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NYT: Washington warned Tehran Israel was plotting to kill Araghchi, Ghalibaf
NYT: Washington warned Tehran Israel was plotting to kill Araghchi, Ghalibaf The Trump administration feared Israel could assassinate Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who were involved in ceasefire negotiations in April, The New York Times has reported. The newspaper said that Washington warned Tehran through governments in the region about the possible assassination attempt and urged Israel not to proceed when it learnt that at least Ghalibaf had been placed on the target list. The report described one incident in April in which Ghalibaf's flight back from Islamabad was diverted after Iranian security officials detected what they believed were Israeli fighter jets entering Iranian airspace. US officials believed such an attack would have derailed the diplomacy and risked reigniting the conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States. The newspaper reported that Iranian officials sought assurances from Washington, through Pakistani and Qatari intermediaries, that Israel would not attack negotiators during diplomatic engagements.
Gold Price Trends: Q2 2026 Review and Forecast
The gold price experienced strong volatility in the second quarter of 2026. It traded in a range of US$3,960 to US$4,850 per ounce during a period that saw the Iran war drag on longer than the Trump administration had expected, and the US Federal Reserve enter a new era under Chair Kevin Warsh. As Q3 begins, Iran still has its trump card — the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil flows. Even if a peace deal is reached soon, the Fed will have to grapple with sticky inflation. Is gold a safe-haven asset investors turn to when times are tough, or is the precious metal serving another role in a tumultuous macroeconomic environment? Does it have enough runway in the remainder of the year to retake all-time highs? Or will we see gold slide further beyond the US$4,000 floor of support? The Investing News Network (INN) turned togold marketexperts to answer these questions and gain insight into what moved the yellow metal's price in the second quarter. What happened to the gold price in Q2? "(Gold) had a difficult second quarter after a strong start to the year," Eugenia Mykuliak, founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, told INN via email. “The main driver has been a stronger US dollar combined with persistently elevated treasury yields, which reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets and prompted investors to unwind some of the enthusiasm that had built up during the first quarter.” Gold began Q2 with a close of US$4,699.55 on April 1, and reached its peak daily close on April 14 at US$4,840. For much of the period, gold was impacted by the belief that an end to the US-Iran war was on the horizon. On April 8, the Trump administration made plenty of fanfare about its proposed two week ceasefire arrangement, which involved Iran agreeing to allow safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, lower-than-expected producer price index (PPI) data for March gave gold a boost. Since producer costs are passed on to consumers, PPI is an important inflationary signal to the Fed. Chart via the Investing News Network. Gold price, Q2 2026. Gold's upward trajectory didn’t last long, however, and the second half of April was much more volatile. On April 20, Iran threatened retaliation following reports that the US Navy had seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting surge in oil prices benefited both treasury yields and the US dollar at the expense of non-yielding gold. Alongside the high-stakes US-Iran conflict, the confirmation hearing for Warsh signaled a hawkish shift at the Fed. By the next day, gold had slipped to a close of US$4,720.56. The following week, hopes of a peace deal had evaporated, and the Fed had decided to hold interest rates steady. On April 29, the price of gold fell as low as US$4,510.62 in morning trade. Gold continued to test the US$4,500 floor of support in early May with a close of US$4,519. 53 on the fourth day of the month. Battling through the volatility of shifting US-Iran tensions, Trump’s social media posts, cooling energy prices and sticky inflation data, the yellow metal experienced a brief rally beginning on May 5; it peaked on May 11 at a close of US$4,768.39. From there, the second half of May saw gold fighting to maintain the psychological US$4,500 support level amid a broaderglobal marketselloff. Gold found some support on rumors that the US had offered Iran a possible temporary waiver on oil sanctions in return for ending the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Hopes of a more lasting peace quickly faded once again, and the threat of higher oil prices continued to stoke fears of higher inflation. By May 27, the metal had sunk to a close of US$4,447.74. The gold price suffered a dramatic slide in the first half of June as a fresh batch of US economic data revealed that elevated energy prices were beginning to speed up inflation. The precious metal fell to its lowest close of the quarter at US$4,071.38 on June 11. A wave of short selling gave gold a technical boost, and it also benefited from reports of the Trump administration’s proposed US-Iran accord. Gold had rebounded back above the US$4,300 level by June 17. Speaking to INN in a mid-June interview, Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, said he was surprised Trump’s peace deal announcements can carry so much weight for gold investors at this point in the conflict. “I've been shocked at the extent to which precious metals market participants and others in equity and bond markets have paid any attention to what this guy says,” said Christian, who discussed how this latest peace agreement is bound to fall apart, adding that the Iranians have Trump over a barrel (of oil) given the upcoming midterm elections. The price of gold was soon pushed back down to close at US$4,209.80 on June 18 after the Fed, led by new Chair Warsh, held rates steady yet again. Continuing on down, the yellow metal breached the key support level of US$4,000 in morning trade on June 24, going below that point for first time since November 2025. Gold also faced pressure as tech stocks took a hit on uncertainty concerning the massive costs of artificial intelligence infrastructure and whether this spending will generate actual profits. The price of gold closed out the quarter on June 30 at US$4,007.69, a loss of nearly 15 percent from April 1. Gold, Iran and US monetary policy In Q2, the most notable drivers of the gold price were the impact of the Iran war, the rising inflation that has complicated the Fed's path forward and the resulting strength in the US dollar and treasury yields. Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset came into question during the quarter — instead of rising, the precious metal didn’t react favorably to tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. “Typically, gold does act as a hedge against geopolitical risk, a hedge against uncertainty, but I think what made this war unique is that obviously it's tied to oil prices and energy prices, and so ... the idea that energy prices are going to continue to stay higher for longer, that puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates,” explained David Nicholas, co-founder of XFunds, in a mid-June interview with INN. “The odds of a rate cut happening this year actually completely reversed after oil prices headed higher, and that led to a stronger dollar. And so all of that really put pressure on gold,” he added. Has the Iran war permanently reversed the course of gold’s bull market? Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum and co-author of the "In Gold We Trust" report, doesn’t think so. While the conflict’s escalation into a stalemate has caused the yellow metal to reverse course, Stoeferle believes thegold marketwas due for a healthy correction, and this latest downturn is a normal part of a structural bull market and represents a buying opportunity. “I think the market was looking for an excuse, and I think that the whole Iran war was basically an excuse for that, for taking profits,” he told INN in a late May interview. “My view is that after this big run up, we have to find some sort of a new price equilibrium. I think for gold it's between US$4,000 to US$4,300. That's where we want to be aggressive buyers.” In the last few weeks of the quarter, the focus for gold buyers has shifted from the changing battle lines of the Iran war to the direction of central bank monetary policy. “Gold itself turned away from geopolitics per se and started looking at everything through the prism of rising interest rates, and that's been the most recent factor to keep it under pressure,” Rhona O'Connell, StoneX's head of market analysis, EMEA and Asia, explained in an INN interview in late June. O’Connell understands why a fall from more than US$5,500 to around US$4,000 would havegold marketwatchers “scratching their heads." She believes there are several pieces to the puzzle. One is simply that by early in the first quarter of the year, thegold markethad become “too crowded," with buying “way overdone,” so once the price did start coming down there were many speculators with stop loss orders who had to exit. Another factor she discussed was “the meltdown in equities” as the looming threat of higher-for-longer interest rates and rising bond yields pressured the broader stock market. O’Connell also attributed gold’s steep fall this quarter to a shift in the metal’s role as a safe-haven asset for uncertain times to an easily liquidated means for mitigating risk in other areas of an investor’s portfolio. “The question that I and my peer group have to parry on a regular basis is, if (gold is) a safe haven, why isn't it going up when everything else is in trouble? And the answer is because it's an insurance policy,” she said. “It's the one asset which is no one else's liability, or at least the one currency that is no one else's liability, because it's international and it's not issued by a specific central bank. It's very liquid.” Gold ETF outflows slow from previous quarter Investors stepped away from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in March as the price fell, and while their flight continued into the second quarter, it didn't happen at the same pace. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, shared data from the World Gold Council (WGC) with INN via email, outlining that cumulative net flows from North American and European gold ETFs totaled -94.44 metric tons this past March. While the month of April saw net cumulative inflows of 32.91 metric tons, the decline began again in May, resulting in cumulative net outflows of -7.31 metric tons, driven primarily by North America. At the same time, WGC data shows that China and India experienced record-setting inflows during the first four months of 2026; however, both nations reversed into sharp, profit-taking outflows in May. Joshua Rotbart, founder of global precious metals bullion firm J. Rotbart & Co., told INN via email correspondence that global gold ETF net outflows in March were valued at US$12 billion. This figure includes US$13 billion that exited North American funds. While renewed demand from North America and Europe helped push global gold ETF to net inflows of US$6.6 billion in April, the following month posted around US$2 billion in global net outflows. “So far, Q2 looks more mixed than one-directional, likely influenced by the uncertainties in the gulf, and their implications for global energy and supply chains,” said Rotbart. “So the better reading is that Q1 was a sharp reset, while Q2 has so far looked more like a recalibration. ETF demand remains sensitive to bond yields, the US dollar and expectations for interest rates.” CPM Group's Christian explained that the yellow metal's falling price was one of the reasons North American gold ETF holders liquidated their positions in the first two quarters of this year. “(A) lot of these ETF investors are not traditional buy-and-hold physical gold and silver buyers. They are more opportunistic,” he said. “They saw the gold price rising after August (2025) and through January (2026), and they bought ETFs. They bought an enormous amount of ETFs in that five month period, and then since February, they've been just selling, and they accelerated their sales pace over the last two weeks, partly because the price was falling, partly because the stock market was rising and partly because the economy looked better than they had expected.” Thegold markets east/west divide The east/west divide in thegold marketis mostly cultural and extends beyond ETFs into bars, coins and jewelry. “The growing east-west divide in gold demand is primarily driven by differing perceptions of gold’s role in wealth preservation,” Wong told INN. “In Asia, particularly in China and India, gold is widely viewed as both money and a long-term store of value, driving strong demand for physical bars and coins amid concerns over currency depreciation, economic uncertainty, property market weakness and geopolitical risks.” Rotbart echoed that sentiment, explaining that across the east, including much of Southeast Asia and the Middle East, there are “cultural legacy reasons” for owning gold. “Asians have bought gold for decades, whether to protect their money, or as gifts and heirlooms. When uncertainty rises, buyers take the metal home: physical bars and coins, held for years,” he told INN. As for western investors, both precious metals experts agree that their tendency is to treat gold as a financial asset or a liquid position to trade. North American investors in particular are more focused on gaining exposure to gold via exchange-traded products, futures and mining stocks. In this way, interest rates, US dollar strength, equities performance and market sentiment have a larger impact on investor decisions to buy or sell. As an example, Rotbart pointed to Q1 2026 data from the WGC that shows global bar and coin demand rose 42 percent year-on-year to 474 metric tons, with Mainland China up 67 percent to a record 207 metric tons, and India pulling off its strongest first quarter since 2013 with a 34 percent bump to 62 metric tons. In comparison, US-listed gold ETFs recorded record outflows of 85 metric tons in March, erasing the 69 metric tons that flowed in earlier in the first quarter. As Rotbart commented, “Same metal, same price, opposite decisions: Asian savers accumulating physical gold, western funds trimming paper." Wong demonstrated the east/west divide further by highlighting regional trends in central bank gold reserve accumulation. “In addition, aggressive gold purchases by emerging market central banks have reinforced physical demand in the east, resulting in a structural shift where Asian consumers and central banks are becoming the dominant drivers of global gold demand and price trends,” he explained. Central bank gold purchases Which driver for the gold price was the most unexpected this past quarter? Rotbart told INN that he was most surprised by the yellow metal’s resilience. “It stayed well supported despite a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, two conditions that would normally weigh on the price. That suggests structural demand is now carrying more weight than short-term rate moves alone,” he said. Rotbart sees central bank demand as a major factor of gold’s resilience. “The clearest signal came from the (European Central Bank’s) June 2026 report, which showed gold accounting for 27 percent of total official foreign reserves at the end of 2025, ahead of US treasuries at 22 percent,” he said. “While that shift reflects both central bank buying and gold’s higher market value, it reinforces gold’s growing role as a strategic reserve asset.” In response to global financial and geopolitical uncertainty, central banks have steadily transitioned to net-buyers. Over the past four years, the WGC estimates that central bank gold accumulation has averaged 1,000 metric tons annually. That’s double the average annual purchases over the preceding decade. According to the WGC’s Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, released in June, 45 percent of the record 76 reserve manager respondents expect their institution’s gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months. Central banks, in particular those representing emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), have developed a strong desire to add gold to their reserve portfolios as an alternative to holding US dollars and treasuries. Gold provides a reserve asset alternative that allows EMDEs to break their reliance on the US dollar, guard against sanctions and protect financial sovereignty. “I think a bigger raft of countries now are concerned about the US dollar, about the United States, and to a lesser extent, perhaps Europe, trying to weaponize currencies in terms of pursuing their foreign policy goals,” Philip Klapwijk, Metals Focus' chief consultant for Hong Kong and Spain, explained at an event in Toronto in early June. “Gold now accounts for 26 percent of global central bank reserves. The US dollar stood in first place at 39 percent, but gold is eating away at the dollar's share, and also eating away somewhat at the euro's share,” added Klapwijk. “I think in the future we're going to see gold become ever more prominent in terms of foreign exchange and central bank reserve holds, and it's interesting to note that this has happened at a time when the official sector is basically not increasing its exposure to US treasuries.” Gold price forecast for 2026 What’s ahead for the gold price in the second half of 2026? Most of the experts INN has spoken to in recent weeks share the view that the yellow metal’s outlook for the remainder of this year will be marked by volatility and resilience. Gold is not likely to test its previous record high again in 2026, but of all the precious metals it is also unlikely to lose too much more of the ground it gained in 2025. “Looking ahead, sovereign debt concerns, geopolitical strain, policy uncertainty and continued central bank interest should remain supportive through the rest of 2026, even if prices remain volatile,” stated Rotbart. Mykuliakm agrees. “Gold remains the most fundamentally supported metal. Central bank purchases, as well as global reserve diversification trends and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continue to provide a solid long-term outlook," she told INN. “However, after its powerful rally earlier in the year, gold appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Unless markets begin pricing in a more aggressive Fed easing cycle (which is extremely unlikely in the current macro environment), price gains are likely to be more muted through the rest of 2026.” So is US$6,000 gold still a possibility by year’s end? Is US$4,000 a safe floor of support for gold? “No, there is now a growing risk that spot gold (XAU/USD) is likely to face further weakness after it broke down below its key 200 day moving average at the start of June 2026,” explained Wong. “(That's) a potential major technical deterioration of its prior major uptrend phase from the October 2023 low, supported by firmer US treasury yields and the US dollar that increases the opportunity cost of holding gold.” Wong noted that the US Dollar Index broke above major 12 month resistance of 100.54 after the June 18 Fed rate decision made under hawkish new leader Warsh. A stronger greenback makes purchasing gold more expensive for non-US buyers as the yellow metal is globally priced in US dollars. Christian also sees the potential for the gold price to fall further in the short term. “We've been saying that we thought that the price would consolidate in a very volatile range between April and through August, and the range so far has been US$4,065 (for the week of June 8), and say US$4,900," he said. "The potential is for it to spike down and actually touch US$4,000, or even go down to US$3,800, which is where a lot of technical people are looking,” he explained, adding he views that as “a reasonable bottom." Christian said CPM Group believes the gold price will move sideways for much of the summer months before moving higher in the last four months of the year: “These are very volatile markets and very volatile and economically uncertain times, and investors are flopping around back and forth.” Various factors are at play that could take gold back up to US$5,000 in 2026, he said, including the possibility of a US recession later in the year. However, investors will most likely be taking cues from the Fed as we move deeper into 2026. As of June 30, CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool showed analysts factoring in a 67 percent probability that the Fed will raise rates as early as the September 15 to 16 meeting. Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates! Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Alastair Crooke: Russia Hearing The European Clamor For War, Announces It's Ready
Alastair Crooke: Russia Hearing The European Clamor For War, Announces It's Ready Authored by Alastair Crooke The de-escalation framework that unfolded in the US-Iran Lucerne talks largely stayed true to the original Iranian 10-point plan. Meanwhile, President Trump and Vice-President Vance deliberately muddy the waters, claiming that Iran has already agreed to IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities (a claim repeatedly denied by Iran): Vance announced that the IAEA could have begun inspections this week. No – – the “Framework” only refers to the possible IAEA supervision of the dilution to the 60% enriched stockpile subject to a final agreement with the US having been reached. Trump, writing on social media, later falsely asserted: “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future.” In fact, the IAEA are only inspecting the joint Iran-Russia power station in Bushier at Russia’s request, because Russia wants to ensure compliance on its involvement. In other words, it is a Russian request to satisfy its own IAEA compliance commitment. Trump then warned Iran that he may have to “finish the job [militarily]” — (if he doesn’t get a very good deal) — which, he says, would take “ about a week,” and adds that Iran will be required to use any unfrozen Iranian funds to be held in ESCROW accounts (accounts controlled by the US) to buy “corn and soybeans for their people, because right now their people are very hungry — and they’re buying exclusively from us.” So, it’s pretty clear what’s ahead — Trump is reverting to his New York real-estate mode of negotiations. In the Art of the Deal, his 1987 book, ghost written by Tony Schwartz, the text advises the use of “extreme and unpredictable demands to create anxiety and force concessions from rivals.” Thus, we are back to the General Kellogg playbook — Kellogg advised Trump that the only thing that works with Putin or the Iranians is pressure — and then still more pressure. Familiar Trumpian tactics. Show a little initial flexibility to tease out adversaries in order to pull them into negotiations; subsequent false claims of Iranian concessions and extreme demands are then used to increase pressure on Iran (whilst Trump appears tough to the angry neocon constituency and to his “base” back home). This style of pressure may work for New York real-estate deals, but will be ineffective with both Iran and Russia. Such threats will be counterproductive with Iran, and place the US on a collision course. “The Islamabad understanding was not the result of pressure and coercion, but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the Iranian nation,” Mr Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, retorted. In practical terms, as Will Schryver, a shrewd observer of the US military, notes, Iran has pressure points “more numerous and capable than the US can bring to bear on the battlefield” — “In my view, [Schryver says], a powerful US military presence in the Persian Gulf region has become utterly untenable. They’re just trying to save face now. I do not believe, [he concludes] the US military can mount even a 72-hour high-intensity operation at this point in time.” “But I think they’ll try. Probably just Trump bluff, but it would not surprise me if they try to play one last card to gain the upper hand.” (Maybe after the midterms, and with the US having rebuilt somewhat its munitions shortfall). To which Iran likely will respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, and attacking, pari passu, regional (Gulf) infrastructure. Trump will be gaming the economy who first plays “Chicken.” A further military venture likely will only further erode American military standing. Quite possibly, however, Trump may be prepared to cut his losses in Iran — the war anyway is a liability to his Midterm electoral calculus — by circling back to Ukraine and Russia. The Kiev Independent released a report yesterday, quoting a “senior Ukrainian official saying that Trump had privately given Zelensky the greenlight to act 'more boldly' against Russia.” Here we go again, roundabout time — “Trump says he doesn’t really believe Putin will do anything without pressure,” the Ukrainian official added. Simplicius speculates: Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily. And recently, on the heels of the Iranian memorandum saga, he even admitted that he would now be “turning his attention” back to Ukraine. As such, it’s plausible that Trump would have given secret encouragement to the Europeans to ‘shape the battlefield’ in order to ‘soften’ Russia up ahead of whatever next Trump might have planned. If this is true (and it probably is), the Europeans are playing with matches and risk lighting a conflagration. The E3 leaders, Starmer, Merz and Macron, met on 7 June with Zelensky to promise both unwavering support and — in the context of pledging further pressure on Russia — …underlining the urgent need to scale up the production of interceptors; deep strike capabilities and anti-ballistic missile co-development — and further to support the future sustainability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In short, the Europeans intend to ratchet up deep strikes into Moscow and St Petersburg, which will likely kill and unsettle their inhabitants. The E3 carefully planned how to stage-manage the upcoming G7 summit, the EU summit, with Zelensky showcased at both events, promising to increase the pressure on “President Putin to agree to an immediate and complete ceasefire, taking the current contact line for its start-point.” European leaders also pledged to co-ordinate ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara (7-8 July) to achieve increased pledges of military support for Ukraine. The E3 states are explicitly gearing up with new missiles to strike deeper, and more destructively, into Russia. The British government, for example, has announced that — …the UK project to develop low-cost advanced long-range strike weapons for Ukraine has reached a significant milestone, with three British-designed systems successfully flight tested. The ground-launched strike weapons reportedly are capable of hitting targets more than 500km distant, at a speed of 600 km/h – whilst carrying a 225 kg warhead. According to the Financial Times, Trump was “hugely impressed and enthusiastic” with Ukraine’s recent campaign of long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russia at last week’s G7 summit. At the summit, Trump also agreed to increase sanctions on Russian energy. It is clear that the E3 had been plotting a major psy-op to convince Trump that Ukraine was not on the back-foot against Russia (as Trump may have been briefed); but rather had regained the front foot, and that the US should support the European agenda to force a Russian capitulation agenda (ceasefire, borders unchanged, reparations paid by Russia and war-crimes trials for Russian officials indicted with crimes, etc). BREAKING AND UNUSUAL It appears STRATEGIC matters will be discussed, as six red folders were seen during Putin’s meeting with members of the Security Council. pic.twitter.com/UFqMhzQFmw — RussiaNews 🇷🇺 (@mog_russEN) July 1, 2026 These developments have brought two major developments out of Russia... Firstly, senior Kremlin aides, notably Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s spokesman, have been saying over the past three days the “spirt” of the Anchorage summit, and its concomitant understandings, “have effectively collapsed” — “The US abandoned them.” Moscow no longer expects those commitments to be honoured and is focused solely on securing its own “victory” through military means. Foreign Minister Lavrov went further, describing the Alaska meeting as an American “ploy” designed to buy time for Ukraine to rebuild and rearm its military — essentially likening them to the Minsk Accords that similarly were mounted as a deceit. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: We also see Washington’s line moving closer to the most rabid anti-Russian policies pursued by the US’s closest European allies – namely, the UK and France. This represents a huge strategic shift. Russia no longer seeks a relationship with Washington, though contact with DC will continue. The second development stems from President Putin’s address at the St George’s Hall to military cadets on June 23. Putin, in summary, told the young officers that the West manufactures a Russia threat, then accuses Russia of creating that very threat. This, said Putin, is a historically repeated pattern going back to 1941. Putin implied that a threshold had now been crossed: He stated that whilst, until recently, NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kiev regime to wage war on Russia, the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia, and is building up their military offensive budgets. German Chancellor Mertz has been quite vocal in this regard, Putin said. Russia’s response, he said, is focused on modernizing its nuclear triad and its Army, and strengthening the combat capability of the Aerospace Forces and the Navy. The explicit mention of the nuclear triad in direct proximity to the discussion of Western preparation for war against Russia was certainly a pointed message to Trump and the Europeans. Russia has heard the European clamor for war. It has now made the strategic decision in response to prepare for war in Europe. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 02:00
Türkiye: Gold prices fall from record highs in H1 amid Middle East tensions. | Flipboard
Türkiye: Gold prices fall from record highs in H1 amid Middle East tensions. *** FILE FOOTAGE *** SHOTLIST KRASNOYARSK, RUSSIA (MAY 27, 2024) (FILE FOOTAGE) 1. WORKERS SORTING GOLD BULLIONS (TWO SHOTS) 2. VARIOUS OF WORKER WRITING INFORMATION ON GOLD BULLION BY MACHINE 3. VARIOUS OF GOLD BULLIONS ISTANBUL, TÜRKİYE (JANUARY 20, 2025) (FILE FOOTAGE) 4. VARIOUS OF GOLD COINS AND BULLIONS IN SHOWCASE OF JEWELRY STORE 5 . VARIOUS OF GOLD JEWELRY IN JEWELRY STORE WINDOW 6. VARIOUS OF SILVER COINS AND BULLIONS KRASNOYARSK, RUSSIA - MAY 27, 2024 & ISTANBUL, TÜRKİYE - JANUARY 20, 2025 - Gold started the year positive and saw record highs of $5,598 per ounce in the first quarter, but it dropped 28.4% from that level in the second quarter to $4,007 due to the widespread effect of the US-Israel-Iran war in the first half of the year. Gold started the year high but the joint US and Israeli attacks against Iran on Feb. 28 and Tehran’s subsequent retaliations escalated regional tensions in the Middle East. Gold started the year at $4,313 per ounce but fell 7.1% during the first six months of the year. Concerns that interest rates could remain high for longer, the strengthening US dollar, and diminishing doubts over the Fed’s independence drove gold below $4,000 per ounce on June 24 for the first time since November 2025. From the end of February, when the war broke out, through the end of March when hostilities intensified, oil surged amid rising geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude reaching as high as $114 per barrel. The rapid rise in oil was feared would reignite global inflation, which in turn could pressure economic growth. The inflation risks drove monetary policy expectations among major central banks. The Fed was previously expected to cut rates twice by year-end before the war, but following the outbreak, the bank is now expected to hike rates at least once by the end of the year. Markets also expect the Fed could hike rates once more by the end of 2027. The change in leadership at the Fed also drove these estimates, as the current chair Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, emphasized price stability as a priority in his initial remarks, which means tightening monetary policy if necessary. Warsh’s commitment to fighting inflation eased concerns about the Fed’s independence, as previously dominant dovish expectations gave way to hawkish expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for a longer period. The US dollar gained strength against other currencies amid these developments, as the currency’s … More stories from StringersHub Join the flipboard community Discover, collect, and share stories for all your interestsSign up More stories from Finance CEO of $248 billion cybersecurity company says workers are about to face a ‘Darwinian moment’ thanks to AI: Evolve or get cut As AI automates routine tasks and redefines entire roles, the tools are creating a new workplace survival test—one where workers must evolve, or risk … Trump, 80, Makes Jaw-Dropping Brag After His Cash Grab Is Exposed The extraordinary comments came as new figures revealed the president reported more than $1.4 billion in income from his family’s crypto ventures … ‘Must be Gnawing Through His Pacifier’: Trump Thought He Had the Upper Hand Against a Black Woman, Then He Got Publicly Humiliated The U.S. Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a major legal victory in one of its latest rulings, but justices put Trump back in his place …
Worse Than an Axis
If actions speak louder than words, the four major adversaries of the United States have sent a very clear message over the past few months. In June, Chinese leader Xi Jinping took his first international trip of 2026 to North Korea, where he and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed to expand their cooperation with no mention of denuclearization. Xi’s trip took place just weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin made his 25th official visit to China, where he and Xi signed 20 different agreements spanning trade, technology, and economic cooperation. Meanwhile, news reports emerged detailing how Beijing and Moscow have provided indirect support to Iran in its war with Israel and the United States, including satellite imagery of U.S. forces in the region, missile propellant, and advanced drones. These four countries—China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia—don’t have a formal alliance but are increasingly aligning and supporting one another in ways that are materially changing the balance of power and challenging the United States and its allies. Skeptics argue that this alignment remains shallow, divided by competing interests and mutual suspicion. In this perspective, it is nothing like the feared Axis powers during World War II because it lacks any formal commitments or aggressive public rhetoric. The U.S. intelligence community even makes a version of this argument in its 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, concluding that these relationships are “limited and primarily bilateral” and that the concept of “adversary alignment” risks overstating the depth of current cooperation. But the absence of a formal bloc does not mean the cooperation is weak. In fact, bilateralism may be precisely what makes it effective. These four states have cooperated on military integration, technological transfers, and mutual learning in a way that exceeds that of most previous authoritarian partnerships. The bilateral arrangements among Washington’s adversaries today can be negotiated faster, are easier to conceal or deny, and are more readily tailored to each pair’s immediate strategic needs than traditional, formal authoritarian alliances. Indeed, history suggests that authoritarian alliances have often proved brittle and unreliable when formalized, particularly when they involve more than two countries. What is emerging among these four powers may be more flexible, and in some respects more dangerous. Washington’s challenge, then, is not to determine whether a new authoritarian axis has emerged. It has not. The more important question is whether a looser but ever more capable network of military, technological, and political cooperation can generate strategic effects comparable to or even exceeding that of a formal alliance. Increasingly, the answer appears to be yes. The United States will not be able to break apart this alignment. But by understanding its structure and taking it seriously, Washington may still be able to limit its effectiveness. TRANSACTIONAL TODAY, STRATEGIC TOMORROW China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia have long shared an adversarial relationship with the United States, but only since 2022 have they developed something approaching meaningful cooperation. The principal catalyst was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that year, after which Moscow faced severe sanctions and the rapid depletion of key weapons stocks. As Russia needed more external military support, it became far more willing to exchange its advanced military technology and operational expertise in order to get it. North Korea, for example, initially withheld meaningful support after Russia’s invasion, but by 2023 it had become one of Moscow’s most important wartime suppliers, providing millions of rounds of artillery ammunition, ballistic missiles, and other military materiel. In return, Russia gave North Korea assistance with military modernization, including of satellites and air defense, as well as deepening economic ties. This relationship began as purely transactional but has gone on to become both deeper and more strategic. In 2024, for instance, the two countries signed a mutual defense treaty, and Kim subsequently dispatched more than 12,000 troops to support Russian military operations in the first large-scale deployment of North Korean combat personnel abroad. Iran similarly emerged as a critical wartime partner for Russia. At first, Tehran supplied Moscow with large numbers of one-way attack drones, including the Shahed systems that have been used extensively against Ukrainian infrastructure. It then expanded its support to include ballistic missiles, technical expertise, and trainers. The relationship has since evolved into joint defense production, with Russia and Iran cooperating to finance and manufacture Iranian-designed drones in the Alabuga special economic zone in Russia. China has stopped short of directly providing arms to Russia, but its support has been indispensable to Moscow’s war effort. U.S. officials have said that China is supplying dual-use technologies, including microelectronics, machine tools, the nitrocellulose used to manufacture ammunition, optical components for use in Russian tanks and armored vehicles, and other critical inputs for weapons production. China’s help has enabled Russia to rebuild its defense industrial base far more rapidly than would otherwise have been possible. China, in other words, has become the economic and industrial foundation of Russia’s military reconstitution. And as with China’s collaboration with North Korea and Iran, this economic engagement has led to deeper military cooperation, including increasing interoperability and expanding joint bomber patrols and naval exercises. According to Reuters, Russian and Chinese officials signed a covert military training agreement in July 2025 under which 200 Russian troops have already been trained in China in drone warfare and hundreds of Chinese soldiers are to train in Russia. Russia, in turn, has provided its partners with technological and military assistance that could materially alter regional balances of power. In November 2024, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, warned that he expected Russia “to provide submarine technology to [China] that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance.” Similarly, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessed in 2025 that “Russia is expanding its sharing of space, nuclear, and missile applicable technology, expertise, and materials to China, Iran, and North Korea,” potentially helping all three countries accelerate their development of weapons of mass destruction and other advanced military tools. A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME These states are also helping one another other mitigate Western sanctions and reduce strategic isolation. For instance, as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission reported to Congress, China was helping Russia, Iran, and North Korea circumvent Western sanctions “through money laundering, barter trade, and a shadow fleet of tankers as well as skirting of export controls through direct sales, transshipment, technology transfer, and local production.” Joint weapons production, technology transfers, and supply-chain integration reinforce such resilience. Institutions such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, meanwhile, provide diplomatic venues through which these countries can gradually legitimize alternative political and economic arrangements that form outside of U.S.