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Futures Flat As Traders Brace For Weekend Iran Escalation
Futures Flat As Traders Brace For Weekend Iran Escalation US equity futures are flat on the final trading session of the week, with Tech lagging, as traders hold off on big bets ahead of the weekend, with the fragile truce in the Middle East keeping geopolitical risk front of mind. Overnight, the US said Iran talks will continue, a positive step amid the recent escalation near the Strait of Hormuz (then again the market never reacted negatively to the latest strikes in the first place). As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures are flat and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%; pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: META +1.8%, MSFT +0.9%, while NVDA and AAPL are down 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Notably, META has been outperforming since the announcement of its Muse Spark AI model and its strategy for the cloud business. SemiAnalysis, whose "unbiased", often wrong but never in doubt, views at some point be investigated by a regulator, also struck a positive note on METAâs AI development (here). Bond yields are 1â2 bp lower, and USD is mostly unchanged. Commodities are mixed: WTI is down 0.2%; base metals are higher, while precious metals are mostly lower. The US economic data calendar empty for the session. Next week includes June CPI, PPI data. Fed calendar empty for the session. In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks are mixed with Meta rising 3% after research firm SemiAnalysis posted a positive report on the social media giantâs AI compute business (Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon unchanged, Alphabet +0.1%, Apple -0.4%, Tesla unchanged, Nvidia -0.4%). CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) jumps 9% after Reuters reports that the insurance software company is exploring a sale. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) gains 13% after the stablecoin issuer received approval from the US Comptroller of the Currency to establish âFirst National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.,â a national trust bank that will offer digital asset services. Delta Air Lines (DAL) slips 2.8% after the airline posted second quarter results. EquipmentShare.com (EQPT) gains 13% after the company announced a $500 million share buyback. Fermi (FRMI ) down -17% after offering $350 million in convertible senior notes Twilio (TWLO) climbs 2% as Stifel upgrades to buy on the companyâs potential to capitalize on the current AI cycle. WD-40 (WDFC) rises 14% after the lubricant spray maker boosted its net sales forecast for the full year. In other AI news, JPMorgan has built an array of AI-powered investing agents that beat 60/40 portfolio in back-tests. OpenAI and Google confirmed they have been supplying AI services to Singapore-based subsidiaries of Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, the Financial Times reports. Netflix is said to be considering steps to deal with signs of declining subscriber engagement, according to the WSJ. Bayer sold a minority stake in its contraceptives business to Apollo for âŹ3 billion ($3.4 billion) and will use the funds raised to help cover its ballooning litigation costs tied to the herbicide Roundup. Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US, which would let users bet on events with less capital upfront. We end a week characterized by thematic rotations, signs of a summer trading lull and low volatility at the index level. Brent crude traded near $76.50 a barrel, swinging between small gains and losses after a volatile stretch. Talks between the US and Iran are continuing despite days of fighting that drove a steep drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of further escalation is expected to keep investors cautious as they close out the week. âOver the weekend, discussions between the US and Iran are expected to continue,â said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. âOil prices could provide a useful gauge of investor sentiment and expectations regarding the evolution of the situation.â Yet away from geopolitics, things are about to get busier soon, with Tuesdayâs blitz of five major US bank results heralding the start of the earnings season. And speaking of rotation, Lilian Chovin at Coutts in London, notes that the firm has moved a bit underweight US equities. âOther regions are probably better placed right now to navigate the coming few months. Obviously by reducing our US exposure, we have reduced our exposure to tech mega cap.â  The Coutts team remains positive on the AI theme, he explains. âItâs more nuanced than people selling tech to go into defensive sectors. Weâve seen a rotation within tech, caused by some noise around semiconductors.â After an unprecedented rally in chipmakers and other AI buildout stocks helped markets shrug off higher oil prices and elevated bond yields, the bar is now high for companies to justify their lofty valuations. For hyperscalers, the onus is on proving that the spending can generate strong returns. âWhat remains to be confirmed is whether growth can hold up despite that pressure, with the AI capex cycle continuing to support investment, revenues and earnings,â said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. âExpectations are high, but the real test is whether earnings can keep validating the expansion story.â This morning another company capitalized on the chip bubble when SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its ADR offering, the largest ever US first-time share sale by a foreign company. The company sold 177.9 million ADRs for $149 apiece, each equivalent to a 10th of a Seoul-traded common share. Hynixâs US debut is set to spur a wave of leveraged ETF product launches. Analysts have upgraded S&P 500 earnings estimates ahead of the second-quarter reporting season, setting the bar high in âan atypical move,â according to HSBC strategists. The Street now expect profits to rise 22% from a year earlier, the highest in the post-pandemic period. Meanwhile, with Q2 reports due shortly, an interesting set-up is emerging between earnings season expectations and headline risk, notes Bloombergâs equity derivatives specialist Christian Dass. Persistently low implied correlation leaves the VIX vulnerable to a sharp repricing if markets become increasingly driven by macro headlines rather than stock specific fundamentals. In politics, Trump fired two Democratic members of the US Election Assistance Commission, while the Republican member resigned. Graham Platnerâs exit from the Maine Senate race has set off a scramble to find a replacement to take on Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with at least six Democrats entering the field. In other assets, carry trades are seeing the most compelling backdrop in more than two decades, according to Goldman Sachs, while an unprecedented divergence in the oil-market crack spread gauge are prompting Vanguard to buy insurance against stickier-than-expected US inflation. Trade during the European session has been indecisive and non-committal alongside a particularly slow news cycle. The Stoxx 600 has oscillated around the unchanged mark: tech and energy sectors are the worst performers, while telecoms and miners are the biggest gainers. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: EasyJet shares jump as much as 15% after the budget airline received a fresh bid from private equity firm Apollo that beats a rival proposal from Castlelake. The shares remain below both offer prices. Vodafone shares soar as much as 14% after its biggest shareholder Emirates Telecommunications Group agreed to sell its entire 16% stake in the firm to a vehicle controlled by billionaire Xavier Niel. Voestalpine, Salzgitter and ArcelorMittal rose after JPMorgan upgraded the steel producers. The bank says it expects 2Q reporting to focus on the impact of cuts to EU steel imports and import tariffs effective from July, which have the potential to transfer demand to EU steel producers. EMS-Chemie shares gain as much as 3.5% after it reported better-than-expected first-half sales and profit and raised its net sales forecast for the year. Hays shares rise as much as 13% after the recruitment company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter fees and forecast full 2026 profit to be at top end of the consensus range. St Jamesâs Place shares fall as much as 7% after Financial News reported that one of the wealth managerâs largest advice firms has decided to exit the group, spotlighting ongoing retention troubles. Duerr shares fall as much as 4% as Berenberg downgrades the German stock to hold from buy and slashes its price target almost in half, citing dependency to automotive original equipment manufacturers. Glenveagh Properties drops as much as 5.1% after being downgraded at Deutsche Bank, as analysts believe the Irish housebuilder is fairly valued following recent gains. Troax shares fall as much as 6.6% after Berenberg downgraded the Swedish maker of machinery parts and warehouse fittings to hold from buy, citing a tough automotive end-market and the likelihood of a slow margin recovery. The mood in Asia was more upbeat with the MSCI APAC index up 0.8%, boosted by a rally in tech shares. Asian stocks climbed, boosted by a rally in tech shares amid optimism ahead of the US listing by South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1.7%, the most in a week. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were the top contributors to the benchmarkâs advance and led a 5% surge in the Kospi. Japanâs Nikkei 225 was up almost 2%. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its American depositary receipt offering, powering through recent volatility in global semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronicsâ Executive Chairman Jay Lee is seeking to meet with Nvidiaâs Jensen Huang in the US late July to discuss the formerâs investment plans in South Koreaâs southwest area, according to a media report. Elsewhere, trading in Taiwan was halted as a strong typhoon approached the island. Japan called on its pension funds, which include one of the worldâs largest, to invest in domestic assets. Here Are the Most Notable Movers Shares of Japanese wafer maker Sumco rallied as much as 15% to hit their upper daily limit after Micronâs plan to invest in Taiwanâs GlobalWafers was seen as a sign of rising demand in the sector. Lenovoâ shares rise as much as 9.2% after Morgan Stanley upgrades the Chinese device maker and more than doubles the price target, citing its ability to pass through higher component costs amid AI-driven demand. Zhipu shares drop as much as 9.7% in Hong Kong, paring a sharp three-day rally, after Goldman initiated coverage at neutral, saying their valuation fairly reflects the competitiveness of the companyâs AI models. Mitsubishi Motors shares climbed as much as 17%, the most since December 2024, after the vehicle maker announced a tie-up to produce humanoid robots with a Tokyo-based startup. Fast Retailing shares slipped as much as 3.7%, the most since May 12, after the Uniqlo ownerâs 3Q earnings beat was seen as priced in In FX, the dollar dipped 0.1% in a third straight day of losses. Bonds extended a rebound, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries falling two basis point to 4.54%. The yen outperformed major currencies, rising 0.4% after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants pension funds to increase investment in domestic assets. In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve following similar price action across European bonds with oil prices steady. US yields are 1bp-2bp lower with curve spreads within a basis point of Thursdayâs close, 10-year near 4.535% with bunds and gilts in the sector also about 1.5bp richer on the day. During Asia session, yen and JGBs advanced after Japanâs Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama called on pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest in domestic assets. Long-end JGB yields ended more than 10bp lower. US session has no major scheduled events. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Four borrowers priced $2.25b in new US investment-grade bonds Thursday, pushing weekly volume through $51b and more than double forecasts. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.2 times covered. In commodities, Brent crude futures are down 0.5% and around the $76/bbl mark with traders awaiting further directional clues from events in the Middle East. WTI crude oil futures little changed as US and Iran continue talks despite a flare-up in fighting. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver down 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Bitcoin is higher by 1.5%. The US economic data calendar empty for the session. Next week includes June CPI, PPI data. Fed calendar empty for the session. Next week Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News US-Iran negotiations on a permanent peace deal are continuing, according to an American official, despite two days of clashes that threatened to unravel the ceasefire. BBG Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran. This news that comes just 24 hours after Trump unexpectedly switched back to the old Air Force One for his return flight from the NATO summit in Turkey as a âsecurity precautionâ (the New Air Force One doesnât have the same security features as the old one). Iran for years has vowed openly to retaliate against Trump for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was a top general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the presidentâs first term. WSJ The UAE boosted crude production to an all-time high last month, pumping 4.1 million b/d on average in June. IEA Global diesel market faces a significant supply crunch as Russia bans exports due to domestic shortages following Ukraine strikes. FT Japanâs Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, sparked a jump in the yen on Friday when she said the government would pursue policies to encourage pension funds to buy more Japanese assets. Japanâs biggest public pension fund will likely ignore the call to boost domestic investment, at least in the short run, because of strict rules governing asset allocation and its public mandate. BBG Japanâs producer prices picked up in June to the fastest pace since early 2023, reinforcing the case for the BOJ to keep hiking rates. BBG Taiwan halted trading on its stock exchange and closed schools as Typhoon Bavi approached the island. TSMC postponed its monthly sales disclosure to Monday. BBG South African economic growth is on an upswing as efforts to improve governance and critical infrastructure are lifting bottlenecks that have held it back for years, according to Standard Bankâs chief economist. BBG SemiAnalysis thinks Meta should be talked about alongside OpenAI and Anthropic as the top three frontier AI labs in the world (of the hyperscalers, SemiAnalysis thinks Meta, not Google, has the best chance of catching up with Anthropic and OpenAI). SemiAnalysis, which may or may not have a conflict of interest Trump fired two Democratic members of the US Election Assistance Commission, while the Republican member resigned. Graham Platnerâs exit from the Maine Senate race has set off a scramble to find a replacement to take on Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with at least six Democrats entering the field: BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqauwk Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, as they followed the tech-led gains seen stateside. Military strikes continued on Thursday, but energy prices and equity markets seemed to have brushed it aside and instead took a stronger liking to President Trumpâs comments, in which he said Iran had reached out to the US and wanted to make a deal, easing concerns over a further escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure. To note, the Taiwan markets were closed due to the typhoon, and worries of the typhoon hitting China and Japan. ASX 200 initially opened with modest losses but has since reversed and printed modest gains. Metals & Mining topped the sector pile, cutting 4 consecutive days of losses, while Health Care was the sector laggard. Nikkei 225 gained, with SUMCO leading the way as it benefited from the semiconductor strength stateside. On the earnings front, Seven & I and Fast Retailing both posted strong earnings and raised their FY guidance; however, shares traded lower after highlighting the effects of a weaker yen. KOSPI surged, helped by gains in Samsung Electronics while SK Hynix shares traded choppy ahead of its US ADR listing. The choppiness in SK Hynix comes as investors position themselves for the ADR, with analysts stating that the US ADR may be preferred over its domestic listing, due to US ADRs commonly trading at a premium (typically at a 5-15% premium). Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng were firmer, with another set of IPOs in Hong Kong, resulting in 15 listings this week. Today, markets were focused on Nexchip Semiconductor. The IPO price was set at HKD 32.30/shr, and shares rose at the open and briefly topped HKD 36/shr but have since come off. Top Asian News Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are to pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama does not comment on specific bond yield levels; specific monetary tools are up to the BoJ, closely monitoring economic indicators and market situations. Important that the government position secures market confidence. Will ensure fiscal sustainability to gain market trust. BoJ can adjust monetary policy regardless of what the government said. Predicts gradual increases in interest rates as the government is engaged in a proactive fiscal policy. Want to speed up discussions on expansion of JGB products targeting households. Japan's GPIF spokesperson said they are aware of Finance Minister Katayama's comments but declines to comment. Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the government has consistently communicated its stance of taking policy that heeds to fiscal sustainability. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) began the session on a weaker footing despite APAC optimism ahead of SK Hynixâs US debut (KOSPI +2.5% at close). Geopolitical newsflow quietened overnight, as such energy benchmarks are off best levels with Brent around USD 75/bbl. IBEX continues to outperform after it slumped earlier in the week (also has more defensive composition), while tech heavy AEX is the worst performer as top constituent ASML looks to SKâs ADR debut. European sectors opened with a positive bias and continue this way. Comms and Travel/Leisure outperform, Tech and Energy are the laggards for the above factors. In terms of individual movers, Infineon (-2.7%) said it is raising prices in some segments; EasyJet (+14%) agreed to a GBP 5.7bln takeover by Apollo at 715p/shr; Vodafone (+11%) French telecom tycoon Niel acquired E&âs stake for a GBP 0.15/shr premium. Top European News UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce a new City "skills compact" that will commit financial firms to retraining thousands of workers for the AI revolution, The Guardian reported. FX G10s are mixed against the Buck. JPY leads after FinMin Katayama touted measures to promote domestic inflows, Kiwi continues to eek gains post-RBNZ as markets look to price a cumulative 50bps tightening by year end and NOK is the worst performer after broadly cool inflation data. USD a touch weaker as JPY firms alongside the tempered recent Gulf updates. Geopolitical newsflow quietened overnight, with energy benchmarks off best levels with Brent around USD 75/bbl, about 5 Bucks off the weekâs highs. DXY slipped throughout APAC as the JPY firmed, but found buyers below 21DMA at 100.85 which has proven support in recent sessions. JPY digests updates from FinMin Katayama who said she was to pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. This, on the face of it, would be a textbook tactic to encourage domestic investment and passively limit outflows, especially with a large composition (50%) of pension funds allocated to foreign investments. Several strategists note this is a positive sign in attempts to shore up the currency; though CapEco said âMuch of its domestic bond portfolio is invested passively, and shifting more assets into domestic bonds would come at a sizeable fiscal cost if it requires selling equitiesâ, and others highlight Katayama is not in a position to direct changes, it would be under the jurisdiction of the Labour Ministry. USD/JPY gradually trundled lower from a 162.50 peak, to mark a trough below 161.30 (session low 161.28), with a modest kneejerk lower on not-too-surprising BoJ sources. ING notes the JPY-funded carry keeps risks to the upside for the pair. NOK is the clear underperformer vs. both the USD and SEK after the soft inflation data series. Most metrics cooled beneath expectations, core Y/Y the sole figure rising above consensus, albeit unch. from May. CPI-ATE, the Norges Bankâs preferred gauge of inflation fell was 2.9%, well below the Bankâs estimate of 3.3%, will likely provide conviction for doves with the bank likely to remain on hold in the August meeting; then tighten in September should the next (August) CPI metrics not provide a dovish surprise. NOK/SEK fell from a 0.9940 peak to mark a trough at 0.9882. 