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US seeks $672 million for removal of Iranian uranium, nuclear inspections — TV
NEW YORK, June 24 /TASS/. The administration of US President Donald Trump is seeking $672 million to fund operations aimed at removing Iran’s enriched uranium and conducting inspections of the country’s nuclear facilities, Fox News reported, citing sources. According to them, the amount is part of a broader $80 billion supplemental funding request, which US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has communicated to Republican members of the House of Representatives. Fox News noted that the funds are intended to cover the costs of the military operation against Iran and to replenish US ammunition stockpiles. The $672 million is expected to be allocated to the Department of Energy for operations aimed at depriving Iran of the ability to develop or acquire nuclear weapons, the removal and destruction of Iranian nuclear materials, including highly enriched uranium, as well as inspections on Iranian territory and support for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification activities. Earlier, US President Donald Trump told Fox News that US inspectors would join IAEA representatives and travel to Iran to search for highly enriched uranium.
UN nuclear agency says its inspectors will visit Iran sites
The head of the UN’s nuclear agency yesterday signaled that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the US and Iran to reach an end to their war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi was the firmest yet from the agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran last year, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons. Photo: AP Iran has said that its program is peaceful, although it would be the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity without a weapons program. The US and Iran offered contradictory remarks on Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a memorandum of understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. The accord “explicitly states that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards of the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. “Obviously, to do that, we have to inspect,” Grossi added. BOOST: By operating the same advanced systems as the US military, Taiwan would be better positioned to share and integrate intelligence with partners, an expert said The first batch of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones has arrived in Taiwan, and is being assembled and tested by drone manufacturer General Atomics and the military ahead of flight trials as part of the air force’s acquisition to bolster its aerial surveillance capabilities, a source said yesterday. The air force allocated a budget of NT$21.7 billion (US$687 million) from 2022 to 2029 to procure four MQ-9B uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by General Atomics along with associated equipment such as ground control stations. The US has agreed to deliver the four MQ-9Bs to Taiwan in two batches this year and next ‘BRAZEN’: The holiday did not stop China from activities that infringe on Taiwan’s maritime jurisdiction, but the CGA is ready to defend the nation, Kuan Bi-ling said Beijing is intensifying maritime pressure on Taiwan, but the nation will never yield, Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en (宋承恩) said. The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has adopted a “shadowing and monitoring” approach to avoid falling into a Chinese trap to escalate tensions and deepen the conflict, Sung said in an interview published yesterday in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper). China Coast Guard formations patrolling waters east of Taiwan, as well as official Chinese vessels entering areas around Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) and Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) show Beijing’s attempts to significantly step up Taiwanese firms’ China investments have dwindled to less than 1 percent of their total foreign investments, putting China-based investments on track for a record low this year, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed. Taiwan’s investments abroad in the first five months of this year reached US$35.92 billion, Department of Investment Review data showed. Investments outside China totaled US$35.61 billion, up 133.94 percent year-on-year, while investments in China totaled US$310.3 million, down 32.3 percent and about 0.86 percent of the total, data showed. Major overseas projects included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) US$30 billion capital injection into an overseas subsidiary, VARYING OPINIONS: People with different political affiliations have different views on how bilateral ties with the US, Japan and China would affect Taiwan’s security Two-thirds of Taiwanese view closer US and Japan ties as beneficial to security, a survey by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed. To gauge the Taiwanese public’s perceptions of how different external relationships affect security, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research commissioned a survey by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center asking respondents whether closer relations with the US, Japan and China would strengthen or weaken Taiwan’s national security. The results, published on Thursday in a report by institute researcher Lee Kuan-chen (李冠成), found that about 66 percent of respondents believe improved Taiwan-US relations would strengthen national security,
"The Epitome Of Ludicrousness"
"The Epitome Of Ludicrousness" By Michael Every of Rabobank "All-You-Can-Eat Shrimp" “My view is that the United States could take all the seafood Greenland could produce, and cut out the middleman, and keep it from China — and you could bring back all-you-can-eat shrimp at Red Lobster.” That’s a recent quote from a Trump official in The New Yorker arguing for the annexation of that territory. As the magazine notes, the plans are both “ludicrous” and “deadly serious.” Well, loosen your belts, folks, because there’s an all-you-eat buffet of such news. Yesterday, South Korea’s KOSPI -- in an OECD economy with top chips, consumer goods, plastic surgery, and boy- and girl-bands-- slumped 9.99%. At time of writing it was up 3.6% after news of a share buy-back by a chaebol. In Taiwan, home to cutting-edge TSMC (and geopolitical tensions) Bloomberg notes a 26-year-old unemployed man invested $60,000 in tech stocks after being advised, “buy any stock and you will make money,” as teenagers are opening brokerage accounts and trading volumes are crashing websites. This is apparently ‘the way things are.’ The EU, and Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece just joined the US Pax Silica ‘no China’ AI tech supply chain initiative alongside Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK; Israel, Qatar, and the UAE; Argentina, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, and Panama; and Australia, India, Japan (which has seen China choke its supply of rare earths), Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. That’s the deadly serious part. What’s ludicrous is thinking that under this Pax there will be normal trade with China, when decoupling is the design, and that inside it anybody but the US will dominate due to economies of scale and first-mover advantage. As the US Deputy Secretary of War argues in ‘The Digital Sovereignty Trap’ that while, “The UN wants every nation to build its own AI stack,” that is “the surest way to stay a generation behind.” Meanwhile, ‘The copper crunch: inside the US-China battle for a critical global supply chain’, underlines that frothy Asian tech and geoeconomic alliances ultimately require that metal – and there isn’t enough for everyone. That this zero-sum equation is not front and center of current market discussions, rather than the electronic/’paper’ price of assets that simply assume supplies of this key metal into existence, is the epitome of ludicrousness and deadly seriousness. Then again, we went through the same process with oil, and markets think they won that battle. Yet Iran and Oman say they will control Hormuz and charge for it; the US says they can’t. Tehran insists it won’t let IAEA inspectors in; the US says they will. There’s no agreement on what they’d do there – watch a down-blending of highly-enriched uranium to a safe 0.7% or be shown Potemkin villages? Iran’s president stated without missiles, the country would be “just like Gaza”; a former Israeli PM said he’d smuggled Starlink systems into Iran to support an uprising, but this had been curtailed by PM Netanyahu (as a Kurdish uprising and on-the-ground drone strikes vs. Basij militia were by somebody). Israeli is reportedly behind a cyber attack now hitting Iranian banks. Lebanon’s president rejected Israeli occupation and foreign interference, meaning Iran and Hezbollah, as Israeli and Lebanese delegations met in the US. The Israelis call the emerging deal there a “train wreck.” It will be for someone. Relatedly, the Trump Gaza Board of Peace is to ‘recalibrate’ at a Cyprus resort after a rocky first six months. In the background, it’s reported China plans to offer postwar aid for Iran, with an eye on its energy supply. Can you join the dots there? In the US, the Senate passed a resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran, which is performative given: (1) he has; and (2) Trump can veto it even if the Supreme Court doesn’t. Then again, the entire US-Iran MoU can be seen as performative and subject to a Trump veto. The EU’s Von der Leyen plans to visit Armenia, firmly in the former-Soviet Russian orbit, to show support for the pro-EU government there; that’s as Germany announced it will scrap plans to build its biggest warship since WW2, showing again that ambitious defense spending plans are not producing impressive results for the battlefield or oceans. Indeed, commentators are noting that Ukraine is set to be the military leader within the EU, as its accession process begins, a major shift in relative power in a very short period of time. Besides the volatility in tech, the 10-year anniversary of Brexit shows the City of London fearing “Trump’s America may win the race,” according to Politico. That’s as the BoE has diluted its new stablecoin rules with plans for a £40bn issuer limit but no longer restricting holdings by individuals and companies. In other words, the market will be open for business – but unlike in the US, no big player will be able to dominate it, keeping everything ‘niche’. Then again, few expect any currency other than the US dollar, and its big players --except perhaps the Chinese renminbi-- to be able to dominate emerging crypto architecture. On that front, Bloomberg notes ‘China Crackdown Rattles the Rich in World’s Top Offshore Hub’, which doesn’t seem to support the case for an alternative FX infrastructure on the financial side at least (though trade commodity finance may be a different story). And in Europe, “an historic day” was declared as the European Parliament backed a digital Euro. What role that will play in the global crypto ecosystem --with its emerging, stacked layers of: defence to provide copper, etc.; to provide AI; to provide industry and defence; to get the power to back the digital asset-- remains to be seen but it’s going to be (another) major realpolitik struggle. In real politics, Trump is pushing the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, to save Republicans, who don’t want to pass it; acting DNI head Pulte is rattling cages in D.C.; Marjorie Taylor Greene joined Tucker Carlson in officially ditching the GOP (to form a ‘space lasers’ party?); and Reuters frames it that New York Mayor Mamdani’s political endorsements are testing the Democrats' appetite for far-left candidates – and it seems Democratic Socialism sells well within the primary electorate in New York at least based on the results. That, and the White House is pushing back on speculation that Trump got early access to a new obesity drug for “compassionate use.” Like I said, it’s all-you-can eat right now in many areas that are simultaneously ludicrous and deadly serious. In the UK, King of the North and PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham is being advised to borrow new billions for infrastructure; and he says he’ll boost the defense budget; and that he will stick to the fiscal rules. Is that all-you-can-tax-and-spend, or something new in political-economy? Markets will have to wait and see. Now back to sensibly frivolous coverage of the KOPSI, whose recent 9.99% daily decline ironically occurred the day after former Fed Chair Alan “I never met a bubble that I didn’t like” (really, that was his view) Greenspan passed away at 100. Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 11:45
UN nuclear head says inspections of Iran sites is ‘going to happen’ - National | Globalnews.ca