-led institutions. The cumulative result is a parallel security and industrial ecosystem that is less vulnerable to coercive pressure from the United States. The fact that this alignment is bilateral and falls short of a formal, multicountry alliance is no reason to underestimate it. Indeed, it’s hard to see how the cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia would be more consequential if it became a formal axis along the lines of historical cases of authoritarian alliances. Alliances in the nineteenth century, after all, tended to be defensive frameworks designed to manage great-power rivalries and domestic threats; allies promised that if one of them went to war, the others would not join the enemy. There was virtually no joint military planning, no unified command structures, and no shared doctrine. By contrast, today, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are actively helping strengthen one another and are sharing more and more resources and know-how. Even the most feared authoritarian alliance in modern history, the Axis alignment of Nazi Germany, imperial Japan, and fascist Italy before and during World War II, was comparatively weak. In 1939, the three countries signed the Tripartite Alliance, which committed each one to assisting the others if any of them were attacked by a power not yet in the war. But there was no operational planning or coordination. Germany did not inform Japan of its plan to invade the Soviet Union. Japan did not inform Germany of its plans for Pearl Harbor. The Axis never executed a single joint military operation. Japan even signed a neutrality pact with Moscow in 1941 and maintained it until the final weeks of the war, completely ignoring Germany’s war on the eastern front. Even the most feared authoritarian alliance in modern history was comparatively weak. The Sino-Soviet alliance formed after World War II was more substantive but still fragile. Signed in February 1950, it was founded on a binding mutual defense treaty to prevent the resurgence of Japanese imperialism. The two countries cooperated closely in the Korean War, and afterward, there was a degree of military industrial cooperation and co-production. But Soviet leader Joseph Stalin saw China as very much the junior partner—a slight that Chinese leader Mao Zedong felt acutely—and after Stalin died, the alliance began to come apart as Mao’s frustrations with an unequal alliance rose to the surface. By contrast, the personal ties in the Chinese-Russian relationship today run deep. Xi and Putin have met over 40 times and demonstrated a profound commitment to working together, including in what they call a “no limits partnership.” This alignment is driven by the two leaders, which ensures that all the other pieces in their governments fall into place. There are, of course, tensions among the four countries. For example, The New York Times reported that the Russian domestic intelligence agency feared Chinese penetration. And Western scholars point to Russians who criticize China and Chinese who criticize Russia as proof that the alignment is not as strong as it seems. But ultimately, the leaders appear to be fully invested and to set the agenda, and their representatives are meeting and talking regularly to handle the irritants in their relationships, minimizing them as much as possible and ensuring that they do not get in the way of a broader alignment. SAND IN THE GEARS Adversary alignment affects U.S. national security interests in a number of ways. First, wars in one region involving one of these four powers are highly likely to lead the others to intervene indirectly, as China, Iran, and North Korea have in the war in Ukraine and as China and Russia have in Iran. The technological transfers in which these countries engage have the potential to shift the regional balances of power against the United States. It will make it harder for the United States and its allies to isolate their rivals through sanctions. Adversary alignment also increases the risk of simultaneous conflict for the United States: if war broke out between China and the United States, for instance, North Korea and Russia would likely see a strategic opportunity to act in their own interests while the United States was distracted. As long as the current leadership remains in power in each of these countries, Washington has very little chance of breaking up this alignment. But there are steps that the United States can take to limit its effectiveness. Updating and imposing sanctions and export controls, for instance, may resemble a game of whack-a-mole, but it is a necessary step in impeding illicit trade between these countries. Washington could also publicly disclose elements of their illicit cooperation, which would likely give Beijing pause, given its fear of becoming a target of additional U.S. sanctions. And Washington can activate third countries to bring pressure to bear, as seen in 2024 when Saudi Arabia pressed Russia not to provide advanced missiles to the Houthi militia in Yemen. The United States can also contain the network by using diplomacy to prevent it from expanding. For instance, the United States worked with Brazil, India, and South Africa in 2024 to stymie the efforts of China and Russia to turn the BRICS into a more overtly anti-American organization. The United States must also prepare to deal with the consequences of the alignment. This includes ensuring that the intelligence community collects, analyzes, and appropriately shares information pertaining to adversary cooperation; engaging and educating allies about the nature and effects of the alignment; and developing countermeasures for the military advantages that one adversary may gain from another’s assistance. Washington’s authoritarian rivals are highly unlikely to launch a coordinated attack on the United States or directly intervene on each other’s behalf if the United States uses military action against one of them. But their alignment does represent one of the most significant and serious integrations of authoritarian militaries in modern history. And it comes at a time when the old rules-based international order has broken down and the risk of major war is rising. It would be irresponsible not to take it seriously and on its own terms. You are reading a free article Subscribe to Foreign Affairs to get unlimited access. - Paywall-free reading of new articles and over a century of archives - Six issues a year in print and online, plus audio articles - Unlock access to the Foreign Affairs app for reading on the go Already a subscriber? Sign In
Str-Eye-ke For A Str-Eye-ke
Str-Eye-ke For A Str-Eye-ke By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank This weekend’s events cast fresh doubts over the value of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. On Friday, President Trump condemned the drone attack on a container ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had shot down three other drones, adding that “obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.” What followed was a series of eye-for-an-eye strikes. The US targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for the attack on the container ship. And on Saturday, the US hit Iran again after the country attacked a tanker transporting Qatari oil. Both sides have since agreed to halt their attacks and have said that further peace talks in Doha must go on. Or, that is what US officials believe, at least: “Our understanding is that both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely.” That news seems to be sufficient to reassure financial markets today, with US equity futures indicating a moderately positive opening of the week. But will this new pinky swear to cease all aggression be enough to convince shipping companies, insurers, and ships that passage through the strait is once again safe? Firstly, we would ask whether the US’ understanding is the same as Iran’s? Recall that both sides were already at odds over what “safe passage” meant in the first place, after Iran warned that only ships following the routes sanctioned by the IRGC are guaranteed safe transit. And “for now” does a lot of heavy lifting in that US statement too. Is that for the duration of the memorandum of understanding? Is it until the talks in Doha this week have concluded? Or just until either side decides otherwise? Israel’s war against Hezbollah remains another potential trigger for renewed escalation in the strait. Hezbollah has rejected the framework agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon as a “surrender of sovereignty.” Even if a number of ships is willing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the likely presence of sea mines limits the capacity of the strait. The CEO of NYK Lines told the FT that “the routes available for navigation are extremely limited,” adding that traffic will not return to normal “for months.” The war between Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate global fuel shortages. Putin admitted that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure are having effect. The Russian president acknowledged that businesses and motorists are facing fuel shortages, and he indicated that problems are likely to persist due to refinery outages: “the right type of gasoline isn’t always available right now.” The government is discussing measures, including a possible ban on diesel exports. So, uncertainty about fuel supply remains high. Together with concerns about new US import tariffs, that’s driving shipping costs to new highs. Last month, the US administration unveiled plans for new tariffs on a range of trading partners, after the Supreme Court annulled part of Trump’s original tariff scheme. So, US companies are trying to build inventory ahead of these tariffs. Just like the frontloading seen ahead of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, this stockpiling is putting pressure on shipping costs. According to data from Drewry, the freight rate for a 40-foot container has surged to the highest in about two years. And so, new import tariffs –or the anticipation thereof– will probably continue to put upside pressure on US inflation, thereby delaying Fed Chair Warsh’ rate cutting campaign. In fact, some policymakers are considering a rate hike as their next move. Kashkari indicated which dot in the Fed’s dot plot is his: he said that he has pencilled in one rate hike in for this year, and that he expects rates to stay on hold in 2027. The central banker then added “we’re going to have to see how no forward guidance works.” Well, not like this? Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 10:00
Futures Rise As Dip-Buyers Lift Tech Stocks
Futures Rise As Dip-Buyers Lift Tech Stocks US equity futures are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher and points to a reversal of last week’s profit-taking, as traders position for the end of the first half. A shortened week will likely focus on a speech from the Fed’s Warsh on Wednesday and payrolls on Thursday. As of 8:30am, S&P futures are 0.9% higher as traders bought the dip after a rotation out of this year’s top-performing stocks sent the US benchmark to its second-worst week of the quarter; Nasdaq futures gain 1.2%, with both Software and Semis higher, which may be more driven by period-end reshuffling than a shift in sentiment. A mix of space, software and artificial-intelligence infrastructure names led premarket gains. Comcast Corp. jumped 23% on a plan to split its business. Cyclicals ex-Materials are leading Defensives ex-HC with the AI theme bid up across sectors. Bond yields are +1-2bp higher with the Dollar down a touch. Commodities are lower but the Energy complex is bid following another series of attacks between US / Iran; WTI back above $70/bbl, and Brent climbed 0.8% to $72.59 a barrel following weekend flare-ups between the US and Iran. While the two sides have since agreed to halt the attacks, the pace of shipments through the chokepoint has slowed, with shipowners likely to remain wary of crossing the strait. Gold / silver are down 1-2%, base metals with a slight bid, and Ags mostly lowers. Today’s macro data focus is on the June Dallas Fed activity with the balance of the holiday-shortened US week including June jobs report Thursday and ISM-Mfg, JOLTS and ADP. In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +1%, Amazon +1%, Apple +0.1%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.7%, Nvidia +1%, Tesla +0.8%) Chip stocks are rebounding following a 5.3% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on Friday, with equipment stocks leading gains after South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix set out plans to build two chipmaking plants. Comcast (CMCSA) is up 22% after the company said it plans to separate its media businesses from its cable-TV and internet operations, spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky into a new publicly traded company in a bid to increase value. Doximity (DOCS) falls 4% after BofA double downgraded the healthcare software company to underperform from buy, citing limited clarity on the near-term trajectory of margins as well as execution risks related to the pivot to AI. Iridium (IRDM) climbs 20% after Rocket Lab agreed to buy the company for $54 a share in a cash-and-stock transaction that puts the satellite communications company at about $8 billion in enterprise value. Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) slips 3% after agreeing to combine with building materials supplier Lhoist North America in a transaction valued at $13.5 billion, including debt. Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) jumps 14% after the biotech said the FDA had approved its drug for treating an inflammatory disorder that affects the tissues around eyes. In other corporate newsoOnline spending across all retailers in the US hit $26.4 billion during Amazon’s annual Prime Day sale, according to Adobe, narrowly beating the firm’s earlier estimate of $26.3 billion. The FDA approved AbbVie’s Skyrizi as the first IL-23 inhibitor approved in the US for pediatric patients six years of age and older weighing less than 40 kilograms. In AI news, Anthropic won US approval to restore some access to its Mythos 5 model after resolving Trump administration concerns about the technology’s potential threats to national security. Google has placed limits on Meta’s use of its Gemini AI models because it could not provide as much computing capacity as the social media company wanted, according to the Financial Times. China is said to have matched Anthropic in cybersecurity, resetting the AI race, according to the WSJ. As the S&P 500 heads for its best quarter since 2020, one of the biggest debates is how much further high-flying chipmakers can push markets higher after an almost one-way rally turned more volatile in recent weeks. US equities are likely to enjoy another robust earnings season on the back of a “solid macro backdrop” and the AI investment boom, according to Goldman strategists. RBC Capital Markets strategists raised their 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 8,150 points. “It wasn’t a full-blown selloff, but more a rotation of the kind that we saw many times in the last 12 months,” said Guy Miller at Zurich Insurance. “There are strong fundamentals in terms of super-normal profits. In semiconductors in particular, there’s still clearly a supply-demand imbalance.” As we reported over the weekend, hedge funds dumped global TMT stocks last week, with the combined total reaching its highest level in over 10 years, according to Goldman Sachs’ Prime desk. Deutsche Bank strategists confirmed that tech funds saw record outflows, as investors trimmed their aggregate equity positioning last week with overall equity positioning now slightly below neutral. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes market breadth is improving as earnings recover beyond megacap tech, crude prices fall and crowded AI momentum trades in hyperscalers and semiconductors come under pressure. Still, US equities are likely to enjoy another robust earnings season on the back of a “solid macro backdrop” and the AI investment boom, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. And RBC strategists raised their 12-month target for the S&P 500 index. A strong first half for stocks has historically been a good sign for the rest of the year in the market. Whether that holds again is the question in light of all the wild cards on the horizon. Despite the “chip wreck” last week, the sector is on track to post the best first half performance versus the S&P 500 ever. The surge in market leverage, stemming in part from the massive growth of levered ETF products, retail margin accounts and hedge fund deposits at prime brokers, is stoking worries that it may exacerbate the next crisis. And an AI bust, inflation and fiscal stress are among the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, the BIS warned in its annual report published on Sunday. Traders will shift their focus this week to the annual gathering of central bankers in Portugal, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will make his public debut outside the US. Aside from hints on interest rates, questions over financial stability, including those linked to the artificial-intelligence boom, will be among the themes under discussion. Another prominent event will be the monthly US jobs report on Thursday, the culmination of the usual flurry of labor data that opens each month. “After the hawkish pause of the Fed earlier in the month, one would have expected market exuberance to stall, but that doesn’t seem to be the case,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “That means the market believes that US exceptionalism is there to stay. It also means that the rally will likely broaden toward other corners of the market.” Fed’s Barkin warned that inflation is too high, though he sees tentative signs that price pressures may moderate soon. The calendar for this week includes the annual central bankers’ gathering in Portugal, with an appearance by new Fed Chair Warsh, and US June jobs report on Thursday — likely to be a third straight extremely strong print, according to Bloomberg Economics. “Our economists continue to expect a relatively hawkish policy path, with two rate hikes penciled in later this year,” noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. “However, near-term guidance is likely to remain limited, leaving markets to take their cues primarily from incoming data.” Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging lower, with tech outperforming in Europe too but being offset by declines for health care and consumer stocks. Tech and media stocks rise most, while construction shares lag. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Bridgepoint gains as much as 12%, the most since April, after the UK private equity firm announced it has agreed to buy Florida-based Kayne Anderson Real Estate in the group’s first push into the US property market Nagarro shares rise as much as 92% to €77.50 after Galaxy Germany, a holding company for Persistent Systems, said it plans to offer €81 per share to buy the IT services firm Prosus shares rise as much as 4% after the company reported strong results for fiscal year 2026 that were in line with expectations. Analysts welcome a 40% increase in the dividend Elmera rises as much as 3.2% after the Norwegian electricity provider agreed to sell itself to Finnish rival Fortum, which beat an earlier bid from Spain’s Audax. Fortum shares gain as much as 1.1% Ipsen shares climb as much as 1.9%, making them among the biggest gainers in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday. The French company’s deal to buy Kartos Therapeutics is “strategically sensible,” according to Barclays Gerresheimer shares fall as much as 5.8% after the German firm lowered its guidance for the 2026 financial year, citing a challenging economic environment, some project delays on the part of customers and operational challenges Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 2%, underperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday morning, with JPMorgan noting an expected guidance raise is already reflected in current consensus figures Asian markets traded higher on Monday after South Korean stocks recouped most of their losses following massive investment plans by heavyweight chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after falling as much as 1% earlier in the session. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slumped more than 6% before erasing the bulk of their declines, leading to a similar move in the Kospi. In an ambitious plan aimed at cementing South Korea’s status as a technological powerhouse, the nation is planning investments of at least 1,350 trillion won ($880 billion) from companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix into chips and data centers. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher while benchmarks in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand climbed. In geopolitics, the US and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues. “At this point, the market appears to be driven much more by sentiment than fundamentals,” said Kim Dojoon, chief investment officer at Zian Investment Management. “Price action has been concentrated in the large electronics names,” with developments in semiconductor pricing dynamics weighing on the outlook over time. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed, with the euro holding around $1.14 and sterling hovering just above $1.32. In rates, bond yields in the US, Europe and the UK are higher, with gilts slightly underperforming and yields up by two or three basis points across the curve ahead of a speech by would-be prime minister Andy Burnham. Treasuries are mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels, as oil futures stabilize near four-month low with US and Iran halting attacks, while dip buyers emerge in US stocks, following a rotation out of this year’s top performers. Front-end and belly yields are slightly higher on the day, long-end tenors slightly richer, flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is little changed, similar to bunds and gilts in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes five names so far; supply this week is expected to slow, with dealers forecasting $10 billion to $15 billion of sales. Treasury coupon issuance resumes next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year tenors In commodities, WTI crude oil futures, off session highs, remain more than 1% higher; Brent climbed 0.8% to $72.59 a barrel following weekend flare-ups between the US and Iran. While the two sides have since agreed to halt the attacks, the pace of shipments through the chokepoint has slowed, with shipowners likely to remain wary of crossing the strait. Gold is down by about $40/oz to around $4,050/oz. US economic data calendar includes only Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am; ahead this week before Thursday are June consumer confidence, May JOLTS job openings, June ADP employment change and June ISM manufacturing. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The U.S. and Iran have agreed to end days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks, said officials from the U.S. and other countries involved in the negotiations. Commercial shipping continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz at a reduced level after recent attacks on two vessels. A handful of vessels made open transits over the weekend, according to tracking data. BBG China’s central bank set the interest rate on its new overnight liquidity tool at a level that was below expectations, according to people familiar with the matter, in what some economists see as a de facto rate cut that could push down market borrowing costs. The PBOC said it conducted 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) of overnight reverse repurchase agreements in open market operations on Monday. BBG China has expanded the list of Japanese companies and organizations on its export control list in Beijing’s latest move to curb what it describes as a “new type of militarism” from the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. FT Vladimir Putin expects US negotiators to visit Russia for Ukraine talks once Washington shifts focus from Iran, but rejected a proposal to halt long-range strikes. He acknowledged fuel supply problems and said he’s considering a full ban on diesel exports. BBG Investors have never been more eager to ratchet up their stock returns through margin loans and funds that amplify gains and losses. U.S. margin debt, or what investors borrow from their brokerages to buy securities, rose 54% to a record $1.4 trillion in May from a year earlier, according to Finra data. Meanwhile, high-risk leveraged exchange-traded funds that produce double or triple the daily move of underlying stocks are growing rapidly, as is trading in options tied to them. WSJ Comcast shares jumped premarket (CMCSA +24%) after it announced plans to separate into two companies with a tax-free spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky. BBG The Supreme Court is set to rule on two of Trump’s most audacious gambits: his bids to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook and to roll back automatic birthright citizenship. The judges will release the final seven rulings of their term this week, starting today. BBG Private credit’s latest bet is Buy Now, Pay Later loans. Supporters say the consumer assets offer attractive returns, but critics worry about parallels to the subprime mortgage crisis. BBG Financials will kick off the Q2 2026 earnings season the week of July 13th. By the first week of August, roughly 75% of S&P 500 market cap will have reported results. Nvidia (NVDA), the largest stock in the market, will report on August 26th. GIR US House Speaker Johnson said he will send the Housing Bill over to President Trump on Monday: Fox News. S&P affirmed the US at AA+; Outlook Stable. Iran Conflict US CENTCOM announced that it conducted strikes against multiple Iranian targets on Saturday, on the orders of US President Trump, "in direct response to continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping." In retaliation, Iran's IRGC responded by hitting 8 US military installations at the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, according to IRNA. However, in the early hours of Monday, a US official said technical talks with Iran are slated to continue on all areas of the MoU, while the official added that both sides will stand down for now and that vessels can move freely. US official said Iranian drone and missile attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain failed and that all Iranian projectiles were intercepted or missed, according to ABC News. Iran cancelled technical talks with the US scheduled on Sunday and cited recent attacks on the country and a failure to meet conditions outlined in the MoU with the US. However, it was separately reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week, according to Axios citing a senior US official. Furthermore, US and Iran technical talks that were scheduled to be held on Tuesday in Switzerland, which would focus on nuclear and other issues, have reportedly been changed and will now be held in Doha on Tuesday and will focus on the Strait of Hormuz and recent escalation. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US and Israel have violated the MoU, particularly the first clause, which hinders the restoration of regional security, while he also stated that Iran seeks to implement the MoU in good faith in accordance with the principle of commitment for commitment and that they will act decisively against contract breaches. Mediators have reportedly set up communication channels to de-escalate any incidents with technical talks set to continue, according to reports. Iran's President said they will get USD 6bln from Qatar of the USD 12bln of Iranian funds that were frozen due to US restrictions within Qatar, journalist Mallick reported. Israeli army said it attacked 3 Hezbollah headquarters in southern Lebanon last night. Israeli military has received no orders to withdraw from Lebanon, according to Al-Jadeed and Haaretz, citing an Israeli military source. Instructions have been given to the Israeli army to reduce the destruction of homes and infrastructure in areas of southern Lebanon it controls, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli media. Israel destroyed a Hezbollah underground tunnel in southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces reportedly shelled a Syrian village near the Golan Heights. Israeli PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz said the IDF will remain in the southern Lebanon "security zone" after destroying a Hezbollah underground facility. Iran and Oman held the first meeting on the Strait of Hormuz, within the framework of Article 5 of the MoU, Mehr reported. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week mixed, heading closer to month- and quarter-end, while participants reflected on the geopolitical developments over the weekend, in which the US and Iran conducted tit-for-tat strikes. Although, the sides have since agreed to halt attacks and will meet for talks this week. ASX 200 traded rangebound with the index kept afloat by strength in tech, telecoms, healthcare and the consumer sectors, while utilities, industrials and real estate lagged. Furthermore, price action was contained in the absence of any pertinent data and with the ACCC announcing that the excise tax cut on fuel is to be lowered from July 1st to August 2nd. Nikkei 225 continued its pullback from recent record highs and slipped beneath the 69,000 level amid tech-related weakness, although the index is off today's worst levels as participants also digested strong Retail Sales data. Moreover, reports that the government is to call for “appropriate” monetary policy in its basic policy guidelines, in an apparent effort to dissuade the BoJ from further hiking rates, also boosted sentiment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are positive, albeit to varying degrees, with outperformance in Hong Kong amid strength in biotech and a rebound in hyperscalers. Baidu was boosted as its AI chip unit Kunlunxin targets a USD 50bln Hong Kong listing. However, the mainland was contained after somewhat mixed industrial profits data, and despite the PBoC conducting overnight reverse repo operations as flagged. Top Asian News South Korea announced a new AI and chip spending package, which includes huge investment from the likes of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). PBoC injected CNY 157.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%, while it announced CNY 300bln in overnight reverse repos with the overnight reverse repo rate said to be 1.25% vs exp. 1.35%, according to Bloomberg. Japan’s government is expected to call for “appropriate” monetary policy in its basic policy guidelines, in an apparent effort to dissuade the BoJ from further hiking rates, according to Bloomberg citing a document. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) started the day tentatively, but have gradually edged off best levels. The latest US-Iran flare up has had little impact on trade this morning, with traders ultimately focusing more on any potential disruptions to the Strait rather than fresh strikes. Focus in the APAC session was on South Korea, where it announced a new KRW 1,350tln AI and chip spending package. The total plan includes promoting a semiconductor fab worth KRW 800tln, 81tln in a packaging hub and 550tln to build AI data centres. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are to be heavily involved, with the two Cos planning to build two chipmaking plants each for KRW 800tln. Even though the announcement helped reverse the earlier losses (Samsung Electronics -4.8%, SK Hynix -1.7%), analysts at Morningstar think that, if the new commitments are standalone investments, they could imply material oversupply risk over the next decade. Top European News Spanish Economy Ministry said the Government expects the economy to grow by 2.6% in 2026 (prev. 2.2%). FX Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD and to varying degrees. The Kiwi slightly outperforms vs peers, whilst the GBP and EUR follow closely behind. The JPY resides at the bottom of the list. Outside of the G10 space, the KRW is weaker this morning after South Korea unveiled a USD 1tln chip/AI investment plan. Potentially on fears surrounding a) how Korea aims to finance the government's portion of the investment, b) pressure in SK Hynix/Samsung shares, which leads to outflows in domestic markets, c) heightened geopolitical risk, and the associated inflationary impacts on the region. DXY is incrementally weaker against the USD, and currently holds within a 101.15 to 101.39 range. Focus for the index over the weekend was on the increased geopolitical risk, which ultimately highlighted the uncertain nature of the current US-Iran MoU. As a reminder, the US and Iran conducted tit-for-tat strikes; thereafter, the pair agreed to halt strikes and resume meetings this week. It seems to be the case that markets are happy to ignore the short-term flare-ups, and broadly focus on whether there are any material disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. GBP is slightly firmer, holding within a narrow 1.3191 to 1.32282 range. Really not much driving the action this morning for the GBP, but focus ahead will be on commentary from likely PM Burnham. He is expected to announce plans to devolve powers and money from the central government to England’s regions. This would mark his first major policy speech since announcing his intention to stand for leadership of the ruling Labour Party. That aside, speculation around the next UK Chancellor continues. The Sun reports that current Work and Pension Secretary McFadden is a contender, under the belief he would steady the market. However, Miliband remains a contender, with a source to the Sun remarking that it is now between McFadden and Miliband. The latter remains the worst option for markets. JPY remains the slight underperformer this morning. USD/JPY currently holds towards near-term highs at 161.95, and within a 161.72-161.88 range. Speculation surrounding intervention remains heightened, particularly heading into US Independence Day. Japan favours intervention during periods of low volume, given the improved effectiveness when attempting to strengthen the JPY. Fixed Income Fixed income benchmarks initially started the week on the backfoot as energy prices opened higher on renewed US-Iran strikes over the weekend, but have since come off lows as crude benchmarks fall from highs. This came after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes, and meet on Tuesday. Gilts (-23 ticks) are slightly softer, ahead of MP Burnham's speech at 11:30BST/06:30EDT. It is to last around 20 minutes, focusing on his economic plans. We do not anticipate a Q&A. He is also expected to focus on expanding the devolution of control away from London, and could also touch on nuances around tax levels, housing stock, defence spending and within that, possibly war bonds. Welfare reform will also feature as part of the move to give local authorities more control. The UK benchmark currently trades in the lower part of a 89.24-89.58 range. Bunds (-8 ticks), likewise, are rangebound (127.35-127.51), despite a hotter-than-expected inflation print from Spain. HICP Y/Y printed at 3.6% vs exp. 3.4%, well above the ECB's 2% target, while the core figure ticked lower to 2.9% from 3.0%. If the trend of lower core figures follows through to other EZ economies, with France, Italy and Germany set to release their inflation figures later this week, this could signal that the ECB would be willing to look through higher headline figures. The lower core figures would also support the view put forward by ECB President Lagarde, in which she said, "We see no evidence yet of de-anchoring of inflation expectations or second-round effects that would warrant a more forceful policy response at this stage." USTs (-2+ ticks) follow their European counterparts, lacking any clear direction, with an appearance by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra on Wednesday and the US jobs report on Thursday going to be the key driver for Treasuries. Warsh is likely to maintain a slightly hawkish tone and give little in terms of guidance. Ahead of the jobs report, economists at Capital Economics said further downside in yields could lose momentum, with the June report due to be strong again. The economist states that the increasingly strong labour market is not a reason to delay tightening, which could be the biggest near-term risk to USTs. Commodities A choppy morning for crude as we digest the initial escalation and then the easing of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, with the near-term focus now on Tuesday’s technical talks in Doha. Just after the open, WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 70.97/bbl and USD 73.39/bbl respectively. While firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl on the day at the peak, the move failed to test Friday’s respective USD 71.86/bbl and USD 75.13/bbl tops, and by extension numerous levels thereafter. Benchmarks pulled back in acknowledgement of the initial Axios scoop that the side would be meeting this week, and, ahead of that, have agreed to stop strikes. Nonetheless, there still appears to be conflict occurring in Gaza and Lebanon. As the European morning proceeded, WTI and Brent have clambered off lows and trades firmer by USD 0.92/bbl and USD 0.66/bbl respectively. Spot gold picked up at the end of last week, reacting to the initial US strikes in the Hormuz area. The yellow metal ended the week at USD 4091, just off Friday’s USD 4096/oz best, though markedly shy of that week’s USD 4198/oz peak. For today, as above, geopolitical tensions have moderated somewhat and as such, XAU has lost some of its haven allure, slipping into the red by around USD 30/oz, with the US equity tone also bid and tech-led after the huge Korean AI and Chip spending plan, alongside confirmation that SPCX is to join the Nasdaq. Base metals are mixed, despite the firmer US tone. Instead, reflecting the mixed APAC handover and acknowledging the marginal deterioration in the European tone across the morning. 3M LME Copper is just about in the green, but in a thin and familiar range, shy of the mid-May peak. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said operations at its oil refinery and petrochemical plant in northwest France were impacted by a power outage on Friday. Spain’s Bilbao Port Executive President urged the EU to delay the 2027 ban on Russian LNG or risk becoming overdependent on the US, according to FT. Oman LNG's first LNG carrier has reportedly departed the nation, Oman News Agency reported. US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said the US and Mexico opened a sterile fly production facility in Metapa, Mexico, which is expected to produce up to 100mln sterile flies a week. Trade/Tariffs China's MOFCOM said 20 Japanese firms were added to the export control list for links to Japan's military. MOFCOM stated that measures only target some Japanese entities and apply only to dual-use items, while they do not affect normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan. Central Banks Fed Chair Warsh is reportedly set to announce task force details in the coming few weeks, NYT reported citing sources, Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said inflation is too high, but he sees some signs that price pressures could moderate soon, according to Bloomberg. ECB's Kazaks said there is currently no need for multiple ECB hikes in a rushed way, according to Econostream. Probabilities of the negative scenarios have fallen massively, with the shock and persistence being smaller while a smaller shock reduces the risk of non-linearities and second-round effects. BoE's chief economist Pill said the BoE is still experimenting with scenarios and external presentations. Geopolitics Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine targeted the Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and a refinery in the Yaroslavl region of Russia, as part of Kyiv’s “long-range sanctions” campaign against Russia. Ukraine's air force said a UAV was detected in the Dnipropetrovsk region, while explosions were reported in the suburbs of Kharkiv. Russian President Putin said Russia has proposed that both sides stop striking each other’s deep targets and warned that if such strikes continue, Russian strikes on Ukraine will become more powerful with more severe consequences. Russian President Putin said Russia is expecting US negotiators once the US is less busy with Iran, while he also stated that Russia is ready for talks with the US, according to AFP. US Event Calendar 10:30 am: June Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1, prior 0.4 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We have published our quarterly global markets survey, which includes a range of fascinating insights—from expectations around events in Iran and where bubbles may be forming in financial markets, to how AI is being used at work and views on its potential to replace jobs. It also covers our regular questions and, perhaps most importantly, predictions for the World Cup. You Tensions in the Iran conflict have continued to escalate since Friday, with a series of tit-for-tat strikes around the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire framework. The latest flare-up began with attacks on commercial shipping, prompting successive US strikes on Iranian-linked targets, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-linked sites in the Gulf, including bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Over the weekend, the conflict intensified further with additional strikes on vessels and military targets, leading to heightened maritime security risks and the Joint Maritime Information Center raising the threat level in the Strait to “substantial.” However, overnight developments suggest a tentative de-escalation, with the US and Iran reportedly agreeing to halt further attacks ahead of renewed technical talks in Doha this week. Both sides are said to be standing down for now, allowing shipping flows to continue, although disputes over key provisions of the memorandum of understanding—particularly around control and potential costs for transit through Hormuz—mean the situation remains fragile and risks to regional stability persist. Brent is up +0.71% this morning. Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing some support, though fresh regional trade frictions are weighing on sentiment after China imposed tighter export controls on 20 Japanese entities, requiring government approval for shipments. Beijing said the move reflects concerns over Japan’s military posture. The KOSPI (-2.24%) is the weakest performer, with technology stocks still under pressure following last week’s semiconductor volatility, while the Nikkei (-0.88%) is also lower. In contrast, the Hang Seng (+2.12%) is outperforming, with the CSI (+0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) posting modest gains, and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.35%) edging higher. US equity futures are firmer, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up +0.57%, while 10yr UST yields are +1.2bps at 4.38%. On the policy front, the PBOC has introduced an overnight reverse repo facility, setting the rate at 1.25%. This marks another step in modernising its monetary policy framework and improving short-term liquidity management. The new rate sits 15bps below the existing seven-day reverse repo rate of 1.40%, which remains the main policy benchmark. In Japan, early data showed retail sales rose 5.3% YoY in May, well above expectations of 3.0% and up from April’s downwardly revised 2.8%. Global attention this week will centre on the US labour market, with the June employment report due on Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday. A reminder that the US will be 250 years old this week and Peter and Henry have written a piece explaining how it's continually prospered over the period and the likelihood of it doing so going forward. Alongside that, central bank communication will be in focus at the ECB’s Sintra forum (today through Wednesday), while inflation data across Europe and activity indicators in Asia—notably China’s PMIs and Japan’s monthly data—round out a busy global calendar. In the US, our economists expect payroll growth on Thursday to slow to +75k (from +172k previously), with private payrolls rising by around +90k. There is some risk of seasonals pulling down the numbers as they have in recent years around this time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are seen unchanged at +0.3% month-on-month. Hours worked are also expected to remain steady at 34.3, leaving nominal income growth broadly stable. Ahead of that, today brings the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, while tomorrow sees the May JOLTS report, where markets will watch for any shifts in hiring, quits and layoffs amid a still subdued hiring environment. Wednesday then features the ADP employment report (our economists expect +110k) alongside the ISM manufacturing index (forecast 53.8 vs 54.0 previously). These releases should help set expectations going into Thursday’s payrolls. Beyond the labour market, tomorrow also sees the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (our economists expect 94.1 vs 93.1 previously). On policy, attention will turn to Wednesday, when Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB’s Sintra forum. Our economists continue to expect a relatively hawkish policy path, with two rate hikes pencilled in later this year. However, near-term guidance is likely to remain limited, leaving markets to take their cues primarily from incoming data. Looking beyond the US, Europe’s main event is the aforementioned ECB’s annual Sintra conference, which begins today and runs through Wednesday, featuring remarks from major central bank leaders. In parallel, inflation data will be a key focus, with Spain and Belgium reporting today, followed by Germany, France and Italy tomorrow, and the Eurozone aggregate on Wednesday. Our economists expect inflation of 2.46% YoY in Germany, 2.30% in France, 3.23% in Italy, and 2.95% for the Eurozone. Switzerland will also release CPI on Thursday. In the UK, the BoE publishes its credit conditions surveys on Thursday and the DMP survey on Friday. In Asia, China releases various PMIs in the first half of the week. In Japan, today’s retail sales (out earlier) is followed by industrial production tomorrow, where our economists expect a +1.4% month-on-month increase. The highlight, however, will be the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday, which is expected to show broadly steady sentiment and may reinforce the case for further gradual policy tightening. Recapping last week now, and markets were rocked by a global tech sell-off, even as oil prices declined amid increasing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So both the S&P 500 (-1.95%, -0.05% on Friday) and the Nasdaq (-4.60%, -0.24% Friday) declined, whilst the Magnificent 7 (-5.46%, +1.47%) entered correction territory, down -12.6% from its May 28 peak. A large part of the tech weakness was driven by chipmakers, as the Philly Semiconductor Index dropped by -7.94% (-5.29% Friday), despite a brief reprieve midweek after Micron beat revenue estimates for Q4. In Asia, the Kospi (-5.81%, -7.08% on Friday) and Nikkei (-2.65%, -4.15%) also slumped. The equity sell-off came despite Brent crude prices (-10.65%, -4.34% on Friday) falling back to below their pre-war levels at $71.99/bbl, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to ramp up. The oil price decline has eased fears about an inflation shock and aggressive rate hikes. That was also helped by some positive US data last week, including Thursday’s PCE inflation which showed headline PCE up only +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected). So investors dialled back expectations of Fed rate hikes, with the amount of hikes priced by December down -7.3bps to 32bps over the week. In turn, that led the 2yr Treasury yield -8.7bps lower over the week (-3.1bps on Friday), whilst the 10yr yield (-8.4bps, -2.3bps on Friday) fell to 4.37%. Pricing of ECB rate hikes by December also fell -12.8bps over the week to 24bps. Germany’s 2yr (-12.9bps, -1.1bps on Friday) and 10yr (-13.4bps, -0.6bps on Friday) declined in response. Finally, in Europe UK assets outperformed as Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation announcement on Monday helped ease political uncertainty with Andy Burnham so far unchallenged as Starmer’s successor. Yields on 10yr gilts (-11.1bps, +3.2bps Friday) fell, while the FTSE 100 rose +1.40% (-0.21% on Friday). That helped keep the STOXX 600 stable over the week (+0.04%, -0.68% Friday), even as the DAX (-1.26%, -1.29% Friday) and CAC 40 (-0.55%, -0.43% Friday) fell after Friday’s slump. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 - 08:48
Israeli cyber chief reports sharp rise in Iranian cyberattacks after war
Israeli cyber chief reports sharp rise in Iranian cyberattacks after war The number of Iranian cyberattacks against Israel has shot up since the launch of the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran this year, a senior Israeli security official was quoted as saying on Monday. Yossi Karadi, Director General of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, told German newspaper Die Welt that in June 2025 during Israeli military operations against Iran, Israel's authorities registered around 1,600 hostile cyber incidents. During the same month in 2026, the number had jumped to some 4,800 incidents, he told the paper. "Some groups are very skilled," Karadi said, according to the German text of the interview. "We can handle them, but we have to take them seriously. Unlike in the kinetic realm, there's no ceasefire in cyberspace." Karadi said the attacks were directed against systems used by Israel's critical infrastructure, central organisations, small to medium-sized companies and the public, citing law practices and accounting firms as among the smaller ones hit. (Reuters)
Israel says no ceasefire in cyberspace, Iran continues to attack critical infrastructure
Israel says no ceasefire in cyberspace, Iran continues to attack critical infrastructure Israeli officials say cyberattacks attributed to Iran rose sharply during the latest conflict. The jump underlines how the confrontation has continued online. The recent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran was fought with drones, fighter jets, missiles, and other military equipment. But another battle has also been playing out online. According to Israeli officials, cyberattacks attributed to Iran against Israel have surged over the past year, with thousands of incidents recorded in June 2026. The number of cyberattacks attributed to Iran targeting Israel has risen dramatically since the launch of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran this year, according to a senior Israeli security official. Yossi Karadi, Director General of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, told German newspaper Die Welt that Israeli authorities recorded around 1,600 hostile cyber incidents during Israeli military operations against Iran in June 2025. In June 2026, however, that number reportedly jumped to around 4,800 incidents. "Some groups are very skilled," Karadi said, according to the German text of the interview. "We can handle them, but we have to take them seriously. Unlike in the kinetic realm, there's no ceasefire in cyberspace." What are the hackers targeting? According to Karadi, the attacks have targeted systems used by Israel's critical infrastructure, central organisations, small and medium-sized businesses, and even members of the public. He said law firms and accounting firms were among the smaller organisations that had been targeted. "So far — and hopefully it stays that way — we've managed to fend off attacks on critical infrastructure," he said. Iran has typically denied carrying out hacking campaigns against other countries while also reporting cyberattacks on itself. AI is reportedly becoming part of the cyber arsenal Cyberattacks are also becoming more sophisticated with the help of artificial intelligence. According to a previous report by the Financial Times, Iranian hackers are using AI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and other Western AI programs to develop malware, craft phishing messages in Hebrew and Arabic, and create convincing fake online identities aimed at targets in the US and Israel. The report says Iranian operators use AI-generated identities to build trust with potential targets. They reportedly engage in conversations under fake personas, gradually encouraging victims to lower their guard before sending malicious links or requests. Israel has also reportedly been hit by waves of phishing emails and text messages, with some messages allegedly inviting recipients to collaborate with Iranian intelligence. Not just hacking, but online influence campaigns Apart from the alleged cyberattacks, Iran has also been accused in previous reports of using YouTube for propaganda. These have reportedly included animated videos aimed at US President Donald Trump and the United States.
Iranian cyberattacks on Israel have nearly tripled cyber chief says | The Jerusalem Post
The number of Iranian cyberattacks against Israel has shot up since the launch of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran this year, a senior Israeli security official was quoted as saying on Monday. Yossi Karadi, Director General of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, told German newspaper Die Welt that in June 2025, during Israeli military operations against Iran, Israel's authorities registered around 1,600 hostile cyber incidents. During the same month in 2026, the number had jumped to some 4,800 incidents, he told the paper. "Some groups are very skilled," Karadi said, according to the German text of the interview. "We can handle them, but we have to take them seriously. Unlike in the kinetic realm, there's no ceasefire in cyberspace." Karadi said the attacks were directed against systems used by Israel's critical infrastructure, central organizations, small to medium-sized companies, and the public, citing law practices and accounting firms as among the smaller ones hit. "So far - and hopefully it stays that way - we've managed to fend off attacks on critical infrastructure," he said. Companies that were easier to penetrate often ended up having their computer systems wiped, he said, without mentioning any names. Iran typically denies carrying out hacking campaigns against other countries while reporting attacks on itself. Israel works to develop best cyber offense, defense In February, the INCD and the Shin Bet issued an update and a warning to the Israeli public that, since mid-2025, there had been a campaign of hundreds of highly sophisticated cyber attacks against Israeli government officials, security officials, academics, and media figures. At the time, Karadi told The Jerusalem Post that Israel is "trying to develop both the best cyber offense and defense," which in large part means collaborating with international partners. "The cooperation with the US is still excellent. We are still helping each other. I have sat with them, and the results were excellent... We work very well with everyone. We recently signed an agreement to send a permanent cyber liaison to Germany,” he said.
Iran cyberattacks on Israel surged in 2026, Israeli cyber chief says
June 29 : The number of Iranian cyberattacks against Israel has shot up since the launch of the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran this year, a senior Israeli security official was quoted as saying on Monday. Yossi Karadi, Director General of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, told German newspaper Die Welt that in June 2025 during Israeli military operations against Iran, Israel's authorities registered around 1,600 hostile cyber incidents. During the same month in 2026, the number had jumped to some 4,800 incidents, he told the paper. "Some groups are very skilled," Karadi said, according to the German text of the interview. "We can handle them, but we have to take them seriously. Unlike in the kinetic realm, there's no ceasefire in cyberspace." Karadi said the attacks were directed against systems used by Israel's critical infrastructure, central organisations, small to medium-sized companies and the public, citing law practices and accounting firms as among the smaller ones hit. "So far — and hopefully it stays that way — we've managed to fend off attacks on critical infrastructure," he said. Companies that were easier to penetrate often ended up having their computer systems wiped, he said, without mentioning any names. Iran typically denies carrying out hacking campaigns against other countries while reporting attacks on itself.
The Path To A September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation)
The Path To A September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation) By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities The Path to a September Rate Cut (despite AI inflation) A lot has changed in the past 24 hours. After Thursday’s CNBC interview, it seemed obvious (to me) that I needed to write about how there is a real path to a Fed Rate Cut in September. Not only has the market priced in a 75% chance of a hike in September, and 1.25 hikes by the December meeting, most have also taken any chance of a cut off the table. I think that is missing the path that I believe Warsh is trying to create. We argued last weekend, The Fed and Rates, that Warsh had curtailed the tail risk on the long end of the curve. We switched from bearish to neutral on the long end of the curve (10s went from 4.46% to 4.37% this week). The more we think about it, the more we believe that he has started us on a path, that despite his hawkish rhetoric, sets up for a cut in September to be followed by another cut in October, just ahead of the midterms. Two things occurred, making me rethink today’s topic: Iran and doubts about the AI trade. Those two topics are important enough that we need to at least address them, but in the end, we decided to focus on the path to rate cuts, as the other two stories will take time to play out. Iran, Attacks Resume, But Ceasefire is Not Officially Broken Iran and the U.S. exchanged fire on Friday and Saturday, and fighting continues to be a risk this weekend. Academy published a SITREP on The U.S. Strikes Iranian Targets over Ceasefire Violation. For now, the working assumption is that this round of back-and-forth attacks will not derail the discussions. That both sides were “flexing” to remind the other side of why they are at the table. If the ceasefire breaks down, the hostilities escalate, and the oil trade is once again disrupted, then the odds of a September rate cut look bleak, but for now, that is not our base case on Iran. There are two things that have not gotten the attention they deserve with respect to oil prices: The U.S. drained the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) rapidly and to its limit, which kept oil prices capped, but that ability is largely gone, so something needs to be done. Providing sanction relief to Iranian oil may be as important as re-opening the Strait. Providing sanction relief not only brings more Iranian oil to the market than before, but it also lets them move the oil they were already sending (above sanctioned limits) with a higher degree of flexibility and transparency. The fact that the concept of OPEC seems to be in tatters doesn’t hurt either. Admirals Joyner and Whitworth, along with Bret Lowry, Maria Donnelly and I (Peter Tchir), touched on the f ragility of the peace between Iran and the U.S. in this month’s Around the World Podcast (iTunes and Spotify). The podcast also provides an update on our take on the Russia/Ukraine war, Cuba (which doesn’t get the attention it deserves), and of course, China and macro. We need to keep a close eye on Iran, but for now, we see us limping along the path to discussing the details of the rather vague MOU that both sides seem to interpret very differently. Questioning the AI Growth Story We continue to see two economies. The AI and Data center economy and the rest of the economy. The former has been generating the jobs, the growth, and the earnings. The SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as if anyone, anywhere doesn’t know what the SOX is at this time) hit a high on Monday before dropping almost 10% from there. Micron’s earnings call helped generate a rebound on Thursday, but that proved to be short-lived. Questions are swirling around the spending. The cost of the buildout (more on that later). The utility of AI versus the cost of using AI. At some level, is the cost of using AI rising even faster than the benefits? The growing angst about AI and Robotics (in our AI Revolution pieces) continues to grow and is something the AI companies need to aggressively address before it becomes a problem (via legislation or taxes, for example). This isn’t a debate that will be answered today, but it does seem like the market is starting to rethink valuations. Stories were circulating that OpenAI may delay their highly anticipated IPO from this year to 2027. Since there is no official timetable, it is difficult to evaluate the veracity of such news, but it did little to help market sentiment. It is always risky (and not wise) to publish a chart that one does not really understand. But rarely has the T-Report been accused of being risk averse and wise, so here it goes. According to Bloomberg the Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index (is a daily statistical benchmark to measure the effective expenditure level of the actively traded broad LLM Market, measuring price per million tokens). Say that ten times quickly! I really don’t know how good this index is at measuring what it tries to measure (and it is in its infancy in any case), but it seems like something worth paying attention to as we all try to figure out where we are headed on AI spend (not just the spending to build out AI and data centers, but the actual spending on the compute they provide). For what it’s worth, credit spreads in the sector started to widen recently. Not that problematic and certainly not enough to derail the borrowing to spend, but it is always worth paying attention to credit. Expect more questions about valuations, even with good news, let alone with bad news. The Path to a September Rate Cut Let’s get to the “ fun ” part of today’s Report. We will lay out a case for September Rate Cuts that is entirely consistent with Warsh’s messaging. We will do this, step by step. Some of the “steps” may seem to be disjointed, but I think they all tie well together. Miran and The Neutral Rate Let’s just go back in time, before the U.S. attacked Iran. Miran was the administration’s inside person on the Fed. I didn’t like that he voted to cut every single time, but I think he did a lot of good work on the Neutral Rate. The Neutral Rate, like R* and many other things in the field of economics, sounds precise, but is incredibly difficult to measure. There is a range of what the Neutral Rate is at any given time. That range moves along with the economy and technology. I felt attacking the neutral rate, and arguing that it was lower than the previous Fed had thought, was a solid argument towards getting cuts. You could probably justify 50 to 100 bps of cuts, just based on arguing that the prior Fed had been wrong on where the neutral rate was. It is not an accident that I try to frame this as the “new” Fed blaming the “old” Fed for mistakes. It is consistent with this admin (and every other administration), to blame prior administrations for mistakes. It is often reserved for Presidents, but the tactic can be applied more broadly. While no one is talking about the neutral rate today, I think this work will become relevant again. STOP WITH THE PCE CHATTER! Surprisingly, few things make my head explode (though high on the list is The Big Short’s portrayal of just a few people seeing cracks in the housing market, when lots of people saw the issue, but got stopped out because they timed it wrong). But on Thursday my head nearly exploded, as I heard over and over that “ PCE, The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ” did whatever it did. I don’t know what it did because the PCE is NOT this Fed’s preferred measure. I’m not even sure if it was Powell’s favorite measure. I’m pretty positive Bernanke said it was the best measure. Maybe Yellen did too? Maybe Powell, though that doesn’t stand out. But I can pretty much guarantee you that Warsh doesn’t stay awake at night looking at PCE data. The Data Source Task Force I keep raising my hand (though I’m not sure that is a thing), but I’d love to be on the data source task force. Garbage In, Garbage Out. This is where we square the circle on Warsh’s tough stance on inflation, with achieving a September Rate Cut. Which data set do you believe? The blue line is Owners ’ Equivalent Rent of Residences. It feeds into CPI. You can read the BLS Description. I challenge anyone to read that and argue it reflects anything in the world of renting shelter today. In our “beloved” CPI, OER didn’t peak until the middle of 2023. Even then it “peaked” at 8%. Zillow peaked at almost 16% back in early 2022! For anyone who remembers the rental market post-Covid, which metric seems right? Remember Team Transitory, who was still going ahead with QE while “contemplating” a rate cut, basing their assessment on inflation in shelter on OER versus something actually seen in the real world? What is the BLS & Cleveland Fed New Tenant Repeat Rent NTRR YoY index? If you guessed, worst name ever for an index, you are probably correct! It is an index that the Cleveland Fed introduced (with little fanfare) to try to track rents. Guess what? It tracks the Zillow index pretty darn well! So, Warsh doesn’t even need to go to outside sources! The Task Force can ask the somewhat obvious question – Why don’t we use the index that the smart people in Cleveland created? They did this work for a reason! They know OER is flawed. Maybe OER needs to be in CPI because it takes an act of Congress to change the CPI calculation (because it is used for Social Security benefits). But maybe, just maybe, someone at the Fed can say we should base monetary policy on something that resembles the real world, instead of some archaic, obsolete metric? Two things come out of this work: The Team Transitory mistake was waiting too long to tighten monetary policy, because they were looking at the wrong data. Affordability, not inflation, is the bigger problem people face, and the affordability problem was a 2021/2022 problem, that was NEVER picked up accurately by the inflation data. Now let’s go back to PCE and bring back Truflation. I put the “green” line for inflation target at 2.9% rather than 2%. Yes, we have been “conditioned” to treat 2% as the target, but Warsh did “hint” that the left side (i.e., “big figure”) is more important than the total or “rounded” number. Sure, 2.9% isn’t 2%, but expect to be “conditioned” over the coming months to see that 2 point something is close enough to 2. Truflation core is currently at 1.45% and has been below 1.8% since February. Truflation produces real-time, daily inflation indices and other economic data to provide a more transparent and current view of the market than traditional government-reported metrics. Unlike monthly, survey- based methods, Truflation’s indices are compiled using extensive datasets (you had me at real time. You also had me at datasets). It is also quite obvious, that had Team Transitory even glanced at Truflation we might have moved to tighter monetary policy sooner? The same two mistakes that show up in housing show up in this as well: The Team Transitory mistake was waiting too long to tighten monetary policy, because they were looking at the wrong data. Affordability, not inflation, is the bigger problem people face, and the affordability problem was a 2021/2022 problem, that was NEVER picked up accurately by the inflation data. The Data Source Task Force will come back with data that provides cover to cut and that data is likely better for basing decisions on, than the data the Fed has been wedded to! Affordability NOT Inflation I’m not even sure how to “fix” this chart, but I will figure it out (maybe with the help of AI). We don’t look at the CPI data series very often. We tend to focus on monthly or annual changes. But affordability is the cumulative effect and that is what is hitting people. Given what we saw with Truflation and with rent, I suspect that CPI understates the real-world problem – by a LOT. And the problem is primarily a 2021 and 2022 problem! I think there are cases to be made around past mistakes being made because the wrong data was used. Avoiding future mistakes by looking at the correct data makes sense! The Impact of the War Being “Over” We can quibble about whether the war is over or not, but going back to Academy’s SITREP, we expect peace talks to continue, and the flow of oil to also continue. Yes, there are problems in the energy ecosystem. We are “higher for longer” in prices, from oil out to January, to diesel, etc., but by all accounts the worst is behind us. Why would we possibly be pricing in war impacts on inflation, when we seem to be in some new status quo? Maybe I spend too much time with geopolitical experts, but we don’t see a return to full hostilities, or significantly higher oil prices. Again, the removal of sanctions is a big deal. The Administration’s Goals Have NOT Changed The President didn’t wake up one day a few weeks ago, and tell Warsh, go ahead and hike. The President, as I believe he reiterated again this week, says he knows a lot about real estate and lower rates help real estate. So, you can believe that Warsh is truly hawkish, that Bessent no longer cares about 3, 3, 3, and the President is oblivious to his hand-picked Fed Chair being hawkish (a chair who will likely spend Thanksgiving dinner at the home of his father-in-law, a large Trump donor), or you can think about what “master plan” is behind all of this. Imagine (it is easy if you try) that Warsh convinced Trump that sounding dovish right now would be a disaster. Imagine (again, it is easy if you try) that he convinced the President to let me sound hawkish on inflation. That my hawkish message will control the long end of the yield curve (which it did). That we will convince every reporter and Wall Street analyst to believe we are going to hike and fight inflation. That we are retaining our independence (which they will to a degree). And then Mr. President, this is the “good” part, data will start rolling our way. Inflation is already overpriced and with the war ending, it will come down more. Then, we will argue (persuasively, because it is true) that we should use other sources of data that show lower inflation. Then, Mr. President, we will dazzle them with “neutral rate” mumbo jumbo. It has always been mumbo jumbo, but we will use it to our advantage. Then, when the hawks and “dumocrats” (or is it spelled with a b?) say we are not protecting the people against inflation, we will point out it is all about affordability and the prior administration and “their” Fed (despite Powell being appointed by Trump) being “too late” resulting in “the mess” we are in. You can agree or disagree with anything I just wrote on “political” grounds or otherwise, but can you really argue that it cannot play out that way? AI and Data Center Inflation Do you know what sort of spending is not affected by 50 bps of hikes? Spending by companies trading at 100x some multiple! (Ok, probably some hyperbole here, again, but seriously, 50 bps of hikes is meaningless to the data center/AI build). Just look at the price of electricity. Hiking to slow down AI/Data center spending (which is inflationary for now), will be incredibly ineffective/useless. The people hurt by 50 bps of hikes aren’t the ones driving inflation, they are the ones trying to stay one step ahead of the Repo Man (still a bizarre movie). AAPL dropped after announcing some price hikes. The price hikes on relatively expensive things to begin with (the upper part of the k rather than the lower part). But the market, I believe, perceived that those price hikes would not be absorbed easily. If one of the largest consumer product companies raises prices and the market questions their ability to pass on costs, what does that mean for the average company selling to consumers? I don’t read that as inflationary. Someone in my stream, who I cannot seem to find at the moment, pointed out that some of the survey data pointed to increases in prices paid, and declines in prices received. Bad for margins, but hardly inflationary. Anecdotally, and this was somewhat confirmed by a chip company we met with recently. Remember when they were “giving away” memory? I looked at updating my 5-year-old desktop. I have 64 gig of RAM. I do remember paying “up” for the upgrade. While today’s RAM is better, faster, etc., I was shocked, that most desktops came with 32 gig as standard and 64 gig was a relatively costly upgrade. This feeds back into the “ are AI/Data Centers getting too expensive” question? And yes, it is inflationary, but has nothing to do with the true affordability or the inflation problems many are dealing with. Bottom Line Look for the market to start pricing in rate cuts. If there is one “pound the table message” I’d give, it is lower yields at the front end of the curve. The “hike” community is applying the wrong data to this Fed. I’m less clear on the long end, but I’m neutral, to even slightly bullish on 10s. Bessent wants a 3 handle. Warsh took out the tail risk. There are all sorts of headwinds facing the longer end of the yield curve, but I think with some “appropriate” timing, the admin can launch Operation Twist with some other tools and force the long end lower. I’m far from certain on AI/Data Center valuations. I think with recent weakness, go heavily overweight energy, especially nuclear across the globe. As the President focuses on domestic issues, energy and electricity production remains front and center. Even Europe is nearing that point. Lean heavily on ProSec and overweight the biotech/pharma component, while underweight the chip component (still a critical part of ProSec but not where the best value is). Look for credit spreads to come under some pressure, as the big tech/data center/AI/space issuers have more to do and are less price sensitive than we are used to, because their multiples allow them to be less price sensitive. Just like their potential to issue more equity (after years of buybacks) is weighing on their equity. While Bitcoin and crypto in general aren’t moving markets like they once did (thanks to prediction markets and leveraged ETFs, etc.), the losses in crypto may slow down the “gambling” crowd, which won’t help equities in general, especially the high-flyer, momentum stocks that have benefited most from this crowd. Good luck and get ready for another short week, that will probably feel much longer than 4 days! Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 16:20
US says no casualties reported in Bahrain and Kuwait attacks by Iran
This is an entry from: Live: Israel strikes south Lebanon day after security deal US says no casualties reported in Bahrain and Kuwait attacks by Iran 28 June 2026 04:41 BST No American casualties, major impacts or damage to US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait had been reported following Iranian attacks claimed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, though the situation remains fluid, a US official told Reuters. The official's comments came after the IRGC said it had targeted the US Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain in retaliation for recent American strikes on Iranian military sites. The latest escalation follows days of tit-for-tat attacks linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on commercial vessels, US attacks on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliation against US military assets in the Gulf.
Iran Responds With Drone Attack On Bahrain, Another Hit On Ship In Hormuz
Iran Responds With Drone Attack On Bahrain, Another Hit On Ship In Hormuz A lot of escalation has ensued in the last 48 hours, starting when Thursday Tehran struck a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, after which by the end of Friday US CENTCOM confirmed a series of fresh attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, reportedly on Sirik Island located near the Strait of Hormuz. Referring to Thursday's attack on a vessel off Oman, the Pentagon called it a "powerful response to yesterday’s attack," in the Friday statement. By early Saturday, Iran had re-retaliated and launched a fresh drone attack on Bahrain. Additionally, another ship in the Strait of Hormuz separately came under attack Saturday. The Ever Lovely, via Marine Traffic The Associated Press points to the obvious potential US-Iran deal (MoU) unraveling: "The attacks across the Persian Gulf show the danger of the Iran war again spinning out of control, even after Iran and the U.S. reached an interim deal to try and agree on a final accord to end the conflict" - though neither side has as yet indicated they are walking away from the deal at this point. According to more details from the Saturday developments: Bahrain said it was targeted by "a number" of Iranian drones on Saturday, accusing Tehran of "undermining peace efforts" in the region. In a statement, the country's foreign ministry said it expressed "Bahrain’s condemnation in the strongest terms of the targeting of its territory at dawn today," adding that the attacks were a "blatant threat to the security of citizens and residents". US Central Command announced that American aircraft had hit Iranian missile and drone storage locations as well as coastal radar sites in response to Iran striking the M/V Ever Lovely ship with a one-way attack drone as it navigated the Strait of Hormuz. "The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of Iran’s attack," CENTCOM said, adding that Iranian forces had "clearly violated" the ceasefire agreement. But it remains that Iran is now firing warning shots at ships that haven't cleared permits to transit the Strait of Hormuz under Iran's own protocol, which highlights that deep divisions remain over each side's interpretation of the terms. The latest via Reuters: IRAN WEIGHS WALKING AWAY FROM SWISS TALKS AFTER US STRIKE IRAN MAY HALT SWISS TALKS AFTER US STRIKE ON SIRIK Gulf states have newly condemned "in the strongest terms the treacherous Iranian attacks" on Bahrain, after drones hit the country's territory. The GCC statement further alleged that the Iranians targeted "civilian infrastructure and properties". Other nations weighed in separately, with for example Kuwait's foreign ministry saying "The continuation of these aggressions, amid regional and international efforts aimed at de-escalation and reducing tensions, represents a dangerous undermining of efforts for peace and stability and a threat to the security and stability of the region," on X. Amid all the tit-for-tat, Iran's IRGC is blaming the US for breaking it commitments under the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). A Saturday statement described: According to Article Five of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, arrangements for monitoring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are carried out in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, according to the statement, the United States sought to violate this commitment through various movements and received an appropriate response, and the same will apply in the future. If any aggression is repeated, the response will be broader." According to the precedent that Trump set yesterday. This means that the US will now strike Iran again, and Iran promised a harsh response if this continues. https://t.co/Xhy3fLxKFL — barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) June 27, 2026 Al Jazeera has meanwhile reported Saturday that that IRGC ‘targets’ US military sites in region after attacks - and so the response could be ongoing. Independent journalist and pundit Michael Tracey points out sarcastically but aptly that Indefinitely bombing Iran sounds a lot like what you might call "endless war". And so the weekly tit-for-tat escalation might grow more regular until there simply is no more MoU deal to reference back to at all. Ironically this comes just as Israel, Lebanon, and Israel hailed the signing of a 'trilateral peace framework' in Washington - and as Hezbollah is being pushed out of a political solution in south Lebanon, while the IDF occupation of significant territory remains. Tyler Durden Sat, 06/27/2026 - 09:55
US violates two provisions of US-Iran memorandum — Khamenei’s adviser
TEHRAN, June 27. /TASS/. The United States has violated two provisions of the memorandum on conflict resolution concluded with Iran, and Tehran will respond to each violation, military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mohsen Rezaei said. "By supporting the actions of its proxy forces in the region (referring to Israel’s actions in Lebanon -- TASS), the US violated the first point of the memorandum, and by further escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, it violated the fifth. The response to a violation of any point of the memorandum will be swift and devastating," he wrote on X. US Central Command has confirmed that strikes were carried out on Iranian territory in response to an attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone depots as well as coastal radar facilities. The Islamic Republic, in turn, stated that it had retaliated by attacking US military positions.
Feds Nab Iranian In Montenegro Over Alleged $3.4BN Cyberattack Campaign Targeting US Institutions
Feds Nab Iranian In Montenegro Over Alleged $3.4BN Cyberattack Campaign Targeting US Institutions In the years leading up to President Trump coming into office and ordering Operation Epic Fury targeting the Islamic Republic for regime change, which failed to accomplish this (early-stated) goal, Iran had frequently been accused of orchestrating major cyberespionage campaigns targeting the United States and its allies. But rarely was any individual or group apprehended for such alleged cyberattacks, much less was definitive proof uncovered of backing from the Iranian government. But on Friday there has been a reported capture of an Iranian suspected cyber-attacker, said to be behind dozens of significant sabotage attacks on American institutions, mainly of higher learning. A high-profile international manhunt ended in the coastal town of Kotor on Thursday, as Montenegrin police, reportedly acting on an FBI tip-off, arrested an Iranian-Turkish dual national accused of masterminding a catastrophic, decade-long cyberwar against US infrastructure. via Reuters The 39-year-old suspect, identified by authorities only as "A.B.", is wanted by the United States for allegedly orchestrating cyberattacks that inflicted a staggering $3.4 billion in damages. The suspect is facing a laundry list of charges from a New York court - among them computer fraud, hacking, identity theft, organized crime. Authorities allege that from 2013 onwards he carried out "massive hacking attacks" systematically targeting American intellectual property. Astoundingly this included more than 150 US universities, which saw their networks infiltrated and proprietary data plundered. The actions apparently weren't just for profit, as investigators allege the stolen data and compromised university accounts were weaponized "for the benefit of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian beneficiaries, including universities." However, it's as yet unclear what evidence exists for this, or the degree to which authorities have found ties to state entities or intelligence - but one can imagine that operations of this scale might likely have had state backing. The suspect is currently being held ahead of an appearance before a court in the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica, which will ultimately rule on the US extradition request - something which will likely be granted, given the FBI assist to local investigators. Back in 2018, the Department of Justice unsealed a sweeping indictment that accused nine Iranian nationals of hacking universities and other organizations to steal academic research and data. 🇲🇪🇮🇷🇺🇸 An accused IRGC hacker who targeted 150+ American universities just got arrested, at a beach resort in Montenegro. The numbers are staggering: $3.4 billion in damage. Stolen credentials allegedly funneled straight to Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Montenegro police picked… pic.twitter.com/koflMD3q5Q — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 26, 2026 So far, US authorities have not specifically indicated whether the latest arrest is connected to that prior case, leaving open the question of whether "A.B." was a lone operator or part of a much larger state-backed or intelligence-linked apparatus. Tyler Durden Sat, 06/27/2026 - 08:45
Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment
Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment Futures point to a lower start for cash trading on the last day of the week, as tech stocks dragged global indexes lower following renewed selling in chipmakers, while a report that OpenAI could postpone plans to go public also weighed on sentiment. The volatility reflects a valuation test, profit‑taking and flow-driven positioning, according to Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit, who suggests it’s a “temporary correction within a still-intact long-term AI growth trend.” As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.1%, while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. In premarket trading, semiconductor names, including Micron and optical stocks were broadly lower following news of OpenAI’s IPO delay; the "chip paying" hyperscalers showing moderate gains as the equilibrium seems to shift away from chip stocks. A selloff in Korean chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a second trading suspension in Seoul within days. Oil resumed its slide, failing to lift stocks but offering a fillip to bonds. Bond yields declined further led by the front-end of the curve: 2y is down 3.5bp; USD is lower. Oil fell -2.74 this morning to $69.18. US economic data calendar includes May goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Microsoft is the is a top gainer as investors rotate into software stocks from hardwar (Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%, Amazon unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla -1.1%). Semiconductor stocks are broadly lower amid investor concerns over the staying power of chip demand given price increases seen across Apple and Xbox products. A potential delay to OpenAI’s IPO, as reported by the New York Times, also dampened risk sentiment. ON Semiconductor (ON) slides 14% after the chipmaker agreed to an all-stock deal to buy Synaptics. Analysts worry that buying a business that’s exposed to smart devices and the consumer market may distract a push to supply for AI data centers. Synaptics (SYNA) is up 4.2%. Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains about 1% after the space firm said NASA selected it to provide three Electron launches for two missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2, from early 2027. Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) climbs 5% after Jefferies upgraded the drug developer to buy citing durability of its experimental therapy to treat pancreatic cancer. Wise (WSE) climbs 5% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations. In other corporate news, EV maker Polestar will exit the US after the Commerce Department banned the company due to a rule prohibiting Chinese software in cars, according to the WSJ. And Volkswagen is looking to cut tens of thousands of additional jobs and may shutter factories in a push to be more competitive, Manager Magazin reported. Markets are capping a volatile week in which shifting sentiment around the once-relentless tech trade whipsawed stocks, with traders parsing everything from spending plans to corporate earnings. Investors pulled money from US equities for the first time in three months, with record withdrawals from tech. Friday’s bout of weakness came as price increases in products from Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. triggered fears about the staying power of chip demand. A New York Times report that OpenAI could delay its initial public offering until 2027 also brought into focus how volatility could affect the sector. In Japan, OpenAI backer SoftBank Group Corp. tumbled following the NYT report, sending the Nikkei 225 down 4.2%. The tech sector led declines in Europe as well, with the Stoxx 600 on course for its worst performance since the middle of May. “Technology remains a crowded trade, positioning is relatively tight, and that makes the sector more sensitive to negative news flow or sharp moves in individual names,” said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. AI valuations relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have fallen to their lowest levels since the Iran war, with AI stocks now trading at just a 15% P/E premium to ex-AI stocks, notes Bloomberg. The case for the AI trade remains intact, but the risk of getting it wrong has risen considerably with leverage, crowding and dispersion in focus. Investors say the roller-coaster week shows that while the case for the AI-trade is still strong, the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over. While there hasn’t been panic selling, the cracks are real, and extreme investor positioning means the easy days could be a thing of the past. The most sensible strategy “is to maintain well-diversified portfolios across geographies, styles, sizes, companies, and sectors,” said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. “In a couple of weeks, the earnings season will kick off, and leading indicators are pointing in the right direction. We expect corporate results to become a positive catalyst.” Also in AI, the Pentagon has revised its doctrine on how the US military picks its targets in battle, opening the way for AI to make critical wartime decisions in the future. In politics, New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board voted to freeze some apartment rents, handing Mayor Mamdani a major political victory. Commerce Secretary Lutnick intervened to delay the opening of a new bridge between the US and Canada and is pressing to renegotiate the deal for a larger share of toll revenue. The Stoxx 600 is down by 0.6%, with energy and technology equities leading declines, while food beverage and personal care drug stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Friday: Wise shares climb as much as 8.2% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations Pandora shares rise as much as 5.1% after BofA upgraded the stock to buy from underperform, saying it has a “clear catalyst path ahead as main pressures subside and LFL [like-for-like sales] stabilizes” Barratt Redrow and Bellway climb after Berenberg upgrades both stocks to buy, saying depressed valuations, strong balance sheets and attractive capital returns create selective opportunities in UK housebuilders despite a downbeat market outlook Koninklijke KPN shares rise as much as 2.5% after the Dutch telecoms firm was upgraded at Citi, as analysts said there is an opportunity for investors to increase their holding in a “quality stock” following a recent pullback Technology shares declined in Europe, following Asia peers lower, after Apple slumped Thursday following price increases on its products. A report that OpenAI may delay its IPO also weighed on sentiment Zalando shares fall as much as 11% after the German Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin opened a probe into the online fashion retailer’s 2025 report over suspected violations of accounting rules Accor shares drop as much as 2.8%, pulling back from an all-time high after the hotelier was downgraded at Jefferies. Analysts believe any potential recovery in the Middle East is already priced in INWIT shares slip as much as 2.1% after a downgrade to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs, which sees “heightened operating and structural uncertainty” for the Italian telecoms company’s investment case Asian stocks resumed their decline after a brief reprieve the prior day, as concerns about the sustainability of recent tech gains weighed on sentiment. Trading in Asian stocks has remained volatile, with investors torn between whether the rally in technology shares is stretched or backed by confidence in continued AI-driven growth. In the end, tech stocks dragged Asia lower, with the Kospi falling 5.8% and the Nikkei 225 dropping 4.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC weighing most on the gauge. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led declines. For the week, the index has fallen more than 4%, on track for its worst showing since early March. The selloff comes after Apple said it raised prices to offset cost hikes caused by an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, dragging supplier shares across the region lower. For some, it underscored just how vulnerable the chip rally — which has lifted benchmarks to repeated highs — has become. “After recent performance, it’s not difficult to expect some consolidation,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee. Apple price hikes highlighted “memory shortage impact on consumer electronics prices and part of the inflation narrative.” In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down by 0.1% and the euro back to testing $1.14, while sterling has climbed back above $1.32. The Norwegian krone is underperforming among major currencies on the slide in oil prices. In rates, a falling oil price is lifting short-end bonds across Europe and the US, with a pullback in bets on central bank rate hikes. US two-year yields falling by four basis points and outperforming moves in the same direction in Europe and the UK. treasury futures hold gains led by front-end tenors, extending Thursday’s yield-curve steepening move, as oil prices resume their slide toward pre-war levels and short-term rate products price in less Fed tightening in the coming months. 2-year yields are lower by 3bp-4bp, long-end tenors by less than 1bp, steepening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by 3bp; 10-year, down 2bp near 4.375%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by around 1bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. At least two borrowers stood down Thursday as three priced a combined $5.4 billion, paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3 times oversubscribed. In commodities, Brent is sliding by nearly 4% and below $73/barrel and WTI futures are sinking toward $69/barrel and headed for biggest weekly drop in a month after transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated; Gold little changed but holding above $4,000/oz. US economic data calendar includes May advance goods trade balance, May retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed. This follows an Iranian strike on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship after failing to follow the set route: RTRS Traffic through Strait of Hormuz slows after attack on ship: RTRS US Chip Stocks Decline on Worries Over Memory Prices, OpenAI IPO: BBG US President Trump said we have a new market coming up called Iran and added that Iran wants to make a deal with us very badly and thinks they will make a deal. Venezuela Seeks Survivors as Quakes Death Toll Hits 235; Quake Crisis to Test Legitimacy of Rodriguez Regime: BBG OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Year: NYT SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT US President Trump's administration asked OpenAI to restrict the launch of its next model, GPT-5.6, to only a small set of government-approved partners before a wider release due to security concerns: Axios. Russian hawks urge Putin to escalate war, drop US talks as Ukraine strikes deep: RTRS Volkswagen weighs up to 100,000 job cuts and four plant closures in overhaul: RTRS On immigration, Supreme Court accedes to Trump's restrictive agenda: RTRS Wall Street Realizes It Needs More Than Money to Counter Mamdani: WSJ Representatives Gottheimer (D) and Moolenaar (R) are reportedly introducing legislation that would allow US cloud companies to report suspected foreign misuse of advanced AI computing: Axios Novak Djokovic Joins General Atlantic in His Wall Street Debut: BBG BofA's weekly flow report notes USD 25.5bln out of cash, USD 5.0bln out of stocks, USD 16.6bln into bonds, USD 0.5bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 9.1 (prev. 9.2) A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were pressured following the choppy performance stateside, where markets were indecisive amid two-way trade in tech, a recent data deluge and a rebound in oil. The overnight deterioration in risk sentiment coincided with renewed selling in tech after Apple raised prices of some products by nearly 20% and with OpenAI leaning towards delaying its IPO until next year. ASX 200 was rangebound with the index cushioned as the underperformance in tech, telecoms and healthcare was partially offset by resilience in some defensive stocks. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses as tech stocks dominated the list of worst performers, with SoftBank down by a double-digit percentage owing to its large exposure to AI and semiconductors. KOSPI remained volatile with the slump triggering a sidecar and eventual circuit breaker alongside notable declines in both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the sell-off across the region amid the tech rout Top Asian News China sharpened tools for retaliating against foreign sanctions with Beijing preparing a new law that would add to its ability to punish foreign companies and individuals deemed to harm Chinese interests, according to WSJ. PBoC has requested that some commercial banks increase lending in June amid ongoing weak credit demand, according to reports. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) are entirely in the red in the last session of the week, driven by another day of losses in South Korea (SK Hynix -8.4%, Samsung -5.3%). Some analysts are citing Apple's price hikes on products due to memory chip shortages as a catalyst for the recent sell-off, raising concerns that rising component costs could curb demand for devices. An analyst at Javelin Wealth Management also said the recent gains for chipmakers could come at the expense of product manufacturers. The losses in South Korean giants have weighed on European chip names (Infineon -3.1%, ASML -1.0%) and indices composed of technology companies (DAX 40 -0.8%, AEX -0.6%). European sectors highlight a negative bias. Optimised Personal Care (+0.8%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.6%) and Utilities top the sector pile. Energy (-1.5%) is the underperformer again, with Technology (-1.4%) and Financial Services (-1.1%) also lagging. Top European News The Times' Swinford reported that it is likely to be a two-horse race between Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood for chancellor, with allies of Streeting say they do not think he will get the job. FX USD finds itself under modest pressure. DXY at a 101.18 base, but well clear of the 100.76 WTD low, with the index set to see the week out around the middle of its range. In brief, a tale of two halves for the index which began the week on the front foot before reversing after Thursday’s data deluge and continuing to slip since. EUR outperforms as a result of the continued USD pressure. No real move to the ECB CES, which showed a moderation in the 12-month price view and an uptick in the growth view. The growth revision is not enough to provide comfortable space for further tightening, and equally the price moderation is not sufficient to take another move off the table. Nonetheless, the price moderation does add to the post-PMI & Lagarde dovish tilt we have seen in recent days. In more detail, EUR/USD has breached 1.14 to the upside. Picking up gradually across the morning, as the US data on Thursday has and continues to permit an unwinding of some of the yield differential moves we have seen in recent days, with the Fed more-hawkish and ECB mixed but net less-hawkish, particularly from Lagarde as referenced. However, while it has hit a 1.1407 peak, EUR remains in the red on the week and continuing the near unbroken downward trend of the last seven weeks. Elsewhere, G10s generally are slightly firmer against the USD. With GBP the next-best behind EUR, comfortably above 1.3200 and flat/firmer WTD, but again, still towards post June policy announcement lows, as BoE expectations coalesce around the on hold for the foreseeable narrative, despite the hawkish dissenters. CAD, JPY and CHF all faring around equally. Of those, USD/JPY participants remain on watch for potential intervention risk, particularly as Japanese authorities tend to target Friday’s and go with the market move rather than fighting it. USD/JPY just above a 161.53 base, and while the JPY is firmer today the bearish trend remains near-enough unbroken at a weekly level over the last month and a half. Today is spot month/quarter-end. As a reminder, Barclays model was neutral overall for the USD against all majors, formed of a moderate USD buying signal on the month-end, but countered by a strong USD sell signal for quarter-end Commodities The US-Iran situation remains complex. It was reported that the IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, after it attempted to traverse through the Strait through a route not designated by the Iranians. This led the UN to pause its evacuation plans for ships around the Strait. Despite the attack, Bloomberg data continues to indicate that ships continue to traverse through the Hormuz, highlighting that traffic continues to flow in “both directions”. On the Lebanon front. The US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks were expected to conclude on Wednesday, but were then extended into today. Israeli sources have suggested that there has been some progress, but no deal has been reached thus far. The negotiations focus on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon; there may be a chance that Israel will only withdraw from areas where operations have already been concluded, and continue such action in other parts of the region. Therefore, the risk is that Iran is not satisfied by the outcome of the talks, and potentially restart closures of the Strait. Crude benchmarks are in the red, with WTI (-3.5%) and Brent (-3.4%) holding at the bottom end of their respective USD 68.98-71.86/bbl and USD 72.14-75.13/bbl ranges. Despite the flare-up on the Strait in the prior session and the continued lack of progress between Lebanon and Israel, crude prices continue to slip. It is the case that as long as ships continue to traverse the Strait, other friction points can be ignored… at least in the short term. Spot gold (+0.2%) is ever so slightly firmer this morning, but continues to remain near recent troughs. Today, the yellow-metal holds just above the USD 4k/oz mark, and within a USD 3,982-4,039/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly slightly lower this morning, with 3M LME copper currently off by c. 0.6%. It currently holds around USD 13.25k/t and within a USD 13,088.3-13,281/t range. Saudi Aramco reopened the Ras Tanura oil loading operations after a prolonged halt, with two supertankers loading oil at Ras Tanura on Friday, while another is awaiting loading, according to shipping data. Several Japanese-related vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz as part of IMO evacuation plans, which have since been suspended following the attack on a cargo ship, according to Mainichi. China's MOFCOM released a list of non-state Chinese companies eligible for oil imports. Kazakhstan cut the gas production at the Karachaganak gas field after Ukraine drone attacks on Russia's Orenburg gas processing plant. Raw gas from the field is usually delivered to the Orenburg plant. Kazakhstan Energy Minister said we may consider fuel exports to Russia if there is an official request. Russia is considering a short-term ban on diesel exports for a few months, TASS reported. Central Banks Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said it is difficult to determine whether inflation pressures are persistent or temporary, while noting inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and some of that is being driven by one-off factors. He added that inflation remains more concerning on the services side and that spending based on expected future gains makes him concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Goolsbee also said there are some signs of improvement in services inflation, but it remains well above where it needs to be, as well as stated that core inflation it is still too high and trending in the wrong direction, while services-driven core CPI is more concerning than inflation driven by goods or oil-related items. Furthermore, he stated that wages are not a particularly good leading indicator for inflation and that inflation could rise before wages do, adding that inflation needs to be monitored closely. Geopolitics US President Trump said they have a new market coming up called Iran, and that Iran wants to make a deal with them very badly, while he thinks that they will make a deal and stated the Strait is open. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed and that any framework for passage through Hormuz must be in coordination with Iran, otherwise it will be suspended from the designated route. N12's Segal posted after a conversation with a source on the Iranian issue, "His opinion on the agreement and the situation is much less negative than what has been written anywhere else, including here." Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that if the US is unable to contain and control the Zionist regime, Iran will not tolerate any threat against itself and considers it its right to respond to these dangerous actions. Israeli Embassy in Washington said due to extension in the discussions, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon mediated by the US will continue on Friday for a fourth day, according to a Kan reporter. Israeli Energy Minister said the withdrawal from southern Lebanon is not under consideration and would be rejected even if requested by US President Trump, while he stated that Israel does not plan to occupy all of Lebanon, but intends to establish full security control over the entire Gaza Strip. Israeli PM Netanyahu said that we will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary and have ordered the army to have complete freedom of action to counter any threat against our forces or residents of the North. UN said the Lebanon ceasefire is largely holding, though Israeli military operations inside Lebanon continue. It was separately reported that Israel's military conducted airstrikes on Beit Yahun, Lebanon, while Israeli tank movements were reported in Wadi Saluqi and Bint Jbeil, Lebanon. IAEA chief Grossi said it's undeniable we have an agreement that IAEA will have access to Iran for inspection, while added that they hope to resume their work in Iran soon. GCC Secretary General said the proposed USD 300bln for the reconstruction of Iran has not been presented to us officially or unofficially, and it has not been discussed with the US, Sky News Arabia reported. Russia claimed to have shut down 660 Ukrainian drones overnight, Moscow's mayor reported that 47 drones were intercepted that were heading to the capital. North Korean leader Kim oversaw the testing of key weapons, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: May P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% 10:00 am: Jun F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50, prior 48.9 11:30 am: Fed’s Kashkari at Aspen Ideas Panel DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I can pretty much guarantee the imminent end of the extreme record-breaking heatwave currently engulfing most of Europe, and a very low chance it will ever return. Last night my wife spent a small fortune ordering industrial fans for everyone's bedrooms. So stand by for the next ice-age. There seems to be a mini ice-age in Asia this morning with tech again selling off. The KOSPI is slumping -8.01% as I type with the Nikkei -4.54% lower. SoftBank is around -14% lower after the NYT suggested that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. This follows a sharp decline for the Magnificent 7 (-2.54%) yesterday. The tech mega cap index moved deeper into correction territory after the news that Apple (-6.12%) would be raising the price of its Macs and iPads. That came in response to demand surges for memory and storage, but the news played into broader concerns that AI data centres were generating inflationary pressures. Marion and Camilla in my team wrote an excellent piece last week looking at the recent parabolic increase in memory prices, and its potential macro impact. Apple's announcement yesterday emphasizes some of these themes. See it on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here. Elsewhere in Asia the Shanghai Comp is -2.14% lower with the Hang Seng -1.87%. S&P 500 (-0.71%), NASDAQ (-1.45%) and European Stoxx (-0.79%) futures are also notably lower. In terms of data, headline and core core Tokyo CPI were both a tenth higher than expected at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively. Ahead of that, markets had actually generally put in a decent performance yesterday amid encouraging US data even as oil prices rebounded from 3-month lows to post their biggest rise in three weeks. Most notably, the PCE inflation data for May (the Fed’s target measure) came in on the softer side, which pushed back a bit against the building narrative towards Fed rate hikes in recent weeks. Indeed, headline PCE was only up +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was at a softer +0.3% on the month as expected. That PCE release helped markets to dial back expectations of Fed rate hikes. For instance, the amount of hikes priced by December fell to 34bps by the close, down -1.5bps on the day. So there was growing speculation again that the Fed might not need to hike at all this year, even as Fed officials remain cautious on the inflation outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that core inflation is "still well too high and it's trending the wrong way", while New York Fed President Williams called inflation “unquestionably elevated”. Nonetheless, front-end Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.12%, its lowest since last week’s Fed meeting, while the 10yr yield (+0.1bps) was little changed at 4.39%. They are down another -3.3bps and -2.2bps respectively this morning. Whilst the PCE release was the main focus, several other US releases added to the optimism around the economy. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 215k over the week ending June 20 (vs. 225k expected), so the labour market still appeared in decent shape. Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q1 GDP was also revised up half a point to an annualised rate of +2.1%, suggesting things were on a stronger footing than thought earlier this year. That backdrop of strong data and more dovish Fed pricing meant most US stocks advanced even with some tech wobbles. However, the S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended up narrowly posting a fourth consecutive loss, as the tech sell-off we mentioned at the top dragged. It wasn't all bad news for tech as the Philly Semiconductor index rose +3.59%, with Micron surging +15.7% after Wednesday night's results. And more broadly, both the equal-weighted S&P (+0.67%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.71%) had solid days. The market mood was also partially disrupted by news that a cargo ship was hit by unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, which also followed reports of some ships turning around while attempting to cross the strait. So that led to some renewed uncertainty over the normalization of shipping, after the number of vessels going through the strait had risen in recent days. Oil prices moved higher following the incident. Brent crude rose +2.06% to $75.26/bbl, despite have traded as low as $72.06/bbl earlier in the session, which was below its $72.48/bbl level on February 27, the day before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This morning Brent is back down -1.95% to $73.79 as I type. Over in Europe, investors continued to price out the chance of further ECB rate hikes. In fact, the number of hikes priced by the December meeting fell to just 26bps by the close, down -3.2bps on the day. So that helped to push the STOXX 600 (+0.80%) to a record high by the close, alongside gains for the DAX (+1.03%), the CAC 40 (+0.55%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.65%). A large amount of that will likely reverse at the open this morning with the overnight sell-off. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the 10yr bund yield (-0.8bps) hit a 3-month low of 2.85%, alongside a marginal rise for yields on 10yr OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps). Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the advance goods trade balance for May, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for May and hear from the Fed’s Kashkari and the ECB’s Vujcic. Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:31
IAEA Chief Confirms Nuclear Inspectors Returning To Iran, No Timeline Given
IAEA Chief Confirms Nuclear Inspectors Returning To Iran, No Timeline Given For the first time since the US-Iran MoU was signed earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced it will have access to Iran for official inspections of the country's nuclear facilities. However, a precise timeline for when the inspections are expected to commence was not given. "There is an agreement and to comply with that agreement, the IAEA will have to have access and inspect,” UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said at a news conference in Japan. "We hope to be there soon." "The inspections will indeed take place," he emphasized to reporters. "We will be working on the modalities - dates, procedures, places - very soon." via AFP The agreement signed last week said "explicitly" that the dilution of Iran's highly enriched uranium would be carried out under IAEA supervision, he added. But importantly, Tehran has in the last days made its position clear that it will keep key sites off-limits until a final deal with Washington is reached and sanctions are lifted. US chief negotiator in Switzerland, JD Vance, came away insisting that the IAEA will soon return - which Iranian officials have contradicted. Grossi had further stated in his Friday remarks that the Iranians' pledge to not pursue a nuclear weapon would need "very strong" verification. But he also conceded that thus far the UN agency itself had "barely initiated" talks with Iran on the heels of the formalized MoU agreement with the United States. "I think the objective of this agreement is to ensure that there is no development of nuclear weapons in Iran. The government of Iran has declared quite clearly that this is not their intention," Grossi continued. "But of course intentions are not enough. We have to have a very strong verification system in place... as soon as is practicable," he added. The US administration has so far said that it is not prepared to budge on this issue of thorough inspections. Ironically the 2015 JCPOA under Obama, which Trump has frequently lambasted, included just such an inspection regimen. “It's not over yet, but so far, so good.” Vice President JD Vance praised President Trump's handling of Iran at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, arguing the administration has stayed focused on its original mission despite outside pressure. Vance said Trump's objective… pic.twitter.com/Ab56zctHzo — Fox News (@FoxNews) June 25, 2026 It remains to be seen whether the US can get a better inspection deal in place, or whether any new scenario will fall short of the prior JCPOA. Tehran sees itself in a strong position, and won't so easily accept demands which it deems as giving too much to the US and Israel. Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:05
Montenegro arrests Iran-linked hacker wanted by US
Montenegro arrests Iran-linked hacker wanted by USJune 26, 2026 Montenegro has arrested an Iran-linked hacker wanted by the United States over cyberattacks that allegedly caused $3.4 billion in damage. The arrest is part of a broader US effort to disrupt cyber operations that prosecutors say were carried out on behalf of Iranian state interests. What was the man arrested for? Montenegrin police said the 39-year-old suspect, identified only as A.B., was arrested in the tourist town of Kotor in cooperation with the FBI. He holds Iranian and Turkish citizenship. He is wanted by a federal court in New York on charges including conspiracy to commit computer fraud, hacking and identity theft. Police said that from 2013 onward, A.B. carried out large-scale hacking attacks against US infrastructure, including more than 150 universities. The attacks allegedly caused more than $3.4 billion (nearly €3 billion) in damages. According to Montenegrin authorities, the stolen data and access to compromised university accounts were used for the benefit of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other entities, including Iranian universities. The US Federal Bureau of Investigations worked with authorities in the Balkan state to locate and arrest the suspect. The FBI did not immediately comment on the arrest. What happens next? The suspect is due to appear before a court in the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica, where judges will consider a US request for his extradition. US authorities have repeatedly warned of Iranian state-linked cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure, with intelligence and law enforcement agencies noting an increase in Iranian hacking campaigns this April. Edited by: Darko Janjevic Don't let the algorithm hide the news. If you rely on our team for trusted reporting, please take a moment to select us as your Preferred Source on Google by clicking here and hitting the "star" or "preferred" button, so you'll always see our verified news first.
Trump Requests $88 Billion Supplemental Funding Package Focused On Iran War Funds, Farm Aid, And Ebola Response
Trump Requests $88 Billion Supplemental Funding Package Focused On Iran War Funds, Farm Aid, And Ebola Response President Donald Trump formally asked Congress on Wednesday for $87.6 billion in supplemental appropriations - your tax dollars (for our American readers) - to cover urgent needs stemming from the U.S. military campaign against Iran, provide economic relief to American farmers, and respond to the Ebola outbreak in Central Africa. The request, sent in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, comes as the administration seeks to replenish military stocks and address operational expenses from Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli military effort launched on February 28, 2026. Breakdown of the Funding Request According to the White House letter and reporting from multiple outlets, the package allocates funds across several priorities: Department of War (Pentagon): $67.146 billion - the largest share. This includes approximately $21 billion for munitions to rebuild stockpiles, substantial funding for operations and readiness, $2.4 billion for drones, $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomy, fuel costs, and $12.1 billion for classified programs. American Farmers (USDA): $11.1 billion - $10 billion in temporary economic assistance for row and specialty crops in 2026, plus $1.1 billion to help Florida agricultural producers recover from winter storm damage. Ebola Outbreak Response: $1.4 billion - focused on detection, contact tracing, surveillance, humanitarian assistance in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya, plus medical evacuation and departure support for U.S. citizens. Infrastructure and Other: $500 million for restoration and capital projects in Washington, D.C.; $1 billion toward modernizing Penn Station in New York City; plus smaller amounts for the Department of Energy and other items. The administration described most of the request as addressing “urgent needs related to Operation Epic Fury” while also tackling other critical domestic and international priorities. Background: Operation Epic Fury Operation Epic Fury - the Israeli-US (Master-Blaster) war on Iran which has split the Republican party in exchange for no obvious benefit to Americans who are on the hook for tens of billions of dollars - saw four months of intense fighting from late February to early May 2026. The goal was to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, missile and drone production facilities, navy, air defenses, and efforts to develop or acquire nuclear weapons and related technology. Diplomatic efforts continue, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad aimed at formally ending the conflict within a 60-day window, though disputes remain over issues such as IAEA access to damaged nuclear sites. The Trump administration has characterized the campaign as a decisive success achieved through “peace through strength,” while critics have raised questions about costs, civilian casualties in some strikes, and broader strategic outcomes. Political Reactions and Congressional Outlook The supplemental faces a challenging path in Congress. It requires bipartisan support to advance in the Senate, where 60 votes are typically needed to overcome procedural hurdles. Democrats have largely opposed funding what many describe as an unnecessary or illegal war and are expected to resist the package. Republicans show divisions: Many support replenishing military capabilities and providing farm aid, but some express skepticism about the war’s handling and costs. Farm-state lawmakers are already signaling they may seek to increase the agricultural assistance beyond the proposed $11.1 billion. House Republican leaders have indicated they will review the details carefully, citing Congress’s constitutional role in funding national defense. The request arrives amid broader debates over the administration’s push for a significantly larger Pentagon budget. The package also includes regulatory updates favored by some farm-state Republicans, such as measures related to hemp-derived products and year-round sales of E15 ethanol-blended fuel. These provisions aim to support agricultural interests but have drawn opposition from other sectors. Bundling military, humanitarian, agricultural, and infrastructure spending in one supplemental is a common legislative tactic but often draws criticism for obscuring priorities or adding unrelated items. What Happens Next? Congressional appropriators will now examine the request. Passage is far from guaranteed given partisan divides over the Iran conflict and competing budget priorities. The administration has urged swift action, emphasizing the need to restore military readiness and address other urgent matters. This supplemental represents one of the largest emergency funding requests in recent years, reflecting both the scale of the military operation against Iran and the administration’s efforts to address domestic economic pressures on farmers and global health risks. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 09:00