8th July low at 0.9861 is the next level below. South Korean Forex Authority said USD/KRW market remains misaligned with economic fundamentals. Fixed Income Overall, fixed benchmarks are firmer in reaction to the modest but increasing pullback seen in the energy space overnight and as JGBs lead on domestic updates. JGBs got to a high of 127.76 in the European morning, continuing the overnight rally after comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who said that pension funds should be encouraged to invest more in the domestic market. Commentary that underpinned Japanese assets across the board, and sent the 10yr yield lower by around 16bps on the day, down to 2.71% and now essentially flat on the month, reversing from the 2.89% YTD high. Commentary that also lifted peers at the time. While the shift would be a positive for the Japanese market generally, there are a few unknowns, most pertinently being whether Katayama can make such an announcement as the GPIF is under the Labour Ministry, not the Finance Ministry. As such, for FX in particular, there is an argument that Katayamaâs commentary is conducting another form of jawboning, and therefore the move may well fade in the days/weeks ahead, unless a relevant official to the GPIF (i.e. Ueno, or PM Takaichi) backs the shift publicly. USTs got to a 109-12 peak in the early morning, as energy hit a low and the JGB-driven move topped out. Since, newsflow has been particularly light with the market essentially waiting for a resumption of negotiations or strikes, though as is often the case we might not get clarity on the next step until the weekend. Bunds followed suit, peaking at 125.74 with gains of around 35 ticks. Specifics limited. Continued focus on the EU funding plans, and the lack of agreement on the next 7yr plan is arguably supporting EGBs for net-contributing nations, as no agreement would see the current EUR 1.4tln figure continue as opposed to the planned uplift to EUR 2tln. Gilts opened lower by a few ticks, before then swiftly moving above the 88.00 mark to a 88.07 peak, in-fitting with the above. Action that leaves it just above Wednesdayâs high but someway shy of the 88.93 opening level at the start of the week. Last night the first tally was done for the Labour nominations, and while the count theoretically leaves space for a challenger it is not realistic and therefore Burnham is now formally, for all intents and purposes, the incoming UK PM. Italy sold EUR 7.5bln vs exp. 6.0-7.5bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 & 3.95% 2041 BTPs. China's MOF sold 2-year and 3-year bonds. 2-year sold at 1.2305%. 3-year sold at 1.2629%. Australia sold AUD 900mln 1.75% 2032 AGBs: b/c 3.16x (prev. 4.10x), average yield 4.6189% (prev. 4.1987%). Commodities The geopolitical situation appears to have calmed down this morning, with no fresh reports of strikes on Iran/regional neighbours. However, the situation remains tense given some of yesterdayâs actions. Iran reported a couple of strikes at two military bases, but US officials denied any involvement of this. Despite the earlier reports, some Iranian officials denied any explosions taking place. Despite the recent flare-up, a US official stated that the US remains committed to a resolution with Iran and technical discussions are ongoing. This, alongside the lack of new strikes overnight has led to a bearish bias in crude benchmarks this morning. Brent Sepâ26 (-0.2%) is only mildly lower and trades at the towards the mid-point of a USD 75.36-76.95/bbl range. Some mild downticks were seen in the benchmark after the release of the IEA Oil Market Report. It cut 2026 oil demand, noted that the UAE is upping its supply and oil transits are passing through the Hormuz. Spot gold (-0.6%) trades lower this morning, hovering on either side of the USD 4.1k/oz mark; currently within a USD 4,094-4,134/oz band. The range today is very thin, amidst the lack of pertinent newsflow and fairly steady USD. Elsewhere, base metals hold a negative bias. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,455-13,562/t range. For aluminium, analysts at Morgan Stanley recently stated that they see a smaller supply deficit in 2026, and likely to move into a surplus from 2027. Oman has set its OSP at USD 69.29/bbl for September delivery. IEA OMR: forecasts global oil demand in 2026 to fall by 1.05mln BPD (prev. exp. 1.12mln); global oil demand recovery is under way. Global oil demand estimated at 103.46mln bpd for 2026 and is expected to grow by 2mln BPD in 2027 and reach 105.47mln BPD. Oil supply may expand 7.5mln BPD in 2027 if transits improve. A fire broke out at two oil product storage facilities due to a UAV attack in the Rostov region, according to the governor; fires are being pushed out in Taganrog's Seaport, reported no injuries. Krasnodar task force said a fire has broken out at the Ilsky oil refinery due to the fall of a drone's debris, Interfax reported. QatarEnergy set August Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai -USD 5/bbl; Land Crude OSP at -USD 4.50/bbl, according to a pricing document. China National Summer grain output reached 150.7mln tonnes, +0.7% Y/Y. Trade/Tariffs China's MOFCOM announces a temporary ban on helium exports. US White House announces the adjustment of imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines, and aircraft and engine parts into the US; no immediate tariffs be imposed under section 232 to address the threatened impairment to the national security. Central Banks BoJ reportedly to keep rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance and also raise growth outlook, according to sources. PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7989 vs exp. 6.7931 (prev. 6.8036); strongest midpoint since February 2023. NBP's Wnorowski said signal about possible motion to cut interest rates in September is premature; do not see space for more than one cut this year. Geopolitics: Middle-East Qatar, Pakistan and other regional mediators are trying to de-escalate tensions between the US and Iran and revive negotiations on a nuclear deal, Axios reported citing sources. A member of the National Security Commission of Iran's parliament said the UAE will pay the price for cooperating with America. A US official said talks with Iran will continue, Fox's Hasnie reported; The administration is still committed to finding a resolution so technical talks continue to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. Iran's attacks on ships in the streets are acts of terrorism. The MoU is performance-based, and Iran's actions constitute failed performance at an unacceptable level. Israel reportedly shared new intelligence with the US that indicated a new Iranian plan to kill US President Trump, WSJ reported citing sources. A US official said the US remains committed to a resolution with Iran and technical discussions are ongoing. Turkey has decided it will not join the Canadian Defence Bank initiative at this point, sources suggest. The Israeli army said "we will continue our operations to eliminate any threat and will not allow Hezbollah to harm us", Al Jazeera reported. Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces are conducting extensive demolitions in southern Lebanon. Krasnodar task force said a fire has broken out at the Ilsky oil refinery due to the fall of a drone's debris, Interfax reported. Pakistan has begun mediating between Libya's rival eastern and western data centres with the backing of the US and Saudi Arabia, Nikkei reported citing sources. Lebanese media reported of new Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon, Tasnim reported. Four Japanese-linked vessels remain in the Persian Gulf, Kyodo reported. Konarak Governor said this area was targeted by enemy fighter jets in two stages on Thursday evening. Geopolitics: Ukraine Ilsky (138k BPD), Russia oil refinery fire has now been extinguished. US Event Calenadar The US economic data calendar empty for the session DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I was hoping that by now the latest on the Iranian conflict wouldnât be the lead story but it has of course returned to the top of the headlines this week. The latest is that Bloomberg reports overnight indicate that âtechnical talksâ continue between US and Iranian officials despite the clashes this week. There were also Bloomberg reports that President Trump and PM Netanyahu spoke Thursday according to the PMâs office. To be fair sentiment turned back more positively late Wednesday night when Trump suggested that the Iranians were desperate for a deal. So markets have generally been more positive since. So for now we can go back to trying to guess whether weâll wake up to the KOSPI being up or down more than 5%. If you guessed in the positive side this morning youâd be correct as itâs surging +5.11% as I type, after officially entering bear-market territory yesterday. The rally has of course been driven by strong gains in semiconductor stocks with the record-breaking $26.5 billion listing by chipmaker SK Hynix helping to reinforce confidence that the AI investment cycle remains intact. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kongâs Hang Seng Index (+1.85%) has climbed to its highest level since June 17, while Japanâs Nikkei 225 (+1.77%) is also posting strong gains. The CSI 300 (+0.49%), Shanghai Composite (+0.75%), and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.51%) are also up. US and European futures are down between a tenth and two tenths of a percent though. 10yr USTs are -1.2bps lower trading at 4.54% and oil is fairly flat.  In Japan, long-dated government bond yields are falling and the yen strengthening after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that the government intends to encourage pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase allocations to domestic financial assets. The 20-year JGB yield is down -7.8bps at 3.78%, while the 10-year is -8.7bps lower at 2.778%. The Japanese yen (+0.51%) is rallying for a second consecutive session, trading at 161.54 against dollar as we go to print. There is some scepticism here internally as to whether it'll be easy to encourage domestic pension funds to automatically buy more JGBs. The view is that asset allocations decisions are more slow moving and might actually favour equities first. However for now the move is being seen as a sign that action is being considered.  Ahead of all that, markets saw a bit of a relief rally yesterday, thanks to easing geopolitical fears, decent tech headlines, and a respectable batch of data. So collectively, that helped to power bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly as falling oil prices reassured concerns about a fresh surge of inflation. So by the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.81%) and Europeâs STOXX 600 (+0.78%) both advanced, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (-4.2bps) and bunds (-0.8bps) also fell back.  Those oil price declines followed headlines suggesting that the escalation between the US and Iran might not prove as serious as initially feared. Most notably, sentiment was supported by comments from President Trump late on Wednesday night, that we mentioned yesterday, saying that Iran wanted âto make a deal so badlyâ. So when US and European markets reopened yesterday, they were buoyed by the fact that Trump was still talking about some kind of agreement. So that supported oil prices lower, with Brent crude down -2.20% on the day to $76.30/bbl. And in turn, that eased fears around inflation, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-9.0bps) falling to 2.05%, after rising 27bps on Wednesday. This backdrop meant that investors dialled back their expectations for imminent rate hikes again, particularly in Europe. For instance, the amount of ECB rate hikes priced by December came down -8.5bps on the day to 31bps. And over at the Fed, the probability of a hike at the upcoming July meeting fell back from 31% to 24%. So that provided a decent tailwind for sovereign bonds in turn, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-7.2bps) and BTPs (-7.0bps) all coming down. Whilst lower oil prices helped sentiment, markets got another boost yesterday from the latest tech headlines, which saw the Philly semiconductor index (+3.06%) post its best daily performance in 3 weeks. That included a very strong gain for Micron (+4.52%), who raised their planned spending on new US plants to $250bn by 2035, which was $50bn on top of previously announced commitments. The rally also saw the SK Hynix ADR officially became the largest foreign company offering as the South Korean chipmaker raised $26.5bn â greater than expected and just ahead of the $25bn previously raised by Alibaba. So that chip rally helped to lift US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (+0.81%) recovering after back-to-back declines on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rally was fueled by investors rotating from defensives industries back into growth and cyclical names. Autos (+2.91%), Tech Hardware (+1.99%), Semis, +(1.90%), and Banks (+1.61%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Consumer Staples (-2.04%), Food & Bev (-1.77%), and Household Products (-1.58%) lagged. And in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.78%) advanced for the first time this week with a similar rotation from defensives into cyclicals. Speaking of tech, there was an interesting acknowledgement of AI-driven inflation from New York Fed President Williams. He spoke about the potential for demand driven by AI to raise inflation, and said if it âcreates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think thatâs the kind of situation where you donât look through thisâ. Meanwhile on inflation more generally, he said that if core PCE were at âtwo-tenths a month in the second half of this year, that would be consistent with my view of a disinflationary process thatâs continuingâ. But he also said if it were higher, â that would be a sign of inflation a bit more persistent.â The other Fed news from yesterday was the release of the leadership teams of the five task forces that Chair Warsh announced to examine the Fedâs current approach and processes. The areas that the Fed are examining are the communications strategy, the use of the balance sheet, the quality and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation framework. The teams are mix of former policy makers, academics, and corporate leaders. Staying on central banks, yesterday also brought the minutes of last monthâs ECB meeting, where they hiked rates for the first time since 2023. It spoke of inflation pressures, and said how âFurther indirect effects were in the pipeline, pointing to more broadening of inflationary pressures across the economyâ. Moreover, there was an acknowledgment that âmemories of the 2022 high-inflation episode could make households and firms react more quickly than in the past, increasing the risk that price-setting and wage-bargaining behaviour would adjust.â Interestingly, there was also a discussion about what happened in 2011, when the ECB hiked rates before reversing course shortly after as the sovereign debt crisis became more severe. But the view was there were key differences with that period, including the lack of financial stress. Finally, the latest US data yesterday offered fresh reassurance on the labour market, with the weekly initial jobless claims coming in at 215k in the week ending July 4 (vs. 217k expected). So that took the 4-week moving average down to 218.75k, and so far at least, claims remain well beneath their summer peaks in 2023, 2024 and 2025. However, existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June, falling back to an annualised rate of 4.09m (vs. 4.20m expected). Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include Italyâs industrial production for May, and Canadaâs employment for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECBâs Vujcic and Stournaras. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 08:07
Israel Braces for Renewed Fighting as Ceasefire Crumbles; Trump Calls Iran Leadership 'Out of Control'
Israel Braces for Renewed Fighting as Ceasefire Crumbles; Trump Calls Iran Leadership 'Out of Control' JERUSALEM, Israel â War is escalating again in the Middle East, just three weeks after a ceasefire was supposed to silence the guns. Iranian forces have now launched attacks on U.S. military targets throughout the Persian Gulf, retaliating for recent American airstrikes inside Iran. The military action raises concerns that the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with regional allies now preparing for what may come next. Israel is bracing for the possibility that Iran could target Israeli air bases used by U.S. aircraft, including refueling tankers at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport. President Trump met with his national security team on Thursday to discuss his next move. The administration is reportedly considering new options, including reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. "We have many ways we can win, but we've already won militarily," Trump stated. "They have very little." He added, "They have a little left, and they want to make a deal so badly. They called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly. I just don't know if they're worthy of making a deal. I don't know that they're going to honor the deal. That's the problem." *** AI tools threaten to hide CBN News from your online searches! Sign up for CBN Newsletters today to ensure you can still find the latest news from a Christian perspective.*** The president also questioned Tehran's leadership, declaring, "They're sort of crazy, to be honest with you. They're sort of crazy. They're a little bit out of control."hey called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly. I just don't know if they're worthy of making a deal. I don't know that they're going to honor the deal. That's the problem." With more banners in Iran calling for Trump's death, throngs gathered in Iran for the ongoing funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed early in the war. His funeral ends a week of mass processions that have fueled nationalist fervor among some in the population. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told military graduates that he is ready to return to fight if necessary. He remarked, "The war has not yet ended. Alongside the old challenges, new challenges are emerging. Axes fall, and axes rise. We give our opinion on it. We are prepared for every scenario, and we know one thing: We must always be stronger than our enemies." Reports from Israel indicate that Jerusalem is prepared to join with American forces in attacking Iranian targets. CBN's Faith In Action invites you to pray for peace in Israel. Sign the petition and commit to pray today! Defense Minister Israel Katz delivered an even stronger warning, saying, "The IDF is on alert, and ready to renew the campaign, to reestablish aerial superiority, and to carry out a blue-white (Israeli) strike in Iran to remove threats, even for a third time. If we will have to return, we will return with even greater force." Netanyahu also reaffirmed that Israeli troops will remain in southern Lebanon for as long as necessary to protect Israel's northern communities. The growing conflict is shaking the global economy. Oil prices surged, and stock markets fell after Trump said he believes the ceasefire has effectively collapsed. "We just hit them very hard. And I say we hit them twenty to one," he estimated. "Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them twenty." Reports from Israeli news outlets say Israel is warning the U.S. about a new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. The president and prime minister spoke by phone on Thursday about operations in the Persian Gulf. Netanyahu also warned the president about the leadership in Turkey and its growing threats against Israel, calling them "humanity's common problem." This comes as the White House considers selling advanced American fighter jets to Turkey.
