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strikeApr 15, 2026

US-Iran Peace Hopes Push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to Record Highs

Summary

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.40%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.41%. Stock indexes settled mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East is supporting stocks. The AP reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran reached an "in-principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire to allow for more diplomacy. The US and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement. The weakness in industrial stocks on Wednesday, over concerns about US metals tariffs, weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance. Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened. Wednesday’s US economic news is mixed for stocks. The Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expectations of 0.0. Also, the Mar import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Conversely, the Apr NAHB housing market index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, weaker than expectations of 37. US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.8% in the week ended April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +5.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% in the prior week. Comments on Wednesday from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were hawkish and negative for stocks, as she said we're still persistently missing the inflation mandate and that her baseline is the Fed is on hold for a “good while.” The Fed Beige Book stated that economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace with moderate price growth overall, but energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts in the six weeks to April 6. WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) were little changed on Wednesday as the US presses on with its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there. The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March. Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.74%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1.5-month high and closed up +0.44%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Wednesday closed down by -5.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.276%. T-note prices were under pressure on Wednesday as optimism for an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire eased geopolitical risks and sparked a rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, reducing safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes also fell after the Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed is on hold for a “good while.” In addition, the Fed Beige Book stated that energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts, a bearish factor for T-notes. Losses in T-notes were limited after the Apr NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 7-month low. European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 3.043%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.4 bp to 4.814%. Eurozone Feb industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Swaps are discounting a 21% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30. US Stock Movers Software stocks are climbing today, rebounding from their recent selloff. Atlassian (TEAM) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +9%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +7%, and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +6%. In addition, Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +5%, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Finally, Oracle (ORCL), Autodesk (ADSK), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3%. Cybersecurity stocks moved higher on Wednesday, led by a +6% increase in Cloudflare (NET) after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $222, saying it is an “AI-winner to own.” Also, Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +6%, and Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +5%. In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +2%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1%. Industrial stocks retreated on Wednesday over concerns of US metals tariff costs. Carrier Global (CARR) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Lennox International (LII) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed down more than -6%, and Ingersoll Rand (IR) and A O Smith (AOS) closed down more than -5%. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the SEC gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors. Gitlab (GTLB) closed up more than +8% after announcing a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI. Snap Inc (SNAP) closed up more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an attempt to reduce costs and achieve profitability. Morgan Stanley (MS) closed up more than +4% after reporting a Q1 equities trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than the consensus of $4.78 billion. Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +3% after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to deploy AI infrastructure. Stellantis NV (STLA) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q1 global shipments rose +12% y/y, led by a surge in North American deliveries. Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) closed down more than -6% after a NY federal jury found that the company illegally monopolized the live events industry and overcharged fans. Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -2% after an SEC filing showed EVP Sadana sold $10.1 million of shares last Friday. Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) closed down more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $10. Earnings Reports(4/16/2026) Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), Netflix Inc (NFLX), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Prologis Inc (PLD), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), US Bancorp (USB).On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - S&P Futures Muted After Rally, U.S. Economic Data and Earnings in Focus - Stock Index Futures Gain on Hopes for Renewed U.S.-Iran Talks, PPI Data and More Big Bank Earnings on Tap - Stocks Set to Open Lower as Oil Prices Top $100 After U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse, Big Bank Earnings Awaited - Iran Ceasefire, Bank Earnings and Other Key Things to Watch this Week The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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  • BarchartBy Barchart

    The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.40%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.41

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina
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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy
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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.