strikeApr 14, 2026

How a US blockade near the Strait of Hormuz could work and the impact ahead for the global economy

Summary

A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened to impose the blockade after talks to further a fragile ceasefire ended without a deal this past weekend. Iran had previously halted nearly all tanker traffic through the key waterway, allowing only some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees. Enforcing the blockade is likely to demand significant resources from the U.S. Navy and could prompt concerns about military force and international law, experts say. Supply chain analysts, meanwhile, stress that the restrictions could undermine the flow of oil, fertilizer, food and other goods to consumers already facing higher prices.Also read: NATO allies refuse to join Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade From a military standpoint, the biggest challenge will be the enormous volume of shipping traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of the world's traded oil normally passes. A considerable number of ships may be needed to enforce the restrictions, according to Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London.Also read: US military to enforce blockade in Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea - note to seafarers "A lot depends on the early days of the blockade, how many vessels the Americans can seize, how much they can convince vessels attempting to slip through a cordon that they're likely to be seized," Kaushal said. "But in all likelihood, I'd say it will prove difficult for the U.S. to enforce." The strait's narrow confines at least will make the geographic area of concern a limited one, said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University Law Center's National Security Law Program. Still, the amount of traffic that goes through "is going to be a challenge," he said. The U.S. may have to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to reach Iranian ports, Huntley said, a decision that could determine the blockade's legality under international law. International rules also require that any nation enforcing a blockade do so impartially, after issuing an advisory to mariners. "How it is carried out will determine whether it is lawful or not," said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general. "You can't enact a blockade with the goal of starving the civilian population. Even the DOD law of war manual states that neutral vessels carrying relief supplies should be allowed to pass." Few merchant vessels are likely to try to evade a blockade, according to Raul Pedrozo, professor of international law at the Naval War College and a retired Navy captain and JAG officer. They won't want to take their chances against the U.S. Navy, he said. "They see a warship, and they're going to heave to," Pedrozo said. "There are always ways to economize, import, substitute, or just give up on certain things that you can no longer build for want of foreign inputs," Kaushal said. "It can make things a lot harder in a lot of ways, but it doesn't necessarily achieve decisive outcomes." A blockade alone can't sever Iran's economic ties with trading partners, including China and Russia, or cut off access to the Caspian Sea or Central Asia. The blockade also risks an Iranian response that could reignite the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, who specializes in Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran could deploy naval mines, small fast-attack boats and missiles against shipping in response, further disrupting the global economy. "The U.S. wants this to be a short and sweet operation. I don't think that it can be," Nadimi said. Trump said Iran has some "fast attack ships" remaining and warned Tehran that any of them coming "anywhere close" to the U.S. blockade would be destroyed by a "quick and brutal" strike. Iran responded with its own threats on ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. "The problem with a two-side blockade is that you know it's going to take much longer for the strait to open up and for some kind of agreement to come about - and that's what's going to send these prices further skyrocketing," said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University whose research focuses on supply chains. Analysts warn that the longer the waterway is closed, the worse prices could get. Oil has swung on markets' quick reactions to announcements from Trump and others about the fate of the war, but they remain steep overall, with crude trading Monday above $100 a barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war. Households and businesses are paying the consequences - particularly in Asia, where countries rely more heavily on fuel imports from the Middle East. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and consumers worldwide are feeling a pinch in their wallets. American drivers, for example, have seen gas prices spike to an average of more than $4.12 a gallon - up from $2.98 before the war. Some 30% of the world's fertilizer also comes through the strait, potentially harming farmers and as a result worsening hunger worldwide. "Now you're talking about impacting the global harvest," Penfield said. Between these disruptions and oil shocks, he noted that such chaos and uncertainty "bleeds out throughout the whole world." Mani said chemicals to make basic supplies like paint and metal, including aluminum, would see additional disruptions. She pointed to price pressures even before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran - including new tariffs imposed by Trump, supply chain problems from the COVID-19 pandemic and other geopolitical conflicts. "We just have to be prepared for constant higher prices, irrespective of how this blockade turns out," she said. "Each crisis has a lingering effect on the next one." (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Trump threatened to impose the blockade after talks to further a fragile ceasefire ended without a deal this past weekend. Iran had previously halted nearly all tanker traffic through the key waterway, allowing only some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees. Enforcing the blockade is likely to demand significant resources from the U.S. Navy and could prompt concerns about military force and international law, experts say. Supply chain analysts, meanwhile, stress that the restrictions could undermine the flow of oil, fertilizer, food and other goods to consumers already facing higher prices.Also read: NATO allies refuse to join Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade How the US could enforce a blockade of Iranian portsSuccessfully enforcing the blockade will require sustained commitment of U.S. Navy ships and personnel, as well as clear guidance from the Trump administration and the Navy's legal department, experts say. From a military standpoint, the biggest challenge will be the enormous volume of shipping traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of the world's traded oil normally passes. A considerable number of ships may be needed to enforce the restrictions, according to Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London.Also read: US military to enforce blockade in Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea - note to seafarers "A lot depends on the early days of the