Israel alerted US to fresh Iranian assassination plot against Trump: Report
Israel alerted US to fresh Iranian assassination plot against Trump: Report WASHINGTON, DC: Reports published on Thursday, July 9, claimed Israel recently shared intelligence with the United States indicating that Tehran had developed a new assassination plot targeting President Donald Trump. The report, first published by The Wall Street Journal and cited by multiple outlets, comes amid continuing tensions between Washington and Tehran and years after Iran vowed retaliation for the 2020 US strike that killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. Israel shares intelligence about new threat against Donald Trump According to the report, Israeli officials recently passed intelligence to the United States suggesting Iran had developed a fresh plan to assassinate Trump. The alleged intelligence surfaced as discussions continue over how to handle Iran following last month's conflict and the fragile ceasefire that followed US military action against Iranian nuclear sites. While neither Israel nor Iran immediately commented on the report, it quickly drew attention because of the long-running threats Iran has made against Trump since the killing of Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020. The White House referred questions about the report to remarks Trump made earlier this week. Donald Trump says Iran wants to target him Speaking about Iran, Trump said he believes he remains a target of the country's leadership. "They want to take out the US leader - me. I'm on whatever list. I saw this morning I'm on every single one of their lists," Trump said. "And, so far, I guess I've been a bit lucky, but maybe that doesn't last very long." The president also delivered a sharp warning while discussing Iran. "These are evil, sick people. And we have to root out that cancer. That cancer. You know what you do? You've got to cut out cancer early. And that's the way I feel," Trump added. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu remain in contact despite policy differences The report also noted that the intelligence emerged during a period in which Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reportedly differed on how aggressively to confront Iran following recent military clashes. According to the report, Netanyahu has favored maintaining military pressure on Tehran, while Trump has focused on preserving a ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian targets. Despite those differences, the two leaders spoke on Thursday and agreed to continue coordination between the United States and Israel, according to a statement from Netanyahu's office. The statement said Trump also updated the Israeli leader on recent US activity in the Gulf region. Iran has repeatedly vowed retaliation for the US operation that killed Soleimani, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. According to the report, anti-Trump sentiment was also visible during recent events in Iran, where mourners at the funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly chanted for Trump's death and displayed a banner reading, "We Will Kill Trump."
Trump, Netanyahu discuss Turkey and US moves in Persian Gulf amid Iran tensions
US President Donald Trump and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Thursday about Turkey and American military moves in the Persian Gulf, Netanyahuâs office said. Trump is learnt to have told Netanyahu that the US ought to âfinish the jobâ in Iran as the ceasefire is essentially âoverâ. The discussions were held between the two leaders over a phone call amid the fresh escalation of the West Asia crisis. The call followed new US airstrikes on Iran, launched hours after Trump said Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had effectively ended the truce. Iran retaliated by targeting US-allied Kuwait and Qatar and accused Washington of striking near its only nuclear power plant. Trump has sent conflicting signals approving repeated strikes while denying a return to full-scale war deepening uncertainty over what comes next, according to news agency Associated Press (AP). Trump has said he believes the ceasefire is over and the US should âfinish the job,â even as he insists this doesnât mean a full-scale war. Netanyahuâs office said he raised concerns over Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄanâs rhetoric against Israel, days after Trump signalled he may approve F-35 jet sales to Ankara. Netanyahu has warned this would endanger Israel. Trump also updated Netanyahu on US Gulf deployments, the office said. Meanwhile, a US official said the Israel-Lebanon framework deal will move to technical talks in Rome, with Hezbollahâs disarmament remaining a flashpoint. Iranâs foreign minister Abbas Araghchi held calls with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Oman and Pakistanâs military chief, repeating Tehranâs claim that Washington broke the truce first a charge the US denies, citing Iranian strikes on commercial vessels. (With inputs from Associated Press)
Trump On Target Again? Israel Shares Intel On New Iranian Assassination Plot: Report
Israel has shared fresh intelligence with the United States indicating that Iran had developed a new plot to assassinate US President Donald Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The intelligence marks an escalation in Iran's long-standing threats against Trump, who has reportedly, repeatedly been targeted in retaliation for the January 2020 US strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. The White House referred queries on the report to Trump's own remarks made on Wednesday, WSJ said. Addressing threats to his life at a NATO summit news conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Trump said he was on "whatever list" Iran maintained, adding that he had "been a bit lucky" so far. He described those behind the threats as "evil, sick people" and said "you've got to cut out cancer early." The intelligence surfaced amid reported friction between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over how to proceed following last month's conflict with Iran. Netanyahu has pushed for continued military pressure on Tehran, while Trump has sought to preserve a fragile ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. ALSO READ: Multiple Explosions Heard In Iran's Bushehr; Jets Target Naval Military Zone; US Denies Involvement Netanyahu's office, however, rejected characterisations of a rift, saying the two leaders spoke on Thursday and agreed to continue close coordination between their countries. The statement said Trump also briefed Netanyahu on recent US military activity in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Iranian mourners at the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were seen chanting for Trump's death and displaying a banner reading "We Will Kill Trump." ALSO READ: Pakistan, Qatar Step In To Mediate As Fresh US-Iran Clashes Spark War Fears Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories â On NDTV Profit.
US prepared for potential strikes on Iran, conducting diplomacy for now â TV
NEW YORK, July 10. /TASS/. Even as the United States is conducting diplomacy to avoid escalation in the Middle East, it is preparing for potential strikes if needed tonight, CNN reported, citing sources. According to them, US forces are preparing for potential strikes, while Washington is currently letting diplomacy take the lead. The situation is dynamic and strikes could resume if needed, US officials told the TV channel. Earlier, Reuters reported, citing a US official, that technical talks between US and Iranian negotiators are ongoing. The United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28. Among other Iranian officials, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed as a result of airstrikes. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) providing for an immediate ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. Afterwards, talks were held at the Swiss resort of Burgenstock with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators in the implementation of the MoU. According to a joint statement issued by Pakistan and Qatar following the conclusion of the first round of talks, the meeting between Iranian and US representatives took place in a positive and constructive atmosphere. Encouraging progress was made, and a foundation for further technical talks was established. However, in the night onto July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes on Iran, accusing it of violating bilateral agreements, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel shares intelligence warning Iran plotted new assassination attempt against Trump: report
Israel recently shared intelligence with the United States indicating Iran had developed a fresh plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, according to a Wall Street Journal report Thursday citing people familiar with the matter. The reported intelligence would mark an escalation in the longstanding threats against Trump, whom Iran has repeatedly vowed to retaliate against over the 2020 U.S. strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The White House referred Fox News Digital to Trump's remarks Wednesday when asked about the report. TRUMP FACES UNPRECEDENTED THIRD ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT "They want to take out the US leader â me. Iâm on whatever list. I saw this morning Iâm on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess Iâve been a bit lucky, but maybe that doesnât last very long. These are evil, sick people. And we have to root out that cancer. That cancer. You know what you do? Youâve got to cut out cancer early. And thatâs the way I feel." Fox News Digital has also reached out to Israel's Embassy in Washington and Iran's Mission to the United Nations for comment. The Journal reported the intelligence surfaced as Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have diverged in recent weeks over how to proceed following last month's conflict with Iran. Netanyahu has advocated for continuing military pressure on Tehran, while Trump has sought to preserve a fragile ceasefire after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. NETANYAHU REJECTS REPORTS OF A RIFT WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP, SAYS THE TWO REMAIN ALIGNED ON IRAN Trump and Netanyahu spoke Thursday and agreed to continue coordination between the two countries, according to a statement from Netanyahu's office, which said Trump also updated the Israeli leader on recent U.S. activity in the Gulf. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP Iranian mourners at the funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei chanted for Trump's death and displayed a banner reading, "We Will Kill Trump," according to the Journal. Iran has publicly vowed for years to retaliate against Trump over the U.S. operation that killed Soleimani, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in Baghdad in January 2020.
Fate of Iran Ceasefire Uncertain After Escalation | Balance of Power: Late Edition 07/09/2026
"Balance of Power: Late Edition" focuses on the intersection of politics and global business. On today's show, Wendy Sherman, former Deputy Secretary of State in the Biden administration and lead US negotiator for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, says diplomacy with Iran is "quite challenged" and argues recent negotiations were "never serious or as complex as they needed to be." Matt Robison, a former Democratic campaign manager and legislative director who has worked with members of Maine's congressional delegation, says Democrats are getting a chance to reset Maine's Senate race after Graham Platner suspended his campaign following a sexual assault allegation he denies. Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, says oil markets have held up better than many feared during the latest US-Iran escalation. But Sommers warns prices will remain elevated as long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted. (Source: Bloomberg)
New attacks raise questions about what comes next in the Iran war
Give now to help PBS News start our new fiscal year strong. Will Weissert, Associated Press Will Weissert, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Leave your feedback WASHINGTON (AP) â President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says he's not sure he wants a deal anymore and says the U.S. should "finish the job." But he also insists that continued attacks do not mean a return to war or long-term action. The confusion and uncertainty in Trump's mixed messaging and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave major questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks after difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial deal between the longtime adversaries. WATCH: Trump says ceasefire is 'over' as U.S. launches more strikes on Iran The whipsawing rhetoric could be a strategy to increase the pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships transporting oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and bend to U.S. demands on its nuclear program â something Trump has tried before. Subscribe to Hereâs the Deal, our politics newsletter for analysis you wonât find anywhere else. Thank you. Please check your inbox to confirm. Whether it is a negotiation tactic or a signal of an escalation in fighting, mediators are scrambling to save the interim deal and the actions risk further inflaming tensions â which could spell problems for Republicans in November's midterm elections if gas prices stay high. Trump warned Wednesday that a new round of U.S. attacks was coming, even as he attempted to shrug off suggestions of a return to full-scale war. Hours later, the military announced it was carrying out new attacks on Iran that were meant to "further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz." READ MORE: U.S. and Iran exchange intensifying fire across the Mideast, threatening the interim deal to end war "Anything that happens is going to happen very fast," Trump said earlier. "We're not looking for a long time." A regional intelligence official involved in the mediation efforts said the conflict had reached a critical stage as mutual mistrust rises. But high-level communications are happening around the clock to salvage the ceasefire, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate behind-the-scenes negotiations. The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Qatar, as well as Egypt's intelligence chief, are leading the efforts, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan â whose country hosted the NATO summit that wrapped Wednesday â and leaders from Saudi Arabia are also involved, the official said. The U.S. is upset about ships being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and accuses Iran of slow-playing discussions on curtailing its nuclear program, the official said. Nuclear talks were a major next step to try to turn the interim deal announced last month into a lasting end to the war. Tehran, meanwhile, says Washington is the one violating the agreement regarding the strait and failing to ensure that a ceasefire in Lebanon, including an Israeli withdrawal, is being implemented, the official said. Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that "we're still in negotiating mode, no matter what the president says." "This is part of negotiating, and declaring that the MOU is over is part of the negotiation as well," Eisenstadt said, referring to the memorandum of understanding that the ceasefire was built on. Trump, though, has been explicit in public comments, saying he's lost interest in preserving the ceasefire: "I think it's over." "We can play games, but I'm not sure I want to make a deal," he said during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, adding that the U.S. military might "just finish the job." Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's lead negotiator, said the Trump administration had repeatedly violated the terms of the initial pact, forcing the country to respond appropriately. "The era of bullying and extortion is over," Qalibaf posted on X. "It leads nowhere. We don't fold." Pakistan, which helped broker the ceasefire, said renewed conflict is in "no one's interest" and urged both sides to uphold their commitments. "There is no alternative to continued engagement, dialogue and diplomacy to achieve shared goal of peace in the region," its Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Trump, nonetheless, dismissed Tehran's leaders, calling them "scum" and "sick people." Just last month, Trump said Iran's leadership was "very rational" and "nice to deal with," while also calling the country's leaders "smart people." Speaking at an event in Milwaukee on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance, who led U.S. efforts to reach the initial deal with Tehran, said Iran was "well behaved for about a week." He added that lately the country had begun attacking the strait and said, "If they shoot at ships, we're going to knock the hell out of them." Before the U.S. and Iran reached their first, two-week ceasefire in April, Trump intensified his threats, pledging that American forces would bomb Iranian bridges, roads and power plants. He even posted online, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." He repeated dire threats before the tentative 60-day deal to end the war was reached last month. Trump likes to seek ways to negotiate from a position of strength, and he could be looking for more leverage with new strikes. But being unequivocal about the end of the ceasefire also could free up Iran militarily â which could again roil oil prices and financial markets. Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, argued that escalating threats may be a riskier maneuver this time around, given the domestic and international stakes for the U.S. "It certainly looks like an effort to turn up the military heat without yet closing the diplomatic door," Vaez said. "But coercive bargaining is a dangerous game: At some point, a pressure campaign can acquire a momentum of its own and become the war it was ostensibly meant to avoid." He added, however, that Iran still has every reason to return to the table because it desperately needs the economic relief that was promised under the interim deal. Trump also has sent mixed signals about the fallout. He long insisted that rising gas prices for Americans didn't factor into his calculations on Iran â only to say that part of the reason he agreed to the interim deal was to avoid an "economic catastrophe." He has since touted the falling price of oil after the deal was reached. The president again resumed his past threats to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure, possibly including electric plants and desalinization plants, and to seize the oil-production hub of Kharg Island. "We may take over Kharg Island," he said. "There's not a thing they could do about it." Still, the midterm elections â when Republicans hope to retain control of the House and Senate â are now less than four months away. Oil prices rising again amid greater uncertainty about the war means Americans will likely continue to see higher prices at the pump. The president tried to play down such concerns, saying, "Any time we hit them, it goes up a little bit â $2." In fact, U.S. oil futures jumped far higher and may keep climbing â even as Trump acknowledged, "As oil goes, so goes everything else." He argued that an increase in oil prices was worth it to bar Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "It's all right." Amiri reported from New York and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writer Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report. Support trusted journalism and civil dialogue. Support Provided By: Learn more
Israeli prime minister says Iran war âhas not endedâ
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Iran war âhas not ended,â amid military escalation between Tehran and Washington in recent days, Anadolu reports. âThe war has not ended. There are new challenges,â Netanyahu said at an air force graduation ceremony at Hatzerim Air Base in southern Israel, as cited by the daily Yedioth Ahronoth. âMaintaining air superiority is a fundamental pillar of Israelâs national security doctrine. It is key to preserving stability in the turbulent Middle East.â Iran and the US exchanged attacks over the past two days amid escalation following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and the US launched joint attacks against Iran in February, killing more than 3,000 people, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran retaliated with drone and missile strikes against Israel and Gulf countries hosting US assets. Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir also said the military campaign against Iran is ânot over.â âOn the drawing board are new plans. Major operations are still expected to lie ahead of us. Be prepared,â he said in brief remarks. Iran and the US reached a Pakistan-brokered memorandum of understanding on June 17 aimed at ending their military conflict and paving the way for a lasting peace agreement. However, on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump declared that the memorandum was âover,â effectively ending the agreement and triggering a new round of military confrontation.
Pakistan, Qatar Step In To Mediate As Fresh US-Iran Clashes Spark War Fears
Pakistan and Qatar are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table as renewed military exchanges threaten to derail the fragile ceasefire, CNN reported, citing regional sources. According to the report, Pakistan and Qatar were key mediators during earlier negotiations in Switzerland that culminated in the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in mid-June. Oman also played a facilitating role during previous rounds of diplomacy. Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday urged all parties to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further destabilise the region. ALSO READ: 14 killed In US Strikes On Iran; Bahrain Sounds Nationwide Alarm As Tehran Retaliates Across Gulf "There is no alternative to continued engagement, dialogue and diplomacy to achieve shared goal of peace in the region," the ministry said in a statement. Pakistan also called on all sides to honour their commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. "Pakistan urges all sides to uphold their respective commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which remains an enduring foundation for understanding, mutual respect and shared prosperity for the region and beyond," the ministry added. The diplomatic push comes as the ceasefire appeared to weaken further on Thursday, with both countries launching fresh attacks for a second consecutive day. According to the US military, American forces struck 90 targets along Iran's coastline overnight. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran also said it fired 10 ballistic missiles towards a US military base in northern Jordan. Jordanian authorities said they intercepted missiles that entered the country's airspace and triggered air raid sirens. ALSO READ: Renewed US-Iran Tensions Cloud India's Iran Oil Import Plans Separately, Iranian state media reported that US forces struck multiple locations in the coastal province of Bushehr around midday local time, including the perimeter of a nuclear power plant and a fishing pier, citing a regional official. Washington has not confirmed carrying out those strikes. Meanwhile, Qatar intensified its diplomatic outreach. The country's foreign minister held calls with counterparts from Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as tensions escalated across the Gulf. Doha also condemned attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated the need for dialogue and diplomacy, according to CNN. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories â On NDTV Profit.
Christopher Walker: The West Must Stop Treating Russia, China, And Iran As Isolated Challenges
WASHINGTON -- Germany's recent decision to summon the Chinese ambassador following reports that Russian soldiers may have been trained in China has renewed scrutiny of Beijing's support for Moscow's war against Ukraine. For Christopher Walker, vice president of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), the reported training should not be viewed as an isolated development. Rather, he argues, it reflects a broader pattern of cooperation among authoritarian governments that increasingly work together across diplomatic, economic, military and information domains, even without a formal alliance. In an interview with RFE/RL, Walker discusses China's support for Russia's war effort, the evolving relationships among Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran, and why democracies need a sustained, long-term strategy to compete with authoritarian powers. RFE/RL: Germany has summoned the Chinese ambassador over intelligence reports that Beijing may have trained Russian soldiers. Does this represent a significant new development? Christopher Walker: I think it's fair to say that China has afforded the Russian war effort in Ukraine systematic backing, and so it probably shouldn't come as such a huge surprise that the Chinese authorities apparently have elected to provide support of this kind to the Russian war effort. As other observers have noted, China's support really has been pivotal to Russia's war effort. RFE/RL: Does Beijing's role now extend well beyond diplomatic support to becoming an essential economic and logistical partner for Moscow? Walker: I think China has tried to have it both ways by signaling through its information and propaganda channels that it seeks to operate as an honest broker or as some sort of bystander, but its actions and support betray that idea, both in terms of this latest news relating to the apparent support for Russian soldiers who were trained and then went on to fight in Ukraine, but also in economic terms, in the provision of spare parts, diplomatic backing, and information and propaganda support. I think these regimes, in part because they don't have the democratic consent of their own populations, fear their own populations." This is, in a sense, part of a package of support that China has been providing to Russia effectively since the full-scale attack on Ukraine began [in February 2022]. Moreover, the relationship that has evolved between Russia and China dates back even further. One could argue to Xi Jinping's arrival as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and other top leadership positions in 2012 and Vladimir Putin's return to the Russian presidency around the same time. Over time, they forged a very close relationship⌠They have met quite possibly up to about 70 times, either in person or virtually, since Putin returned to office and Xi Jinping assumed the top leadership position in China. They really have reached what we've described as a shared consciousness in the way they approach the wider world. RFE/RL: A recent CEPA report examines the evolving relationship between Russia, China, and Iran. To what extent have these governments developed a coordinated strategic partnership, and how does that affect the US-led alliance system? Walker: Well, it may not be the case that they're synchronized in an extensive way. I think what they've arrived at is a working relationship where they provide support on an as-needed basis among these different powers. As we note in the report, it isn't always seamless cooperation, and it isn't limitless. But on important tracks of activity relating to economic support, energy support, or in certain instances military support -- we can't forget that Iran was providing drones to Russia at scale to attack Ukraine over an extensive period of time. All of these regimes, I think, see the benefit of working with each other in a meaningful way. In many respects, certainly from the vantage point of 15 or 20 years ago, I think this relationship has evolved in an unanticipated way to the extent that the regimes in Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing work quite effectively together, even if it isn't technically synchronized. RFE/RL: Your report notes that these governments often cooperate without the kind of formal institutional structures found in NATO. Should policymakers view that flexibility as a weakness, or would it be a mistake to assume that the absence of a formal alliance limits their ability to cooperate effectively? Walker: Well, it may in its own ways be a bit of both. Vladimir Putin is mortgaging his country's future in part by making it a far weaker, dependent partner in the relationship with China." I think these regimes, in part because they don't have the democratic consent of their own populations, fear their own populations. Let's not forget the Iranian regime has, in recent months, killed thousands and thousands of the country's people. Russia brutalizes its own citizens in a variety of ways and sees tens of thousands of them choose to leave the country. China likewise runs arguably the most efficient techno-authoritarian machinery of any country on the planet. So, these are countries whose leadership clearly fears their own publics. In that sense, they are fragile. But at the same time, it would be irresponsible for the US and other free societies to take lightly the arrangement that has developed among these countries. In a sense, they are providing each other with surge capacity [the ability to quickly provide support when needed] and the kinds of benefits that come through collaboration -- benefits that democratic countries themselves should seek to achieve. RFE/RL: Some policymakers argue that Russia's growing economic dependence on China could eventually create tensions within their relationship, effectively making Moscow the junior partner. Do you see that imbalance as a vulnerability the West can exploit, or is their shared opposition to the US likely to outweigh those differences? Christopher Walker: Well, there too, I think the picture right now, in terms of the relationship between the leaderships in Beijing and Moscow, is that the antipathy toward the West and the desire to see the US weakened is there, and I suspect quite durable. At the same time, Vladimir Putin is mortgaging his country's future in part by making it a far weaker, dependent partner in the relationship with China. So, to the extent that creates fissures within the ruling elites in Russia, I think that's desirable in this context. Whether we can count on things developing quickly in the near term, I think that would be imprudent and irresponsible, because these regimes are there for life. They have no intention of leaving, and they behave accordingly. This requires, in my view, the sort of long-term, sustained commitment from the West and the US to contest these rivals that we face. These competitors are investing on multiple levels with an eye toward weakening the US. I think we and our natural allies need to be prepared for that competition over the longer haul. RFE/RL: Beyond military and economic cooperation, both Beijing and Moscow continue to invest heavily in global media and information activities. Analysts have often described Russian and Chinese information strategies as distinct, with Russia focused on disruption while China promotes a longer-term narrative about governance and international order. Increasingly, however, are their information efforts reinforcing one another? Walker: I think the relationship that has evolved over a protracted period of time between the information apparatuses in Russia and China now has overlap, whether that's by design or simply by coincidence, and we have to take it seriously in either case. For example, in Latin America today there is significant overlap in narratives promoted by both Chinese state media and Russian state media. Those narratives have, over recent years, also reinforced messaging coming from the regimes in Caracas and Havana. In that sense, you have a cluster of media activity operating from authoritarian sources across Spanish-speaking countries throughout the region. We see versions of this playing out in parts of sub-Saharan Africa as well as the Middle East. We have to take this seriously because if you're not competing, it almost stands to reason that the team that's on the field, investing resources and playing harder, is going to have an advantage. These narratives, which include consistent questioning of US prestige, come in different forms from both Russian and Chinese state media sources. I think that works to the strategic disadvantage of the US and deserves greater attention and sustained commitment. RFE/RL: How successful have Russia and China been in shaping public opinion in regions such as Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, particularly regarding Russia's war against Ukraine? Walker: If we use Russia's war against Ukraine as one indicator, it's striking to see the extent to which audiences in different parts of the world -- including but not limited to sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America -- view that conflict. Russia is unambiguously the aggressor. It launched an unprovoked attack against Ukraine. Yet that is not the perception in large parts of the world. That is due, at least in part, to the systematic dissemination of information and arguments from sources directed and managed by Beijing and Moscow that almost invariably frame events in that way. I think we have to take that seriously because if it can happen in that instance, of course it can happen on other issues, including the way the US is portrayed. This is not new. The Chinese and Russian states have been undertaking these global efforts for years -- going back well over a decade in the modern context -- and I think this is something we need to take very seriously.
Khamenei funeral signals Iranâs defiance and new regional order
The funeral of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was more than a national farewell. The sea of mourners in Tehran sent a message to the US and Israel that their attempt to break the Islamic republic had failed. Rather than looking weakened by the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, Iran presented itself as defiant, unified and determined to shape what comes next. That defiance and ability to survive now underpin Iranâs negotiating strategy, regional officials, diplomats and analysts say, depicting the funeral as the moment Tehran sought to transform endurance into leverage. NOT âA DIAMOND FOR A LOLLIPOPâ The war, they said, has underlined Iranâs leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and enabled it to demand that any deal on its nuclear program begins with recognition that its control over the vital oil chokepoint is a reality that must be accepted. A 60-day ceasefire was intended by Washington to revive diplomacy on stopping Iran developing a nuclear arsenal, but has instead opened a different contest. In this contest, Iranâs location rather than its uranium is its most powerful asset, with Tehran seeking to convert wartime gains into permanent strategic advantage by securing acceptance of its dominant position around the strait The 60-day clock toward a final deal following the ceasefire agreement and the accompanying memorandum of understanding is yet to start. In that vacuum, Iran is setting the pace. Although huge revenues might be earned from charging fees for vessels using the strait, Tehran sees Hormuz less as an economic asset than as a source of political legitimacy, Alex Vatanka of the US-based Middle East Institute said. âThe symbolic part is more important for the Iranians than revenues,â Vatanka said. âThey want some kind of symbolic acceptance that the strait is Iranâs. Itâs about accepting Iran as the sovereign power over the Strait.â Citing a Persian saying, Vatanka added: âWhy give away a diamond for a lollipop?â According to Tehranâs calculation, Hormuz is the diamond. Sanctions relief and frozen assets are the lollipop. âDIVINE BLESSINGâ Iranâs leadership has echoed this position. âThe Strait of Hormuz is our greatest power tool; we must properly protect this divine blessing,â Iranian parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said, adding that Iran would âunder no circumstances relinquish its rightsâ there. Iran is deliberately slowing negotiations to lock in what it sees as the warâs dividends before returning to the nuclear question, regional sources and diplomats say. For Tehran â which denies seeking a nuclear bomb â uranium can wait, but consolidating its position on Hormuz cannot, said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat with expertise on Iran. âIran is perfectly happy to play for time and just drag negotiations out,â Eyre said. âIt wants control of Hormuz and is holding talks to institutionalize that control.â That could mean embedding its influence through transit arrangements, coordination mechanisms or charges for services along the corridor that carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, while Gulf states wait to see whether Washington can or is able to reverse the new reality. Tehran believes US President Donald Trump â constrained by domestic politics and wary of another confrontation before midterm congressional elections to in November â is under more pressure to secure a deal than Iran is to make concessions. âThe Iranians know that President Trump wants to get out; he wants to move on,â Eyre said. âThey know they can squeeze him because time is on their side.â Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, said Washingtonâs military campaign had failed to break Iranâs leverage, leaving US diplomacy with a flawed ceasefire whose implementation has become a battleground. Tehran has little reason to engage seriously on its nuclear program until it is confident the new reality around Hormuz has been accepted and meaningful progress made on unlocking billions of dollars in frozen assets held abroad, he said. âThe 60-day clock was always a fantasy,â Miller said. âThe Iranians are not going to move to the nuclear file until theyâre relatively confident, theyâve achieved this new status quo. They want to make sure that Trump understands, and that the world understands, that thereâs no going back to February 27.â IRAN Will not GIVE UP HORMUZ Iran is exploiting what Miller calls the key reality of the post-war order â neither US military power nor the threat of a US naval blockade fundamentally altered its position on the Strait of Hormuz. âTheyâre not going to give it up,â he said. Emirates Policy Center president Ebtesam al-Ketbi said that by halting the war without resolving the issues that caused it, Washington may have helped elevate Hormuz from being a pressure point into a lasting source of leverage for Tehran. Gulf officials worry that by showing Iranâs ability to shape events around the strait, the war created an advantage that Tehran will be reluctant to surrender even in exchange for sanctions relief or progress on the nuclear file. âThey are twisting the arms of the Americans and everybody,â al Ketbi said. âNow that they have found this Hormuz treasure, they will not leave it.â Washington is likely to have to accept the reopening of the strait under conditions largely dictated by Tehran, analysts say. âNo oneâs going to win, but Iran will lose less than the United States will,â Eyre said. For years, international media and residents have lamented the treacherous conditions of Taiwanâs streets. Authorities have rolled out various crackdowns and stricter law enforcement. Yet, despite a staggering NT$14.2 billion (US$444.7 million) collected in traffic fines in 2024 alone, Taiwanâs roads remain as dangerous as ever. This exposes a fundamental flaw in Taiwanâs approach to traffic safety: an over-reliance on punitive measures over structural reform. A recent proposal by lawmakers to hold a referendum earmarking traffic fine revenue for road safety infrastructure and public transport subsidies is a step forward. It challenges the habit of treating traffic enforcement as a With Russia under pressure on multiple fronts, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a tighter spot than at any other moment of his quarter-century in power. Putin remains firmly in charge of the Kremlin, but there is a growing risk that he will try to escape his current predicament by escalating his conflict with the West. Putinâs first problem is that his war in Ukraine has no momentum. Recent territorial gains have come slowly and at the cost of enormous loss of life (450,000 killed, almost eight times the US body count in Vietnam) and economic damage. After four As science, apparently, has proven that a frog in water subjected to increasing heat will, in fact, jump, so then Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States are not condemned to suffer occupation and defeat from the various incrementalist strategies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA). CCP/PLA incrementalism in the South China Sea (SCS) has won a great victory, starting in January 1974, when PLA Maritime Militia forces killed 75 South Vietnamese troops to seize 7.75 square kilometers of land in the Paracel Islands (輿ć˛çž¤ĺłś) â and no one responded. Fifty-two years later, by moving Last month, the US Department of War reversed a decision taken during US President Donald Trumpâs first administration, restoring the US Indo-Pacific Commandâs former name, the US Pacific Command. The 2018 addition of âIndo-Pacificâ signaled a sustained US focus on linking the Pacific and Indian Ocean theatres. Many read the change as a retreat from a China-focused networked security architecture, inevitably bringing Taiwan into the equation. However, this does not mean the Indo-Pacific is dead or Indiaâs role diminished. The framework remains intact, and Indiaâs position continues to strengthen. India has been central to the Indo-Pacific construct from the start,
Trumpâs mixed messaging on Iran war has mediators rushing to save the ceasefire
Mistrust is mounting on both sides, raising the question of what comes next in the Iran war. President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says heâs not sure he wants a deal anymore and says the U.S. should âfinish the job.â But he also insists that continued attacks do not mean a return to war or long-term action.The confusion and uncertainty in Trumpâs mixed messaging and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave major questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks after difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial deal between the longtime adversaries.The whipsawing rhetoric could be a strategy to increase the pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships transporting oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and bend to U.S. demands on its nuclear program â something Trump has tried before.Whether it is a negotiation tactic or a signal of an escalation in fighting, mediators are scrambling to save the interim deal and the actions risk further inflaming tensions â which could spell problems for Republicans in Novemberâs midterm elections if gas prices stay high.Trump warned Wednesday that a new round of U.S. attacks was coming, even as he attempted to shrug off suggestions of a return to full-scale war. Hours later, the military announced it was carrying out new attacks on Iran that were meant to âfurther degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.ââAnything that happens is going to happen very fast,â Trump said earlier. âWeâre not looking for a long time.â
Trump orders new Iran strikes, calls peace deal âdead,â family seeks answers in teenâs death
President Trump says diplomacy with Iran is over, ordering new U.S. strikes after declaring the peace negotiations dead following the collapse of the ceasefire. The latest military action marks a dâŚ
Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Markets Ignore Latest Middle East Airstrikes
Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Markets Ignore Latest Middle East Airstrikes Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf. And like during previous escalations, this time nobody believes it will last. As of 8:00am ET S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 0.6% as semiconductor stocks advanced in Asia, Europe and US premarket trading after SK Hynix drew strong demand for its offering of ADRs. Mag7 stocks are mixed, with META tumbling on a Reuters report the company has signed long-term contracts for memory, networking gear and flash storage, refuting the market's expectation that the company is starting to ease back on capex spending. The FTSE 100 lags and is down 0.8% as AstraZeneca shares slump 9% after its Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems. . Cyclicals, ex-Energy, are rebounding led by Fins and Industrials. Momentum is poised for another strong day, this time with Beta. Brent traded near $79 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses. Bond yields are down 2bps to up 1bps as the curve twists steeper ahead of todayâs 30Y auction; the 10Y yield trades at 4.59%, near a one-month high. Commodities are weaker with Ags and Energy selling off but there is a bid to metals led by Precious. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.6% against the greenback after some hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman. Precious metals advance along with Bitcoin. Todayâs macro data focus is on jobless data and existing home sales with the macro focus shifting to next weekâs CPI / PPI, Retail Sales prints as earnings season kicks off. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Meta Platforms -0.1%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%) Ceco Environmental (CECO) rises 3% after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the air-purification equipment provider with a recommendation of overweight, citing its acquisition of Thermon. IBM (IBM) slips 3% as Starbucks is developing in-house tools with the help of artificial intelligence that could replace some software applications it now buys from the company. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) slumps 19%, while AstraZeneca falls in London, after a late-stage trial of the companiesâ gene silencer drug Wainua showed a failure to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ. Developers of rival cardiomyopathy drugs gain: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) +17%, Bridgebio (BBIO) +13%. Levi Strauss (LEVI) falls 4% after after the apparel companyâs increase to its forecast underwhelmed investors. Mattel (MAT) slips 2% after Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk cut his recommendation on the toy maker to sell from neutral, and cut his price target to a Street-low $12 from $15. Salesforce (CRM) falls 4% after KeyBanc downgraded the software company to sector weight, noting a lack of momentum in the the companyâs Agentforce AI product. Simply Good Foods (SMPL) rises 13% after the packaged-food company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. In other news, PepsiCo narrowly missed estimated for second-quarter organic sales growth as the earnings season for the June quarter got underway. Bain Capital has sold its entire stake in flash memory chipmaker Kioxia. AstraZeneca and Ionis Pharmaceuticalsâs gene silencer drug Wainua failed to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ, sending Ionis shares plunging in premarket trading. Porsche deliveries slumped 16% in the first half, dragged down by weak demand in North America and a decline in China. The calmer mood in markets comes despite an escalation of violence in the Middle East that is threatening efforts to reach a permanent US-Iran peace deal. The US military hit about 90 Iranian targets Wednesday to degrade Tehranâs ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders say that while the tensions reflect the fragile nature of the truce between the sides, neither government would want a full-scale return to war and that the parties would likely return to negotiations. âThis is the new status quo; itâs an uneasy equilibrium, but an equilibrium nonetheless,â said Geoff Yu, a senior macro strategist at BNY. âYou just need to factor in the volatility in your asset allocation.â Global bonds were modestly higher as two days of an oil-driven selloff came to an end. The yield on two-year Treasuries eased two basis points to 4.20%. The dollar was little changed. After Wednesdayâs minutes of the Federal Reserveâs June meeting showed that some committee members saw a case for a rate increase, traders will now wait for next weekâs inflation data and Chair Kevin Warshâs testimony to lawmakers for another steer on the path for interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion later on Thursday. âThe only reason the July meeting wasnât live was because oil prices were basically where they started the war,â Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, told Bloomberg TV. âThatâs changed. The conflict in Iran and the Hormuz problem has not really been resolved.â In tech, SK Hynixâs US listing is said to be more than seven times oversubscribed, as the South Korean memory chipmaker prepares to price its offering later today. With its ADRs set to trade for the first time on Friday, arbitrage investors are without a historical benchmark for what constitutes a normal premium, making it far harder to judge when a spread is attractive or stretched. On the subject of memory, the knock-on effects of ongoing component price inflation could dampen hardware growth expectations, with Citi forecasting 2026 PC units to fall 15% in 2026, and smartphones to decline 12%. As Bloomberg notes, an interesting divergence is emerging under the surface of volatility. While the VIX Index continues to exhibit placid price moves, single stock volatility, expressed through the S&P 500 Dispersion Index, closed at a one-year high on Wednesday. When it comes to AI, massive spending commitments are set to sustain the investment theme around the technology for two to three years, according to BlackRock Inc.âs Helen Jewell, even as tech giants gradually turn cash-flow negative and start raising debt to fund their buildouts. âFrom an investment perspective, you lean into the AI theme, you do the secondary beneficiaries of that, but you need to diversify those portfolios,â Jewell told Bloomberg TV. âHealthcare, Latam, even the UK.â Consumer stocks are in focus with Costco reporting a deceleration in June comps relative to May, while Levi Strauss is lower in premarket trading after a decent beat and raise report fell short of some expectations for a more punchy forecast. It follows BofA noting that clients had put the most money into consumer discretionary stocks ever last week. In politics, Graham Platner suspended his Senate campaign in Maine following a sexual assault allegation that caused his support from fellow Democrats to collapse. And Democratic infighting is threatening to undermine the partyâs midterm targets. Europe's Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% after its worst day since March. Miners and banks are the best performers while healthcare lags its sector peers.The FTSE 100 lags and is down 0.8% as AstraZeneca shares slump after its Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: Glencore rises as much as 3.9% after Goldman Sachs raised the diversified miner to buy from neutral, citing commodity leverage, earnings upside and valuation support. Nordex shares gain as much as 5.2% after the German wind turbine maker said it recorded 3,054MW of orders in the second quarter, above expectations. Computacenter shares rise as much as 14% to a record high after the UK IT reseller tipped full-year results to be âcomfortably aheadâ of market expectations, showing it continues to benefit from US hyperscalersâ data center buildout. Admiral Group rallies as much as 2.2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the car insurance provider to neutral from sell and set a Street-high price target, citing an upturn in UK motor market pricing. Schott Pharma shares jump by a record 22% after the company improved its guidance for the full year, prompting an upgrade at RBC Capital Markets. The stock is trading at its highest level since October. Wolters Kluwer shares rise as much as 7.3% as JP Morgan upgrades its rating on the IT firm to overweight from neutral and lifts its price target, citing a âcompellingâ valuation and the potential for interest from private equity. Sampo gains as much as 2.3% after the insurer was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs, which sees Nordic markets and an upturn in UK motor pricing driving operating earnings growth through 2029. Erste shares rise as much as 3.4% after Goldman Sachs resumed analyst coverage with a buy rating and a âŹ150 price target. Deutz shares rise as much as 10% after the German engine manufacturer said it agreed to buy closely held military-vehicle maker FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft. Pepco gains as much as 5.2% after the discount retailer reported acceleration of like-for-like sales during the 3Q period ended in June. Playtech shares rally as much as 20% after the maker of gaming software said its performance in the first half was materially ahead of expectations and lifted its full year guidance. Suedzucker shares rise as much as 4% after the German food company raised its revenue outlook for the year. AstraZeneca shares slump as much as 9.9% after a late-stage trial showed the gene silencer drug Wainua failed to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ. Capita shares plunge as much as 20% after the outsourcing company warned issues with a contract will hit 2026 profit, leading analysts at RBC Capital Markets to cut their forecasts and price target. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern over renewed Middle East tensions was countered by optimism toward the artificial intelligence trade.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.1% higher after earlier climbing as much as 1% and falling 0.5%. Most technology shares gained, with SK Hynix and Kioxia Holdings among the major contributors to the gaugeâs advance. Mainland Chinaâs CSI 300 Index jumped more than 2% as chip stocks advanced. Shares in Japan and South Korea also rose, while those in Hong Kong and Taiwan fell.  Oil fluctuated as traders assessed the outlook for Middle Eastern crude supplies after fresh hostilities between the US and Iran, raising concerns for global energy supplies and posing a fresh challenge Asian economies that are mainly oil importers. Investors are reassessing the sustainability of AI-driven rally, as investors looked to earnings season for the next catalyst. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.6% against the greenback after some hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman. In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper, pivoting around little-changed 10-year sector, as front-end tenors unwind some of their oil-driven losses of the past two sessions. Long-end tenors lag with WTI crude futures extending recent gains after IRNA report that the perimeter of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant was hit by US projectiles. US front-end yields are about 2bp richer on the day, long-end yields 1.5bp cheaper, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp and 2.5bp respectively. 10-year, little changed around 4.58%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by around 3bp. European government bonds rise with UK and German 10-year yields falling 2-3 bps each. US 10-year borrowing costs are flat.This weekâs Treasury auctions conclude with $22 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm, following strong demand for Wednesdayâs 10-year note sale; WI 30-year yield near 5.09% is 7bp cheaper than last monthâs auction, which tailed by 1.2bp. Focal points of Thursdayâs US session include weekly jobless claims data and 30-year bond reopening, on the heels of good demand for Wednesdayâs 10-year note sale. . In commodities, brent crude futures are little changed near $78 a barrel having erased earlier gains seen after the US military struck Iran for a second straight day. Precious metals advance along with Bitcoin. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and June existing home sales (10am). Fed calendar includes Williams (9am) and Logan (1:30pm). Market snapshot Top Overnight News US, Iran Trade Airstrikes as Fears Grow of a Return to War: BBG The Iran War threatened a food crisis. The next Gulf conflict could do the same: RTRS The Red Flag That Led to Graham Platnerâs Implosion Was Hiding in Plain Sight: WSJ Meta to put AI chip into production in September as it looks to double computing capacity, memo shows: RTRS An Impending IPO Boom Has Sparked FOMO Among San Francisco Home Buyers: WSJ China consumer price growth weakens in June while producer inflation rises to near 4-year high, squeezing manufacturers: RTRS U.S. Targets One of Cubaâs Last Lifelines: Its Army of Overseas Doctors: WSJ Ukraineâs Six-Part Strategy to Survive the Global Run on Patriot Missiles. Kyiv is trying to mitigate the shortage of missile interceptors that has left its cities exposed to Russiaâs ballistic missiles: WSJ The US Senate committee will reportedly vote next week on a bill to toughen the US government ban on Chinese automakers from entering the US market. Counterfeit Air-Bag Parts Are Killing U.S. Driversâand the Government Canât Stop It: WSJ Trump said he is a bigger fan of SAVE America than the housing bill; Trump said he will be asking for a rehearing by the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship: Truth Social Iran War US CENTCOM announced the completion of its most recent round of strikes against Iran, in which forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets. There were reports of fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Hormozgan. There have also been reports of explosions in Abu Musa Island and Bushehr. Nour news reported that the attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant. The IRGC later announced that two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked and threatened that response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks. Trump said Iran was just hit very hard and we have many ways to win. He added that he do not know if Iran will honor a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks initially proved resilient to the recent US-Iran strikes, with the majority of indices opening with decent gains. However, as the session progressed, market reversed, with the Nikkei 225 the only index printed gains. The reversal came without a clear driver, which highlights the extreme volatility in equity markets. ASX 200 began trade with losses and continued to trade in the red, however stabilised above 8,700. Energy was the sector outperformer, while Metals & Mining lagged for a fourth straight session. Nikkei 225 was the only index printing gains, helped by gains in Kioxia, after Bain Capital announced the sale of its entire stake, and Tokyo Election, as it highlighted the ability to cut chip gear delivery times by 50%. KOSPI initially surged at the open, following on from the tech-led gains stateside, with Samsung and SK Hynix printing gains of over 5% at one point. However, the index reversed, driven by the losses in the two tech giants, highlighting the extreme volatility in the South Korean benchmark. The KOSPI volatility index currently stands at 87.41, compared to Nasdaqâs 27.86. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened with modest gains but gave back slightly. It was another day of IPOs for the Hang Seng, with the introduction of Luxshare Precision Industry, which didn't start as hoped. Top Asian News Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kiara said they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency. China announces issuance of guidelines to promote the retail sector. South Korean official said Won weakness is temporary. European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened with gains as markets generally look through the geopolitical escalation. FTSE 100 is the laggard as energy majors pull back and AstraZeneca slumps, IBEX 35 is the clear outperformer after US-Spain trade-related underperformance on Wednesday. To briefly recap events overnight, tit-for-tat strikes were conducted by the US on around 90 Iranian targets, and the IRGC fired on military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Markets remain optimistic, focusing on remarks from US President Trump, who said he spoke with Iran, and that they want to make a deal. European sectors opened with a positive, risk-on bias and continue this way in quiet EU trade. Tech and Basic Resources outperform, while Energy and Utilities are the laggards. Stock specifics include: AstraZeneca (-9%) CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III trial did not meet the primary endpoint of efficacy around CV mortality; Deutz (5.5%), To acquire FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft for EUR 1.6bln. Top European News Andy Burnham has pledged to rebuild the country's hard power by ensuring that billions of pounds of additional defence spending is focused on the UK rather than given to American or European companies, according to the Times' Swinford. FX In short, the USD is a touch softer at the expense of G10s across the board ex-CAD which has been hit by the energy pullback. Kiwi continues to lead post-RBNZ. NZD continues to climb, as high as 0.5739 against the USD, approaching the 22nd of June peak at 0.5741 and numerous levels thereafter. The narrative for the Kiwi is a continuation of the move seen following the RBNZ, and as the last session or two's worth of energy action adds to, and arguably brings forward, the tentative hawkish guidance from the Bank. As a reminder, the statement said âWhile further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.â CAD lags. USD/CAD at a 1.4188 peak and threatening to move higher despite energy lifting off lows, but with WTI and Brent still lower by around USD 0.40/bbl on the day. Numerous levels are in focus on either side, with the direction likely to remain firmly and almost exclusively at the whim of energy, barring a trade or similar development. EUR and GBP both benefit from the USD downside. EUR/USD as high as 1.1449 and Cable to 1.3431. However, the last 30 minutes or so have seen a bit of a bounce in energy, still in the red but only by around USD 0.40/bbl vs downside of c. USD 1.10/bbl at most. Action that has allowed the USD to fight back a touch, and weighed on peers with GBP/USD down to a 1.3413 low and EUR/USD back towards the overnight 1.1416 base. Given this, the DXY remains in the red and below 101.00, but only just and is eyeing a return into the green. For the EUR, we look to the ECB Minutes for June. However, the significant amount of developments on the geopolitical front since then mean the account is even more stale than typical. UK participants await the formal start of the Labour leadership process, though it is not expected to be a contest with just Burnham to enter. USD/JPY under modest pressure, broadly in-fitting with the action seen in other G10s as the USD dictates. At the mid-point of narrow 162.24-62 parameters. Specifics include Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara saying they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency. Fixed Income A firmer start to the day for fixed income, after a relatively rangebound APAC session on account of the lack of energy follow-through to the tit-for-tat strikes by the US and Iran overnight, with the narrative potentially being that the strikes are no more of an escalation than what we saw on Tuesday night. Overnight, USTs held around 108-30 and were near-enough flat, Bunds similar between 125.20-30, firmer by around 10 ticks. Thereafter, in the early European morning, US President Trump said Iran âcalled a while agoâ and they âwant to make a dealâ, in-fitting with his overnight language; however, the indication that contacts, likely via mediators but unconfirmed, have occurred allowed energy to pull back and lifted fixed. This was enough to bring USTs to a 109-03+ peak. However, in recent trade, as the energy complex comes off worst levels US paper has flicked slightly into the red. Bunds as high as 125.40, firmer by 26 ticks at best but well shy of the weekâs opening level just below 127.00. Specifics for the bloc light, aside from ECB Minutes for the June meeting, which are likely more stale than usual given the MoU and more recent flare up. Gilts opened with gains of 28 ticks, reacting to the early-morning pickup in peers. Since, it has extended to an 87.62 peak with gains of just over 50 ticks; albeit, as is the case with peers, the benchmark remains well shy of Mondayâs 88.93 opening level. For the UK, BoEâs Breeden is on the docket and may well provide further insight on Gilt-related reform. Additionally, the Labour leadership nomination process formally opens, if as expected only Burnham contends then he will be PM around the 20th of July. Japan sold JPY 2.5tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.43x (prev. 3.11x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 1.905%). Lowest accepted price 99.88 (prev. 100.35). Weighted average price 99.91 (prev. 100.41). Tail in price 0.03 (prev. 0.06). China Interbank bond market regulator is to reportedly curb short-term bond issuance by local government financing vehicles. Australia sold AUD 150mln 0.25% November 2032 I/L AGBs: b/c 3.23x (prev. 4.42x), average yield 2.1808% (prev. 2.2373%). Commodities Focus remains on the turbulent geopolitical situation. Overnight, the US struck various regions in Iran, aiming to degrade the IRGCâs ability to attack commercial ships. Iran responded with its own attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Following the strikes, US President Trump said that Iran called a short while ago, and that they want to make a deal. Details are light at this stage, and it remains to be seen whether a call actually took place, and whether Trump was truthful of Iran seeking a deal. For now, market sentiment is positive, with traders focusing in on: a) Trumpâs deal comments, b) no large-scale war so far, c) the Strait remaining open. On the latter point, whilst ships continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported that that some war insurers advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after the latest attacks. Crude benchmarks extended lower this morning, after trading with mild strength overnight. However, the complex now trades flat on the session, as markets digest the overnight strikes. Spot gold (+0.9%) trades slightly firmer this morning, thanks to the softer USD and lower energy prices. Currently holding above the USD 4.1k/oz mark, and trades within a USD 4,054-4,118/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the green, following the positive risk tone. 3M LME copper trades at the upper end of a USD 13,241-13,447/t range. Elsewhere, for Lithium markets, reports have suggested that Chileâs lithium exports have almost tripled Y/Y. Stavropol governor said a fire at the industrial site in Stavropol has intensified, reaching fuel tanks, Interfax reported. UK announces issuance of electricity supply warning as heat wave strains grid. Trade/Tariffs US President Trump said a lot of good trade deals were made with Turkey; Spain was very generous today as they honoured a request for lots of payment. A US official said that the US Treasury will work with USTR and the Commerce Department to present President Trump with a menu of Spanish products that may be subject to a trade embargo in the coming days. Central Banks BoJ Osaka branch manager said many companies in the region expect solid earnings and share the need for further wage increases to secure workers amid labour shortages; expect significant price rises ahead. BoJ maintains its assessment for all 9 of Japan's regions. Many regions said the risk of sharp drop in exports and output has declined somewhat. Many regions said firms were maintaining robust capex plans, increasing chip equipment and chip orders due to expanding global AI demand. Many regions said firms, including smaller ones, offered high wage increases this year, though some said it could be difficult to keep a hiking pay. RBNZ Governor Breman reiterates that the neutral OCR range is centred around 3%, need to read the economy to assess where the neutral rate is. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8036 vs exp. 6.7978 (prev. 6.8077). BoK Governor Shin said they are in talks with other central banks all the time to discuss markets, sees a strong chance of a stronger KRW. Taiwan Central Bank Governor said concerns remain about the possibility of an AI bubble. BoK Governor Shin said interest rates need to be raised at an appropriate time. BoK said KRW weakness is sharper than other major currencies, will continue making market stabilising efforts, inflation seen exceeding target with demand-side pressure growing gradually. Geopolitics: Overnight strikes: At the direction of the Commander in Chief, US Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway. US military base in Kuwait was hit in an Iranian retaliatory attack, while explosions heard at the US Fifth fleet HQ in Bahrain. Iranian missiles targeted the Azraq base in eastern Jordan, Fars reported. Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards' naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News. Geopolitics: US Commentary: US President Trump said Iran called a while ago, they want to make a deal. US President Trump's frustration with Iran was due in part to his anger over the Strait not being fully open yet and that Iran hit ships transiting the Strait, CNN reported citing a US official. The official added that Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, specifically Iran's appearing to slow walk Washington on the nuclear talks. US President Trump posted "This is in retribution for yesterdayâs bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!". US President Trump said Iran was just hit very hard, we have many ways to win; do not know if Iran will honour a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly. Europe wants to help on Iran. A US official said the ceasefire with Iran has been halted, at least temporarily, CNN reported. "Everything depends on Iran's response - if they continue to shoot, the night's events could become a daily, weekly event. We are prepared," i24News reported citing a US source. The length and severity of the new campaign depends entirely on Tehran's next moves, Axios reported citing a US official; The White House is preparing for a multi-day or multi-week exchange of fire with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has no connection to the US strikes on Iran, Al Arabiya reported citing an Israeli military source. Any attempt to target Israel will be met with a swift, decisive and strong response. Geopolitics: Iran Commentary: Iran's Bushehr Governor said that US attacks on a nuclear plant in the region are not true. Iran's advisor to the Supreme Leader Rezaei said "martyr Khamenei taught us not to fear American and showed that falsehood will perish. Await the hard slap from the Iranians". Iran's IRGC said they will respond to the targeting of a bridge in Aqqala, Al Arabiya reported. Iran's IRGC said two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked, response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said America has not yet learned that bullying and breach of promise are no longer free, adds the Strait of Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats. The US attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant, Nour news reported citing a source. Geopolitics: Lebanon: "The US ambassador in Beirut: Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have moved to Rome for technical reasons", via Al Arabiya. Preparations are underway regarding the start of work in the pilot areas. Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they will remain within the Lebanon security zone and will operate within it until Hezbollah is disarmed. Geopolitics: Ukraine: Ukraine's Military said it struck 12 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military has struck Russian oil depots in the Tver and Stavropol Regions; also strikes on a Russian oil pumping Station in Ufa and oil terminal in the Rostov region. reported of explosions in Dnipro, Ukraine. A Russian official said two tankers were attacked by drones in the Sea of Azov. A Russian governor said a fire has occurred in one tank of the Tverskaya oil deposit enterprise as a result of a UAV attack and all districts of the Kershon region are partially or completely depowered, Interfax reported. Russian governor said a UAV raid caused a fire at an industrial facility in Stavropol, Interfax reported. Geopolitics: Others EU reportedly puts trade ban with Israeli settlements on the table, Euronews reported. US President Trump said have not decided on pulling troops out of Greenland. Wednesday's strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defence systems, Axios' Ravid reported citing a senior US official. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Jul 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 217k, prior 215k 8:30 am: Jun 27 Continuing Claims, est. 1814k, prior 1814k 10:00 am: Jun Existing Home Sales, est. 4.2m, prior 4.17m 9:00 am: United States Fedâs Williams in Moderated Discussion 1:30 pm: United States Fedâs Logan Moderates Panel on Market Liquidity DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The US has now conducted a second consecutive day of strikes on Iran, reportedly targeting around 90 sites including air defence systems, missile and drone facilities, and coastal surveillance infrastructure. This marks a clear escalation, with Washington signalling it is prepared to sustain operations to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iranâs Revolutionary Guard has reportedly struck US-linked bases in the Gulf and warned of further retaliation, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. President Trump said that he would not stop negotiations but that âI just donât know if theyâre worthy of making a deal. I donât know that theyâre going to honor the deal.â Asian equity markets are mixed overnight, with the renewed US military action against Iran and higher oil prices (+1.03% at around $78/bbl but under yesterday's peak above $80) weighing on risk appetite. Japanâs Nikkei (+1.55%) is the standout performer, supported by chip-related buying. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.16%) is rebounding from an earlier drop of close to 2 percent even if it had moved positive when I started writing this paragraph! Chinese markets are mostly lower, with the Hang Seng (-0.78%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.89%) declining after soft inflation data. The S&P/ASX 200 is also down (-0.45%). S&P 500 (+0.17%) and Nasdaq (+0.18%) futures are up alongside Stoxx futures (+1.03%) which is being helped by a late US recovery last night after the European close.  Japanâs five-year government bond auction saw solid demand, supported by elevated yields. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.43, above the previous auction's 3.11 and the 12-month average of 3.35. The US-Iran conflict and associated oil concerns had built up through the day yesterday, amidst growing fears that last monthâs interim deal was coming apart. Oil prices immediately jumped in the London morning by around $2/bbl after President Trump said on the ceasefire that âFor me, I think itâs overâ. Then later on, Trump said that the US would âprobably hit them hard again tonightâ, and that âWe may put it back, the blockade, and itâll only be a blockade for Iranâ. Meanwhile on the Iranian side, an aide to the Supreme Leader said in a post that âWe have proven time and again that adventures will receive an immediate responseâ. So collectively it felt like the most serious escalation since the deal was agreed last month.  All that led to a clear reaction for oil prices, with Brent crude (+5.20%) posting its biggest daily gain since May 4th, peaking at $80.59/bbl but closing a couple of dollars lower. For reference, thatâs still a long way beneath its recent peak in absolute terms, having approached $120/bbl during the initial phase of the conflict. But itâs a clear shift away from the downward trajectory for oil back in Q2, and the various headlines revived fears about a more persistent inflationary shock. Indeed, the 1yr Euro inflation swap surged +26.8bps yesterday to 2.14%.  With stagflation concerns back on the agenda, that led investors to price back in more rate hikes. For instance, the probability of a Fed hike as soon as this month was up +3.2bps to 30.5% by the close, and the amount of hikes priced by December was up +4.8bps on the day to 42.2bps. Meanwhile at the ECB, there was an even bigger hawkish repricing, with the amount of hikes by December up +12.7bps on the day to 39.5bps. And given the ECB already hiked in June, that pricing implies a growing chance that they might end up hiking 3 times by the end of the year.  Just like when the conflict began, yesterdayâs re-escalation caused significant damage to sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe given the regionâs exposure to the energy shock. So 10yr bund yields (+9.9bps) surged back up to 3.09%, marking its biggest daily jump since May. And over in France, there was an even bigger milestone, as the 10yr OAT yield (+13.5bps) closed at 3.93%, marking its highest level since 2009. Then in the US, the moves werenât quite as aggressive, but the 10yr Treasury yield (+2.8bps) still rose to 4.58%, and the 10yr real yield (+2.4bps) closed at a 17-month high of 2.31%.  Later on, we also had the minutes from last monthâs FOMC meeting, which was the first with new Chair Kevin Warsh. The minutes added further credence to the hawkish market pricing seen since the meeting last month. While much of the committee agreed that inflation would cool as energy prices fell and one-off tariff impacts subsided, there were some worries of persistent underlying price pressures. Artificial Intelligence and the corresponding build out seemed top of mind for the committee, as âmany participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity.â There is also greater concern amongst the committee that consumers and businesses are increasingly expecting higher prices. However, most Fed officials said in the minutes that they put more weight on financial market measures of inflation expectations rather than surveyed responses.  Given the stagflationary backdrop, this meant equities took a big hit on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 fell -0.28%, with a broad-based decline that saw 78% of the index lose ground. Once again, the move in chip stocks was against the overall market as the Philly semiconductor index (+2.23%) outperformed. The outperformance was bolstered by two large news stories. First, SK Hynixâs US offering was more than seven times oversubscribed, with the ADR set to raise nearly $24.5bn and become the second largest debut for a foreign company after Alibaba ($25bn). Second, it was reported that China had plans to allow some domestic AI companies to purchase Nvidiaâs H200 chips. Outside of the semiconductor rally, the only other S&P 500 industry groups to gain yesterday were Tech Hardware (+1.52%), Energy (+1.45%), and Consumer Staples (+1.15%) â the other 21 industry groups were lower on the day.  Over in Europe, those declines were even more severe, with Spain seeing the worst of the declines after Trump renewed his calls to end trade with Spain. This was at the NATO summit, where he said âSpain is a wasted causeâ and that âWe donât want to do any trade business with Spain anymore.â Moreover, WSJ reporter Brian Schwartz posted that US officials would provide Trump a list of Spanish products that could be embargoed in the coming days. So that meant the IBEX 35 (-2.73%) posted a significant decline, sharply underperforming the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-1.61%). That said, there wasnât much good news anywhere in Europe, with the DAX (-2.23%), the CAC 40 (-2.18%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.22%) all posting significant declines as well. Coming back to China, June inflation data revealed a diverging trend, highlighting uneven price pressures in the economy. CPI eased more than expected, rising +1.0% year-over-year (vs. +1.1% consensus) and slowing from May's +1.2% reading. In contrast, factory-gate inflation (PPI) accelerated to a four-year high of +4.1% year-over-year, matching forecasts. On a month-over-month basis, however, producer prices fell -0.3%, the first such decline since July 2025.  Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include US existing home sales for June, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Meanwhile from central banks, weâll get the ECBâs account of their June meeting, and hear from the ECBâs Escriva, the Fedâs Williams and Logan, and the BoEâs Breeden. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2026 - 08:26
The Latest: Trump launches new strikes on Iran after saying ceasefire is over
The U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran early Thursday, hours after President Donald Trump said recent Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz signaled the end of the ceasefire and threatened to escalate the conflict if they didnât stop. Iran responded by targeting U.S.-allied Kuwait and Qatar and accused the U.S. of striking near its sole nuclear power plant. Back-and-forth attacks, including on Wednesday, have repeatedly threatened the ceasefire, but Thursdayâs appeared bigger all around. And Trumpâs mixed messaging â approving back-to-back military strikes while insisting they donât mean a return to full-scale war â is fueling uncertainty about what comes next. Here's the latest: Global markets are mixed and oil prices rise as Iran and US launch new attacks Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.1% before the opening bell Thursday, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%. Nasdaq futures were up 0.5%. Oil prices inched up again Thursday, with Brent crude, the international standard, rising 64 cents to to $78.66 per barrel. It briefly topped $80 on Wednesday. Before the Iran war began, Brent oil was trading at around $72 a barrel. Earlier optimism over an interim peace deal recently brought it back to prewar levels. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 54 cents to $74.06 a barrel. âś Read more New attacks raise questions about what comes next in the Iran war President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says heâs not sure he wants a deal anymore and says the U.S. should âfinish the job.â But he also insists continued attacks donât mean a return to war or long-term action. The confusion and uncertainty in Trumpâs mixed messaging and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave major questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks after difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial deal between the longtime adversaries. The whipsawing rhetoric could be a strategy to increase the pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships transporting oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and bend to U.S. demands on its nuclear program â something Trump has tried before. Whether itâs a negotiation tactic or a signal of an escalation in fighting, mediators are scrambling to save the interim deal and the actions risk further inflaming tensions. âś Read more
5 disputes push Trump toward scrapping US-Iran deal as clashes escalate
5 disputes push Trump toward scrapping US-Iran deal as clashes escalate WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald Trump is considering whether to scrap the US-Iran memorandum of understanding after renewed strikes exposed the unresolved disputes threatening the agreement. The June 17 deal was meant to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran, but fresh clashes have raised doubts over whether the arrangement can survive. Instead of resolving major disagreements, the MoU delayed several key issues that later became obstacles to further negotiations. 5 disputes threatening the US-Iran deal The MoU initially helped reduce some of the conflict's immediate pressure points by easing opposing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and extending a ceasefire announced during the conflict's sixth week on April 7, according to a Newsweek report published on Wednesday, July 8. Analysts said the agreement was designed to create temporary stability rather than settle the biggest disagreements between the US and Iran. "The MoU deferred some of the most contentious issues between the US and Iran, including the nuclear file, while prioritizing an easing of economic disruption," Naysan Rafati, Iran senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Newsweek. "In principle, that's a reasonable approach," he added. "In practice, it risks dueling interpretations of what's been agreed and multiple points of failure." The arrangement also lacked the detailed framework that supported the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Rafati noted that the earlier agreement was "a granular but mostly single-issue agreement" centered on trading nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief after years of negotiations. The broad language of the MoU became its biggest weakness as Washington and Tehran remained divided over several unresolved commitments, the report said. Those disputes included "the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, a parallel ceasefire involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, how much influence Iran would retain over Strait of Hormuz traffic and a US pledge to withdraw troops from the Islamic Republic's immediate vicinity." Renewed clashes expose cracks in the agreement With little progress on those issues, tensions continued and intermittent clashes followed, according to the report. A major turning point came after three tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz were attacked. Iranian officials did not claim responsibility but argued the vessels were using unauthorized maritime routes without transponders, the report stated. The situation escalated after "US Central Command said it struck more than 80 military targets." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then "announced operations allegedly targeting 85 US military facilities across the region," the report said. Speaking at a NATO summit in Turkey, Trump warned the US would "probably hit them hard again tonight" and suggested Washington might "just finish the job." Mistrust remains a challenge for US-Iran diplomacy The renewed fighting has reinforced concerns over whether diplomacy can still produce a lasting agreement between Washington and Tehran. Former State Department official Alan Eyre, who served on the JCPOA negotiating team, said Trump's 2018 withdrawal from that agreement damaged Iran's confidence in future US commitments. "President Trump's 2018 unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA showed, to Iran at least, that US commitments achieved through diplomacy cannot be trusted, which makes any subsequent bilateral negotiations that much harder," Eyre said. He argued that the administration entered the MoU after recognizing that military action alone had failed to achieve its objectives and had contributed to Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz. "The current US goals are to cut its losses and get maritime traffic through SoH back to, or at least close to, pre-war levels," Eyre said. "The primary Iran goals are to re-establish strategic deterrence by establishing operational control of the SoH." Eyre added that "it is highly unlikely Iran and the US will reach any type of nuclear agreement."
US returns refueling aircraft to Middle East amid escalation with Iran
The US has begun returning aerial refueling aircraft to its bases in the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran, as Israeli officials believe Washington would give a green light for Tel Aviv to resume attacks against Tehran, according to Israeli media on Wednesday. âIt is estimated that the Americans will give the green light to an Israeli response in Iran,â the public broadcaster KAN said. Channel 12 said Israelâs defense establishment is closely monitoring the situation following an exchange of attacks between Washington and Tehran on Wednesday. According to the outlet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to hold a security consultation this evening with Defense Minister Israel Katz to discuss developments related to Iran. READ: Trump says US will âprobablyâ hit Iran âhardâ again Wednesday night Early Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said the US will âprobablyâ hit Iran again on Wednesday night, following overnight US strikes in retaliation for attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said that the memorandum of understanding signed last month with Iran to end the conflict was âover.â Iranâs Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said early Wednesday that it had launched missile and drone strikes targeting 85 US military sites in the region, including Salman Port and the US Navyâs Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait. The attacks came after the US militaryâs Central Command said it had carried out a new round of strikes against Iran, hitting more than 80 targets in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. READ: Iran threatens to completely close Hormuz strait in response to renewed attacks
Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over
Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it âa waste of timeâ after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.7% and Nasdaq futures slumped 1% dragged lower by memory and chip stocks after the latest kinetic volley. The latter takes place in the context of mixed tech trade in Asia with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5%, whilst the South Korean Kospi lost 5.4%. Pre-market semis and Mag7 are being sold as Energy and Staples are the two best sectors; everything else is flat to down. The drawdown in momentum and the broader AI infrastructure trade (~85% correlation between these two cohorts) remains heavily in focus, with the GS High Beta Momentum basket (GSPRHIMO) now surpassing -20% over the past 5 days. This morning, global price action is pointing towards âmore of the sameâ with the primary Momentum tone-setters (Hynix -6% in Korea, SNDK -6%, MU -5%) lower across the board.  Brent crude advanced 5% to around $78 a barrel while WTI breached $75/bbl (+6%) before declining as the Energy complex leads commodities higher. Precious metals are getting hit with mixed bids to Ags and Base metals. Treasury yields are up around 2-3bps across the curve (10Y yield rising to 4.56%) with the market needing to digest a $39bln 10 year note auction ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD is higher. Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations and Fed minutes this afternoon take on added significance in the tighter-lipped Warsh era. Gold fell and the dollar wavered. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are lower (Meta -1.8%, Nvidia -1.6%, Microsoft -1.4%, Amazon -1.7%, Tesla -1.6%, Alphabet -1.3%, Apple -0.4%). Chipmakers and other AI-linked names are set for more declines on Wednesday as traders continue to rotate out of the sector. Energy stocks rally, while airlines and cruise lines slide, after Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran is âover,â raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. Chevron (CVX) climbs 2%, while Exxon (XOM) gains 2%. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) surge 8% after investors turned optimistic on its earnings and shifted capital into major Chinese internet companies. Bath & Body Works (BBWI) falls 4% after Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane cut her recommendation on candle and soap retailer to sell. Sentiment on the company is âtrending below historical levels,â including Reddit trends and with younger consumers, Goldmanâs analyst writes. Beazer Homes USA (BZH) climbs 12% after Dream Finders Homes said it has submitted a revised all-cash proposal to acquire the company. FuelCell Energy (FCEL) falls 21% after the company priced its upsized underwritten public offering of 10.7 million shares of its common stock. MasTec (MTZ) inches 2% higher after the construction company entered into a pact to buy Electrical Specialists for about $1.65 billion, consisting of about $475 million in MasTec stock and about $1.175 billion in cash. Navitas (NVTS) is down 7% after Wolfspeed filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the company in the US District Court for the District of Delaware, alleging that a broad range of Navitas products infringes multiple Wolfspeed patents. Universal Health Services (UHS) slips 2% after Barclays downgraded the hospital operator to equal-weight, saying the fundamental and regulatory backdrop is turning more negative. Overnight sentiment was hammered when a retaliation by the US on Iranian targets overnight was followed up by remarks just after 4am ET from US President Trump that the ceasefire with Iran is over, saying that "as far as Iâm concerned itâs just a waste of time." The dollar and yields spiked, while WTI crude jumped back above $75 a barrel, Trump's comments, made on day two of the NATO summit in Turkey, followed the US revocation yesterday of a waiver allowing sales of Iranian oil and subsequent strikes against more than 80 targets. Trump meets Ukraineâs Zelenskyy later. A handful of oil carriers appeared to transit through the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, even after a spate of strikes on ships rattled owners and prompted at least one supertanker to turn around midway through its crossing. Trumpâs declaration âmarks the most serious rupture yet in an agreement that has been fraying for weeks,â said Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares. âMarkets had been treating the June memorandum of understanding as a durable de-escalation. That complacency now looks fragile.â Trump overnight also slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO and threatened to cut off all trade with the country. That said, JPM tried to calm nerves with comments this morning, writing that the situation has not materially changed with neither US / Iran showing a desire for an extended conflict. On the US side, Trump had argued that the ceasefire paused the 60-day limit before he is required to get Congressional approval to extent military hostilities. He was facing resistance to secure additional funding for the war and next yearâs military budget during the ceasefire, so another spike to fuel prices adds to that political headwind. On the Iran side, they want legal control of SoH but likely want higher oil prices to pressure Trump and to maintain revenue given the lack of demand for their unsanctioned oil. âMy first read is that investors will not immediately price this as a full return to war, but they also cannot go back to the clean âpeace dividendâ trade,â said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. âThe bigger point is that any path from ceasefire to durable peace now looks much longer and much more fragile.â Today's 2 p.m. ET release of the Fedâs June meeting minutes takes on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economicsâ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the committeeâs focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. The options market is signaling that investors may be overestimating how much the Fed will raise rates this year. Since Warsh said last week that inflation risks have eased, flows in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate have tilted toward positions that would benefit if the swaps market pares back expectations for further rate hikes. Elsewhere, China lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt. In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised rates by 25bps (expected) with guidance still leading toward hikes, though with a softened tone. Looking ahead, we will receive wholesale inventories for May and the June FOMC meeting minutes. In Europe sentiment was hammered with the Stoxx 600 down 1.9% and all sectors ex-energy lower. Energy is the only rising sector, while autos and construction fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday: Jet2 shares surge as much as 17%. Analysts see strong booking momentum amid ebbing geopolitical risks and lower jet fuel prices. TGS shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Norwegian geophysical consulting and services firm reported better-than-expected 2Q results. Repsol shares gain as much as 4.8% after the Spanish oil company reported a stronger refining margin in 2Q. Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares rise as much as 6% after a Betaville report regarding possible takeover interest in the UK pharmaceutical company. Kuros Biosciences gains as much as 12% after Berenberg initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation, saying the Swiss companyâs growth is âpoised to reach an inflection point.â Lufthansa drops as much as 6.4% after Citi downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, saying the valuation seems âless compellingâ following the recent rally. Man Group shares drop as much as 3.4% after UBS downgraded the investment management firm on valuation grounds following strong gains. Rio Tinto falls as much as 3.6% in London to its lowest since March after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to underweight from equal-weight, saying the minerâs valuation is stretched given weaker iron ore fundamentals and limited copper exposure. Castellum shares drop as much as 4.9% after UBS downgraded the Swedish property firm to neutral from buy, saying âmuch of the near-term value creation is now reflected in the share price.â Vistry shares fall as much as 12% after the homebuilder warned of first-half losses. Boku shares plunge by a record 35%, slumping to their lowest level since 2022, after the payments company warned its results for 2026 will be below market expectations. Belimo shares fall as much as 7.4% after the Swiss maker of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment was cut to sell at Van Lanschot Kempen, which sees a potential increase to guidance as already priced in. Asian equities fell further after the US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between his country and Iran over, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1%, after swinging between a loss of 1% and gain of 0.4%. Indian stocks reacted adversely to Trumpâs comments, with the benchmark Nifty 50 gauge dropping over 2% and a gauge of volatility spiking 30%. Stocks also extended their decline in Indonesia, which relies heavily on oil imports, while futures on Japanese stocks fell 1.3%. The fresh bout of weakness follows a selloff in technology stocks in South Korea, where Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the major drags. South Koreaâs benchmark Kospi fell 5.4%, taking its drop from last monthâs all-time high to about 20%. Shares also fell in Japan and Australia, while those in Hong Kong and Singapore advanced. Bucking the trend, a key gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong climbed 4% earlier in the day, as the AI rotation trade gathered pace in Asia. Investors are pulling money from the chipmakers that powered this yearâs rally and hunting for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Elsewhere, Indonesian equities fell after S&P Dow Jones Indices signaled the country could eventually lose its emerging-market status if concerns over its stock market persist. New Zealand stocks fell as the central bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in three years. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. However, performance versus peers is mixed with Kiwi dollar near the top of the leaderboard after a hawkish hike from the RBNZ In rates, treasuries extended their late-Tuesday selloff as oil prices mounted sharply after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over. 2-year yields topped 4.20%, approaching this yearâs high, while 10-year exceeded 4.58%, cheapest since May 22. US front-end and belly yields are 2bp-3bp higher on the day, flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year, higher by 2bp, trails steeper increases for German and UK counterparts as they catch up with Tuesdayâs US yield surge that occurred after European markets had closed. European bonds tumbled as traders added to wagers that central banks will have little choice but to raise interest rates this year. The yield on 10-year gilts jumped 10 basis points to 4.95%, the highest level in nearly a month. This weekâs Treasury auctions continue with $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and conclude with $22 billion 30-year reopening Thursday. Demand was strong for Tuesdayâs 3-year new issue, which stopped through by 0.6bp and had a record low dealer allotment. WI 10-year yield near 4.575% is ~4bp cheaper than the June auction, which stopped through slightly in a solid result. Focal points of US session include a 10-year reopening auction and publication of minutes of June FOMC meeting. IG dollar issuance slate includes a KfW $6 billion 2-part offering. Amazonâs $25b offering headlined a six-issuer US investment-grade new issue session Tuesday. Issuers paid about 10bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.8 times oversubscribed. In commodities, Brent crude futures are higher by 6.7% and just above the $79/bbl mark as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Oil extended its gains on renewed US-Iran tensions, raising the prospect of a fresh round of conflict in one of the worldâs most important energy-producing regions. This came after the US military launched fresh air strikes in Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed it to sell oil globally. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver down 1.2% and 2.5% respectively. Bitcoin has slipped over 3%. US economic data calendar includes May wholesale inventories (10am) and consumer credit (3pm). Fed calendar empty for the session apart from FOMC minutes release at 2pm Market Snapshot Top Overnight News US President Donald Trump said a tentative ceasefire with Iran has ended, raising the prospect of an end to peace negotiations and a potential renewal of fighting between the two countries. âFor me, I think itâs over. As far as Iâm concerned itâs just a waste of time.â BBG President Trump slammed Spain for not contributing enough to NATO or spending enough on defense. âSpain is a terrible partner in NATO. They donât participate. They donât pay. I donât want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain,â Trump said at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey. CNBC South Korean stocks have entered a technical bear market as investors raise concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally. The Kospi index is down more than 20 per cent from its record high in June after slipping more than 5 per cent on Wednesday. FT China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, trade sources âsaid on Wednesday, as the worldâs biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war. BBG The AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as investors pull money from chipmakers and hunt for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Investors are rotating into one of Asia's most unloved markets, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. rising after the Kospi Index was pushed to a technical bear market. BBG The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday in what appeared to be a tentative move by policy makers to combat nagging inflation pressures. The official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.5%. WSJ OpenAI said its new AI model GPT-5.6 will be made available to the public tomorrow. The White House lifted restrictions on the model after government-approved entities were given a preview. Axios Nvidiaâs stock is the cheapest itâs been since before the AI boom, after losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in under two months. BBG Wildcatters are racing to secure oil deals in Venezuela, moving faster than Big Oil despite earthquake damage and political uncertainty. Whether the countryâs vast reserves can overcome the current challenges remains an open question. BBG South Korea's Foreign Ministry said they have signed an MoU with the US and Japan on cooperation to deploy small modular reactors: RTRS. The sell off in the Goldman High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) has now surpassed 20% over 5 days, exceeding short term expectations for a summer slump in the factor. This magnitude of sell off at such velocity has not been seen since 2020 when the stay-at-home vs go outside narrative shifted meaningfully towards reopening. It is notable that the current drawdown does not have the same strength of catalyst. Fingers have pointed towards SK Hynix raising and META cloud business. Iran War Trump stated he "thinks" the ceasefire with Iran is "over": Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars". US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time". US CENTOM announced that it completed a new round of offensive strikes, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions. CENTCOM added that forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed. Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published. In response, Iran's IRGC said they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed, with Chinese indices the only region in the green amid multiple IPOs and strength in China's tech space. Sentiment from the US session carried over in the Asia-Pac session, as energy prices surged amid the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions. ASX 200 continued to be weighed on by metals, with the Metals & Mining sector the worst performer, with Materials followed. Energy topped the sector pile Nikkei 225 started on the softer side, briefly returned to the unchanged mark before returning to the downside. KOSPI traded choppy, as the initial weakness briefly reversed to print modest gains. However, weakness returned as the session continued, resulting in the Korea Exchange activating the sidecar on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. As a result, the KOSPI extended its losses from June peak to 20%, indicating a bear market. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. were the only indices printing gains, with outperformance in the Hang Seng following strength in tech names. The strength can be attributed to two reports: 1) From Reuters, DeepSeek developing its own chip to power AI systems, and 2) from the Information, Zhiphu considering designing its own AI chip. Top Asian News China's MIIT has issued a risk warning regarding the potential security backdoors in the AI programming tool Claude Code. South Korean Government said companies with consolidated assets of over KRW 10tln will be required to disclose information on their ESG performance and risks, starting 2028. South Korean Finance Minister said they are to watch risk factors around stock market volatility, will enhance FX monitoring system to respond to night-time volatility. Japan is considering a change to monetary policy wording in the Honebuto, Asahi reported. European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.8%) began the session lower amid renewed US-Iran developments which spurred energy benchmarks higher. The move then extended after US President Trump suggested that he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is "over". European sectors in Europe are entirely negative (excl. Energy +2%) as they react to elevated energy prices. Top European News US President Trump said he is not happy with NATO when it comes to Greenland. Spain is a wasted cause, they do not want to do trade. Cutting off all trade with Spain and all visits. "Do not want to do any more trade with them (Spain)". Treasury Secretary Bessent has been told to cut off all trade with Spain. US is paying too much into NATO. UK and Italy were both terrible in not allowing the US to use military bases. Greenland is not important to Denmark. FX G10s are mostly lower against the Buck excl. commodity exporters CAD and NOK, which are resilient vs. the USD. USD rose throughout the morning in reaction to energy strength alongside sour equity sentiment after US President Trump said he thought the Iran ceasefire was over. To briefly summarise developments, yesterday the US Treasury revoked the June 21st Iran-related waiver, General License X, which had allowed Iran to produce, deliver and sell its oil; and US President Trumpâs remarks this morning accelerated the move higher in USD/oil with âIran ceasefire is over "I think" the kicker. Kiwi was the clear outperformer post RBNZ, but reversed gains against the Buck after the aforementioned Trump remarks. To briefly recap, the RBNZ hiked rates by 25bps in a unanimous decision, signalling further hikes to bring inflation to the 2% target mid-point; this saw some participants unwind bets for a hold. AUD/NZD appears the preferred vehicle to express the in-line/hawkish decision, now the Buck has picked up. JPY continues to underperform amid carry/Terms of Trade implications. USD/JPY remains on a 162.00 handle and has essentially pared that downside seen on potential intervention fears last week having risen throughout the London morning. Reporting overnight via Asahi and Nikkei noted that the Japanese government may tweak a reference to monetary policy in its annual policy agenda to avoid the appearance that it is putting pressure on the BoJ. Fixed Income Fixed income started on the backfoot, as benchmarks gradually moved lower as energy continued to move higher overnight given the US revoked Iranâs oil waiver and then conducted strikes on 80 Iranian targets in retaliation to Iran targeting various cargo vessels on Tuesday. The early morning saw modest additional pressure, with Bunds and USTs lower by roughly 40 and five ticks, respectively, at first. The scheduled docket ahead featured supply and a few data points, but we were primarily awaiting comments from the US and/or Iran after the overnight action. US President Trump then spoke in Ankara, in a relatively short but packed interview where he said the ceasefire with Iran is over âI thinkâ and specifically on the MoU said, âthink it is overâ. An update that sparked a marked and continuing move higher in energy, with crude firmer by over 6% and Dutch TTF by over 5%. As such, yields across the curve have jumped, benefiting the short-end most, and curves are bear-flattening globally, though with the US belly faring almost the same as the short-end. USTs down to a 108-29 base, lower by 13 ticks. We now look to the US 10yr note auction after Tuesdayâs 3yr, and thereafter Fed Minutes for June, which will be scoured for further insight into how the first meeting led by Warsh went and how any discussions/disagreements among the board were presented; with particular reference to any mention around Warshâs view on forward guidance. Bunds went down to around 125.30 following the above energy action and Trump language, lower by over 80 ticks. Energy-related action aside, the main focus point was a dismal first tap of a 2036 Bund, drawing a b/c of just 1.03x. Results of this sent Bunds lower by nearly 10 ticks, to a 125.23 base. Gilts opened lower by 57 ticks, acknowledging the US waiver removal yesterday and the tit-for-tat strikes overnight. Thereafter, as Trump spoke, further downside was seen, sending Gilts lower by 130 ticks in total to an 87.16 base. As usual, Gilts underperform amid periods of pronounced energy upside given the sensitivity of the UK market to global benchmarks. Germany sold EUR 3.902bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.03x, average yield 3.09%, retention 35%. UK sold GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2028 Treasury Gilts via Tender: b/c 4.97x (prev. 4.28x), average yield 3.989% (prev. 4.219%), tail (prev. 0.3bps). Jefferies (JEF) to sell EUR-denominated 7yr noted; guidance seen +175bps to MS. Spain has reportedly proposed the EU issue an annual EUR 850bln in bonds to save countries billions of euros in interest costs, POLITICO reported. Australia sold AUD 900mln 4.25% 2036 AGBs: b/c 4.55x (prev. 3.86x), average yield 4.8745% (prev. 4.9735%). Commodities Following Iranâs decision to hit Saudi and Qatari tankers, the US struck various sites in Iran. As a result, Iran then hit regional partners, including Bahrain and Kuwait. US President Trump, who was speaking at the NATO Summit in Ankara, berated the Iranian regime. He stated that it is a waste of time dealing with Iran, and ultimately stated that he thinks the ceasefire and MoU is âoverâ. The mention of he âthinksâ, gives the US a little bit of optionality on whether the deal is actually over; he stated that he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk. Nonetheless, the risks of a wider escalation remain; markets now await clarification on whether the MoU has officially ended, the Iranian response and also how Qatari/Pakistani mediators react to the comments made by Trump. WTI and Brent started the European session with gains in excess of 2%, but surged higher following the Trump comments; currently +5.6%. WTI Augâ26 holds at the top end of a USD 71.75-75.30/bbl range, whilst Brent Septâ26 sits near peaks of USD 75.44-79.26/bbl range. The latter remains well below the levels seen following the initial signing of the Islamabad MoU (USD 85/bbl), which signals some hopes that a) the Strait will remain open, b) the current MoU holds. On this theme, markets remain in backwardation, with front-month Brent prices still higher than second-month; should this flip, it would indicate that traders expect another large-scale supply glut. Spot gold (-1.2%) trades lower this morning, and at the bottom end of a USD 4,050-4,133/oz range. Much of the pressure came following the Trump comments, given the USD strength and the inflationary implications of the ceasefire being over. Base metals are broadly lower, given the risk-tone; 3M LME Copper trades at USD 13,190-13,396/t range. Kuwaitâs Ministry of Electricity said power lines were damaged by shrapnel in recent attacks. European Commission, on the ETS revision, said they are still considering how and whether to add international carbon credits. Revision will include permanent domestic carbon removal. Will propose further investment. Russiaâs Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected. China reportedly lifts restrictions on refined fuel exports for the rest of July, according to sources. China purchases at least 5 more US soybean cargoes, Bloomberg reported. Japan aluminium premiums for Jul-Sep shipment set at USD 395/t, +12-13% Q/Q. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.399mln (exp. -1.5mln), Distillates -1.801mln (exp. +1mln), Gasoline -2.929mln (exp. -1.55mln), Cushing -0.069mln. Trade/Tariffs Spanish PM Spokesperson said the trade comments from US President Trump are business as usual. USTR Greer said Canada and Mexico have not lived up to everything. Geopolitics: Iran Commentary Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US has violated major parts of the MoU, citing US attacks on southern Iran, reinstating oil sanctions and threats of further strikes as MoU violations. Iran's Foreign Ministry states that the US activity overnight has "rendered important and fundamental parts of the Memorandum of Understanding on the End of the War ineffective". Iranian President Pezeshkian said the US, whether as World Cup host or in its foreign policy, manipulates the rules and resorts to deception, and that Iran rejects such tactics. Iran's top joint miliary command said Iran will give a crushing response to America's aggression and terrorist action, and under no circumstances will they allow them to interfere in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz and its management. Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said US President Trump intends to attack again and we are fully prepared. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemns the US Treasury's move to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, will take any measure it deems necessary to safeguard its interests and national security. Iran holds the US government responsible for the consequences of the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding. Overnight Attacks Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published. Elsewhere, sirens were reported in Bahrain once again. Renewed explosions sounds heard around Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, Mehr reported. Iran's army said it targeted the Sheikh Isa Base in Bahrain and warns of more attacks if the US repeats strikes on Iran, Mehr reported. Iran's IRGC said that, in response to the US aggression, they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base. Iran's IRGC said they downed a US Mq9 drone in the south of Iran, Press TV reported. Iran fires several anti-ship missiles and drones towards US Navy warships in the Sea of Oman, Fars reported citing the Middle East Spectator. A US official said the strike on Iran was a punitive action, not a proportional response, and that the operation will not end in the short term, CNN reported. US Commentary US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars". US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time". US President Trump said have had some great meetings; attacked very powerfully against Iran last night. Have wasted a lot of time with Iran. Iran does not know what it is doing. Iran shot rockets at the ships, which is why the US shot back. Iran is a "dirty" player, "are scum". US President Trump approved the Iran strike plan and ordered it while in Turkey, a US official tells Axios' Ravid; the official said it is still unclear how long the strikes are going to continue. US Secretary of Defence Hegseth has cancelled his visit to Israel, N12/Ynet report. Others Turkish President Erdogan said Europe must take more responsibility when it comes to NATO. US President Trump said China is attempting to takeover the Panama Canal, will not let this happen. China has been treating the US right. Big fan of Chinese President Xi. Ukrainian Armed Forces said Kyiv is under missile attack. Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon. A Pakistani Boeing (BA) plane flying to Karachi has crashed, with sources stating the plane was mistakenly targeted by the US, IRIB reported. Chevronâs (CVX) Yasa Polaris oil tanker, used for CPC shipments, was attacked by drones off Russiaâs Black Sea coast, according to sources. Russiaâs Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected. Ukraine's Military said it struck two oil refineries, six tankers, bridges and the Borisoglebsk airfield; AIF-NK oil refinery in Nizhny Kamsk was also damaged. US Event Calendar 7:00 am: United States Jul 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0% 10:00 am: United States May F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Asian equity markets are largely lower this morning as investors digest a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions overnight. American forces launched strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran, including air defence systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations, and anti-ship missile capabilities, in response to recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes were accompanied by the US Treasuryâs decision to revoke a waiver that had allowed new Iranian oil sales, a move that threatens to undermine the fragile US-Iran interim peace agreement reached last month. The developments have reignited concerns about energy supplies and geopolitical risk, helping Brent crude rise more than 2% and trade near $76/bbl this morning after rising more than 5% yesterday, driven by the fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with Monday seeing the most incidents since the US-Iran interim agreement came into effect on June 17. Iran has condemned both measures as violations of the agreement and vowed a response, raising concerns that the fragile peace process reached last month could unravel before negotiations on a permanent settlement are completed. While US officials have stressed that talks towards a longer-term accord continue, the latest escalation represents the most serious test yet for the ceasefire. Against this backdrop, risk sentiment across Asia is weak but not as much as you may have imagined given the attacks. S&P, Nasdaq and Stoxx futures are all pretty much flat with the rest of Asia down or up depending on which side of the tech stack they sit on. The KOSPI losses have accelerated as I'm typing, currently down -5.57% in what seem very fast markets with the Nikkei -0.96%, and the S&P/ASX 200 down -0.49%. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are firmer ahead of tomorrowâs June inflation report, with the CSI 300 (+0.61%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.52%) moderately higher, whilst the Hang Seng (+2.38%) is outperforming as technology stocks there recover. However, they are just reopening after their lunchtime break as I type so given the vol elsewhere this could change by the time you read. Ahead of the overnight moves, markets struggled to gain traction yesterday, as the jump in oil prices revived familiar fears about stagflation. That led to clear pain for US Treasuries. For instance, the 10yr yield was up +8.2bps on the day to 4.55%, whilst the 30yr yield (+7.13bps) closed above 5% for the first time in nearly a month, at 5.06%. And on top of the oil moves, those trends got a fresh push from the NY Fedâs latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. It showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.7%, the highest since September 2023, whilst 3yr expectations were up to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. So that leant in a hawkish direction and meant investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate hikes, with the amount priced by the December meeting up +5.1bps on the day to 34bps. As all that was happening, there wasnât much respite for equities either, as chipmakers saw a renewed slump that took the Philly semiconductor index (-4.65%) to its lowest in nearly a month. Indeed, the index is now -15.95% beneath its highs in mid-June, after just posting its best quarter ever in Q2. To be fair it wasnât all bad news, and US equities saw a rotation into defensive sectors. Energy (+3.02%), healthcare (+1.55%), consumer staples (+0.99%) and utilities (+0.91%) all had a strong performance. Moreover, a majority of the S&P 500âs constituents were still higher, with 283 companies rising on the day. But the chip declines still dragged on the overall performance, with the S&P 500 ultimately down -0.45%.  Over in Europe, political developments were in focus yesterday in both France and the UK. In France, Marine Le Pen said sheâd be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, after appeal judges shortened a ban on her running for office. The first round isnât happening until April 18, with the run-off then two weeks later on May 2, but todayâs news means that the outlines of the campaign are coming into view. Meanwhile in the UK, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned as an MP, forcing a by-election that Farage himself is going to stand in. His resignation follows questions around a ÂŁ5m gift from a Reform UK donor, which had triggered a parliamentary standards probe. Moreover, last weekend the Sunday Times reported that he hadnât declared benefits from a long-time ally, George Cottrell. So with Farage under growing scrutiny, calling a by-election was seen as a way for him to regain momentum, particularly after Reform UK underperformed polls in the recent Makerfield by-election won by Andy Burnham. However, all the main political parties have said they won't stand a candidate, effectively calling it a political charade. So it'll be interesting to see if it backfires. Tomorrow will also see nominations open for the Labour leadership contest that will decide the next PM, although former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham remains the only declared candidate.  Amidst all the political developments, there wasnât too much of a market reaction in Europe, with bond yields moving higher across the board because of the oil price rise. So yields on 10yr bunds (+4.6bps), OATs (+5.6bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) all moved higher on the day, with the STOXX 600 (-0.65%) also falling back as well.  The NATO leadersâ summit will continue for a second day today, with President Trump saying yesterday that the US âcould remove all our soldiers out of Europeâ and reiterated his desire for Greenland to be under US control. Otherwise, there were multiple reports of defence industry deals that had been agreed, with Bloomberg reporting that was over $50bn.  Shifting back to Asia to close, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has implemented its first key interest rate hike in three years, raising the official cash rate to 2.50% from 2.25%. This move, which was expected, signals the central bank's intention to transition to a less stimulatory monetary setting in an effort to curb inflationary pressures. The decision follows a split vote at the bank's previous meeting in May, where Governor Anna Breman had used her casting vote to maintain the cash rate. Following the decision, the New Zealand dollar strengthened by +0.42% to just above 57 cents against the US dollar, with the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year notes increasing by +4.5bps, now trading at 3.37%, amidst reinforced expectations for additional rate hikes this year. Looking at the day ahead, the highlights will include the minutes of the FOMCâs June meeting, along with remarks from the ECBâs Kocher, Moulin, Nagel and Dolenc. Otherwise there isnât much data, although weâll get Swedenâs CPI for June, Franceâs current account balance for May, and US consumer credit for May. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 08:32