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strikeApr 14, 2026

After all the talk, is Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports actually doing anything?

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After all the tough talk, is Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz actually doing anything? Experts said the blockade was ‘more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone’ and that Iran has moved vast quantities of its oil offshore After high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend, the future of a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran now appears to rest on a 100-mile waterway between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The United States imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas east of the Strait of Hormuz, which came into effect at 3pm BST on Monday. America’s Central Command warned that vessels will be subject to “interception, diversion and capture” regardless of their flag. More than 15 US warships are in place to support the operation, a senior official told the Wall Street Journal. President Donald Trump threatened that ships sailing from Iranian ports would be subject to “the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea”, referring to the administration’s controversial attacks on boats off the coast of Venezuela. Oil prices surged in response to the threats but the US military insisted that the action would “not impede” movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But despite the rhetoric, a US- sanctioned Chinese tanker, the Rich Starry, appeared to sail straight through the Strait on Tuesday in apparent defiance of Trump’s blockade. What does Trump’s blockade involve? In practice Trump’s blockade will impact vessels departing from Iran’s ports and coastline, regardless of their country of origin. The US has explicitly said it will not target vessels that aren’t linked to Iran or its ports, but those that are will be intercepted, diverted or captured. However, the US leader has also ordered the Navy to hunt down vessels that have paid Iran a transit toll, which includes Chinese tankers and Indian bulk carriers that are not parties to the conflict, according to Professor Barry Appleton, co-director for for international law at New York Law School. “You have a narrow, mine-threatened strait, active hostilities, and now the US Navy is being asked to police every vessel entering or leaving Iranian ports,” he told The Independent. “That's not a blockade. It is more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone.” Has the blockade been working? According to marine traffic data analysed by Kpler, five liquid tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade was in place. For all categories—liquids, LNG, LPG, and dry bulk—a total of eight vessels crossed between 13 and 14 April. “The objective is to constrain Iran’s ability to export crude and condensate, which could eventually lead to production shut-ins.” senior crude analyst,” Johannes Rauball, told The Independent. But Tehran appears to have moved its oil offshore in anticipation of the restrictions and the volumes of its oil in transit also remains elevated, according to Kpler. This week, floating storage of Iranian crude - a method of producing and storing oil and gas on open waters away from land or ports - rose to 42 Mbbls (or 42 million barrels) up from 38 million on Sunday 12 April. Floating storage is defined as crude-carrying tankers that have remained idle and reduced their speed for at least seven days, essentially "waiting for instructions" on water. Because Iranian oil supply is exceeding demand, some tankers have been unable to discharge their load and find buyers. “While any reduction in Iranian exports would primarily impact China, which absorbs the vast majority of these flows, overall availability of Iranian crude is expected to remain ample,” explains Rauball. “We are observing significant concentrations of floating storage near China, including roughly 15 Mbbls in the Yellow Sea and around 7 Mbbls in the South China Sea.” Rauball suggests that this could mean up to 120 days of availability of Iranian crude for China, meaning Iran is unlikely to be impacted by the blockade anytime in the near future due to “substantial volumes already on the water”. “In total, Iranian crude on water—including both floating storage and cargoes in transit—stands at approximately 190 Mbbls,” explains Rauball. “With China typically importing around 1.5 Mbd of Iranian crude, this implies roughly 120 days of cover under current conditions. “As such, even if Iranian crude exports decline, near-term availability is unlikely to tighten significantly, given the substantial volumes already on water.” Furthermore, Iran’s shadow fleet of tankers poses a further challenge to the US navy, shipping experts have warned in comments to the Wall Street Journal, allowing vessels linked to ports to transit undetected using sophisticated methods. According to Lloyd’s List, a falsely-flagged US-sanctioned tanker linked to China exited the Strait early on Tuesday. Chatham House analyst Neil Quilliam says it it “too early to tell” whether Trump’s blockade had been effective. “It certainly complicates the movement of vessels that Iran permits to pass through Hormuz. The passage of the Chinese tanker shows that some ship owners and their crews have a high risk tolerance and are willing to test the US - making it a test of who blinks first. It is a high stakes game.” Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) - that can loiter underwater for up to 96 hours - can also pose a threat to billion-dollar US naval assets, according to political analyst Safi Ghauri. After nearly half a century of sanctions, further structural pressure may not hit Iran as hard as other nations, according to Ashok Kumar, associate professor of political economy at Birkbeck, University of London. “Trump’s plan to ‘blockade the blockade’ is strategically incoherent,” he says. “It’s a gesture of desperation, not strength. Iran has already moved vast quantities of oil offshore, so much of its supply simply sits beyond the reach of any naval cordon.” Could the blockade force a confrontation? Prof Kumar says that the strategy “escalates a confrontation in one of the world’s most fragile chokepoints, where the US and global economy are far more exposed than Iran itself”. Iran has threatened to attack US partners in the Gulf if what it calls “piracy” continues. “It seems to be a tit-for-tat move by the US,” explains Quilliam. “At best, if it remains benign, then it will prevent Iran from exporting its crude, but will lead to an increase in the price of oil. In this scenario, the US aims to increase Iran’s economic pain and bring it back to the negotiating table. This move alone will not persuade the regime to reopen talks, as it has resisted sanctions for over 20 years. “At worst, Iran will challenge the blockade, leading to renewed military confrontation and include new Iranian strikes against energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, notably Saudi Arabia and export facilities in Yanbu on the Red Sea. This will lead to an even bigger hike in oil prices.” Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their repliesComments

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  • Maira ButtBy Maira Butt

    After all the tough talk, is Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz actually doing anything? Experts said the blockade was ‘more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone’ and that Iran has moved vast quantities of its oil offshore After high-stakes pe

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

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The U.S. Central Command reported conducting strikes on Iranian military command centers, missile and drone sites, and air defense systems on Monday evening. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, and Houthi forces declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

Reports indicate that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, while Rystad Energy noted risks of higher oil prices.

Location: Iran
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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.