The head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim U.S.-Iran to reach an end to the war. But an Iranian diplomat promptly rejected this, saying such a visit can only come after a final deal — a denial that highlighted the precariousness of the ongoing negotiations. The remarks by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 per cent purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi acknowledged the contradictions, calling it a “war of words” at the moment. Grossi says inspections are ‘going to happen’ “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents,” he told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord “says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. Grossi added: “Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.” Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be “downblended” from highly enriched levels. Get breaking National news Kazem Gharibabadi, a Iranian deputy foreign minister, took his own shot at Grossi after his remarks, saying Tehran didn’t meet with him while in Switzerland. “These issues will be reviewed and decided only within the framework of a final agreement and as a result of practical action by the other side to end all sanctions and other measures.” Gharibabadi wrote on X. He added: “You cannot advance the ‘stir up and take over’ policy with media hype.” IAEA blocked from seeing bombed sites - Ottawa student flagged as security threat over research helpful to Iran’s weapons program - Man arrested in Hungary for collecting human body parts from cemeteries - U.S.-Iran working to finalize deal as Iranian president arrives in Pakistan - Iran-U.S. talks have set ‘good foundation’ for ending war, Vance says The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran’s stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn’t been enriching uranium, but nonproliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives U.S.-backed sanctions on Iranian oil, while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. But the uneasy ceasefire already has been tested by Iran saying it closed the strait again over fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Violence again broke out in Lebanon on Tuesday, but it did not escalate. Technical-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume early next week at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. Pakistan has been a key mediator. Marco Rubio is in the Middle East Grossi’s remarks came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Persian Gulf for a three-nation tour, beginning with a closed-door meeting and private working lunch in Abu Dhabi with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said Wednesday. Rubio is scheduled to travel next to Kuwait and then Bahrain for meetings with their leaders later Wednesday and Thursday.
UN nuclear boss says inspectors will visit Iran sites. Tehran says only after a final deal
The head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim U.S.-Iran to reach an end to the war. But an Iranian diplomat promptly rejected this, saying such a visit can only come after a final deal — a denial that highlighted the precariousness of the ongoing negotiations. The remarks by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran's nuclear stockpile. RELATED STORY | US and Iran begin nuclear negotiations with both sides reporting progress after opening talks Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60% purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi acknowledged the contradictions, calling it a “war of words” at the moment. Grossi says inspections are ‘going to happen’ “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents,” he told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord “says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. Grossi added: “Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.” Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be “downblended” from highly enriched levels. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT | US negotiations with Tehran include a plan to return nuclear inspectors to Iran Kazem Gharibabadi, a Iranian deputy foreign minister, took his own shot at Grossi after his remarks, saying Tehran didn’t meet with him while in Switzerland. “These issues will be reviewed and decided only within the framework of a final agreement and as a result of practical action by the other side to end all sanctions and other measures.” Gharibabadi wrote on X. He added: “You cannot advance the ‘stir up and take over’ policy with media hype.” IAEA blocked from seeing bombed sites The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran's stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn't been enriching uranium, but nonproliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives U.S.-backed sanctions on Iranian oil, while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. But the uneasy ceasefire already has been tested by Iran saying it closed the strait again over fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Violence again broke out in Lebanon on Tuesday, but it did not escalate. Technical-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume early next week at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. Pakistan has been a key mediator. Marco Rubio is in the Middle East Grossi’s remarks came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Persian Gulf for a three-nation tour, beginning with a closed-door meeting and private working lunch in Abu Dhabi with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said Wednesday. Rubio is scheduled to travel next to Kuwait and then Bahrain for meetings with their leaders later Wednesday and Thursday.
UN nuclear agency boss says inspectors will visit Iran’s nuclear sites under Iran-U.S. interim deal
TOKYO — The head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60% purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi acknowledged the contradictions, calling it a “war of words” at the moment. Grossi says inspections are ‘going to happen’ “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents,” he told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord “says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. Grossi added: “Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.” Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be “downblended” from highly enriched levels. There was no immediate reaction from Iran. On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that U.N. inspectors were not scheduled to examine nuclear sites bombed by the U.S. last year, rejecting comments made a day before by U.S. Vice President JD Vance. IAEA blocked from seeing bombed sites The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran’s stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn’t been enriching uranium, but nonproliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives U.S.-backed sanctions on Iranian oil, while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. But the uneasy ceasefire already has been tested by Iran saying it closed the strait again over fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Violence again broke out in Lebanon on Tuesday, but it did not escalate. Technical-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume early next week at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. Pakistan has been a key mediator. Marco Rubio is in the Middle East Grossi’s remarks came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Persian Gulf for a three-nation tour, beginning with a closed-door meeting and private working lunch in Abu Dhabi with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said Wednesday. Rubio is scheduled to travel next to Kuwait and then Bahrain for meetings with their leaders later Wednesday and Thursday.
IAEA chief says inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites under Iran-US interim deal
IAEA chief says inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites under Iran-US interim deal TOKYO — The head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran's nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60% purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi acknowledged the contradictions, calling it a "war of words" at the moment. Grossi says inspections are 'going to happen' "I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents," he told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord "says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters," he said. Grossi added: "Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it's important, but not essential. This is going to happen." Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran's stockpile of uranium to be "downblended" from highly enriched levels. There was no immediate reaction from Iran. On Tuesday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that U.N. inspectors were not scheduled to examine nuclear sites bombed by the U.S. last year, rejecting comments made a day before by U.S. Vice President JD Vance. IAEA blocked from seeing bombed sites The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran's stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn't been enriching uranium, but nonproliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives U.S.-backed sanctions on Iranian oil, while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. But the uneasy ceasefire already has been tested by Iran saying it closed the strait again over fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Violence again broke out in Lebanon on Tuesday, but it did not escalate. Technical-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume early next week at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. Pakistan has been a key mediator. Marco Rubio is in the Middle East Grossi's remarks came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Persian Gulf for a three-nation tour, beginning with a closed-door meeting and private working lunch in Abu Dhabi with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said Wednesday. Rubio is scheduled to travel next to Kuwait and then Bahrain for meetings with their leaders later Wednesday and Thursday.
'UN inspectors will visit Iran nuclear sites'
The head of the United Nations nuclear agency signalled on Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the UN agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran's nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its programme is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity without a weapons programme. The US and Iran offered contradictory remarks on Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi acknowledged the contradictions, calling it a "war of words" at the moment. "I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a memorandum of understanding, signed by both presidents," he told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord "says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA – in all letters," he said. Grossi added: "Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen." Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be "downblended" from highly enriched levels. There was no immediate reaction from Iran. On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that UN inspectors were not scheduled to examine nuclear sites bombed by the US last year, rejecting comments made a day before by US Vice President JD Vance. The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran's stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn't been enriching uranium, but non-proliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The US and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives US-backed sanctions on Iranian oil, while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. Technical-level talks between Tehran and Washington are expected to resume early next week at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. Pakistan has been a key mediator. (AP) Edited by Aaron Tam
U.N. inspectors will visit Iran’s nuclear sites under U.S. deal, nuclear agency boss says
The head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60% purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. Grossi’s remarks came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Persian Gulf for a three-nation tour, beginning with a closed-door meeting and private working lunch in Abu Dhabi with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said Wednesday. Rubio is scheduled to travel next to Kuwait and then Bahrain for meetings with their leaders later Wednesday and Thursday. “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord “says explicitly that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards to the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. Grossi added: “Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.” Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be “downblended” from highly enriched levels. There was no immediate reaction from Iran. On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that U.N. inspectors were not scheduled to examine nuclear sites bombed by the U.S. last year, rejecting comments made a day before by U.S. Vice President JD Vance. The IAEA has been allowed to visit other nuclear sites in Iran since the 12-day war in 2025, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant. But without accessing the enrichment sites, the IAEA says it is unable to verify the status of Iran’s stockpile or check the cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Both Iran and the IAEA say Tehran hasn’t been enriching uranium, but nonproliferation experts worry that the Islamic Republic may be moving its stockpile to undeclared areas. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a deal last week that calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium and waives U.S.-backed sanctions on the country while giving each side 60 days to hammer out broader agreements. But the uneasy ceasefire already has been tested by Iran saying it closed the strait again over fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Violence again broke out in Lebanon on Tuesday, but it did not escalate.
UN nuclear agency boss signals that inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites
UN nuclear agency boss signals that inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites The head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency has signaled that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war The head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency signaled Wednesday that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the United States and Iran to reach an end to the war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi was the firmest yet from the United Nations agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran's nuclear stockpile. Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran in 2025, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic Republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons, should it choose to rush for the bomb. Iran long has maintained that its program is peaceful, though it is the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60% purity without a weapons program. The U.S. and Iran offered contradictory remarks Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected. “I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a Memorandum of Understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference from the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The accord “explicitly states that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards of the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. Grossi added: “Obviously, to do that, we have to inspect. Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in ten days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.” Those inspections are key for the deal, which calls for Iran’s stockpile of uranium to be “downblended” from highly enriched levels. ___ Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Cyberattack Hits Iran's Banking System, Disrupting Card Networks At Three Major Lenders
Cyberattack Hits Iran's Banking System, Disrupting Card Networks At Three Major Lenders It seems that the United States and Israel have not completely given up on covert efforts toward regime change in Iran, or at least on sabotage efforts to weaken the government's hold over the population. The precursor to Trump's Operation Epic Fury was of course the January economic protests, which saw serious clashes with police and security forces, and left thousands dead. Trump subsequently claimed over 30,000 were killed - a very high, dubious number - according to many independent analysts. At the same time US Treasury Secretary Bessent openly bragged about waging economic warfare to send the Rial plunging, which was a spark and catalyst for the destabilizing protests and unrest. On Tuesday Al Jazeera reports on what could be renewed efforts to further weaken Iran from within. "Iran's state-owned banking technology provider says attacks disrupted services at Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat," the publication reports. EPA, via Shutterstock One theory among Washington hawks is that economic collapse can be engineered via external means (though Israel has also long bragged about having many assets on the ground inside the Islamic Republic). Is the prior failed 'plan A' still on? ...even as direct bombing has failed to achieve regime change? According to more from Al Jazeera, referencing the major bank-focused cyberattacks: This had prompted a temporary suspension of all card-related operations at the three banks to prevent further unauthorized access, the company told state TV, with cybersecurity teams working to restore normal operations. The company’s public relations head said ATM services, point-of-sale terminals and mobile applications linked to card systems were all affected. Major banks, including Melli, Saderat, Tejarat and the Export Development Bank of Iran, have faced disruptions first reported on June 14 after a cyberattack targeting a shared communication infrastructure, Iran’s banking coordination council has said. As far can be assessed, there was no unrest or protests that resulted in this latest incident, and Iranian state media has in follow-up reported that the serious issues and lack of fund access for customers took several days to resolve. "Iranian authorities have previously blamed hostile foreign actors, such as Israel, for similar incidents. Israel has previously not commented on such allegations," the Tuesday report also noted. Iran is bracing for more such cyber-provocations, given it is still technically at war with the US and Israel, and despite the signing of the peace MoU with the US, based on extending the ceasefire for at least 60-days, giving time for the nuclear issue to be dealt with. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 17:20
Futures Slide As Tech Tumbles, Korea Crashes
Futures Slide As Tech Tumbles, Korea Crashes US equity futures are sharply lower as a Semis/South Korea-induced selloff has spread globally slamming tech stocks and pushing SpaceX 3% lower and below its first day of trading price of $150. Nasdaq stocks lead sentiment and early trading lower with AI cost concerns back in focus, as Bloomberg notes that traders are pointing to a South Korean media report we first highlighted at 8pm last night, saying SK Hynix is slowing expansion of AI memory chip production and shifting emphasis to commodity DRAM. As of 8:00am S&P futures were -1.3%, and Nasdaq futures tumbled 2.7%, both near session lows. In premarket trading, Intel and Micron led a broader decline among chipmakers while SpaceX fell 4.3%, below its $150 initial trade price. Chinese equities in Hong Kong entered a bear market. Mag7s are dragging the indices lower with MSFT / telecom the safety valve. In Seoul, chip giants SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. slumped more than 10%. According to JPM, today's sell-off "may reflect anxiety into MU’s print on Weds as well as the levered ETF mkt structure." Bonds are operating as a safety haven as the yield curve bull steepens, and USD is bid. Commodities are seeing further declines in Energy as US / Iran discussions continue and precious metals are getting hit due to USD (gold) and AI / Tech (silver). Ags are mixed. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, ADP’s weekly employment print, and regional Fed activity indicators. In premarket trading, chipmakers, memory stocks and other AI-related firms slide during the broader selloff. Decliners include Micron (MU -7%), Intel (INTC -6%), AMD (AMD -6%) and CoreWeave (CRWV -5%). Nvidia leads most of the Magnificent Seven group lower (Nvidia -2%, Tesla -2%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft +1%, Apple -0.3%, Amazon -0.6%, Alphabet -2%,) Avis Budget (CAR) climbs 4% as the rental car company entered into a settlement agreement with Pentwater Capital Management and affiliated persons to resolve a lawsuit seeking recovery of short-swing profits, the company said in a filing. Best Buy (BBY) falls 3% after the company said Matt Bilunas will step down as CFO and depart the retailer at the end of July after 20 years, including seven years as CFO. Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) rises 9% after people familiar with the matter said the maker of Schick razors has rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from private equity firm Yellow Wood Partners. IBM (IBM) gains 4% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight and as the company announced it has joined the OpenAI Daybreak Cyber Partner Program. Primoris Services (PRIM) sinks 35% after the infrastructure construction company cut its adjusted earnings guidance for the full year. In other corporate news, Oracle reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees in the past 12 months, a wider scale than previously known, including those whose jobs were eliminated by the use of AI. SoftBank’s founder said there’s little merit to building data centers in space, while acknowledging that AI competition is intensifying. In an ugly session that started with a rout in South Korea, the Kospi finished down 10% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 2.5% and are struggling to find a floor. European stocks are not immune with the Stoxx 600 down 1%. Other assets have been caught up in the equity selloff with spot silver down over 4% and Bitcoin dropping 3%. Memory stocks, many of which are riding triple-digit gains this year, recorded some of the steepest losses. SpaceX was poised to fall below its first-day opening price of $150. In Seoul, chip giants SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. slumped more than 10%. Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. led a broader decline among chipmakers in US premarket trading, while SpaceX fell 4.3%. Chinese equities in Hong Kong entered a bear market. BofA equity derivative strategists said the Nasdaq 100’s heavy concentration in technology stocks has fueled its outperformance versus the S&P 500 in both returns and volatility. That’s pushed the Nasdaq’s Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) closer to a key level which often signals elevated near-term tail risks. Meanwhile, already jittery tech sentiment and volatility could turn on a dime after Micron’s earnings tomorrow. The chipmaker has been the largest contributor to S&P 500 gains this year, while technology stocks make up each of the index’s 10 biggest drivers of returns. “Some of the recent performance in stocks has been highly speculative, fueled by a passion from retail investors for short-term gains,” Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “We may not like it this morning, but actually it’s healthy behavior. The market selloff “is largely a blip, but it is tapping a real and more fundamental anxiety,” said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “The blip part: it is a single piece of local trade press, landing into a jumpy tape and a day before a nervous Micron print, on a trade that is about as crowded and as priced-for-perfection as anything in the market. One regular buyer of stocks, the corporates themselves, are exiting for the time being. Goldman’s Vani Ranganath estimates approximately 65% of companies have entered their blackout window ahead of 2Q results. For the AI trade, attention is now shifting to Micron’s quarterly results on Wednesday after the stock rallied more than 300% since January. “The real test is Micron,” said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “I would watch the rate of change in pricing and any change to capex or bit-supply guidance far more closely than the headline beat or miss.” Fed’s Goolsbee said he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether all the factors driving prices up are temporary. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer kicked off talks with Indian officials this week as both sides stepped up efforts to resolve the remaining differences holding up an interim trade agreement. In other assets, currency traders are on high alert for intervention after further weakness in the yen. Gold slides, with Deutsche Bank following Goldman in cutting price forecasts for the metal. European equities fell sharply at the open on Tuesday: the Stoxx 600 falls 1.1% to 632.10, with mining and technology shares leading declines while health care and food beverage stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday: Porsche shares rise as much as 1.8%, erasing early declines after the German luxury carmaker confirmed its forecast for the 2026 financial year Basic resources stocks are falling the most in the Stoxx Europe 600, with the sector index down as much as 4.6%, as metals fell across the board on inflationary concerns and progress of peace talks Hermes shares fall as much as 2.9%, extending its drop to 11% over the past three sessions, after HSBC downgraded its rating on the Birkin bag maker to hold from buy Epiroc drops as much as 5.6%, the most in three months, as UBS downgrades the Swedish mining-equipment maker to sell from neutral and says its valuation “has gone too far” Signify plunges as much as 18% after the Dutch lighting manufacturer announced new medium-term targets and an updated dividend policy that analysts say would mean big cuts to shareholder payouts Telecom Plus shares plunge as much as 33%, sending shares to their lowest level since 2012. The company’s new five-year plan will see it invest with the ambition of improving growth and the quality of earning Dometic declines as much as 11%, the most since March, with Danske Bank cautioning its upcoming 2Q report will be held back by tough US markets for its RV and marine divisions Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell reversing the previous session’s gains as a selloff in technology shares weighed on regional markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Most of the region’s major markets were in the red, led by declines in South Korea, Japan and China. A sub-gauge of information technology shares slid as much as 6.1%, after rallying 2.3% on Monday. South Korean stocks tumbled 10% from a record high as investors dumped chip heavyweights on concerns that the rally has become overstretched, prompting the local exchange to briefly halt program selling. Japanese equities slipped as some AI-related stocks fell following a selloff in US tech megacaps. “I think our Asian markets are tracking a rotation already underway in the US rather than a fresh risk-off move,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. “Hyperscalers have been leading the pullback on AI capex concerns and negative cash flow concerns.” In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.2% although the yen takes top place among the G-10 currencies, climbing a few pips against the greenback. The Aussie dollar is the weakest, falling 0.7%. In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve with gains led by front-end and belly, as oil steadies and stock futures slump after a selloff in Korean chipmakers stoked concerns about the artificial intelligence trade. US yields richer by as much as 4bp across front-end and belly with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp and 3bp on the day; 10-year is around 4.48%, 3bp richer on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by around 1bp: German and UK 10-year yields falling 3 basis points each. SpaceX shares fell to the lowest level since their first day of trading ahead of a potential jumbo investment-grade bond sale that could be announced Tuesday. Focal points of US session also include June preliminary PMIs and a 2-year note auction. This week’s Treasury auctions begin at 1pm New York time with $69 billion 2-year note sale, to be followed by 5- and 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday; WI 2-year yield near 4.20% is ~13bp cheaper than the May auction, which stopped on the screws. In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1% to around $77 a barrel. Other assets have been caught up in the equity selloff with spot silver down over 4% and Bitcoin dropping 3%. Today's US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), June preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions indexes (10am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Korea's KOSPI plummeted 9.99%, its steepest drop in more than three months, on Tuesday as overseas investors sold chipmakers following regulatory signals that the sector's rally had gotten overheated. RTRS South Korea’s retail investors are ploughing profits from a world-beating stock market into an overheated property sector, confounding government efforts to cool real estate demand. FT Iran said $12 billion of its frozen funds were set to be released as part of ongoing talks with the US, with the two sides broadly signaling progress in negotiations to formally end their war. BBG The Trump administration and Qatar have warned the EU that it faces a gas supply crunch that would force up prices unless Brussels rewrites planned rules on methane emissions. BBG The yen erased losses after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she spoke with Scott Bessent and that they agreed that “bold action” may be needed. Traders are on high alert for intervention. BBG Euro-area business activity shrank less than anticipated in June. S&P Global’s Composite PMI rose to 49.5 from 48.5, topping estimates but remaining below the 50 mark that indicates growth. BBG The UK’s economy contracted for a second consecutive month, with its PMI slipping to a 14-month low. BBG The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee told American Public Media’s Marketplace he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether price pressures will persist after temporary shocks have dissipated. BBG TSLA logged a more than twofold jump in European monthly sales in May as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker continues to rebuild strength in a region where Chinese rivals are gaining ground. WSJ US Senate passes bipartisan affordable housing bill. Iran War Latest Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said "if the other party does not fulfill its obligations, we should not be expected to unilaterally fulfill our obligations", Iran International reported. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said defensive capabilities and missiles will never be a topic of discussion. US commitment regarding Lebanon is completely clear. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said quadrilateral talks were stopped early in Switzerland due to the witnessing of US threats. Thereafter, exchanges were via a mediator, Mehr reported. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran has no plans to let IAEA inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in the conflict. Iranian President, ahead of trip to Pakistan, said Iran is seeking the full implementation of the clauses that have been signed within the framework of international law, Nour News reported. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will be administered by Iran according to international law. Iranian President Pezeshkian said in phone call to Turkish President Erdogan on Monday that Iran is ready to pursue diplomacy as per international law. Iran Central Bank Governor said Tehran is not obliged to purchase US agricultural goods under current agreements, and states that remaining frozen assets can be used to buy non-sanctioned goods beyond essential items, according to Tasnim. "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Baghdad next Sunday", Al Mayadeen reported citing sources; The meeting will include a briefing on the progress of the talks in Switzerland and the preparations. Iranian Foreign Ministry said "America has issued the necessary license for the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products", Al Jazeera reported. Iranian Ambassador to the UN said any further attacks on Lebanon would be a red line. Iranian Ambassador to the UN said Hormuz talks will be held with Oman. Iranian Ambassador to the UN said there has been good progress in negotiations with the US. "Sources indicate that the Iranian Foreign Minister [Araghchi] will hold separate talks with Pakistani officials", Al Hadath reported. Oman's Foreign Minister said Iranian negotiators reaffirmed their commitment to international law and to ensuring safe, toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Oman's Foreign Minister meets with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf, with the officials discussing regional stability and Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data cited by Al-Arabia showed at least 20 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. One person reportedly killed by Israeli gunfire in a southern Lebanese town, according to Lebanese Civil Defense and a security source - timing unclear. Senior US official tells Al Jazeera that talks between Lebanon and Israel will continue to advance comprehensive peace and a security agreement between the two countries. Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said Israel must act alone against Iran's nuclear program and must maintain military freedom in Lebanon, hopes withdrawal from southern Lebanon will not happen and will do everything to convince PM Netanyahu. Israel military shells and fires at Khan Yunis in Gaza, according to Fars News Agency. Israel's PM, Defence Minister and Military Chief said Israeli military will continue to act to neutralise threats to soldiers and citizens, demolish terrorist infrastructure, and maintain security zone in southern Lebanon, according to a joint statement. Israel's leadership reaffirms that the security of Israeli citizens and IDF troops will remain its overriding priority, with no room for compromise. Israeli forces reportedly violate Syrian territory, conducting house searches in southern outskirts of Quneitra governorate. US-Iran technical talks in Burgenstock had a "breakthrough", talks proceed seemingly in a positive direction, Journalist Mallick reported. US President Trump, on Israel and Lebanon, said "we'll take a look at it"; said he gets problems solved fast, including with Israeli PM Netanyahu. US President Trump said if Iran doesn't stick to agreement, he will do what he has to do. As long as Iran respects us, we are not going to have any trouble. Could restart the blockade quickly if needed. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were subdued with initial choppy price action following the mixed performance stateside, where participants reflected on the progress in US-Iran talks, but communication stocks and the Nasdaq Comp underperformed. KOSPI, -6.9%, led the sell off, moving to a test of 8.5k to the downside. ASX 200 traded little changed for most of the session amid a lack of major fresh catalysts overnight and as the strength in financials and defensives offset the losses in the tech and commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index briefly climbing to a fresh record high before reversing course, and is on track to snap its 8-day win streak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the lacklustre mood in the region and the absence of any major fresh catalysts, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in miners, and digital platforms stocks amid a rotation out of hyperscalers into semiconductors. Top Asian News China's MOFCOM announces measures to stimulate the auto after-sales market; to support the integration and upgrading of the car rental industry. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said will take appropriate action against FX moves if needed. Canada awarded Australia a USD 1.75bln contract for its over-the-horizon radar system, boosting Arctic early warning capabilities, and which marks Australia's largest ever defence export. Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jun) 52.50. Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 54.9 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 54.5). Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 51.2 (Prev. 50.7). Blackstone (BX) President and COO Gray told Nikkei that the firm plans to invest USD 30bln in Japanese data center development over the next three to five years. Large losses in Kospi (-9.9%) crept through to Europe (STOXX 600 -1%) with EU tech leading the losses. No specific headline driver for overnight losses in a typical non-conflict risk-off move (stocks/oil down, fixed/havens bid). As you would expect, South Korean heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix (which account for over 50% of the index) led the declines, both falling 12%. Some analysts point out the mechanical rebalancing from leveraged ETFs exacerbated losses with a large share of the vehicle used to gain Kospi exposure coming as leveraged ETFs. Others point out positioning into Micron earnings due after the close on Wednesday. Given the above, Tech is the worst sectoral performer (bar Basic Resources), the sector posting losses in excess of 3%. The highest weighted chip constituents ASML -5% (Highest weighted in Europe+Tech Sector), Prosus -2.1% and STMicroelectronics -7.3%. For Basic resources, the sector has been dragged lower by declines in metals (Gold -2.5%, Silver -5.5%). Top European News German Chancellor Merz outlines his support for a capital-based pension system, saying it "strengthens the system". German Chancellor Merz confirms plan to push forward with all pension reform proposals. Britain’s biggest business lobby group, CBI, said UK firms are not seeking another Brexit referendum and have little interest in rejoining a customs union with the EU, according to FT. UK's Burnham will seek to soothe markets as he marches on number 10 and will use a speech next week to pledge to grow the economy and commit to Labour's fiscal rules, according to The Times. Burnham is considering Miliband, Streeting and Mahmood for Chancellor. FX G10s are entirely lower against the Buck (bar JPY), as USD attracts haven demand in a textbook risk-off market move (stocks/oil down, fixed/havens bid), signalling the market is gradually moving away from geopolitical trade. As you would expect, Antipodeans underperforms, Aussie fares the worst as metals suffer from the strong Buck, while JPY is the only currency stronger vs the USD after a sharp 30pip move lower as it sits towards 2024 highs. DXY firmer by 0.2% as it attracts haven demand amid tech weakness in Kospi/NQ (see equities at 09:25 BST for analysis). In terms of domestic newsflow, Fed's Goolsbee said services inflation was “a little disturbing”. The data docket is light but begins to pick up today (ADP weekly + PMIs due) heading into Thursday's GDP revisions and PCE data. DXY surpassed Friday’s high of 101.12, now looks to the May peak just below 102. JPY continues to whipsaw around multi-year lows against the Buck, with USD/JPY towards 161.50-162. Japanese officials continue attempts to bolster the Yen, but continue unsuccessful with the Greenback bid. Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama confirmed she spoke with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Monday. Elsewhere, APAC trade saw stronger flash PMI data and mixed results of the latest 5yr JGB auction. GBP is weaker and tracks the firmer Buck with participants awaiting further updates from a likely incoming Burnham premiership. Despite Gilts continuing to outperform peers on optimistic Burnham reporting (Streeting added to Chancellor candidates/Burnham said to announce commitment to Fiscal rules), Miliband still in the picture for Chancellor is viewed by Sterling traders as an unwelcome option. As such, GBP awaits further press reporting and tracks the Buck with Cable remaining at 1.32, EUR/GBP unchanged. ING this morning writes “Regardless of politics, we keep favouring higher EUR/GBP on the back of a dovish view (no hikes) on the Bank of England”. EZ/UK PMIs were mixed (see fixed income for analysis), EUR saw fleeting strength on the French figure, which indicated a cooling of cost pressures; a move which proved fleeting as the German services and composite metric cooled (Some respondents' answers did not eclipse the signing of the US-Iran MoU). Fixed Income A firmer start for fixed income as the complex benefits from the softer energy environment, though the influence of this has diminished amid recent updates from Iran, and the weak risk tone as the KOSPI closed lower by 9.9% and has weighed on European price action, with the European Tech sector lower by over 3%. USTs firmer by seven ticks in 109-06+ to 109-14+ confines, towards but just off highs as the mentioned energy move off lows has seemingly formed a ceiling in fixed or now at least. Ahead, we have the region’s Flash PMIs before 2yr supply. A tap that should benefit from a number of factors. Bunds firmer by just over 10 ticks and are just under that from the 126.74 high. Initially moving on the above, in-line with peers and with no real reaction to the latest pension reform commentary. The main updates, aside from the APAC moves, today have been Flash PMIs for June. Firstly, France’s figures sparked some modest EGB pressure as the components all came in firmer than expected. Internal commentary pointed to a possible peak in price pressures. Thereafter, Germany was below consensus but caveated by the majority of responses coming in before the MoU signing. Nonetheless, encouragingly, the series showed that inflationary pressures had started to ease off. Finally, the EZ figure was mixed and again most responses came before the MoU. But, it already showed that lower energy prices were filtering through to businesses with inputs cost rates and selling price inflation moving lower in June. Again, pointing to a potential price spike peak. Overall, the data chimes with those who believe that expectations for further ECB tightening are overdone. A point arguably added to by the pertinent commentary from President Lagarde on Monday. As such, upcoming hard and survey data will be scoured for confirmation that prices may have peaked which, alongside the stagnation in activity, may well see a dovish repricing in the period ahead. Gilts echoed the above, higher by 35 ticks at best and to a new WTD high of 89.19. Today’s strength also comes from reporting that Burnham will next week give a speech outlining his commitment to the fiscal rules; however, The Times briefing notes that Miliband remains in consideration to be Chancellor, a point that potentially caps any further upside. PMIs for the region were weak, though price commentary was also welcome and chimes with the view that the BoE is on hold for the foreseeable. The Netherlands sold EUR 1.98bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 3.50% 2056 DSL Bond: avg. yield 3.52% (prev. 3.51%). Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.11x (prev. 3.22x), average yield 1.905% (prev. 2.024%). Germany sells EUR 3.807bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.90x (prev. 1.58x), average yield 2.57% (prev. 2.59%), retention 23.86% (prev. 22.80%) Commodities Geopolitical newsflow remains focused on the US-Iran talks, and the sometimes mixed commentary filtering out from the respective officials. As it stands, there does not appear to be any cause for concern, with President Trump and VP Vance both sounding positive about the initial talks; the Iranian side also said good progress has been made. However, looking between the lines reveals some contradictory remarks. On Monday, VP Vance said that Iran would allow the IAEA to inspect nuclear facilities. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that there are no plans to let inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in the conflict; the nuance of “sites targeted in the conflict”, potentially offers some hints to the inner workings of the proceedings between the US and Iran. Do note that the Iranian President is visiting Pakistan today. The biggest risk to the talks is Israeli actions in Lebanon. Several high-ranking Israeli officials have suggested that Israel will continue its military operations in Lebanon. Comments which come ahead of the US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks, which are set to begin today. A confab which spans over a couple of days, and focuses on finalising “pilot zones” within southern Lebanon and long-lasting peace. Crude benchmarks traded sideways for much of the APAC session, before then moving to lows heading into the European cash open. Since, WTI and Brent have bounced a touch off lows, to currently trade towards the mid-point of the days range. In more detail, WTI Aug’26 (-0.5%) sits within a USD 72.48-74.45/bbl range and Brent Aug’26 (-0.6%) holds within a 76.43-78.23/bbl range. Spot gold (-2%) extends lower amidst the continued hawkish mood in markets, which have kept the USD elevated. For gold specifically, a number of sell-side banks have cut their price forecasts for spot gold. On Monday, Goldman Sachs cut their year-end target to USD 4,900/oz (prev. USD 5,200/oz). Its model focused on the Fed, whereby every 50bps worth of easing adds c. USD 120/oz of support to spot gold. Most recently, Deutsche Bank cut its gold forecast by 22%. Today, the yellow metal holds at the bottom end of a USD 4,091 to 4,198/oz range; it may find support at a recent low of USD 4,023/oz, if the pressure continues. Base metals follow the downbeat risk tone seen across broader markets. 3M LME copper is lower by c. 1.8% and holds within a USD 13,396.35-13,671/t range. Rabobank lowers its Q3 Brent price forecast to USD 79/bbl (from USD 103/bbl), and Q4 to USD 78/bbl (from USD 93/bbl); sees Brent averaging USD 74.50/bbl in 2027, and USD 71/bbl in 2028. US Department of Agriculture reported a new case of screwworm in a Texas goat, taking total number of domestic detections to 16 cases. Central Banks Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said inflation is well above target and going the wrong way, adds need evidence this inflation is temporary and services inflation is a little disturbing. said:. We haven't had stagflation shock, and the job market has been stable. Fed Chair Warsh's approach is let's have less speculation about rates, less forward guidance, while Goolsbee said he is pretty sympathetic to that approach. ECB's Kazimir said they are data-dependent, but the direction for policy is clear. ECB's Lane said that inflation risks being above 2% for some time; increase in energy prices is expected to keep inflation well above target into H1'27. Remains attentive to both sides of the outlook. Energy shock is feeding through to broader inflation. labour market resilience, solid household balance sheets and public investment should support activity. ECB's Escriva said service-sector inflation is showing very strong persistence. Geopolitics Russia and Ukraine may swap Prisoners of War soon, TASS reported. Ukraine's capital Kyiv issues an air raid alerts and authorities ask people to seek shelter. North Korea leader Kim Jong-un said North Korea will further assert its status and role as a nuclear power, adds will accelerate broader plans, enhance nuclear arms technology and develop water deterrence capabilities. accused US and South Korea carrying out the most dangerous provocations through nuclear war machinery. To accelerate building of 10,000-ton strategic guided missile cruiser. China's Beihai Maritime Safety Administration announced that parts of the Beibu Gulf will be closed to navigation due to military training from 11:00-12:00 Beijing time on June 23rd. US Event Calendar 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54.6, prior 55.1 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.1, prior 50.7 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.1, prior 51.5 10:00 am: Jun Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 8, prior 13 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap When I started in financial markets in 1995, Alan Greenspan was a towering presence and arguably the first Fed Chair to become a global rockstar. At that point, he was eight years into what would become a 19-year tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve. However, my own memories pale in comparison to those of my colleague Peter Hooper. Peter joined the Fed in 1973, later moving to DB in 1999, and worked closely with Greenspan for over 50 years. Peter has written a thoughtful remembrance following Greenspan’s passing yesterday at the age of 100. Drawing on first-hand experience as a colleague at the Federal Reserve and later recruiting him to be an adviser at Deutsche Bank, Peter highlights Greenspan’s intense curiosity, instinct for data and markets, and ability to identify structural shifts such as the 1990s productivity boom. In many ways, Greenspan was ahead of the data—something Kevin Warsh is attempting to emulate today—so there are clear parallels between the eras. It is a personal and insightful tribute from someone who had a ringside seat throughout Greenspan’s remarkable career, and it is well worth reading in full on the DB Research Institute site. Moving onto the remembering another landmark in history, 10 years ago today, those of us on this island marched to the polls to decide whether we wanted to stay in the EU or not. Ironically, I had a long weekend planned in the French Alps and left for the airport immediately after voting and arrived to a fierce thunderstorm in the mountains and news that the UK had voted to leave. It all felt fairly biblical and instead of enjoying a break I spent all night and the next 3 days glued to my work laptop. To mark the anniversary Sanjay and Shreyas have published a piece entitled "Brexit 10 years on: What's worked, what hasn't, what's next?" See it here ahead of our first in-person Deutsche Bank Research Institute event on Thursday reviewing the topic and all things UK related given the huge events