbearable costs at a relatively low military expense,” effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz by indicating that it had laid naval mines, Kyodo News reported.

The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

“It is important to establish a process that maximizes the benefits of AI while ensuring appropriate human involvement,” the ministry said. The report comes ahead of a planned revision of Japan’s key security documents by the end of this year.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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A major offensive by Yemen's Houthis to seize control of the gateway to the Red Sea has left more than 120 people dead, sources told AFP Friday, the country's deadliest clashes in years. Fighting erupted on Thursday, after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a ground assault along with rocket and drone attacks near coastal areas, vying for control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance.

Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebels are now trying to tighten their hold over the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which they have disrupted with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war broke out in 2023. The Houthi offensive aims to cut off the government-held port city of Mokha, under fire for weeks, and advance towards areas bordering the Bab al-Mandab, military sources told AFP.

The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea -- and, via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean -- to the Indian Ocean. In July, a fragile truce between the Houthis and the government fell apart after the rebels welcomed an Iranian plane to Sanaa, setting off a spate of attacks.

They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

Location: Tyre
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUNRussiaChina
1 source

If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

S. Iran's uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem