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"They're Scum": Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Is Over, Sending Oil Higher
"They're Scum": Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Is Over, Sending Oil Higher Brent crude futures jumped more than 6% in London after President Trump told reporters at a press conference in Ankara that the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over. "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore; they're scum," Trump told reporters. Trump says the ceasefire between U.S. and Iran is over. "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore; they're scum", the U.S. president says. Live updates: https://t.co/l9KwsXPz0p pic.twitter.com/mqfE5qKOHe — Sky News (@SkyNews) July 8, 2026 Trump's remarks came after Iran launched missiles and kamikaze drones at several merchant vessels in the Hormuz chokepoint on Tuesday. This was countered by overnight US strikes, as fears of conflict erupting once more are on the rise. However, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing. In European trade, front-month Brent crude futures jumped 6% to $78.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel. Natural gas prices rose as well, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 4.8% to 49.04 euros per megawatt-hour. Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the interim deal. Trump also told reporters that he would continue to let his negotiators talk to Tehran, though he thought "they're wasting their time." On Tuesday afternoon, the Joint Maritime Information Center upgraded the Hormuz risk rating to "Severe" after three tankers were targeted by Iran. This renewed uncertainty in the critical waterway will only pressure the normalization of vessel flows. "Every renewed attack on commercial shipping further erodes confidence in the Strait's reopening, making each future recovery more fragile than the last," said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. "If every reopening is assumed to be temporary, freight rates remain elevated, insurance costs remain high and fewer vessels are willing to re-enter the Gulf." Dominic Ellis, UBS equity analyst covering oil and gas, wrote in a note: The US carried out a new round of strikes against Iran in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran in turn launched missile and drone attacks on US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. While this latest escalation does not mean an end to the diplomatic progress made in recent weeks, it underscores the challenges of diplomacy when both sides believe they have the upper hand. Markets were too quick to buy into the de-escalation narrative in my view, and while there has been evidence of progress and of a rebound in vessel flows via the Strait of Hormuz, the latest developments may lead to more realistic expectations on the return to normalcy and a slightly higher range for oil in the near term. The likelihood of a spike above $100/b remains low, however, even in the event of further tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East, given the surprise sustained drop in Chinese crude imports. Latest Bloomberg data tracking ships transiting the Hormuz chokepoint with transponders on remain elevated, but the number of vessels making the East-West route has fallen dramatically, while West-East remains steady. Also, note that the oil market's forward curve has shifted into backwardation. This occurs when near-term futures trade at a premium to longer-dated contracts. The shift shows traders are once again willing to pay up for immediate crude supplies. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 07:05
'Liars, Cheats, Sick People': What Trump Said About Iran's Leadership As He Announces Ceasefire Is Over
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he no longer sees any point in engaging with Iran, declaring that negotiations over the country's nuclear programme are effectively over while launching a blistering attack on Tehran's leadership. Reuters reported that Trump accused Iranian leaders of negotiating in bad faith and suggested there was no reason for the United States to continue diplomatic efforts. "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them. They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people," Trump said. "As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time dealing with them. They're liars." ALSO READ: Hormuz Tensions To Escalate After US Strikes? Iran Says It Won't Allow Interference In Strait "We make a deal, they go outside, talk to the press, they say we never even talked about it. There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. As far as I'm concerned, it's over," he added. "They can talk, but I think they're wasting their time," Trump said, speaking to reporters during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. Trump's comments come at a time of heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran following recent military confrontation in the region. According to Reuters, the remarks were made as the US resumed military strikes on Iranian targets after attacks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, further raising concerns over the possibility of a broader regional conflict. ALSO READ: US-Iran War Live News Updates: Ceasefire Is Over, Says Trump; Tehran Declares US-Linked Sites Legitimate Targets The latest verbal remark marks one of Trump's strongest dismissals of diplomacy with Iran since the recent escalation. His comments indicate that the administration is increasingly sceptical about the prospects of reaching a fresh agreement over Tehran's nuclear programme. Reuters also reported that the recent exchange reflects the widening divide between the two countries, with diplomatic channels appearing to have stalled as military tensions continue to rise. The moves are being keenly followed by regional allies and global markets, amid fears that any further escalation might have huge geopolitical and economic consequences. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
NATO allies sharpen focus on Arctic, defense spending, Ukraine as summit enters final day
NATO leaders arrived for the second and final day of the alliance's summit in Ankara on Wednesday, with security in the Arctic, defense spending, Iran's nuclear ambitions and military support for Ukraine dominating doorstep remarks ahead of closed-door meetings. NATO chief Mark Rutte said allies must ensure that Russia and China do not gain greater access to the Arctic, describing the region as an increasingly important strategic theater. Addressing questions over Greenland, Rutte said NATO has "a good process" in place regarding the island. Discussing security in the Middle East, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, he said he expected allies to reaffirm that Iran “should never ever get its hands on a nuclear capability.” Rutte credited US President Donald Trump with helping rebalance defense spending between North America and Europe, saying the alliance had entered a stronger phase that he described as "NATO 3.0." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the security environment has changed dramatically, citing hybrid warfare, hypersonic missiles and Russia as NATO's direct adversary. He said Canada will increase defense spending from 1.5% of GDP to 4% within the next two years and announced the extension of Canada's Operation Reassurance mission in Latvia. Carney said the burden of defense is shifting from the US toward Canada and Europe but stressed that President Donald Trump remains committed to NATO while expecting allies to contribute more. He also called for de-escalation in the Middle East while warning that recent developments underscore the enduring threats facing the alliance. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Europe's rearmament and a stronger transatlantic defense industrial base should be the summit's top priority as the global security environment becomes increasingly unstable. She called for additional support for Ukraine and greater pressure on Russia, saying allied unity has never been more important. On Greenland, Frederiksen reiterated that the island is "not for sale" and only the people of Greenland can determine its future. She added that Denmark is prepared to defend "every inch of NATO," including Greenland, if necessary. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said NATO is delivering on the commitments made at last year's summit by building a stronger Europe within a stronger alliance. He stressed that European allies have significantly increased defense spending and expanded military-industrial cooperation, making NATO stronger for both Europe and the US. Jetten also emphasized the need to pursue a diplomatic solution to tensions involving Iran. He said closer European-American defense cooperation demonstrates that a stronger Europe is in Washington's interest as well. Polish President Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki said Russia remains NATO's principal threat and warned that Moscow could use military force against European countries. He said Poland wants to establish a permanent base for American troops, noting that nearly 10,000 US soldiers are already stationed in the country. Nawrocki said a lasting American military presence would strengthen security on NATO's eastern flank and help protect Central and Eastern Europe. He added that Poland continues to invest heavily in strengthening its own armed forces. Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar reiterated Budapest's opposition to deeper military involvement in Ukraine. He said Hungary will not send weapons or troops to Ukraine despite continued allied support for Kyiv. Peter Magyar's remarks again highlighted divisions within the alliance over the scope of military assistance to Ukraine. Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir said Greenland's future should be decided solely by its people, stressing that they do not want to become part of the US. She said NATO has become stronger over the past year with more members and higher defense spending despite evolving geopolitical dynamics. Frostadottir argued the alliance should focus less on debates over Greenland and more on addressing the threat posed by Russia. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said NATO must be prepared for a range of scenarios involving Russia while European allies continue assuming greater responsibility for the continent's security. He said Sweden plans to reach NATO's 5% defense investment target by 2030 and highlighted the importance of expanding Europe's defense industrial capacity following the alliance's decision to procure the GlobalEye airborne surveillance system. Jonson described continued military support for Ukraine as NATO's foremost priority and urged more allies to increase their contributions. He noted that Sweden is supplying Ukraine with 16 previously operated Gripen fighter jets while procuring 16 next-generation Gripen E aircraft for its own air force. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said European allies have increasingly assumed greater responsibility for their own security, calling it a long-overdue rebalancing within NATO. He said Greece has already met the alliance's 3.5% defense spending target and is implementing a €25 billion military modernization program despite longstanding regional security challenges. Mitsotakis reiterated his support for a stronger European defense pillar that complements rather than competes with NATO. He also expressed hope that the ceasefire between Iran and the US would hold, giving diplomacy time to prevent renewed regional tensions and higher energy prices. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said Estonia is investing nearly 7% of its GDP in defense this year and urged allies to rapidly strengthen military capabilities and defense spending. He called for a stronger forward defense posture against Russia, describing Moscow as a direct and credible threat to the entire alliance, while stressing the need to expand NATO's defense industrial capacity. Michal said Ukraine is fighting not only for its own freedom but also for Europe's security, noting Estonia has committed annual military assistance equivalent to 0.35% of GDP. Citing recent incidents involving undersea infrastructure, airspace violations and NATO air policing in the Baltic region, he said the alliance's collective defense mechanisms are working effectively and remain essential for regional security. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said he does not expect the US to withdraw its military presence from Europe, arguing NATO continues to provide significant security benefits for Washington. He said Norway's role in safeguarding the High North and the Arctic contributes directly to both European and US homeland security. Store emphasized that NATO is a defensive alliance designed to deter aggression, not threaten others, while reiterating the need for a ceasefire and a just, lasting peace in Ukraine. He also highlighted Norway's major investments in naval capabilities and closer cooperation with Britain, Canada and Germany to strengthen security in northern waters. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said NATO has undergone a remarkable transformation in just a few years, pointing to the accession of Finland and Sweden, increased defense spending and greater European responsibility within the alliance. He said few would have predicted four years ago that both Nordic countries would join NATO or that allies would commit to spending 5% of GDP on defense. Stubb added that the implementation of what he called "NATO 3.0" reflects a historic shift in burden-sharing from the US toward Europe. He said the changes demonstrate how quickly the alliance has adapted to the evolving security environment. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the Ankara summit comes at a critical moment as allies confront the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. He said leaders would discuss a range of important security issues and agree on concrete actions to strengthen the alliance. Starmer stressed that the summit is an opportunity for NATO members to demonstrate their unity and collective strength in the face of growing global challenges. news_share_descriptionsubscription_contact
NATO allies sharpen focus on Arctic, defense spending, Ukraine as summit enters final day
Dilara Hamit, Efe Ozkan 08 July 2026•Update: 08 July 2026 NATO leaders arrived for the second and final day of the alliance's summit in Ankara on Wednesday, with security in the Arctic, defense spending, Iran's nuclear ambitions and military support for Ukraine dominating doorstep remarks ahead of closed-door meetings. NATO chief Mark Rutte said allies must ensure that Russia and China do not gain greater access to the Arctic, describing the region as an increasingly important strategic theater. Addressing questions over Greenland, Rutte said NATO has "a good process" in place regarding the island. Discussing security in the Middle East, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, he said he expected allies to reaffirm that Iran "should never ever get its hands on a nuclear capability." Rutte credited US President Donald Trump with helping rebalance defense spending between North America and Europe, saying the alliance had entered a stronger phase that he described as "NATO 3.0." Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the summit's top priority should be accelerating Europe's rearmament and expanding the alliance's defense industrial base to strengthen NATO's long-term deterrence. Asked about Greenland, Frederiksen said Denmark was prepared to defend "every inch of NATO," including the Arctic island, if it were attacked. Polish President Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki said Warsaw wants to establish a permanent base for American troops in Poland, underscoring the country's continued push for a stronger long-term US military presence on NATO's eastern flank. Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar reiterated Budapest's opposition to deeper military involvement in Ukraine, saying Hungary would not provide weapons or troops to the country. The comments highlighted broad agreement among allies on boosting defense capabilities while also exposing lingering differences over support for Ukraine as leaders prepared for another day of high-level discussions in the Turkish capital.