of recent days. We may still be able to squeeze you in. The irony around the anniversary is that the shadow of Brexit partly claimed another UK Prime Minister yesterday with Keir Starmer resigning and heralding in what will be the 7th Prime Minister in that subsequent decade. The only viable candidate now seems to be Andy Burnham, who won last week’s by-election in Makerfield, after rival challenger Wes Streeting endorsed him yesterday to be leader. So, although nominations for the Labour leadership are set to open on July 9, currently it looks highly likely that Andy Burnham is the only candidate who would get more than 20% of MPs backing him to stand, meaning that a formal contest would be avoided. That’s reminiscent of when Labour last changed leaders in government back in 2007, when Chancellor Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair without a contest. Under this timetable, Burnham could become the PM as soon as mid-July. Against this backdrop, UK assets responded relatively positively, as it looks like a period of extended uncertainty and a potential summer leadership contest have been removed. Speculation that Streeting may get the job of Chancellor was seen as a positive as well given his more moderate tendencies. The pound sterling was the strongest performing G10 currency on the day, up +0.14% against the US Dollar, whilst yields on 2yr (-4.5bps) and 10yr (-3.4bps) gilts moved in line with their European counterparts inspite of the political upheaval. Moreover, the FTSE 100 was up +0.72%, again similar to the STOXX 600’s +0.58% advance. Another G7 country in the news is Japan and this morning the currency is fairly flat after seeing a strong spike yesterday afternoon London time after it got within a whisker of hitting 40-year lows. It hit 161.93 versus a low of 161.96 in July 2024. Beyond that you have to go back to December 1986 to see weaker levels. There was speculation over imminent BoJ intervention with JNN reporting an online emergency meeting between Finance Minster Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday. This meeting has been confirmed by Katayama this morning, who stated that the US and Japan are aligned on FX policy. This morning it's hovering remarkably quietly at 161.60 given all the noise. Less quiet are Asian equities which are falling on tech weakness. The KOSPI (-6.41%) is leading the declines, followed by the Nikkei (-1.66%), Hang Seng (-1.16%), Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.26%). S&P 500 (-0.66%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.19%) futures are also weak with the tech sell-off dominating. Early morning data showed that Japan's private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in June, driven by strong manufacturing output and a return to growth in the services sector, although firms faced the sharpest rise in input costs in nearly four years. The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in June while the services PMI climbed to 51.8 from 50.0, indicating a renewed expansion in business activity after stagnating in May. As a result, the flash composite PMI, advanced to 52.5 from 51.1, marking the strongest pace of overall private-sector growth since March. This all follows mixed markets yesterday, as tech worries overpowered investor optimism about progress in the US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. So that meant the S&P 500 slipped -0.37%, with the Nasdaq (-1.32%) and Magnificent 7 (-2.17%) posting even steeper losses, dragged down by declines by Alphabet (-4.99%) and Amazon (-4.75%). Those equity losses were compounded by the latest rise in Treasury yields yesterday, as investors continued to price in a more hawkish Fed. Indeed, yesterday saw markets price in a 98% chance of a rate hike by the September meeting (up from 93% on Friday), and the 2yr yield (+4.8bps) closed at a 16-month high of 4.23%. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield was up +5.5bps to 4.51%, and significantly, the 10yr real yield (+8.0bps) hit a one-year high of 2.26%. That rise in real yields was something Henry looked at in a note yesterday (link here), exploring why markets haven’t rallied as much as might have been expected given the US-Iran deal and the slump in oil prices in the last two weeks. Speaking of the Iran war, there were fresh signs of progress in the negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance saying that the weekend talks were “very, very good”. That follows comments from the Iranian side, who had previously said in the small hours of Monday that there’d been major progress to end the war in Lebanon. Moreover, the US issued a 60-day sanctions waiver to allow Iran to sell its oil on the international market, which was seen as one of Tehran’s demands for implementing last week’s interim deal. So that backdrop saw oil prices come down, with Brent crude (-3.31%) closing at a 3-month low of $77.90/bbl, whilst WTI (-2.32%) also fell to $74.82/bbl. Turning back to Europe, ahead of this morning's flash PMIs, ECB President Lagarde said yesterday that she saw no more need for the ECB to have a “forceful response” to the Iran War. In comments to lawmakers, Lagarde said she saw inflation returning to target over the medium term, saying that the ECB saw “no evidence yet of de-anchoring of inflation expectations or second-round effects” that warrants a “more forceful policy response at this stage.” This contrasted with some of the more hawkish messaging from the ECB last week, which saw markets dial up their conviction of further tightening this year. Those comments supported a rally in European government bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.4bps), OATs (-3.4bps) and BTPs (-4.3bps) all coming down. And there were larger declines at the front-end, with the 2yr German yield down -4.4bps as investors dialled back the likelihood of aggressive ECB rate cuts this year. Indeed, markets were pricing 32bps of ECB hikes by the December meeting at the close, down -4.5bps on the previous day. Otherwise, equities also rose, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) making a fresh gain, while the DAX (+0.62%) also rose. The CAC (-0.25%) struggled again and has been struggling this year largely due to its outsized luxury stocks weighting. To the day ahead now, we’ll get June flash PMIs for the US, UK, Eurozone, Germany, and France. We'll also see US June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, France June business confidence and May retail sales. Earnings include FedEx and Carnival. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/23/2026 - 07:59
Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US
Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday. “That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb. Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.
US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap
Advertisement US-Iran peace deal US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Peace Deal News Live Updates: US-Iran diplomacy gained momentum after a marathon round of talks in Switzerland produced what mediators Pakistan and Qatar described as a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days. US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country and work on mechanisms covering frozen Iranian assets, regional ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week, while technical teams will remain engaged even after Iran's top negotiators returned to Tehran following 18 hours of intensive negotiations. The talks also established a communication channel to help ensure safe commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz and a mechanism aimed at preventing renewed fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remained visible. Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of failing to uphold commitments to halt fighting in Lebanon. However, mediators said discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Pakistan on Tuesday in a trip expected to focus on bilateral cooperation and follow-up discussions on Islamabad's mediation efforts. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon largely held, marking the longest lull in violence in three months of conflict. Lebanese officials reported near-total adherence to the truce despite isolated incidents, while Israeli leaders insisted any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot use future financial relief to support military activities or regional proxy groups. Follow IndiaToday.in for the latest updates....Read More Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to arrive in Pakistan on a one-day visit on Tuesday. (File Photo: Press TV) 2 Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Deal: Iranian President to visit Pakistan Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a one-day visit to Pakistan on Tuesday, Iranian officials said. Habib Abbasi, director-general of public relations at the presidential office, said the trip will focus on implementing previous agreements and exploring new trade opportunities. Pezeshkian is also expected to "express appreciation" for Pakistan's role in mediating between Iran and the United States, according to Tasnim news agency. Jun 22, 2026 19:14 IST US-Iran Deal: Here's what happened so far - US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran made significant progress, with Tehran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors, establish mechanisms for handling frozen assets and support efforts to manage regional ceasefires. - Speaking after negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week and confirmed that technical talks would continue in the coming days and weeks. - Iran’s senior negotiating team departed Switzerland for Tehran after 18 hours of intensive discussions, while technical experts remained behind to continue work on the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. - Pakistan and Qatar, which mediated the talks, said Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days and described the first round of negotiations as encouraging. - The two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to help prevent clashes in Lebanon and create a communications channel to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies. - The talks followed an interim agreement reached last week and continued despite renewed tensions after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and Tehran warned Washington over its rhetoric. - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for a one-day trip. Iranian officials said he would discuss bilateral cooperation and express appreciation for Islamabad’s role in facilitating US-Iran diplomacy. - A ceasefire in Lebanon largely held on Monday, marking the longest period of relative calm in nearly three months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, although isolated incidents were still reported. - Lebanese security officials said adherence to the ceasefire had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, despite reports of limited Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon and drone flights over Beirut. - The conflict in Lebanon has remained a major test for the interim US-Iran agreement, with Tehran previously accusing Washington of failing to ensure an end to hostilities and briefly reimposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. - Vance said progress had also been made toward reducing tensions in Lebanon, while negotiators worked to establish safeguards aimed at preventing future escalation. - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development programme under the broader diplomatic framework. - Oil prices, which surged after tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fell further after the latest round of talks, easing concerns about global supply disruptions. - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the negotiations as constructive and said the first round of talks had concluded successfully, laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement. - Israeli officials signalled support for a diplomatic resolution but stressed that any final deal must ensure Iran cannot use financial relief or released assets to fund military activities or regional proxy groups.
Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks
Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers: Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion. The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors. “Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.” Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools. “Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.” The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring. In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress. Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting. Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI. European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses. “We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian. In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback. In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%. US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel: Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other: Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month. Top Asian News The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model Top European News UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar 9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon! Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile. However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight. 10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed. The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue. On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK. Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here. In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening. Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data. Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others. In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday). Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side. Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%. But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%. That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%. Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record. Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%. But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%. That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%. Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26
Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile"
Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile" U.S. and Iranian negotiators concluded a lengthy initial round of technical talks, backed by Qatar and Pakistan, with early progress reported. Still, the diplomatic road to a permanent peace deal remains fragile. For now, despite Tehran declaring on Sunday that the Strait was "closed," millions of barrels of crude continue to exit the Persian Gulf through the critical maritime chokepoint. Bloomberg reports that five laden oil tankers carrying a combined 8 million barrels were seen entering or moving through the strait along the southern part of the Hormuz near Oman's coast before switching off their transponders. One tanker reappeared hours later in the Gulf of Oman, marking a safe passage. The transits suggest CENTCOM's claim that U.S. forces can keep the Omani-side corridor of the maritime chokepoint open, despite Iran's assertion that only the northern, Tehran-approved route is permitted. Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets," CENTCOM wrote on X on Saturday morning. Kpler: Hormuz uptick remains fragile Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons,… pic.twitter.com/2YnT6kTnU3 — Kpler (@Kpler) June 22, 2026 Windward: 🚨 Strait of Hormuz Status Update | June 22 Windward tracked 25 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 hours: 10 inbound and 15 outbound. Notable traffic: → Multiple OFAC-sanctioned tankers linked to Iran's sanctions program transiting outbound,… pic.twitter.com/D4Czk5ygVl — Windward (@WindwardAI) June 22, 2026 Several India-linked tankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude appeared to have used the Iran-approved northern route near Qeshm Island, possibly before Iran's latest closure announcement on Sunday. A separate report from Bloomberg says four liquefied natural gas tankers - either owned or chartered by Qatar - transited the narrow waterway as the restart of Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export plant, begins to ramp up. Even Iran has ramped up oil exports, as three US-sanctioned supertankers (Elva, Virgo, and Vigor) entered the Hormuz chokepoint earlier this morning. Those tankers are destined for Singapore, with likely ship-to-ship transfers slated for the end delivery in China. This comes as the US lifts the blockade on the waterway against Iran. Bloomberg data shows that total ship transits (using AIS data) in the maritime chokepoint, whether east-west or west-east, have steadily increased since an interim peace deal between the US and Iran was signed earlier last week. Citi analyst Luis Costa told clients earlier that "the dominant global macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict and its partial resolution. Announcement of the interim Hormuz MOU last week set off a cascading repricing across oil, EM FX, inflation expectations, and rate paths." Brent crude futures traded in the $79 a barrel range early Monday, while WTI futures were around $75. Talk on Hormuz normalization this morning comes from Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart: "The 14-point 'peace-in-our-time MoU' unblocks some 150+ million barrels of stranded crude oil, now available for immediate sale." Related: Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz On Friday, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July." Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 07:45
Caught on camera: Qatar’s PM snubs JD Vance in viral video; What went wrong?
A viral video from high-stakes US-Iran talks in Switzerland appears to show JD Vance being seemingly overlooked by Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and social media wasted no time calling it a “snub.” The clip, widely circulated online, shows the Qatari Prime Minister walking into a reception area where global leaders had gathered. Instead of greeting Vance, who stood nearby, Sheikh Mohammed moved past him and warmly embraced Shehbaz Sharif. That single move, intentional or not, quickly became a talking point. While the internet framed it as an awkward diplomatic slight, there’s no official confirmation that it was a deliberate snub. Still, in the world of global politics, even a few seconds of footage can shape narratives. The incident unfolded during crucial negotiations involving the US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan, aimed at building on a fragile ceasefire framework. Qatar has been playing a key mediating role, describing the ongoing process as “cautiously optimistic” but far from final. Qatar snubs JD Vance. America is a laughing stock. pic.twitter.com/O1QflIqh0V— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) June 21, 2026 Meanwhile, tensions remain high. Donald Trump issued strong warnings to Iran, stating: “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we'll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Watch Qatar snub Vance. So embarrassing. pic.twitter.com/RWSpcsL5IU— 🇺🇸 Pamela Geller 🇮🇱 (@PamelaGeller) June 21, 2026 JD Vance got the cold shoulder from Iranian officials in Switzerland.— ᗰᗩƳᖇᗩ (@LePapillonBlu2) June 21, 2026 No one respects this administration! pic.twitter.com/Vld9tYIL2a This was humiliation. No one in modern history has made America wait and beg for negotiations. This was the moment JD Vance should have returned to Washington. The Islamic regime did this on purpose. Trump, if you don't understand politics, you should at least understand… pic.twitter.com/NVWAxr8NMH— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) June 21, 2026 Qatar snub JD Vance. I love this for him. pic.twitter.com/YFcnEziFZd— Sarrah Bellus (@sarrah_bellus) June 21, 2026 The “snub” wasn’t the only eyebrow-raising moment. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reportedly avoided direct interaction with Vance as well, briefly greeting Sharif before leaving. ALSO READ| Brigitte Macron rejects Donald Trump’s kiss in awkward Versailles moment, video goes viral; Watch
Iran Declares Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Vessel Traffic Has Fallen to Single Digits As Mines, Insurance Gaps and Safety Concerns Hamper Restart Iran’s ‘renewed closure of Hormuz’ CNN reported onJune 20 (local time) that although Iran declared it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz again, ships passing through the strait had already virtually disappeared. Despite the United States and Iran signing an agreement to end the war, forecasts suggest that it will take months for shipping traffic and crude oil flows to normalize. According to the report, the Iranian military announced on the day that it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz again, citing ongoing fighting between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Since this announcement came one day before the United States and Iran were set to hold end-of-war negotiations in Switzerland on June 21, it has emerged as a test of the agreement’s implementation and a variable in the negotiations. However, making the blockade declaration effectively meaningless, the number of ships passing through the strait had already dwindled to single digits. According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, 25 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz as of June 18, which was the highest number since Iran briefly allowed commercial navigation in mid-April. But upon the news that the initial negotiations between the United States and Iran to coordinate the details of the agreement had fallen through, the number of passing ships dropped back to single digits on April 19. This is still extremely minimal compared to the 100 to 120 oil tankers that traveled daily between Iran and Oman before the war. Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, said, “It is not a situation where a sudden mass exodus is occurring,” adding, “Although traffic has increased somewhat, it is not at a significant level, and it is not yet the stage for a ‘first mover’ to emerge.” Since the outbreak of the war, approximately 500 ships, including 220 oil tankers, are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. Analyst Smith predicted, “It will take weeks just for about 120 oil tankers loaded with oil to get out, and it will take even more time for 100 empty oil tankers to fill up with crude oil and set sail.” The biggest reason shipowners are hesitating to operate is safety concerns. Jakob Larsen, head of maritime safety and security at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), an international shipowners’ association, stated, “Despite the signing of the ceasefire agreement, the security situation for the shipping industry remains unstable,” and “The central part of the strait is heavily mined, making navigation impossible, and only the coastal routes close to Oman and Iran are known to be free of mines.” However, he added that even these coastal sections are dangerous to navigate due to congestion and the risk of accidents. Along with the ships, an estimated 20,000 crew members are also trapped on board. Ben Bailey, director at the seafarers’ support organization Mission to Seafarers, conveyed that many sailors want to leave despite the anxiety over departure safety, saying, “The expression ‘cautious optimism’ would be accurate.” The insurance void is also a burden for shipowners. Marine insurers withdrew their “war risk” coverage for damages caused by attacks and mines at the beginning of the war, and they have not restored it for most customers despite the ceasefire agreement. This means that if they suffer damage while navigating hazardous sections without coverage, they cannot receive compensation. Independent oil analyst Tom Kloza pointed out, “It was not only Iran that closed Hormuz, but also insurance companies like Lloyd’s of London.” In addition to this, there are numerous practical hurdles, such as the seaworthiness of ships that have been anchored for over three months, securing fuel and supplies, and removing barnacles attached to the hulls. Director Bailey pointed out, “It is not a simple matter of saying the green light has turned on at the traffic light, so everyone can just start their engines and go.” Even if ships immediately resume operation, the normalization of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf is a separate issue. A significant portion of regional production and refining stopped when oil tanker traffic was cut off early in the war, and restarting it will also take time. Ultimately, trust that the peace agreement will be maintained in the long term is the key. Analyst Kloza said, “We do not know the answer to that,” adding, “It might be considered a safe sea someday, but there is a long way to go to reach that stage.”
Iran live updates: US and Iran agree to roadmap for 'final deal' within 60 days
President Donald Trump announced "major combat operations" against Iran on Feb. 28, with massive joint U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting military, government and infrastructure sites. Delegations from the United States and Iran arrived over the weekend at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, where they entered negotiations aimed at a war-ending deal based on a memorandum of understanding signed last week by both countries. Iranian delegation leaves talks, heading back to Tehran The Iranian delegation in Switzerland has left the talks and is heading back to Tehran, Iran's state media reported early on Monday, citing the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, who is leading the Iranian delegation, "left the building where the negotiations were held on Monday, following approximately 18 hours of intensive dialogue and consultations," Iran's state broadcaster reported. -ABC News' Victoria Beaule 41 minutes ago US and Iran to seek 'final deal' within 60 days under newly agreed roadmap The United States and Iran agreed on Sunday to negotiate toward a war-ending deal within a 60-day timeframe, according to Pakistan and Qatar, which are mediating the ongoing talks in Switzerland. The delegations agreed on Sunday to create a "High Level" committee to "provide political oversight" for the talks, and that new committee in turn agreed to a 60-day roadmap, the mediators said in a joint statement early on Monday. The fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, remained a key point for Iranian negotiators going into Sunday’s talks, officials in Tehran said. The U.S. and Iran agreed on Sunday to a “deconfliction cell,” a group that will include officials from Tehran and Washington alongside Lebanese officials. That group will seek "to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MoU," the mediators said. Whether the "deconfliction cell" will be able to make headway in stopping the fighting in Lebanon will mark the "1st real test" for the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday. Israel’s defense minister said in a statement on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces did not plan to leave the areas in southern Lebanon where they’re fighting Hezbollah. Araghchi otherwise praised Pakistan and Qatar for delivering "major progress" for their efforts in ending the war. "Technical talks will continue for the remainder of the week at the Burgenstock resort on all issues," Pakistan and Qatar said in their joint statement. "The mediating parties will continue to do their utmost to ensure that the negotiations continue to be conducted in a constructive atmosphere with the aim of reaching a final deal."
High oil prices drive a surge in Chinese electric vehicle sales, but charging networks lag behind
High oil prices drive a surge in Chinese electric vehicle sales, but charging networks lag behind The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as fuel prices surge The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as soaring fuel prices push drivers towards electric vehicles, even as charging infrastructure lags behind a wave of imports. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping of about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, first hitting Asia — the main destination for the fuels — followed by Africa. This shock accelerated a trend that was already spreading across the developing world. In April, global exports of Chinese EVs hit a record $9.4 billion, according to an analysis by think tank Ember of Chinese customs data. Shipments surged to countries such as Australia, Brazil and regions like Southeast Asia and East Africa. China exported about 435,000 passenger EVs and plug-in hybrids in May, more than double from a year earlier, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers. As fuel costs rise, more drivers are switching to EVs to save money, while governments from Laos to Ethiopia are embracing electrification to curb oil imports and reduce costs of fuel subsidies. But faster EV adoption is outpacing the expansion of charging networks. Governments and state-owned utilities in Africa are taking a leading role in building them — a model analysts say could help other emerging markets, like Asia, speed the shift away from fossil fuels. When a nation lacks sufficient charging infrastructure and EV fleet size, it is a “classic chicken-and-egg problem” regarding what comes first, said Paul Gong, head of UBS bank’s China automotive industry research. “At that stage, government support for infrastructure could help accelerate adoption,” he said. Fuel shock drives EV use in Asia and Africa Across the developing world, drivers are looking beyond the gas pump. In Southeast Asia, imports of Chinese EVs have surged in Thailand, Laos and the Philippines. In May, Laos banned the import of fuel-powered vehicles for the rest of 2026 to cut oil import costs and encourage the EV shift. Africa imported around 44,000 Chinese EVs in 2025, a 130% jump from the year before, according to Chinese Commerce Ministry data. Across Asia and Africa, transport is one of the largest household expenses. Limited public transit, long commutes and a reliance on private vehicles make families vulnerable to volatile fuel prices. In South Africa, transportation accounts for nearly a fifth of household spending, according to a 2024 study by Stellenbosch University in South Africa's Western Cape province. So, as fuel prices surge, global interest in EVs has been growing, said Mark Wakefield, with the consultancy AlixPartners. One in four new cars sold worldwide last year were electric, according to the International Energy Agency. Global electric car sales are expected to grow further in 2026 and reach 23 million, making up nearly 30% of all cars sold worldwide, according to the IEA’s latest EV outlook. “In the next five years, we will accelerate (our) overseas expansion,” said Jerry Gan, CEO of Geely Auto, one of China's biggest automakers, at a company event in March as the auto group makes inroad into regions like Southeast Asia including selling EVs. Chinese automakers supplied around 60% of electric cars sold globally, the IEA said. They have also been targeting Europe, Africa and Latin America. In Vietnam, automaker VinFast also logged stronger sales. Demand from Southeast Asia helped drive a 42% year-on-year increase in the company's January-March quarterly revenue. On most mornings, Nguyen Thien Bao threads his VinFast electric motorbike through the jammed traffic of Vietnam’s capital Hanoi — ferrying passengers and deliveries. The EV bike has sharply cut his expenses as fuel prices rise. “Before, so much of my income went into fuel,” he said. “Now, I can actually save some money.” Charging stations aren't keeping up But while EV imports are booming, charging infrastructure is still lagging even as installations have accelerated. Thailand, for instance, has around 4,600 public charging locations to serve more than 424,000 battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, according to the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand — around one for every 92 vehicles. The country currently has roughly 12,000 public chargers, the IEA said. Chitsanupong Nuamnorm's solution is to keep his gasoline-fueled Mazda 2 for weekend trips, although the Chinese-made MG4 EV he bought on Feb. 27 — the day before the Iran war began — is saving him a lot of money. Yutthana Samranwong, a 54-year-old driver in Thailand’s northern Phitsanulok province, says booking online for public charging ports to keep his MG4 EV running is a gamble. “It's a bit of a headache,” said Samranwong, who sometimes works with the Grab ride-hailing and delivery service. In Bangkok, strained charging networks are prompting some drivers to consider returning to fuel-powered cars. In Malaysia, public fast chargers were up more than 70% in 2025, according to the IEA, after the government rolled out incentives to including a tax break for operators of charging points that meet certain investment criteria. Indonesia has more than 4,500 public charging stations set up the state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. Ethiopia, which has banned non-EV imports, had only around a dozen charging stations as of mid-2025, and the government estimates it needs more than 1,170 stations to meet rising demand. In the capital Addis Ababa, 40 stations are under construction, according to the state electricity utility. “In developing markets, affordability can accelerate the shift, but the pace of adoption will still depend heavily on infrastructure, power reliability and use case,” said Chris Liu, with the technology research and advisory group Omdia. State utilities take the wheel to build charging stations In Indonesia, more than 4,500 public chargers have been deployed by its state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. African countries also are increasingly turning to state-owned utilities to build EV charging networks, betting public investment can solve one of the biggest obstacles to electric vehicle adoption. “Utilities are recognizing that electric mobility will become a meaningful source of future electricity demand,” said Ndia Magadagela, co-founder and CEO of Everlectric, a South African commercial EV leasing company. There are around 2,000 public EV charging stations in Africa, with South Africa accounting for the largest share. State-controlled utility Kenya Power plans to build 44 charging stations within the next year. But building networks of charging stations is difficult in developing markets, according to Omidia's Liu, who said grid connections and maintenance are key issues. While BYD, for example, is expanding its ultrafast EV charging network in places like Europe, large Chinese automakers typically may have relatively little incentive to build networks outside China, he said. State-owned utilities, therefore, can play a larger role in this, according to Liu, since they are closely tied to a country’s grid planning, electricity pricing and distribution capacity. “You need charging infrastructure to support an even larger fleet size,” said Gong, the auto analyst from UBS. ___ Olingo reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Delgado reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal contributed to this report. ___ The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.