How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxies
How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's paramilitary proxy groups, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, all of whom are opposed to the US and Israel. The assumption was that "by hitting the right leaders, weapons facilities and supply lines, an outside actor could induce catastrophic failure across the Iranian regime and its web of Middle Eastern allies," said Peter Salisbury, a fellow at US think tank Century International and lead author of the think tank's recently published report"Beyond the Axis." Despite the US and Israel achieving many of those military objectives, Iranian forces were able to continue launching drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while their allies in Lebanon and Yemen intensified attacks against Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Operational autonomy For Wolf-Christian Paes, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and one of the contributors to the "Beyond the Axis" report, the term "proxies" is actually misleading as it implies a command-and-control relationship between Tehran and the members of the axis. "Unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV] proliferation is a good example," he told DW. A few years ago, Tehran transferred complete systems and the necessary training to its allies. "Today these militias can build their own UAVs, based on Iranian designs, with most of the parts coming from countries other than Iran," Paes said. For example, according to the report, which was published after two years of research, these groups are able to source large quantities of engines for the Shahed-136 drone directly from Chinese manufacturers. "Dual-use technology is difficult to control in the first place and without a traditional hub for smuggling, tracking the supply chain is like looking for a needle in a haystack," Paes told DW, adding that for example China, Russia but also Oman have so far made no real attempts to control the movement of these items. According to the "Beyond the Axis" report, drone-related conflict incidents around the world rose from 140 in 2016 to more than 58,000 in 2025, a 41,000% increase. Regional ties with Iran changing "The growing ability of Iran's partners to manufacture and deploy drones independently is also changing the nature of their relationship with Tehran," Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. In his view, the Houthi militia in Yemen illustrates this trend. The group now possesses a level of operational autonomy that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago. "Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah helped establish the foundations of the Houthis' drone and missile programs, while years of conflict and isolation compelled them to develop domestic production capabilities," he told DW. During the two-year war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, the Houthis attacked Israel as well as international shipping in the Red Sea with drones and missiles in what they said was a bid to show support for Palestinians in Gaza. During the war in Iran from February to April 2026, the Houthis resumed attacks. The report also notes that, since at least 2022, a small group of senior Houthi officers in Sanaa have built relationships across the African coasts of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. "Houthi smuggling networks are now present in Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan," the report said. Lebanon's Hezbollah militia For many years, Lebanon's Hezbollah militia was Tehran's best-equipped proxy largely because of its proximity to Israel. A day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct.7, 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front in Israel's north which escalated into a war in Lebanon. "Israeli efforts to degrade the organization's leadership and military infrastructure created a situation in which Iranian assistance became essential for recovery," Quilliam said. A November 2024 ceasefire fell apart in early March 2026, after Hezbollah attacked Israel with drones and missiles following the Israeli killing of the Iran's leader Ali Khamenei, who Hezbollah also pledged allegiance to. In the peace talks between the US and Tehran, the front in Lebanon has since become a key issue. "Hezbollah's participation alongside Iran during the recent conflict, coupled with Tehran's insistence that any ceasefire arrangement include Lebanon, demonstrated how closely the two remain linked," Quilliam said. Hamas in Gaza, paramilitary groups in Iraq As a consequence of Israel's prolonged military campaign in Gaza, Tehran's access to Gaza and Hamas is reduced, Quilliam said. "That should not be mistaken for a permanent decline in Iranian relevance, as the relationships, training networks and technical expertise developed over decades have not disappeared," he told DW. In his view, Tehran's ties to Hamas illustrate how military cooperation can survive even when political influence temporarily recedes. In Iraq, Tehran-linked armed groups need to balance local Iraqi interests against their ties with Iran, Quilliam observed. While greater drone self-sufficiency gives them more independent means of projecting power and expanding influence, "the challenge for Tehran increasingly lies in coordinating a growing number of capable actors whose interests only partially overlap," Quilliam said. In his view, Iran retains influence through political relationships, training, intelligence sharing and strategic coordination across all of these groups. "But influence is not the same as control," he told DW. 'New type of challenge' Salisbury, of Century International, agrees that Iran is still the militia groups' most powerful and consequential node but the relationship between Tehran and the proxies has turned into one of mutual interdependence. "Capabilities, data and strategic needs flow in multiple directions," he said. Does all this make it harder for Iran's opponents to dismantle these networks, and to reduce the threat of drone warfare from them? "Looking ahead, the most significant consequence of drone proliferation across the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' may be the emergence of multiple centers of expertise within what was once viewed primarily as an Iranian-led system," Quilliam told DW. "This makes the wider network more resilient, harder to disrupt and potentially more unpredictable."
How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxies
How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's paramilitary proxy groups, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, all of whom are opposed to the US and Israel. The assumption was that "by hitting the right leaders, weapons facilities and supply lines, an outside actor could induce catastrophic failure across the Iranian regime and its web of Middle Eastern allies," said Peter Salisbury, a fellow at US think tank Century International and lead author of the think tank's recently published report"Beyond the Axis." Despite the US and Israel achieving many of those military objectives, Iranian forces were able to continue launching drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while their allies in Lebanon and Yemen intensified attacks against Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Operational autonomy For Wolf-Christian Paes, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and one of the contributors to the "Beyond the Axis" report, the term "proxies" is actually misleading as it implies a command-and-control relationship between Tehran and the members of the axis. "Unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV] proliferation is a good example," he told DW. A few years ago, Tehran transferred complete systems and the necessary training to its allies. "Today these militias can build their own UAVs, based on Iranian designs, with most of the parts coming from countries other than Iran," Paes said. For example, according to the report, which was published after two years of research, these groups are able to source large quantities of engines for the Shahed-136 drone directly from Chinese manufacturers. "Dual-use technology is difficult to control in the first place and without a traditional hub for smuggling, tracking the supply chain is like looking for a needle in a haystack," Paes told DW, adding that for example China, Russia but also Oman have so far made no real attempts to control the movement of these items. According to the "Beyond the Axis" report, drone-related conflict incidents around the world rose from 140 in 2016 to more than 58,000 in 2025, a 41,000% increase. Changing ties "The growing ability of Iran's partners to manufacture and deploy drones independently is also changing the nature of their relationship with Tehran," Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. In his view, the Houthi militia in Yemen illustrates this trend. The group now possesses a level of operational autonomy that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago. "Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah helped establish the foundations of the Houthis' drone and missile programs, while years of conflict and isolation compelled them to develop domestic production capabilities," he told DW. During the two-year war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, the Houthis attacked Israel as well as international shipping in the Red Sea with drones and missiles in what they said was a bid to show support for Palestinians in Gaza. During the war in Iran from February to April 2026, the Houthis resumed attacks. The report also notes that, since at least 2022, a small group of senior Houthi officers in Sanaa have built relationships across the African coasts of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. "Houthi smuggling networks are now present in Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan," the report said. Lebanon's Hezbollah militia For many years, Lebanon's Hezbollah militia was Tehran's best equipped proxy largely because of its proximity to Israel. A day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct.7, 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front in Israel's north which escalated into a war in Lebanon. "Israeli efforts to degrade the organization's leadership and military infrastructure created a situation in which Iranian assistance became essential for recovery," Quilliam said. A November 2024 ceasefire fell apart in early March 2026, after Hezbollah attacked Israel with drones and missiles following the Israeli killing of the Iran's leader Ali Khamenei, who Hezbollah also pledged allegiance to. In the peace talks between the US and Tehran, the front in Lebanon has since become a key issue. "Hezbollah's participation alongside Iran during the recent conflict, coupled with Tehran's insistence that any ceasefire arrangement include Lebanon, demonstrated how closely the two remain linked," Quilliam said. Hamas in Gaza, paramilitary groups in Iraq As a consequence of Israel's prolonged military campaign in Gaza, Tehran's access to Gaza and Hamas is reduced, Quilliam said. "That should not be mistaken for a permanent decline in Iranian relevance, as the relationships, training networks and technical expertise developed over decades have not disappeared," he told DW. In his view, Tehran's ties to Hamas illustrates how military cooperation can survive even when political influence temporarily recedes. In Iraq, Tehran-linked armed groups need to balance local Iraqi interests against their ties with Iran, Quilliam observed. While greater drone self-sufficiency gives them more independent means of projecting power and expanding influence, "the challenge for Tehran increasingly lies in coordinating a growing number of capable actors whose interests only partially overlap," Quilliam said. In his view, Iran retains influence through political relationships, training, intelligence sharing and strategic coordination across all of these groups. "But influence is not the same as control," he told DW. 'New type of challenge' Salisbury, of Century International, agrees that Iran is still the militia groups' most powerful and consequential node but the relationship between Tehran and the proxies has turned into one of mutual interdependence. "Capabilities, data and strategic needs flow in multiple directions," he said. Does all this make it harder for Iran's opponents to dismantle these networks, and to reduce the threat of drone warfare from them? "Looking ahead, the most significant consequence of drone proliferation across the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' may be the emergence of multiple centers of expertise within what was once viewed primarily as an Iranian-led system," Quilliam told DW. "This makes the wider network more resilient, harder to disrupt and potentially more unpredictable."
Trump revives Greenland push, says NATO allies ‘let us down’ as summit opens in Ankara
US President Donald Trump reignited one of his most controversial foreign policy positions on Tuesday, insisting that the United States should control Greenland while sharply criticising NATO allies for failing to support Washington during the Iran war, setting a combative tone as alliance leaders gathered for the NATO summit in Ankara. Speaking alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump said he remained disappointed with several NATO members, accusing countries including Britain, France, Germany and Italy of refusing to back the United States during the conflict with Iran. At the same time, he repeated his long-standing demand that Greenland should come under US control, arguing the Arctic island was strategically vital in countering Russia and China. “That should be controlled by the United States, not by Denmark,” Trump said, repeating a claim that has repeatedly strained ties with fellow NATO member Denmark. Trump renews criticism of NATO allies Trump said he had considered skipping the summit altogether and attended largely because of his close relationship with Erdogan. “We weren’t treated well,” Trump said, arguing that while the United States had invested “trillions of dollars” in NATO, several allies declined to participate in the Iran war even after Washington sought their support. He nevertheless insisted the US neither wanted nor needed their military assistance. His remarks revived long-running concerns among European leaders that Trump could once again question NATO’s collective security commitments or reduce America’s military presence on the continent. Turkey gets major boost Despite criticising many NATO allies, Trump offered Ankara a significant diplomatic win by announcing that Washington would lift sanctions imposed on Turkey in 2020 over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defence system. Story continues below this ad He also said the US was prepared to consider selling F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey, potentially ending years of defence tensions between the two NATO allies. Any sale, however, would still have to overcome legal and congressional restrictions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the announcement, saying he expected the two countries to deepen defence cooperation. NATO — ANKARA SUMMIT 2026 Trump's message to NATO at the Ankara Summit Disappointment with allies, a Greenland demand, backing for Turkey, and a read on Ukraine — the key takeaways from Trump's remarks. ● Disappointed with allies Britain, France, Germany, Italy — says they didn't back the US in the Iran war. As Trump arrived in Ankara, NATO sought to demonstrate that European allies were responding to repeated US demands to spend more on defence. Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced a series of multinational procurement projects, including new Saab GlobalEye surveillance aircraft, additional surveillance drones and air-refuelling aircraft. A NATO official said the agreements were collectively worth around $50 billion. Story continues below this ad Rutte called for a “defence industry revolution”, warning that Russia’s military expansion, alongside challenges posed by China, North Korea and Iran, required urgent investment in military capabilities. Ukraine remains on the agenda The summit also focused on continued support for Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urging allies to provide additional air-defence systems after another wave of Russian missile and drone attacks killed dozens around Kyiv. Trump said he had recently spoken to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy and believed both leaders wanted to negotiate an end to the war. “I think they both want to make a deal,” Trump said. “Something’s going to come out.” Story continues below this ad Why it matters Trump’s remarks underscore the tensions that continue to define his relationship with NATO. While European allies are increasing defence spending and announcing new arms projects, the US President has renewed criticism of the alliance, revived his demand to acquire Greenland and signalled a willingness to reshape key defence partnerships, including restoring military ties with Turkey. Those moves are likely to dominate discussions at the Ankara summit even as NATO seeks to project unity in the face of continued security challenges. The Express Global Desk at indianexpress.com which delivers authoritative, verified, and context-driven coverage of key international developments shaping global politics, policy, and migration trends. The desk focuses on stories with direct relevance for Indian and global audiences, combining breaking news with in-depth explainers and analysis. A major focus area of the desk is US immigration and visa policy, including developments related to student visas, work permits, permanent residency pathways, executive actions, and court rulings. The Global Desk also closely tracks Canada’s immigration, visa, and study policies, covering changes to study permits, post-study work options, permanent residence programmes, and regulatory updates affecting migrants and international students. All reporting from the Global Desk adheres to The Indian Express’ editorial standards, relying on official data, government notifications, court documents, and on-record sources. The desk prioritises clarity, accuracy, and accountability, ensuring readers can navigate complex global systems with confidence. Core Team The Express Global Desk is led by a team of experienced journalists and editors with deep expertise in international affairs and migration policy: Aniruddha Dhar – Senior Assistant Editor with extensive experience in global affairs, international politics, and editorial leadership. Nischai Vats – Deputy Copy Editor specialising in US politics, US visa and immigration policy, and policy-driven international coverage. Mashkoora Khan – Sub-editor focusing on global developments, with a strong emphasis on Canada visa, immigration, and study-related policy coverage. ... Read More
US-Iran Deal Live: Trump says US will ‘make a deal or finish the job’ with Iran
US-Iran Deal Live: Trump says US will 'make a deal or finish the job' with Iran US Iran Diplomatic Talks: Strait ceasefire under strain after reported attacks on commercial ships Fresh attacks on commercial vessels have cast doubt over the memorandum of understanding reached between Washington and Tehran to halt hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect talks held in Doha last week reportedly made little progress on maritime security, while US officials are now said to be considering possible retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets following the latest incidents. Iran-US War: US officials say Iran fired missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz Two US officials told Axios that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night. Both ships reportedly suffered significant damage, though no casualties were reported. The alleged attack comes after a one-week US-Iran understanding to halt attacks in the strategic waterway expired, raising fears of renewed military escalation. Strait of Hormuz Agreement Iran US: Tanker catches fire after projectile strike near Oman A commercial tanker travelling through the Strait of Hormuz caught fire after being struck by a projectile near Limah, Oman, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The vessel sustained damage on its port side while heading towards the Gulf of Oman. Authorities said there was no environmental impact, while investigations into the incident remain underway. US-Iran Deal: Aerial visuals show massive crowds at Khamenei farewell in Tehran and Qom Aerial footage from Tehran and the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom showed massive crowds attending funeral ceremonies for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Republic has organised an extensive week-long mourning programme, with processions expected across multiple cities as supporters pay their final respects to the country's longtime leader. Iran US Peace Agreement: Thousands gather in Tehran for Ali Khamenei's funeral procession Thousands of mourners gathered in Tehran on Sunday for the public farewell ceremony of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Authorities are holding a week-long series of funeral processions following his death in an airstrike during the US-Israel war on Iran. Large crowds were seen filling the streets as Iran began nationwide ceremonies before taking Khamenei's remains to key Shi'ite religious sites. Middle East peace deal Iran US: Netanyahu says action against Iran could unlock more regional peace Benjamin Netanyahu has said the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran has weakened Tehran and could create conditions for new regional peace agreements similar to the Abraham Accords. He also claimed countries in the region are increasingly interested in aligning with Israel for security and economic reasons, while expressing hope for further diplomatic breakthroughs following recent developments in Lebanon. US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Netanyahu dismisses rift with Trump, says they agree ‘99% of the time’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected reports of tensions with US President Donald Trump, saying the two leaders see "eye to eye" on nearly all major issues. He acknowledged occasional disagreements but said they are discussed openly and usually resolved. Netanyahu described Israel as America's closest ally and said both countries continue to work together on regional security and strategic goals. Iran-US War: Trump says US will ‘make a deal or finish the job’ with Iran US President Donald Trump has said Washington will either strike a deal with Iran or "finish the job", while insisting he prefers diplomacy over military action. He said he did not want to hurt Iran's population, but warned the US could inflict massive damage if needed. "We're either going to make a deal, or we're going to finish the job," Trump said, adding that the US could "knock down their bridges in one hour" if conflict escalates.
From missiles to malware: Why the Gulf is stepping up its operational resilience | Fortune
A surge in cyberattacks, physical strikes on cloud infrastructure and the growing use of AI by both attackers and defenders are forcing Gulf states to rethink how they protect critical digital infrastructure. The importance of enhancing operational resilience across the Gulf has taken on new urgency since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28. In the UAE alone, daily cyberattack attempts surged from roughly 200,000 to as many as 700,000 as geopolitical tensions flared over recent months. Last week, the UAE’s financial sector was targeted by a wave of sophisticated cyberattacks. While they were successfully thwarted, the country’s Cyber Security Council noted that cybercriminals are increasingly using AI to develop more advanced techniques. A report published last month by Help AG, the cybersecurity arm of UAE telecoms operator e&, highlighted how AI has emerged as a force multiplier, enabling attackers to accelerate reconnaissance and adapt techniques in real time. As a result, attack lifecycles are compressing. In the first quarter of 2026, Help AG observed how the use of AI has allowed bad actors to complete attacks 65% faster than before, with some causing damage less than 40 hours after first gaining access. Read more: GCC debt markets have rallied since the ceasefire, but tight liquidity remains a key hurdle “The signal across global research is consistent: attackers are compressing the attack lifecycle,” the report authors noted. “The Middle East reflects the same pattern—but under higher exposure intensity.” The rapid digital transformation taking place across the region has increased its exposure to cyberattacks, often leading to more severe economic consequences. According to a recent IBM report, the average cost of a data breach in the Middle East stood at $7.29 million in 2025—significantly above the global average of $4.44 million. Information security spending across MENA is expected to reach $4.07 billion in 2026, up 10.1% from 2025, according to Gartner. In the GCC, sectors such as financial services, energy, logistics, and government are increasingly operating within automated, highly interconnected digital ecosystems, making them particularly vulnerable to attacks. This vulnerability is accelerating a shift from traditional, reactive security models to continuous, adaptive systems that support broader national security objectives. “Organizations today need security that is continuously adaptive, locally aligned and designed to protect critical infrastructure and citizen data in an AI-driven environment,” said Abdulla Ebrahim Al Ahmed, chief government relations officer at e& UAE. Across the UAE and Saudi Arabia, cybersecurity is increasingly being built into infrastructure planning, with sovereign cloud and locally governed systems becoming core design priorities. Sovereign cloud is a specialized cloud computing environment designed to ensure an organization’s data, metadata, and infrastructure remain entirely within a specific legal jurisdiction. Meanwhile, AI has emerged as a transformative force in cybersecurity, reshaping both offensive tactics and defensive capabilities. While bad actors are increasingly deploying AI to scale and automate their operations, organizations are also leveraging the technology to improve threat detection and accelerate response times. “Across the GCC, AI and sovereignty are already reshaping how digital infrastructure is designed, secured, and governed,” said Aleksandar Valjarevic, acting CEO of Help AG. “The findings of this year’s report show that cybersecurity must now operate continuously, at machine speed, and in direct alignment with national resilience priorities. For organizations, the focus is shifting from adding more tools to building adaptive, measurable and locally aligned security capabilities that can withstand sustained pressure.” The report also noted that collaborative security models are becoming more common across the GCC, particularly in government and critical infrastructure sectors. Cybersecurity spending across the GCC is projected to surpass $9.6 billion by 2032 in response to the increased threat, up from $5.9 billion in 2025, according to business consulting firm P&S Intelligence. For a region that has set its sights on becoming a global AI hub, the U.S.-Iran war has exposed the geopolitical vulnerability of the Gulf’s digital infrastructure. In early March, two Amazon Web Services (AWS) data centers in the UAE were directly struck by drones, while one of its centers in Bahrain was damaged by a nearby drone strike. The attacks forced all three centers offline and triggered outages across banking, payments, delivery apps, and enterprise software throughout the region. AWS was forced to transfer computing workloads to other regions and said that it expected the recovery to be “prolonged, given the nature of the physical damage involved.” The strikes were significant for marking the first time that military attacks had directly targeted and disrupted the data center operations of a major U.S. tech company. AWS’ services in Bahrain have since been targeted in further drone strikes and sustained damage as a result. Sam Winter-Levy, technology and international affairs fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, has warned that physical attacks on data centers “are only going to become more common moving forward as AI becomes more and more significant.” Major U.S. technology companies, including Microsoft, Google and Oracle, operate extensive cloud infrastructure across the Gulf. Given Iran’s repeated threats against these facilities, data centers are widely regarded as potential targets in the event of escalating regional tensions. This may lead GCC governments to expand their own data center development plans across multiple sites, instead of relying on a handful of hyperscale campuses, as well as building greater redundancy into networks. Meanwhile, rising security spending and insurance premiums will likely translate into increased costs of building and operating such facilities across the region. “Given the central role of digital infrastructure in national development strategies across the region, the current situation in the Middle East further underscores the need to develop insurance frameworks that account for potential regional instability,” said Elizabeth Heyes, junior technology fellow at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, in a report published last month. “What makes these risks more challenging is not just their scale, but their interconnected nature: disruptions rarely remain contained, instead cascading across supply chains, financial systems, and physical infrastructure. This raises the question of who ultimately bears the cost, and whether existing systems that insure against disruption are equipped to absorb it.” The Gulf has made significant progress in fortifying its cyber resilience and digital infrastructure, but many argue that its insurance frameworks have not kept pace with the growing systemic risks posed by today’s cybercriminals. While cyber insurance is growing in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, penetration remains low compared with more mature markets such as the US and UK. Many businesses, particularly smaller firms, remain underinsured. Furthermore, many cyber policies exclude or limit coverage for acts of war, state-sponsored cyberattacks or widespread infrastructure failures. These exclusions have become more prominent as geopolitical tensions have increased and now need to be addressed.
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks flat as Trump threatens to 'finish job' in Iran
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks flat as Trump threatens to ‘finish the job’ in Iran; Oil creeps above $72 Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. Donald Trump warned the US will “finish the job” in Iran leaving investors unnerved as he renewed military threats following the funeral of Tehran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Brent crude – the international benchmark for oil – traded above $72 per barrel on the news, but did remain close to its lowest levels in more than four months. The rising supply has provided a boost to the market in the last week as more vessels were able to make their way through the Strait of Hormuz. But stalling talks between the US and Iran threaten to derail the recovery. Negotiations for a lasting peace deal ended without any public sign of headway last week. A 60-day ceasefire is currently in place – set to expire next month – with the goal of giving some space for diplomacy. “We’re either going to make a deal or we’re going to finish the job… and it won’t be tough to finish the job. I’d rather make a deal, because I don’t want to affect 91 m people,” Donald Trump said in the Oval Office. “We can knock down their bridges in one hour, we can knock out their energy supply…. They don’t have any money now. We haven’t given them any money.” Meanwhile, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr branded Trump’s threat “delusional.” We’ll be bringing you the latest market updates and analysis. Here’s a few of our top headlines this morning - Patent cliff fuels Novartis’ $1.5bn swoop for London biotech - M&S to face shareholder grilling over cyber attack recovery - Burnham told to launch £100bn tax reform package - London Lions in EuroLeague franchise bid – but may have to quit Super League Basketball - ‘In fine fettle’: Pall Mall’s RAC waiting list grows as posh club toasts profit boost
Khamenei funeral signals Iran’s defiance and new regional order
The funeral of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was more than a national farewell. The sea of mourners in Tehran sent a message to the United States and Israel that their attempt to break the Islamic Republic had failed. Rather than looking weakened by the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran presented itself as defiant, unified and determined to shape what comes next. That defiance and ability to survive now underpins Iran’s negotiating strategy, regional officials, diplomats and analysts say, depicting the funeral as the moment Tehran sought to transform endurance into leverage. The war, they say, has underlined Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and enabled it to demand that any deal on its nuclear programme begins with recognition that its control over the vital oil chokepoint is a reality that must be accepted. A 60-day ceasefire was intended by Washington to revive diplomacy on stopping Iran developing a nuclear arsenal, but has instead opened a different contest. In this contest, Iran’s location rather than its uranium is its most powerful asset, with Tehran seeking to convert wartime gains into permanent strategic advantage by securing acceptance of its dominant position around the strait. The 60-day clock towards a final deal following the ceasefire agreement and the accompanying memorandum of understanding is yet to start. In that vacuum, Iran is setting the pace. Although huge revenues might be earned from charging fees for vessels using the strait, Tehran sees Hormuz less as an economic asset than as a source of political legitimacy, said Alex Vatanka, of the US-based Middle East Institute. “The symbolic part is more important for the Iranians than revenues,” Mr Vatanka said. “They want some kind of symbolic acceptance that the Strait is Iran’s. It’s about accepting Iran as the sovereign power over the Strait.” Citing a Persian saying, Mr Vatanka added: “Why give away a diamond for a lollipop?” According to Tehran’s calculation, Hormuz is the diamond. Sanctions relief and frozen assets are the lollipop. Iran’s leadership has echoed this position. “The Strait of Hormuz is our greatest power tool; we must properly protect this divine blessing,” said parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, adding that Iran would “under no circumstances relinquish its rights” there. Iran is deliberately slowing negotiations to lock in what it sees as the war’s dividends before returning to the nuclear question, regional sources and diplomats say. For Tehran — which denies seeking a nuclear bomb — uranium can wait, but consolidating its position on Hormuz cannot, said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat with expertise on Iran. “Iran is perfectly happy to play for time and just drag negotiations out,” Mr Eyre said. “It wants control of Hormuz and is holding talks to institutionalise that control.” That could mean embedding its influence through transit arrangements, co-ordination mechanisms or charges for services along the corridor that carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, while Gulf states wait to see whether Washington can, or is able to, reverse the new reality. Tehran believes US president Donald Trump — constrained by domestic politics and wary of another confrontation before midterm elections to Congress in November — is under more pressure to secure a deal than Iran is to make concessions. “The Iranians know that president Trump wants to get out; he wants to move on,” Mr Eyre said. “They know they can squeeze him because time is on their side.” Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, said Washington’s military campaign had failed to break Iran’s leverage, leaving US diplomacy with a flawed ceasefire whose implementation has become a battleground in its own right. Tehran, he said, has little reason to engage seriously on its nuclear programme until it is confident the new reality around Hormuz has been accepted and meaningful progress made on unlocking billions of dollars in frozen assets held abroad. “The 60-day clock was always a fantasy,” Mr Miller said. “The Iranians are not going to move to the nuclear file until they’re relatively confident they’ve achieved this new status quo. They want to make sure that Trump understands, and that the world understands, that there’s no going back to February 27.” Iran is exploiting what Mr Miller calls the key reality of the post-war order — neither US military power nor the threat of a US naval blockade fundamentally altered its position on the Strait of Hormuz. “They’re not going to give it up,” he said. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Centre, said that, by halting the war without resolving the issues that caused it, Washington may have helped elevate Hormuz from being a pressure point into a lasting source of leverage for Tehran. Gulf officials worry that by showing Iran’s ability to shape events around the strait, the war created an advantage that Tehran will be reluctant to surrender even in exchange for sanctions relief or progress on the nuclear file. “They are twisting the arms of the Americans and everybody,” Al Ketbi said. “Now that they have found this Hormuz treasure, they will not leave it.” Washington is likely to have to accept the reopening of the strait under conditions largely dictated by Tehran, analysts say. “No one’s going to win, but Iran will lose less than the United States will,” Mr Eyre said.
Futures Rise As Tech Rebounds In Post-Holiday Catch Up
Futures Rise As Tech Rebounds In Post-Holiday Catch Up US equity futures point to a firmer cash open as traders return from the long weekend, but the bigger question is whether investors continue to rotate out of the crowded AI trade and into the broader market. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 contract rise 1.1% as most Mag 7 names are in the green. In premarket trading, chip/memory stocks rebound from last week's rout which follows the an 18% plunge in the GS High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) basket over the last two sessions, on track for 2nd worst month in >15 years. This follows an APAC session on Monday which took a more downbeat view of the tech sector; South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. The MSCI APAC index fell as much as 0.7% before returning to the unchanged mark. The Stoxx 600 has just slipped into negative territory, down 0.1%, after hitting another record high earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. Treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Oil prices fell as flows through the Strait of Hormuz persisted and OPEC+ signaled higher supplies, with Brent trading about 0.4% lower at $71.82 a barrel. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin is down 0.1%. Today's US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Amazon +0.7%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.3%, Microsoft is unchanged, Apple -0.6%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise ahead of Samsung’s June quarter earnings and updates to SK Hynix Inc.’s massive ADR listing. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) inch about 1% higher after a federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the company a reprieve from a law that caused all of its lobbyists to drop it as a client. Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.4% after Bernstein downgraded the software company to market perform, citing caution about the company’s earnings prospects. JB Hunt (JBHT) slips 1% after Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the freight carrier to underweight, saying the stock’s valuation is “unjustifiable” after a rally. Kosmos Energy (KOS) rises 4% after the firm provided updated guidance with second-quarter production at its Jubilee oil field in Ghana reaching about 72,000 barrels of oil per day. Opus Genetics (IRD) rises 2% after saying it reached alignment with the FDA on the design of its Phase 3 trial evaluating OPGx-LCA5 for LCA5-associated inherited retinal disease. Seer (SEER) climbs 33% after CEO Omid Farokhzad offered to buy the a biotechnology company. Zim Integrated’s US shares (ZIM) are down 6% after Ynet reported Sunday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a proposed sale was “not on the agenda,” without clarifying how it got the information. This week presents key tests for tech leadership. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, likely prompting index-related repositioning. That same day, Samsung’s preliminary earnings are due. Then on Friday comes SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing, which could be the biggest-ever first-time share sale by a foreign company. The events will take on added significance in a week that features a thin data calendar, while the US earnings season is yet to kick into gear. Global stocks have gone through a stretch of uneven trading as investors question whether the past quarter’s AI-driven rally has run too far and whether vast capital outlays are guaranteed to produce strong returns. The macro calendar picks up on Wednesday with minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They take on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economics’ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the commitee’s focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. Further detail about Fed-think will likely guide equity positioning into the upcoming earnings season. BNY strategist Geoffrey Yu says the question is whether the Fed can stay patient without seeing inflation risks reemerge. Separately, SpaceX is due to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, an inclusion that may trigger some index-related repositioning. “Speculative positioning in semiconductors and other hot technology themes is likely to continue being reduced,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “The key question will be whether this triggers a rotation into lagging sectors or a broader correction.” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson thinks the market broadening story continues to gain momentum as chips underperform; he believes US stocks will struggle to reach new highs as investors rotate out of some of this year’s biggest tech trades. Wilson says momentum is fading in semiconductor stocks as investors shift toward laggards, including AI hyperscalers. The steep fall in oil has helped to stabilize rates, which is another driver of the rotation to lagging areas of the market, he adds. He favors AI hyperscalers, consumer discretionary goods, transports, and biotech. For Kokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of research at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, the market is increasingly learning to live with short-term volatility. “I wonder whether the market is becoming a bit more anti-fragile, in the sense of adapting the news flow and seeing through the noise and focusing on the fundamentals, especially with the whole AI boom and the ecosystem around it,” he said. In a week with few major data releases, the key variable for Treasuries would be oil prices, said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Specifically, whether the recent downward trend remains in place and whether the newsflow around energy markets continues to stabilize,” Simon said. “Central bank communication could also move markets, although in the absence of significant new developments we would not expect a major shift in tone.” Defense is also back on traders’ radar ahead of the two-day NATO summit starting in Turkey tomorrow. Trump meets Ukraine’s Zelenskyy there on Wednesday. European shares slip following Friday’s record close. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 651.15 as investors digest a slate of M&A news, with EasyJet jumping after agreeing to a takeover offer from Castlelake. ITV rose after agreeing to sell an arm to Sky, while Thales has said it wants to buy Exail. Media stocks are outperforming, followed by autos. Utilities and construction sectors are the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: EasyJet shares jump as much as 11% after the budget airline accepted a takeover offer from US private equity firm Castlelake at 690p a share. Carlsberg shares gain as much as 3.7% after the Danish brewer and Sapporo agreed to form a strategic joint venture. DWS and Amundi shares rise to record highs after Morgan Stanley and Citi raise their price targets on the asset management firms. Schott Pharma jumps as much as 11% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing accelerating growth for the German pharma packaging company in 3Q and 4Q, accompanied by improving margins. Nemetschek shares rise as much as 5.7% after Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of the software company with a buy recommendation. ITV shares rise as much as 2.4% after the company agreed to sell its Media and Entertainment arm to Sky. JCDecaux shares rise as much as 3.8% as Oddo BHF (outperform) says it expects the outdoor advertising company’s second-quarter results to turn out better than expected due to the end of the conflict in the Middle East. OC Oerlikon gains as much as 9.5% as Oddo BHF upgrades the Swiss industrial technology company to outperform from neutral on increased estimates for FY26 that exceed the company’s own guidance. Exail shares rise as much as 4.2% after Thales said it intends to make a tender offer for the French maker of mine-destroying sea drones following its agreement to buy the Gorgé family’s 35.51% stake. BE Semiconductor shares slip as much as 7.7% on Monday after South Korea news outlet ZDNet reported that chipmakers may further delay the full adoption of an advanced chip packaging technology. Close Brothers Group declined as much as 9.3%, after JPMorgan downgraded to sector perform from outperform, saying that the UK motor finance issue has become increasingly uncertain. Stocks in Asia fluctuated, with Samsung Electronics to come under scrutiny when the chipmaker releases earnings on Tuesday after a 165% year-to-date rally. The report will be followed days later by SK Hynix Inc.’s $28 billion US listing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between narrow gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics Co.’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. “The market is in a holding pattern ahead of Samsung’s preliminary results, which is the centerpiece of what’s shaping up to be a semiconductor super week,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group. If the results disappoint, “the conversation shifts to whether this is a cyclical pause or the beginning of something more structural.” Bucking the trend, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rose for a third day, up more than 1%. Tencent Holdings was the top contributor, after JPMorgan said it expects its stock to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Japan’s Topix index rose to another all-time high, supported by defense stocks on signs of government policy tailwinds. In South Korea, the government is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from the semiconductor industry to finance long-term economic growth, according to a senior official. Investors are also turning their attention to SK Hynix Inc.’s listing of $29 billion American depositary receipts later this week. Here Are the Most Notable Movers Tencent shares rise after JPMorgan said it expects the company’s stock price to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Chinese brokerage stocks rise on earnings optimism. Shares of Sanrio, owner of the Hello Kitty brand, climbed 6.2% after an analyst report touted an increase in social media followers of its intellectual property. Shares of Kanzhun rise as much as 4.8% after JPMorgan initiates coverage on its H-share with an overweight rating, saying AI will be a major driver in increasing the online recruitment company’s long-term average revenue per use. Shenzhen Xunce Technology shares rise as much as 15% in Hong Kong after the company said it entered into a MOU on strategic cooperation with Gechuang Dongzhi (Shenzhen) Technology to expand data tokenization capabilities into industrial smart manufacturing. Shanghai Biren Technology shares fall as much as 9.9% to the lowest since May 19 after the company raised HK$7.07 billion ($901 million) in gross proceeds by placing 153 million new H shares at HK$46.20 each. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. The yen lost ground against all major currencies as traders tested the resolve of Japanese authorities to intervene. Goldman Sachs joined the growing ranks of investors and strategists who are increasingly bearish on the yen, which is already trading around its lowest levels since 1986. The Wall Street bank revised its 12-month forecast to 165 from 155, reflecting fiscal pressures in Japan, higher-for-longer Treasury yields and only gradual rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman noted. In rates, treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Treasury futures hold small gains accumulated during Asia session and London morning, led by front-end and belly tenors as oil prices remain near three-month lows and stock futures advance. US intermediate yields are 3bp-4bp richer on the day, steepening 5s30s spread by 2.5bp; 10-year, around 2bp richer near 4.46%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 2.5bp respectively. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few names already. Dealer forecasts for this month are around $100 billion, with around $25 billion lined up for this week. This week’s Treasury auctions start Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. US session includes June ISM services gauge and scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. In commodities, WTI oil is holding below $69 a barrel after seven OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to increase their collective production quotas by a modest 188,000 barrels a day for next month, adding to the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. Shipping through a US-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin slides back under $62000 on news Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 3,588 in the past week. US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am. Bloomberg Economics expects the ISM services index to have remained in expansionary territory, but to have softened after jumping to 54.5 in May. A modest decline in orders growth likely led to a deceleration in production activity. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Shipping along a US-protected corridor near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz recovered after some vessels earlier performed unexplained U-turns and detours. OPEC+ backed another modest rise in quotas for next month. BBG Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate, according to an FT data analysis showing that Kyiv’s intensified drone campaign is spurring Russia’s worst fuel crisis in decades. FT Ukraine’s capital Kyiv came under a deadly Russian attack early Monday morning, on the eve of a critical NATO summit in Turkey that US President Donald Trump plans to attend. CNN World powers are pouring billions into AI, drones, hypersonic missiles and space technologies in a race to dominate the battlefields of the future. BBG A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone. WSJ South Korea is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from its chip industry to finance long-term economic growth. BBG Chinese tech giants including Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent have all announced plans to disable AI persona features as Beijing tightens its regulatory framework on the rapidly advancing AI industry. Nikkei The yen should be about 20% stronger at around 130 per dollar, former Japan currency chief Tatsuo Yamasaki said. BBG Large investors are committing billions of dollars to private credit funds as big institutions seek to profit from an exodus of smaller retail clients. North American direct lending funds that seek to attract institutional clients raised at least $16bn in the second quarter. FT Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY at 165.00 in a year's time, raising its forecast from 155.00, citing Japan's interest rate differentials with the US A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks initially started the session with broad gains but reversed as the session continued, with a busy week ahead, which includes Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings and SK Hynix's US listing. ASX 200 managed to limit its downside, and only posted modest losses, as upside in Energy and Health Care broadly offset the downside seen in Consumer Staples and Mining names. Further on the mining topic, Genesis Minerals made a AUD 5.6bln bid for Vault Minerals, hijacking a deal previously made with Regis Resources. Nikkei 225 was softer as it continued to pull back from its ATH of 72,832. Kioxia was one of the big underperformers, after the Co. began shipping sample next-gen semiconductor products. KOSPI was under significant pressure, despite initially printing gains of as much as 2.9%, with Samsung set to report Q2 figures on Tuesday; operating profit expected to print at KRW 86tln. However, a miss would be detrimental to tech valuations, since doubts have crept in over the scale and durability of AI demand and capex. Shanghai Comp. traded either side of the unchanged mark while the Hang Seng posted decent gains. Alibaba found some comfort after a US federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the Co. a reprieve from a lobbying ban tied to the Pentagon's curbs on Chinese companies. Top Asian News Apple (AAPL) supplier Luxshare (002475 CH) reportedly plans pricing its Hong Kong listing at the top end, Bloomberg reported. SK Hynix (000660 KS) is to raise KRW 43tln in ADR listing. Meituan's (3690 HK) LongCat-2.0 has been officially open-sourced, and domestic chip manufacturers are collectively adapting to it, Chinese press reported. Honda's (7267 JT) China unit reported June vehicles sales of 32.5k units, -44.5% Y/Y. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have traded on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, with a lack of pertinent catalysts driving the action. European sectors are mixed but with a positive bias. Leading the table is Media, helped by ITV (+1%), Travel and Leisure is helped by easyJet (+10%), while European tech underperforms after modest losses in APAC (ASML -1.5%, STMicroelectronics -1.5%). For easyJet, the co. agreed in principle to Castlelake’s fifth takeover bid, at GBP 6.90/shr in cash. Stateside, futures play catch-up after US stocks were closed on Friday for US Independence Day. NQ +1% outperforms after broad tech gains on Friday, ES +0.4%, and RTY +0.2% also green. Top European News UK Defence Minister Jarvis told POLITICO he wants Burnham’s administration to lay out the full pathway to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense at the next spending review, due spring 2027. France is said to have softened its stance of possible sale of SAMP/T air defence system (HO FP) to Turkey, according to sources. CVC's (CVC NA) sale of marina group D-Marin is said to be valued at EUR 1-1.5bln, FT reported, citing sources FX Lack of macro catalysts with geopolitical news light as US-Iran negotiations pause for the former Supreme Leader’s funeral processions. The Buck today is seemingly attracting carry demand as we near summer trade, where ING notes G7 FX volatility is close to the lower end of long-term ranges. DXY currently trades near highs, within a 100.82 to 101.13 range. JPY is the clear underperformer, as it attempts to return to recent lows against most peers. Specifically, USD/JPY +0.5% on the day as the Buck outperforms against low yielders and after unconvincing potential intervention over the past week. USD/JPY sees its first resistance at 162.50 to the upside; thereafter, the next significant level is the 1st July high of 162.84. Antipodeans are mixed, Aussie outperforms as it attracts carry demand as mentioned above, while Kiwi is one of the G10 laggards as hawkish bets unwind ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement on Wednesday. Ahead of the meeting, the NZIER Shadow Board recommended that the RBNZ hold the OCR at 2.25%, against the market consensus of a 25bp hike to 2.50%. AUD/NZD +0.4% and approaches 1.2200. South Korean Finance Minister said the BoK is to closely monitor the impact and movements of KRW's 24-hour trade. Fixed Income Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, taking leads from lower energy prices. Price action has been fairly lacklustre this morning, with the European session ultimately seeing sideways action. USTs (+4 ticks) are firmer this morning and hold within a 109-17 to 109-24 range; currently holding towards the upper end of the day’s range. US-specific newsflow has been lacking this morning, but will likely pick up in the form of US Final PMIs and then the more closely watched ISM Services thereafter. On that front, the headline is expected to pare to 54.0 (prev. 54.5), prices paid at 69.0 (prev. 71.3), and new orders at 57.0 (prev. 57.3). Bunds (+8 ticks) and Gilts (+5 ticks) both trade with mild gains, but with action ultimately non-committal. Both benchmarks are off their best levels and trading towards the mid-point of their respective 126.59-126.82 and 88.81-89.12 ranges. For Europe specifically, the EZ Sentix Investor Confidence topped expectations (-3.1 vs exp. -14.5), though not all too surprising given the recently signed US-Iran MoU. Sentix stated that “The slump in sentiment caused by the Iran conflict is slowly being overcome. The German government's latest reform efforts are having an impact”. On the data front, EZ PPI Y/Y printed a touch above the expected, as did Retail Sales – no move was seen on the data. BoJ announces its outright bond purchase operation in-line with its plan. Offers to buy JPY 100bln of Commodities WTI Aug and Brent Sep futures are ultimately on a softer footing following choppy APAC and European morning trade. Macro catalysts remain quiet, further compounded by a temporary lull in geopolitical headlines, driving a steady unwinding of the war premium that supported prices throughout H1 2026. WTI resides towards the lower end of a USD 67.82-69.21/bbl range, while Brent sits at the bottom end of a USD 71.02-72.45/bbl parameter. Elsewhere, metals are mixed with precious metals softer after last week seeing its first weekly gain since May, supported by fading Fed rate hike expectations following the soft US jobs data, and lower energy prices. Meanwhile, overnight, it was reported that Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to make the city a gold trading hub, SCMP reports, citing sources. SCMP earlier reported that Hong Kong is to reportedly launch a gold clearing and settlement system. Price action this morning saw the yellow metal find resistance around the USD 4,200/oz mark, currently residing in a USD 4,144-4,202/oz range, with US traders set to return from their long weekend, and with ISM Services PMI ahead. In terms of base metals, copper futures are rising for a third consecutive session in a USD 13,361.53- 13,464.00/t range, whilst aluminium extends a rebound from a four-month low, supported by fading Fed rate hike bets after Fed Chair Warsh last week said price risks were easing. Goldman Sachs lowered its LME aluminium price forecast to USD 2,950/t for Q4 2026 and lowered its 2027 average forecast to USD 2,700/t. Goldman Sachs cuts its 2026 aluminium supply deficit forecast to 100k tonnes and raises its 2027 supply surplus forecast to about 1.5mln. Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack. UK ministers are reconsidering a ban on crop-based biofuels for aviation following a lobbying tour of the US Corn Belt by government officials, the FT reported. A power outage has been reported at Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Detroit refinery, causing controlled gas burning, according to local media. Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to the city into a gold trading hub, SCMP reported citing sources. South Korean prosecutors say refiners colluded to hike prices despite ample oil reserves, Yonhap reported. A fleet of 10 Japan-related ships have reportedly left the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data shows. Israel's energy minister said Israel is launching a new competitive process to search for more natural gas in the country's economic waters. Central Banks New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommends that the RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.25%. PBoC injected CNY 7bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8066 vs exp. 6.7850 (prev. 6.8047). Swiss Total Sight Deposits (w/e Jul 3) 479.2bln (prev. 474.4bln W/W), Domestic 440.9bln (prev. 440.6bln W/W). Geopolitics: Ukraine Ukraine's military said it has struck its oil refineries in Russia's Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions. EU's von der Leyen said EU is working to seal the 21st Russian sanctions package in the next days. Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack. Russian Defense Ministry said 519 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the regions overnight. A Ukrainian official said the death toll in Kyiv has risen to 9 after the recent Russian attacks. US President Trump is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. Kyiv Mayor said the city is under a Russian missile attack with one residence badly damaged. A Russian official said the Ukrainian attack cuts the electricity to Sevastopol in Crimea, AFP reported. Several Russian ballistic missiles have struck Kyiv, with explosions being heard, according to an FT reporter. Geopolitics: Iran Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, sources tell Pakistani newspaper Dawn, according to Fox. Negotiations are expected to focus on Iran's nuclear programme, frozen Iranian assets, the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire. Israeli Defence Minister Katz said any Iranian leader who tries again to promote plans to destroy Israel will be thwarted; Israel is prepared to defend itself again, with its own forces, at any time and against every threat. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said a ceasefire in Gaza will be part of the second phase of the agreement with the US. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the US memorandum is 'difficult but possible' to enforce, Al Jazeera reported. The Israeli occupation army carries out a bombing operation in the town of Houla in southern Lebanon. Israeli Army Chief of Staff Zamir said that the Israeli army will continue its operations to eliminate threats from Lebanese soil. Israeli airstrikes hit multiple towns in southern Lebanon. US Event Calendar 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.3, prior 51.3 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52.2 10:00 am: United States Jun ISM Services Index, est. 54, prior 54.5 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel, Wunsch, Riksbank’s Seim in Rome DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I hope your weekend was good. Mine was certainly a big WOW! 8.5 months after back fusion surgery I won both the scratch and handicap 2-day over 50s club championship. I shot 72 and 71 (one over gross). It took Tiger Woods two years after the same fusion surgery to win The Masters so I'm seeing this as a greater achievement. My twins were very impressed with the two huge cups I brought home and have earmarked winning the same event. They qualify in 2068! I wonder if England will have won the football World Cup again by then. I did get up to watch the second half which has just finished as I type this. A crazy win against Mexico. To all the readers in Norway, see you on Saturday! Moving on, the week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light. In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after scepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Mr Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines. In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where our economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the data flow includes labour cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where our economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labour market report (Friday). In Asia, it's all eyes on the KOSPI at the moment after a pretty wild time of late. After being up 3% early in the session, it's now -1.86% as I type with the Nikkei -1.18% lower. The Shanghai Comp is -0.35% with the ASX -0.22%. However, the Hang Seng is +1.16%. S&P (+0.23%) and Nasdaq (+0.76%) futures are up but are roughly around Friday's levels when the US was on holiday. Recapping last week now and markets saw a decent risk-on move, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since early May, with a +1.76% advance. That came amidst several dovish headlines, which meant investors priced out the chance of an imminent rate cut. For instance, Fed Chair Warsh said that inflation risks had come down at the Sintra Forum on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, the US jobs report showed payrolls up +57k, which was weaker than expected (even if unemployment was a tenth lower than expected). So collectively, that meant market pricing for a July hike fell from a 30% chance to 22% over the course of the week. And that dovish repricing was clear further out the curve, as the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting also came down slightly from 32bps to 30bps. Over in Europe there was a similar trend, with the STOXX 600 up +2.66% (+0.68% Friday) to a new record. That came as markets grew more doubtful about another ECB rate hike this year, with the latest flash CPI print also surprising on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.8% in June, and core CPI also falling to +2.4%. So markets also priced out the chance of another ECB rate hike by December, which fell from a 96% to an 83% chance over the week. But even though equities did quite well on the whole, there were still clear pockets of weakness, most notably in the chip sector. Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index fell -4.37%, losing ground for a second week running. Interestingly as well, the dovish repricing failed to prevent a move up in longer-dated yields, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +11.5bps last week to 4.48%, whilst the 10yr German yield rose +8.4bps to 2.93%. Finally, oil prices were comparatively steady last week, and Brent crude saw little movement with a +0.18% gain (+0.45% Friday), leaving it at $72.12/bbl. Otherwise, credit spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-1bps) and HY (-15bps) spreads both coming down. It was a similar story in Europe too, where Euro IG (-1bps) and HY (-2bps) spreads also tightened. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:28
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Funeral Updates: Millions mourn Khamenei as Iran tensions simmer; Trump says ‘no shots’ during funeral
Millions of Iranians have gathered for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed along with four family members in a US-Israeli air strike earlier this year, as regional tensions remain high despite fragile diplomatic signals. Mourners waving red flags, a symbol of revenge, filled Tehran’s streets, chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”, while US President Donald Trump said both sides had agreed to hold fire during the funeral proceedings. Funeral draws massive crowds amid anger: The two-day public farewell ceremony for Khamenei concluded with vast crowds expected to join a funeral procession in Tehran. State imagery showed mourners packing major thoroughfares, many carrying red banners signifying a call for retaliation. The killing of Khamenei has sharply escalated anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment across Iran. Leaders issue warnings: Even as Washington signalled restraint, Israel’s military leadership struck a harder tone. Addressing troops in southern Lebanon, Israel’s army chief warned of a “rapid attack” if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, underscoring the volatility along Israel’s northern border. Here are the latest developments: - Millions attended funeral prayers in Tehran for Khamenei and the family members killed alongside him in the February 28 strike. - Trump said talks with Iran would resume once the funeral proceedings conclude. - Iranian authorities have prepared for possible mass-casualty incidents during the processions. - Funeral ceremonies are set to continue in Iraq before Khamenei’s final burial in Mashhad. - Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran’s new Supreme Leader in March, has not appeared in public, reportedly for security reasons. Follow The Indian Express Global Desk live coverage for the latest updates from West Asia, the diplomatic corridors of Europe, and the evolving legal battles in Washington. Stay updated with the latest - Click here to follow us on Instagram
Jaishankar meets Qatar PM, lauds mediation efforts as US, Iran return to negotiating table
NEW DELHI: External affairs minister S Jaishankar on Monday praised Qatar's proactive mediation efforts in facilitating talks between the United States and Iran as the two countries resumed negotiations after months of military confrontation and cross-border strikes. The remarks came as international attention turned to Qatar's behind-the-scenes diplomatic role in helping revive the dialogue. According to a Financial Times report, when the fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared close to unravelling earlier this year, it was Qatar's quiet and sustained shuttle diplomacy, rather than Pakistan's hoped-for role, that helped steer the negotiations back towards the table. The report said Doha combined discretion, access and persistent engagement to emerge as the key mediator, while the talks eventually returned to the traditional venue of neutral Switzerland. During his visit, Jaishankar met Qatari prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and "reviewed the entire spectrum of bilateral relations with a focus on energy, trade, investments and people to people ties. They also discussed regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest". Jaishankar's Gulf visit was in the backdrop of fast-evolving political dynamics in West Asia following the signing of an agreement aimed at ending the US-Iran conflict, with the resumption of the talks to keep the diplomatic process on track and resolve long standing disputes between Washington and Tehran. The technical talks are expected to take place on July 11, although a final decision on the venue has yet to be made. The discussions are also expected to address regional security issues, including efforts to preserve stability in the Strait of Hormuz. The July 11 meeting is intended to advance the framework established under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed two weeks ago, which gave both sides 60 days to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and related issues.
Iran, Qatar resume maritime trade after 5-month hiatus
Iran and Qatar have resumed their maritime trade following roughly five months of suspension, Iran’s commercial attaché in Doha said on Sunday, Anadolu reports. Maritime shipping between Iran’s Dayyer Port and Qatar’s Al Ruwais Port resumed following coordination between the Iranian Embassy in Doha and Qatari authorities, Abbas Abdolkhani added in statements carried by Iran’s state news agency IRNA. Tensions have escalated in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in February. Tehran retaliated with strikes on Israel and other regional countries hosting US assets, including Qatar. The fighting stopped on April 8 when Pakistan secured a ceasefire, and an initial memorandum was signed in June. Mediators, including Qatar, continue talks for a final deal. READ: Qatar says frozen Iranian funds remain withheld as US-Iran Talks Continue
3 of Khamenei’s sons attend his Tehran funeral, but not his successor Mojtaba
The Times of Israel is liveblogging Sunday’s events as they unfold. Cargo ship under attack southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah, maritime agency says The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations says it received a report of an incident 30 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah, where a cargo vessel triggered a distress alert stating it was under attack by unknown armed assailants. Authorities were investigating, and vessels were advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, the agency says. Government approves PM’s appointment of Ofir Levy as deputy head of National Security Council The government approves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s appointment of Ofir Levy as deputy head of the National Security Council, the Prime Minister’s Office announces. Levy will replace Gil Reich, who has completed his tenure, following a recommendation by recently appointed National Security Council chief Shmuel Ben Ezra. Reich was also serving as acting national security adviser after Tzachi Hanegbi was removed from the role in October, amid reported disagreements with the premier over Israel’s policies during the war against Hamas in Gaza. Levy previously held roles as head of doctrine for the Armored Corps, commander of the 679th Reserve Brigade, and deputy commander of the 210th Golan Heights Regional Division, and served as a border defense consultant for Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, the PMO adds. His appointment to the key role in Israeli security policy is for a five-year term and may be extended for additional periods, provided that the total duration of the appointment does not exceed ten years, according to the PMO. 2 Hamas operatives ‘advancing attacks’ on troops killed in Gaza strikes last week, IDF says Two Hamas operatives who were advancing attacks on troops in Gaza were killed in strikes last week, the military announces. The strikes killed Muhammad Najib Ashour, a platoon commander in Hamas’s Nukhba Force, and Tamer Saeed Abu Nakhal, a commander of a cell in Hamas’s military wing, according to the IDF. “The two terrorists, who were involved in advancing attacks against IDF troops, posed a threat to the troops and were subsequently eliminated in precise strikes,” the military says. No further details on the strikes, including when and where in the Strip they were carried out, are provided by the IDF. צה"ל חיסל שני מחבלים שקידמו מתווי טרור נגד כוחותינו ברצועת עזה בשתי תקיפות ברצועת עזה בשבוע שעבר, צה"ל חיסל את המחבל מוחמד נגיב עאשור, מפקד מחלקת נוח'בה מהזרוע הצבאית של ארגון הטרור חמאס, ואת המחבל תאמר סעיד אבו נחל, ראש חולייה מהזרוע הצבאית של ארגון הטרור חמאס. שני המחבלים היו… pic.twitter.com/enlICvEddh — צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) July 5, 2026 Houthis killed 14 Yemeni government troops in attack south of Hodeidah, official says Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels killed 14 troops in an attack south of the port city of Hodeidah, a military official aligned with the country’s internationally-recognized government says. The official says pro-government forces had repelled the attack in Hays district, south of Hodeidah, in “clashes lasting for several hours at dawn on Saturday.” He adds “fighting resulted in dead and wounded among (Houthi) ranks,” without specifying the number killed in the opposing force. The Houthis have been at war with the government since 2015 in a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and triggered a major humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The rebels control Yemen’s capital Sanaa and much of the north, including Hodeidah on Yemen’s western Red Sea coast, while the internationally recognized government holds much of the south. The fighting between the two sides has largely been frozen since a UN-negotiated truce in 2022. But on Friday the Houthis threatened airports and vital assets belonging to Saudi Arabia, a key backer of Yemen’s Aden-based government. The rebel group, part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States, accused the kingdom of trying to stop an Iranian plane from landing. After 7-day pause, Qatar says all maritime activities to resume immediately Qatar says that maritime activities will resume with immediate effect, according to a Transport Ministry statement posted on X. This reverses a June 29 advisory that had urged all vessels to suspend sailing and maritime activities until further notice. Qatar did not provide a reason behind the original measure, but it came a day after it said one of its nationals had been killed after sustaining injuries from shrapnel due to “military operations in the region,” following the disappearance of his vessel. Mojtaba Khamenei still absent on day 2 of father’s funeral in Tehran Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appears not to be in attendance on the second day of his father’s funeral in Tehran. Three of Ali Khamenei’s sons — Masoud, Meysam and Mostafa — who hadn’t been seen since the war, are present at the mass prayer event. Khamenei has not been seen in public since he was seriously injured — and his father, wife, and son were killed — in the opening strikes of the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran on February 28. According to a New York Times report yesterday, Mojtaba Khamenei was absent from a memorial for his wife in Tehran on Wednesday. He seeks to attend his father’s burial on Thursday in Mashhad and perform funeral rites, but has so far been refused due to concerns he could be targeted by Israel, the Times said, citing two unnamed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members and a person involved with planning the multi-day funeral. Agencies contributed to this report. Settlers said to steal cash from Palestinian restaurant near Nablus, then set it ablaze The Palestinian news agency Wafa reports that settlers broke into a restaurant near Nablus overnight and stole cash before setting it on fire, completely destroying it. The restaurant’s owner, who also serves as the head of the Lubban ash-Sharqiya village council, Yaqub Oweis, tells Wafa that the damage is estimated at a cost of around NIS 1 million (approximately $330,000). مليشيات المستوطنين هاجمت فجر اليوم مقهى أمام جامعة الزيتونة في منطقة وادي الشاعر ضمن أراضي قرية اللبن الشرقية جنوب نابلس pic.twitter.com/hWk722saSs — Ultra Palestine – الترا فلسطين (@palestineultra) July 5, 2026 Channel 12 news office door smashed in attack by masked assailant in Tel Aviv The glass door to the offices of Channel 12 news in Tel Aviv has been smashed in an overnight attack. According to the broadcaster, security camera footage shows a masked suspect approaching the building holding a brick, before throwing it at the doors. The attack comes amid a sharp uptick in incitement against journalists. Reports say police have opened an investigation into the attack, which comes a month after graffiti inciting violence was daubed near the office. הדלת בכניסה לחדשות 12 בתל אביב נופצה, כמה שבועות אחרי שרוססו שם כתובות גרפיטי מאיימות pic.twitter.com/rGjKI57pba — לירי בורק שביט (@lirishavit) July 5, 2026 תיעוד: אלמוני רעול פנים מנפץ את דלת הכניסה לאולפני חדשות 12, הלילה בת"א. במשטרה פתחו בחקירה pic.twitter.com/VsHXPNMGR4 — Josh Breiner (@JoshBreiner) July 5, 2026 Fireworks spark brief blaze on Brooklyn Bridge; no injuries reported Firefighters put out a blaze after the Brooklyn Bridge briefly caught fire during a firework display to mark the 250th anniversary of American independence. There are no reports of injuries. Fire breaks out on Brooklyn Bridge following fireworks display https://t.co/sXqV7DqZkM pic.twitter.com/wv7klvc9Z7 — New York Post (@nypost) July 5, 2026 Minister confirms Israel deployed Iron Dome battery to UAE during war Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirms that Israel deployed an Iron Dome battery to the United Arab Emirates early in the war with Iran. “They understood that the ballistic missiles were one of the biggest challenges,” she tells Army Radio. While Regev is the first Israeli official to publicly state that the missile defense system was sent to the UAE, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed the move in May. During the US-Israel war on Iran, Tehran launched sustained attacks on the UAE, firing some 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones, according to the Emirati defense ministry, making it the most targeted country in the region, including Israel. In April, Axios first reported that Israel had deployed the battery along with troops to operate it. The war with Iran has been draining for all of us in Israel. But when I heard about a high casualty incident – ballistic missile impacts in Arad and Dimona that left nearly 200 people wounded – I drank a cup of coffee, packed a bag, and headed south. There, I spoke with Shilgit, the head of an after-school program for underprivileged youth. Standing outside her destroyed center, Shilgit said it was a miracle that no children were hurt and spoke about the community coming together in the hours since. As a Times of Israel reporter, I’m committed to telling stories of resilience like Shilgit’s. But my colleagues and I can't do this alone. If you value work like this, please consider joining our reader support group, The Times of Israel Community. Your financial support is essential to keep real human reporting like this going. — Stav Levaton, military reporter We’re really pleased that you’ve read X Times of Israel articles in the past month. That’s why we started the Times of Israel - to provide discerning readers like you with must-read coverage of Israel and the Jewish world. So now we have a request. Unlike other news outlets, we haven’t put up a paywall. But as the journalism we do is costly, we invite readers for whom The Times of Israel has become important to help support our work by joining The Times of Israel Community. For as little as $6 a month you can help support our quality journalism while enjoying The Times of Israel AD-FREE, as well as accessing exclusive content available only to Times of Israel Community members. Thank you, David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel
The U.S. Just Pulled Its B-52 Bombers Out of Britain as It Quietly Looks for an Iran Off-Ramp
Summary and Key Points – World News Update – The United States and Iran spent this week testing whether a shaky ceasefire can hold, and Washington sent an unusually concrete signal: it began pulling its heavy bombers out of Britain and back toward home. As negotiators meet in Doha under Qatari and Pakistani mediation, the movement of American aircraft out of RAF Fairford has become a barometer of how seriously the two sides are looking for an off-ramp. What the U.S. Air Force does with the bombers still in Britain may say more about where the talks are heading than any official statement has. Iran War Update All six B-52 Stratofortress bombers have left their stations at RAF Fairfield in the UK, presumably to return to the mainland United States. The bombers were deployed to Fairfield to participate in Operation Epic Fury against Iran. However, as diplomatic talks continue, as shaky as they may be, the U.S. is slowly starting to draw down its forces. The current state of diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran is murky, as all parties continue to launch small strikes against each other. The memorandum of understanding (MOU), which was supposed to lay the groundwork for a future peace settlement, seems to have failed, but the U.S. nevertheless continues to draw down its forces as it quietly looks for an off-ramp. U.S. Bombers Going Home The departing B-52Hs were caught on camera by local aviation photographers, who observed the bombers departing in two waves of three. The last aircraft was spotted leaving on July 1st, marking the end of their presence in the UK and ending their involvement in operations against Iran. The bombers initially arrived on March 8 and maintained a high operational tempo throughout the month, mainly utilizing JASSM stealthy cruise missiles. According to CENTCOM, the U.S. struck around 13,000 targets in Iran, but it is not clear how many of these were from the B-52s stationed at Fairfield. Currently, there are still a dozen B-1B Lancers stationed at Fairfield, which also took part in Operation Epic Fury. As of now, it is unknown whether the USAF intends to return its B-1s or keep them forward-deployed in case diplomatic talks go sideways. Officially, the Air Force has made no mention of the bombers, nor has it clarified why the B-52s have left Fairfield. It is suspected that the move was done for diplomatic purposes, either as a show of goodwill or as a sign that negotiations are actually progressing. What’s Going On in the Middle East? On the diplomatic side, the situation is as clear as ever. That is to say, no one is quite sure what is happening. Despite the ceasefire still technically being in place, Iran and the U.S. exchanged fire with each other last week. CENTCOM reported that it had launched a series of “self-defense” strikes, to which the IRGC responded with drone/missile strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain. Meanwhile, violence between Israel and Lebanon continues with no end in sight in Southern Lebanon, further straining the already fragile ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. While the violence in the Middle East seems to have decreased overall, the main issues of contention, such as Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Iran’s control over Hormuz, have still not been resolved. Despite the still simmering tensions, there is some hope that negotiations are reaching somewhere. Talks with Iran are currently being conducted through Qatar. “Qatar & Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with the US & Iranian negotiators in Doha today, with positive progress made on issues related to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, building on the outcomes of the Lake Lucerne Summit,” Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Majed Al Ansari and Pakistan’s foreign ministry said in a joint statement shared on social media. Vice President JD Vance echoed these sentiments. “I can’t commit to anything, because obviously it depends on what the Iranians are ultimately going to do,” the Vice President said. “What I can commit to is the president’s not going to send our military back in unless he has to, unless there’s a clearly defined purpose for it.” The Current State of Diplomacy Negotiations are currently on pause as Iran is currently taking several days to mourn the death of its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the first week of Operation Epic Fury in an American airstrike. The funeral is expected to last until July 8, with representatives from more than 30 countries present for the processions. Earlier, footage released by Iranian state media revealed that Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the current commander of the IRGC, came out of hiding to attend the funeral. Vahidi disappeared from public on Feb 8 before the war started and was reportedly wounded or killed by an Israeli airstrike on Feb 28. Widely regarded as the architect of Iran’s current defensive strategy, he is the first to be seen in public in months. Currently, the main topic under discussion in the U.S. and Iran (prior to Khamenei’s funeral) was the Straight of Hormuz. Under the conditions of the MOU, the U.S. withdrew its blockade over the Strait in hopes that Iran would do the same. Officially, Iran is allowing traffic through the Strait provided that vessels follow the country’s recommended route. In the past week, Iran struck two commercial tankers for reportedly violating the points agreed upon in the MOU. However, over the past week, it was reported that traffic through the Strait increased, with around 200 vessels crossing, though this is a far cry from the prewar levels of 200 ships per day. Currently, the issue of who governs the Strait remains unresolved, and Iran could close the vital waterway again (as it has done several times over the past month). However, in general, talks seem to be going well for the U.S. About the Author: Isaac Seitz Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
US At 250: Why America Has Been So Successful And Can It Continue
US At 250: Why America Has Been So Successful And Can It Continue To mark the 250 year anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, Deutsche Bank has published a report looking at how the US emerged as a global superpower, and why it’s likely to remain one despite new challenges. First, DB considers how the US went from being a comparatively small country to the world's pre-eminent global power. These reasons range from the US' natural advantages, like favorable geography, to factors like its institutional stability and risk-tolerant capital markets. DB then considers the challenges that threaten US outperformance: China’s rapid growth means the US faces its biggest rival since its own emergence as the world’s dominant power. China's rise also coincides with several other issues: the rules based international system that the US helped create is under immense strain; the reserve currency status of the US Dollar is under pressure; and the country's public debt-to-GDP ratio is set to hit new records in the coming years. Finally, the bank's analysts Peter Sidorov and Henry Allen look at why the US is likely to sustain its outperformance, thanks to a collection of reinforcing advantages. In fact, the US has consistently emerged from challenging periods successfully, be that after the Great Depression, the malaise of the 1970s, and again around the GFC and its aftermath. The bank concludes with a few lessons for investors and for the rest of the world. 1. The Lessons from History: What underpins America’s Success? Before delving into the drivers of US success, let us bring with a few highlights of its historical outperformance. Since the United States' founding, the country has achieved remarkable economic success on a whole range of metrics. For one, the US saw rapid growth in population. It started as a comparatively small entity at its founding, but it quickly surged to overtake the large European countries in the mid 19th century and has continued to outpace them since. And with more people, it was little surprise that US GDP rapidly outpaced other countries too. This success extends beyond GDP growth. Unlike France or Germany, the US has never had a bout of hyperinflation in its history, with its currency maintaining its value comparatively well. Meanwhile, the US’ long-term equity performance has also been very strong. In the time since equity data is available from the late-19th century, real returns have outpaced the UK and Germany by substantial margins So what has caused this incredible success? The first reason, and one of the most critical historically, has been the US’ political and institutional stability. Clearly, there have been moments of intense turmoil, most notably with the Civil War in the 1860s. Its historical path also should not be over-romanticised, with US territorial expansion during the 19th century having many similarities to that of the Old World colonial empires. Nonetheless, the US is incredibly rare in that its political system is recognizably the same over the last 200 years. This relative stability and early development of property rights provided a fertile environment for long-term investments, which in turn has aided economic growth over the centuries. The second reason is its geographic advantages. The US possesses vast arable land, navigable rivers, large coastlines, and access to two oceans. It therefore found itself more insulated from the destructive effects of the world wars, with productive capacity not impacted in the same way. Moreover, the country borders Mexico and Canada, who in both population and GDP terms are much smaller than the United States, meaning it didn’t face the security risks that many European powers faced over the 19th and early-20th centuries. The third reason has been its abundance of energy resources, particularly relative to Europe. In large part a corollary of its geographic strengths, this energy abundance has given the US several advantages. First of all, lowering costs for households and industry, which has helped the economy be more resilient against geopolitical shocks. Moreover, with the US becoming a net energy exporter in recent years, it also strengthens the external position. The fourth reason for the US' relative success was that its main competitors in Europe were deeply affected by the world wars and wider political turmoil. Their productive and financial capacity was severely degraded, with the destruction causing huge loss of life as well. Even among those who survived, many scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs left for the US in the first half of the 20th century. Whilst not a US “success” as such, this meant that on a relative basis, the US’ divergence widened considerably. Indeed, in the first half of the 20th century, the US economy grew by 5.7 times, Germany by 3.4 times, the UK by 2.0 times, and France by 1.8 times. The fifth reason for the US’ outperformance is scale. It has a large domestic market of over 300m people, with high average incomes, a common language, and low internal barriers to trade. This has given firms the ability to reach a large-scale domestically before expanding abroad. Indeed, it is notable that 8 of the world’s 10 largest firms are based in the US, whereas none are in Europe. The sixth reason is the structural advantage of the US Dollar, which remains dominant in global trade and FX reserves. This dollar demand matters because it lowers borrowing costs and raises demand for US Treasuries. In turn, it leaves the US with an exceptional capacity to run bigger fiscal and external deficits without facing a funding crisis, and expands the geopolitical leverage that the US possesses. This has been dubbed the “exorbitant privilege”, and has been a major advantage in recent decades. The seventh reason is financial depth. The US has a large banking system, but also a wide range of non-bank financing, which means startups have access to other sources of capital. In fact, in the decade from 2013 to 2023, annual venture capital financing was 0.7% of GDP in the US, compared to just 0.2% in the EU. This financial depth is important because innovative firms can often be loss-making for lengthy periods, so countries with bigger pools of patient risk capital are better placed to commercialise new technologies. The eighth reason is its self-compounding advantages in education and research. The US has many of the world’s strongest research universities, including 7 of the top 10 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for 2026. Moreover, this research also has an economic angle, as scientific discoveries feed into startups, workforce training and industrial scale-ups. In turn, this becomes self compounding, because top global talent is attracted to the US, and ensures it remains at the forefront of new sectors such as artificial intelligence. The ninth reason is its pro-business architecture, including a greater tolerance of business failure than many European systems. For instance, Chapter 11 reorganisation is designed to preserve and restructure viable firms rather than liquidate them. This more positive approach to business failure ties into the empirical literature, which suggests that more debtor-friendly and efficient insolvency frameworks are associated with greater entrepreneurship and innovation. The tenth reason is adaptability. The cultural acceptance of failure and capacity to reinvent itself have boosted US ability to adapt to the changing world. This has allowed it to navigate repeat boom-and-bust cycles, as well swings of the policy pendulum – between openness and isolationism, between protectionism and free trade – without threatening overall the institutional stability we highlighted above. And while capitalism has been a key underlying driving force, it is pragmatism rather than ideology that have driven continued success over time. It is also important to note that these advantages do not play out individually, but are mutually reinforcing, with the interaction between them allowing the US to benefit from network and externality effects that few if any countries can match. US history has been marked by challenges and recoveries That said, this success story was far from a straight line. US outperformance has frequently been questioned, yet it has repeatedly defied the sceptics, including at numerous points in the last century. Right from the country’s founding, questions were raised about its long-term potential, and in the Civil War of the 1860s, the nation’s survival was at stake after less than a century. Even over the past 100 years, which has ostensibly been a period of US pre eminence, there have frequently been doubts. For example, after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the Great Depression saw unemployment peak above 25% and remain above 10% for an entire decade. The associated stock market collapse saw the S&P 500 fall by -86% from peak-to-trough, not reaching its 1929 peak again until 1954. This was a global shock, but it undermined faith in the US system of freemarket capitalism. However, the country eventually pulled out of the slump. That started with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal program, which helped to restore confidence and economic activity. Then the start of WWII saw economic activity surge even further, particularly as there wasn’t fighting on US soil. By the end of WWII, the US had never been in a stronger position relative to its peers, not least with Europe having to rebuild after the war. Similar doubts were clear as the US grappled with the various crises of the 1960s and 70s. This period saw major political turmoil and multiple assassinations, including President Kennedy in 1963, his brother and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy in 1968, and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968. A few years later, Richard Nixon became the first president to resign from office amidst the Watergate scandal. US military power was also facing questions at this time, as the Vietnam War turned into a protracted conflict that also faced substantial domestic opposition. Then on the economic front, inflation started to gather pace from the late-1960s, surging further after the first oil shock of 1973, leading to a 16-month recession. Measures were imposed to conserve energy, including the National Maximum Speed Limit, which wasn’t repealed until 1995. Then in 1979, a second oil shock drove inflation up again. This turmoil raised questions about whether policymakers could effectively tackle the crises of the day. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter delivered what was widely referred to as the “malaise” speech, although it was actually called “A crisis of confidence”. He said there was “growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.” He spoke of a “growing disrespect” for institutions, and said how the public often “see paralysis and stagnation and drift.” Even the US president was acknowledging that the country was facing huge issues. Nevertheless, the US then recovered strongly into the 1980s and 90s. Inflation was tamed, albeit with drastic monetary tightening, and the economy saw rapid growth once it recovered from the early 1980s recession. In 1991, the dissolution of the Soviet Union marked an end to the Cold War, and the 1990s were widely considered a unipolar moment where the US was left as the unmatched global superpower. So once again, the US came through a period of doubt over its success. But the unipolar moment proved brief, as the global financial crisis cast fresh doubt over US prestige. Unemployment surged above 10%, and the economy entered an 18-month recession, the longest since the Great Depression. Moreover, the subsequent recovery was very sluggish, with growth rates well below those of previous decades. Economists resurrected the idea of “secular stagnation”, originally put forward by Alvin Hansen in the 1930s, suggesting the US faced an era of permanently slower growth. These questions about US pre-eminence came as China was growing rapidly at the same time. In 2005, China’s GDP (in USD terms) was still only 18% of the US total, but that surged to 62% by 2015. That was an incredible shift in relative economic weight in the space of a decade. But for all the doubts of the 2010s, the secular stagnation narrative has since disappeared in the 2020s. The US economy bounced back remarkably quickly from the pandemic, aided by huge quantities of stimulus that were far larger than 2008. Moreover, recent years have seen the US at the forefront of AI developments, raising hopes of a new productivity surge, with its lead extending over the other advanced economies. So yet again today, the US has emerged from a rockier period around the financial crisis and its aftermath, into a relatively strong position that includes the highest GDP per capita of any G7 country. 2. The Challenges Ahead: Why the US now faces a crucial decade The above discussion highlights how the US has repeatedly overcome periods of doubt, with predictions of American decline proving premature each time. However, in several respects today’s challenges feel more acute. The US is not as dominant a geopolitical power as it used to be, given China’s emergence as a serious rival. Moreover, its debt-to-GDP ratio is on the verge of new records, meaning its fiscal space is far more constrained to deal with new challenges. As such, the next decade will offer a further test of US adaptability, and whether the political system can respond to these interacting pressures. What are the biggest near-term challenges for the United States? Since the end of the Cold War, the most significant adjustment has been the end of the unipolar moment and China’s emergence as a genuine peer competitor, which is different in scale and capability from any rival the US has faced since the late-19th century. China has already overtaken the US on manufacturing output, merchandise trade, and GDP (on a PPP basis), and is rapidly closing the gap in advanced technologies and semiconductors. The US retains decisive leads in nominal GDP, capital markets depth, the dollar system, and frontier innovation, but the gap has narrowed substantially. The military balance tells a similar story. US defense spending remains roughly three times China's at market exchange rates, but the PPP-adjusted gap is far smaller. More broadly, the gap between US military spending and other major economies has shrunk over the past 15 years. That comes as the proliferation of low-cost precision and autonomous systems is eroding the historic advantages of expeditionary power projection, raising the cost of underwriting the global security order the US has provided since 1945. We can also see the emergence of Chinese leadership in a whole range of areas. Among others, China accounts for a third of all global manufacturing activity, with a sector as large as the US, Japan, Germany and South Korea combined. The cost of electricity there is a fraction of what people pay in Europe or the US. And just as the US dollar’s role has come under pressure, China is strengthening the global influence of the RMB, in part because of its vast domestic savings surplus. The emergence of China comes as the rules-based international system designed and led by the US for eight decades is under strain from multiple directions. Admittedly, these strains have not just emerged. Even before the Trump administration, emerging markets had grown in relative size and become less willing to accept Western-designed institutions. Meanwhile, the political support for globalisation has frayed across advanced economies. But recent US policy choices have raised profound questions about the future global order. In 2025, the US effective tariff rate rose to its highest since the 1930s, representing the largest peacetime trade barrier increase in a century. Strategically, the US alliance network has been an enormous economic asset, underwriting dollar dominance, securing trade routes, and providing the soft-power foundation for global rule-setting. Yet US membership of NATO has become an openly debated question, and tariffs have been raised on US allies as well as rivals. This uncertainty has contributed to growing pressure on the US’ status as the global reserve currency. The dollar's share of global reserves has fallen from roughly 72% to 58% over two decades — a gradual decline rather than a collapse, but a clear trend nevertheless. The reduction has accrued to a basket of "non traditional" reserves and to gold, which has seen the largest central bank buying programme in over half a century. In addition to the overall transition away from a 1990s unipolar world, specific factors have added to the challenges that dollar dominance faces. This includes the weaponisation of the dollar through sanctions — notably the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022, which gave non Western-aligned countries a strategic incentive to develop alternatives even at material cost — as well as the structural decline of the petrodollar arrangement as energy trade has fragmented and the US has become a net oil exporter. Irrespective of the cause, were the US “exorbitant privilege” to erode further, this would bring major costs to the US and allow other currencies to benefit (see note on the potential benefits for the euro). As mentioned earlier, the structural subsidy that the US receives from its reserve currency status includes lower borrowing costs, the ability to run persistent external deficits without the discipline imposed on other economies and the advantages of the dollar being the unit of account for global trade, commodities and cross-border lending. None of this implies imminent displacement. No alternative is remotely ready to assume the dollar's role. Network effects and inertia in trade invoicing and central bank balance sheets all favour continued dollar dominance. Indeed, the pound sterling held a prominent role for many decades after the US had emerged as the world’s largest economy. So the realistic risk for the next decade is not collapse but gradual erosion, with a slow loss of the privilege margin that has boosted US economic performance. The US fiscal trajectory is the most plausible catalyst to accelerate that erosion, and for institutional investors is the single most concrete macroeconomic risk facing the United States. Over the last four years since 2022, the federal deficit has been consistently running at around 5-6% of GDP. Those are the highest peacetime deficits in US history outside of a major recession, and this is happening in a full employment economy. Debt held by the public is set to surpass 100% of GDP this year, and the CBO projections point to an unsustainable trajectory. Interest payments on the federal debt now exceed defense spending and are the fastest growing line item in the budget. Most significantly, the binding constraints are now set to arrive within the next decade. The latest estimates project that the Social Security trust fund will be depleted by late 2032, which would trigger an automatic benefit cut absent legislative action. The Medicare hospital insurance trust fund faces a similar reckoning shortly after. So while the unsustainability of the US public debt trajectory has been in the headlines for many years, these events are now more imminent – ones that the next US administration that takes office after the 2028 election will have to face. To be fair, the fiscal challenge is far from arithmetically catastrophic – a combination of AI-driven productivity growth and moderate fiscal consolidation could lead to significant improvements in the long-term debt profile. The difficulty is whether the political system can deliver such an outcome. Past fiscal consolidations required bipartisan compromise. Yet the current political environment offers little prospect of similar cooperation, with polarisation a mounting issue. Attempts in recent decades (like the Simpson-Bowles Commission in 2010) have failed to gain sufficient support. In the meantime, demographic trends are compounding both the fiscal and innovation challenges. The US fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 and the dependency ratio is set to deteriorate sharply as the baby boomer cohort fully enters retirement. Even though the population is comparatively younger than many other developed countries, it is still ageing. For example, the UN projects that the share of the US population aged 65 and over will rise from 19% in 2026 to 22% by 2036, rising further to 28% by the end of the century. An important connecting driver across fiscal, political and demographic challenges has been a rise in inequality. Its steady rise since the 1980s has gone hand-in-hand with a rise in political polarisation, especially once combined with the economic shock that followed the GFC and the sluggish recovery in its aftermath. A corollary of this is that the traditional “American dream” of social mobility has found itself under mounting pressure. The US now has lower intergenerational income mobility than almost all DM economies, which risks corroding the social contract on which open markets and creative destruction depend. It has also led to negative social effects, notably a widening of the life expectancy gap between Europe and the US since the 1980s. 3. Why the US Should Remain a Long-Term Success Story The challenges facing the US are real, but the weight of evidence still suggests it will remain the world's leading economy for the foreseeable future. Its collective structural advantages remain difficult to replicate, and it retains the same adaptability that’s helped it recover from previous difficulties. The starting point is that the US should remain the world's largest economy well beyond the critical decade coming up. A global demographic slowdown means that previous assumptions of rapid population and economic growth in emerging markets no longer look inevitable. Conversely, US economic growth has generally surprised on the upside since the pandemic, with the “secular stagnation” narrative of the 2010s quietly fading. Indeed, the US economy has successfully weathered multiple shocks in recent years, ranging from rapid Fed rate hikes, to tariffs, to the Iran conflict. Moreover, there is further upside potential to productivity growth (and hence economic growth) from the US’ significant lead on AI. This AI boom is the latest expression of the US capacity for reinvention that stretches back through its history: a willingness to embrace disruptive, capital intensive technology and absorb the dislocation it brings. AI is one of many new technologies that have often led to economic volatility (and boom-bust cycles on occasion), but whose benefits have delivered broad, economy-wide productivity gains over time. That was clear historically with canals, railroads, and electrification, and also with more recent innovations like the internet. Thus, the US is well-positioned to lead the AI cycle for several mutually reinforcing reasons: an innovation-friendly ecosystem of research universities and venture capital; a cultural and institutional acceptance of the boom-bust investment cycles that frontier technology requires; the deepest capital markets in the world to fund it; and abundant domestic energy. The shale revolution has transformed the US into a net energy exporter, and cheap, plentiful power is now a decisive input advantage in the race to build and run data centres. Few competitors can match this combination. The AI boost comes at a time when the US has already re-established its productivity outperformance in recent years. Since the pandemic, US productivity growth has risen above its post-1970 average, which in turn is boosting GDP and the revenue base. The potential fiscal arithmetic is powerful. According to CBO estimates, if productivity growth were just half a point above their baseline in the coming decade, then debt held by the public would only rise to 110% rather than 120% by 2036 (see the following DB note on the US debt outlook for more). However, productivity gains alone are unlikely to resolve the fiscal issue, in part because the political incentive is to spend the fiscal dividend rather than save it and in part given the uncertainty of how the gains would be distributed — a theme we return to below. On demographics, the US also enjoys a clear advantage over its principal rivals. China's working-age population will begin a pronounced contraction in the 2030s, with Europe in aggregate also seeing a decline, whereas the US will see moderate growth under a normalised migration trend . With a growing working-age population, the US would avoid this drag from a shrinking labor force. Moreover, the US has had a consistent capacity to absorb immigration at levels few other developed economies have managed. And with the demographic slowdown now reaching emerging markets, few major economies now have clearly better longterm demographic potential than the US. For instance, while India will maintain positive demographic momentum over the next couple of decades, with its fertility rate now below replacement rate, its advantage will shrink by the middle of the century. Even on the financial side, whilst the dollar’s role has come under pressure, it still retains a dominant and unrivalled position. The network effects that sustain it are exceptionally strong, and there is no obvious successor in the wings, unlike when the dollar overtook sterling in the interwar period. The depth and liquidity of US capital markets, inseparable from the dollar's role, are themselves a structural draw that even US rivals rely upon. Indeed, it is notable that the asset seeing a major increase in official reserves is gold, rather than another currency. And while new payment technologies could bring new risks to dollar dominance, US dominance in the stablecoin space will help limit these risks for the foreseeable future. The Conditions for Continued Success: Pitfalls to Avoid Yet much as there are credible reasons for US outperformance to continue, this cannot be taken for granted. The first key challenge is to ensure that the gains from future technological growth are broad-based, as excessive concentration risks adding to political and institutional dysfunction. We know from history that technological progress does not automatically deliver broadly shared prosperity. For instance, during the early Industrial Revolution, aggregate output rose for decades as wages for ordinary workers stagnated, a period that has been dubbed “Engels’ pause”. This offers a cautionary lesson on AI, and with the labor share of income in the US already near historic lows today, a further deterioration risks intensifying the social and political backlash building against the technology. It’s important to avoid that, as a backlash against technological advances would in turn negate its gains. A related risk is that if AI gains accrue to capital through profit margins while labor is shed, this would negate the fiscal benefits from higher productivity given the focus of the US tax system on labour taxation. This brings us to the second challenge – managing the fiscal adjustment and the related timing risk. The US is currently running budget deficits at levels previously unprecedented outside of a major recession or war. The ideal scenario would be some sort of bipartisan consensus, as in the early 1990s, to deal with the fiscal challenges ahead in a pre-emptive manner. However, political incentives to reduce deficits appear limited, raising the prospect that it will be up to markets to ultimately force consolidation. The risk is that this could come at a moment of heightened vulnerability, such as a wider economic crisis or recession, resulting in a harsher correction. A degree of financial repression, especially if combined with genuine consolidation, could end up playing a role in managing the debt burden. But a full embrace of that route — in an extreme case, via debt monetisation by the Fed — would merely accelerate the erosion of the dollar's special status. The third challenge is protecting the US’ institutional foundations. Institutional stability (and the consistent rule of law and secure property rights underpinning it) have been the bedrock on which the capital-markets and dollar advantages ultimately rest. If that eroded over the coming decades, it would create a more uncertain climate for long-term investments and dampen the international appeal that has attracted top talent and financial capital to the United States. The fourth challenge is a global one, in that the US has benefited immensely from the post-war system of US leadership. However, that settlement has come under increasing strain in recent years, particularly as emerging markets that have grown in size seek greater influence in global affairs. After all, the US only makes up around 26% of global GDP in USD terms. But with its allies, the influence of the US increases substantially. For instance, the G7 as a whole makes up 44% of global GDP, and if you include further US allies such as Australia and South Korea, its effective alliance network still comprises more than 50% of global GDP in dollar terms. With the US standing as the clear and unsurpassed leader of this group, maintaining this network has enormous benefits. What will the US’ ongoing success imply, and what are the key takeaways? To wrap up, let us briefly consider two concluding questions. First, what does the above analysis mean for investors looking at the US over the long term. And second, what lessons can the rest of the world learn from the success of the US model over time. For those allocating capital, the case for the US as the world's pre-eminent investment destination remains intact. An investor into the US buys a bundle that is hard to replicate – productivity leadership, the deepest and most liquid capital markets in the world, the rule of law that underpins them, and the flexibility conferred by the dollar's reserve role. That combination should persist. However, the risk premium around the US has risen, as fiscal strains and a wider geopolitical reshuffling point to a wider distribution of outcomes and bigger tail risks. In practice, this could play out in several ways. First, the dollar's "exorbitant privilege" is unlikely to disappear within the next decade, but gradual diversification of both reserves and payments is real and persistent. Already, the dollar's global importance has ebbed in recent years. These growing question marks around the dollar’s status are the first risk. Second, US equity leadership is now heavily concentrated in a handful of AI-exposed names, so the bull case increasingly rests on a small group of companies, again widening the tail risk outcomes. And third, there is a tail risk of a correlated scenario where a fiscal reckoning coincides with a correction in the AI investment cycle, pressuring equities, duration and the dollar simultaneously, and undermining the diversification that normally cushions portfolios. This is a scenario worth planning for, even if it is not the central case. What can the rest of the world learn from the US’ success? In part, it is simply down to luck, including geographic advantages and an abundance of resources, such as energy, that cannot be replicated elsewhere. However, there are several features that could be reproduced elsewhere. The first is its resilient institutional architecture, with a legal system and property rights that have provided a favourable environment for long-term investment. Although the US has faced severe crises in the last 250 years, including a civil war, its system of government has been recognisably the same throughout that time. Second, it has a well developed financial system, and a tolerance for risk that’s enabled the US to embrace new technologies and emerge quicker from downturns, with resources shifting quickly to new and productive sectors. US history demonstrates how suppressing volatility and preventing resource re-allocation can be counterproductive over the long term. Third, a key component of US success has been its adaptability to different contexts, and its ability to leverage existing strengths when under pressure. These range across its energy resources, capital markets, universities, military power, reserve currency status, and technological leadership. Even when one point has appeared under threat, others have been able to compensate. More in the full file available to pro subs. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/03/2026 - 15:20
Saudi Delegation Makes Unexpected Appearance In Tehran For Start Of Ayatollah's Funeral
Saudi Delegation Makes Unexpected Appearance In Tehran For Start Of Ayatollah's Funeral Friday and Saturday kick off what will be up to a week of solemn funeral observances for slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - a major historic event which is expected to draw some 15 to 20 million mourners in Tehran and across Iranian cities. Iran on Thursday issued a warning to the United States and Israel, Reuters reported: "We warn the enemies of Iran, especially the U.S. and the Zionist regime (Israel), to avoid any miscalculation and to think about the harsh retaliation our armed forces would make to any threat and aggression against our country," Ali Abdollahi, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in a statement carried by state media. Coffins containing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & members of his family at a mosque in Tehran, after their deaths during the opening of the US-Israeli 'Operation Epic Fury'. Getty Images The funeral procession events are expected to extend all the way to July 9, upon which the late Ayatollah will be buried in his hometown of Mashhad. Qom, as well as Shia centers in Iraq will also observe large-scale funeral events. Delegations representing various governments in the region have begun arriving in Tehran on Friday to pay their respects, though the Iranian government has made clear that no European governments were invited. There has already been some surprises, with Reuters reporting that Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed El Khereiji and his delegation have showed up in Tehran to pay their respects - though they weren't officially expected, per Iranian state publications... ⚡️BREAKING: Unexpected arrival of Saudi Arabia's Deputy Foreign Minister at the funeral ceremony of Ayatollah Khamenei While Oman and Qatar were on the list of foreign delegations, Saudi Arabia was Not pic.twitter.com/zjGrnKJ8TK — Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) July 3, 2026 This is perhaps a symbolic sign of a thawing of sorts between Gulf GCC states and Iran, at a moment the extended ceasefire continues to hold in order to give peace negotiations centered in Qatar and Switzerland a greater chance of success. Media reports have indicated that the Trump administration is holding off any further military action during the funeral proceedings, and given that in Washington major July 4th events will kick off over the weekend, which marks the 250th anniversary of America's founding. One delegation which was indeed expected, and has arrived amid the cameras are the Russians, headed by Dmitry Medvedev, former president and now Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council: Russia's Medvedev and the Russian delegation paid their respects to Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. pic.twitter.com/FjCjQGDs0R — Clash Report (@clashreport) July 3, 2026 Also, regional media notes that "Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid his respects on Friday before the remains of Ali Khamenei, accompanied by government officials including the Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf." "State television footage showed Masoud Pezeshkian praying before the former supreme leader's coffin, upon which a black turban rests," Middle East Eye reported. For more details on what to expect in the coming days, read our: Buried On The 4th Of July: Mediators Pledge Quiet Between US, Iran To Allow For Ayatollah Khamenei's Funeral Below is a round-up of some of the latest headlines and developments via MEE: Ali Khamenei’s body arrived at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla mosque, where mourners have begun gathering ahead of Saturday’s funeral. Iranian authorities expect more than 20 million people to participate in funeral ceremonies, which will conclude with Khamenei’s burial in Mashhad on July 9. A red flag from the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad was placed over Khamenei’s coffin during ceremonies in Tehran. Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, the new commander of the IRGC, made a rare public appearance during a memorial event in the Iranian capital. Pakistan’s interior minister arrived in Iran ahead of the funeral as foreign delegations continue to gather for the ceremonies. President Donald Trump said Iran has “almost agreed” to US demands and confirmed negotiations with Tehran will continue. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said lasting peace in the region must be comprehensive and free from external interference. Iran’s UN representative warned that any US violation of the memorandum of understanding would trigger an Iranian response. Iran’s military command instructed vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to follow designated routes or face a “forceful response”. In Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun called for international pressure on Israel to implement the framework agreement, while Israel announced the Givati Brigade had completed its mission in southern Lebanon. Below: Medvedev and the Russian delegation are given a warm red-carpet welcome in Tehran, after which he proceeds to where the slain supreme leader's coffin is displayed for mourners: The Russian plane indeed carried Medvedev The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council & special envoy of Putin, arrived in Iran to participate in the farewell ceremony & pay his respects to the martyred leader of Iran. https://t.co/zI795Kzkuw pic.twitter.com/jfKGTf7AcE — Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) July 3, 2026 As for the Saudis visiting Tehran, this in and of itself is a rare, unexpected development in relations - given the two sides have only slowly reopened diplomatic relations in the past few years, with mutual embassies going active - a feat largely mediated by China. Might their be some backchannel diplomacy happening while the Saudis are there? Tyler Durden Fri, 07/03/2026 - 12:50
US feared Israel could kill Iran’s top negotiators during peace talks: Report
The United States feared Israel could assassinate Iran’s top negotiators during sensitive peace talks earlier this year, prompting Washington to quietly warn Tehran through regional intermediaries, according to a New York Times report citing current and former US officials. The two officials at the centre of the concern were Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Worry over their safety grew sharply once ceasefire talks began in April, the paper reported. Had the negotiators been killed, officials feared the ceasefire talks could have collapsed, potentially reigniting the war. Fearing that an Israeli strike on the two men would collapse the negotiations and restart the war, Washington asked other countries in the region to warn Iran about the threat. Officials said that while Araghchi and Ghalibaf could have been seen as fair targets earlier in the war, killing them once talks were underway risked ending diplomacy entirely. The war began on February 28, when an Israeli strike killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other senior officials, based partly on US intelligence, the Times reported. Israel focused on eliminating Iran’s leadership early in the conflict, including officials seen as more open to negotiation, such as national security chief Ali Larijani and former foreign minister Kamal Kharazi. Both were killed in Israeli strikes while involved in talks with the US. Ghalibaf narrowly survived two separate incidents during the war, including an Israeli strike on a bunker meeting of senior officials, according to three Iranian officials cited by the New York Times. In April, he was flying back to Tehran from talks in Islamabad when Iranian security forces picked up intelligence that two Israeli jets had entered Iranian airspace, according to the report. The plane made an emergency landing in Mashhad, and the delegation completed the journey home by road, taking about eight hours. A Wall Street Journal report from March said Israel had placed Araghchi and Ghalibaf on a target list, but paused those plans once US-Iran talks began, according to the New York Times. Despite the risks, both men have continued travelling for talks, including trips to Qatar in May and Switzerland in June to meet US Vice President JD Vance, the Times reported. A lawmaker, Mohsen Zanganeh, said the negotiators had taken on real personal risk by continuing the talks. “This is called a real sacrifice, not political manoeuvring,” Zanganeh said, according to the Times. A spokeswoman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington declined to comment when reached by the Times. A US official said talks are continuing, adding that President Trump wants the peace process to continue moving forward. The next round of indirect US-Iran talks is expected after ceremonies marking Khamenei’s death conclude, with negotiators aiming to advance the implementation of the 14-point memorandum signed last month.