blockade, how many vessels the Americans can seize, how much they can convince vessels attempting to slip through a cordon that they're likely to be seized," Kaushal said. "But in all likelihood, I'd say it will prove difficult for the U.S. to enforce." The strait's narrow confines at least will make the geographic area of concern a limited one, said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University Law Center's National Security Law Program. Still, the amount of traffic that goes through "is going to be a challenge," he said. The U.S. may have to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to reach Iranian ports, Huntley said, a decision that could determine the blockade's legality under international law. International rules also require that any nation enforcing a blockade do so impartially, after issuing an advisory to mariners. "How it is carried out will determine whether it is lawful or not," said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general. "You can't enact a blockade with the goal of starving the civilian population. Even the DOD law of war manual states that neutral vessels carrying relief supplies should be allowed to pass." Few merchant vessels are likely to try to evade a blockade, according to Raul Pedrozo, professor of international law at the Naval War College and a retired Navy captain and JAG officer. They won't want to take their chances against the U.S. Navy, he said. "They see a warship, and they're going to heave to," Pedrozo said. Naval blockades aren't a fix-all but can be a toolBlockades historically haven't been enough on their own but have been used to exert pressure on other countries and their economies during conflicts, experts say. "There are always ways to economize, import, substitute, or just give up on certain things that you can no longer build for want of foreign inputs," Kaushal said. "It can make things a lot harder in a lot of ways, but it doesn't necessarily achieve decisive outcomes." A blockade alone can't sever Iran's economic ties with trading partners, including China and Russia, or cut off access to the Caspian Sea or Central Asia. The blockade also risks an Iranian response that could reignite the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, who specializes in Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran could deploy naval mines, small fast-attack boats and missiles against shipping in response, further disrupting the global economy. "The U.S. wants this to be a short and sweet operation. I don't think that it can be," Nadimi said. Trump said Iran has some "fast attack ships" remaining and warned Tehran that any of them coming "anywhere close" to the U.S. blockade would be destroyed by a "quick and brutal" strike. Iran responded with its own threats on ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Oil prices could keep risingWith fears of attacks, experts say most ships won't want to take the risk. The waterway could effectively stay shut - and prices, particularly for oil and gasoline, could rise even more. Halting roughly 20% of the world's flow of oil has already led to cuts from some major producers in the region, because their crude has nowhere to go. "The problem with a two-side blockade is that you know it's going to take much longer for the strait to open up and for some kind of agreement to come about - and that's what's going to send these prices further skyrocketing," said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University whose research focuses on supply chains. Analysts warn that the longer the waterway is closed, the worse prices could get. Oil has swung on markets' quick reactions to announcements from Trump and others about the fate of the war, but they remain steep overall, with crude trading Monday above $100 a barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war. Households and businesses are paying the consequences - particularly in Asia, where countries rely more heavily on fuel imports from the Middle East. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and consumers worldwide are feeling a pinch in their wallets. American drivers, for example, have seen gas prices spike to an average of more than $4.12 a gallon - up from $2.98 before the war. Global supply chains also could see further disruptionsThe blockade also would hurt the transportation of food and fertilizer, said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University. He said the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and other countries could especially see "dramatic food price increases," as supplies will have to be flown in. Some 30% of the world's fertilizer also comes through the strait, potentially harming farmers and as a result worsening hunger worldwide. "Now you're talking about impacting the global harvest," Penfield said. Between these disruptions and oil shocks, he noted that such chaos and uncertainty "bleeds out throughout the whole world." Mani said chemicals to make basic supplies like paint and metal, including aluminum, would see additional disruptions. She pointed to price pressures even before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran - including new tariffs imposed by Trump, supply chain problems from the COVID-19 pandemic and other geopolitical conflicts. "We just have to be prepared for constant higher prices, irrespective of how this blockade turns out," she said. "Each crisis has a lingering effect on the next one." (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Explore More Stories

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SECTIONS How a US blockade near the Strait; The Impact AheadBy SECTIONS How a US blockade near the Strait; The Impact Ahead
A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened t…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

The Latest: Republicans will soon face voters as the bombing continues

○ 1 source

The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf.

It is raising questions about the strategy for the conflict's next phase. The intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, killed more American troops and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up, posing more problems for Republicans hoping to get reelected.

The Latest: Seeking calm for his country, Lebanon’s president will meet with Trump at the White House The landmark meeting between Joseph Aoun and Trump comes as Lebanon and Israel continue to hold rare direct talks mediated by Washington in a bid to bring about long-term calm in Lebanon after months of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

Lebanon hopes the talks will lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from large swaths of southern Lebanon, and for the Lebanese military to receive support to assert full control in areas where Hezbollah militants had held sway. Lebanon and Israel announced a “framework agreement” on June 26, setting a plan for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Aoun is scheduled to arrive at the White House at 11 a.m. Trump’s Justice seeking phone records of reporters’ mother and spouses Subpoenas for phone records of New York Times reporters now include the mother of one journalist and the spouses of two others as the Justice Department seeks to unmask the confidential sources of reporters who wrote about Trump’s Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet.

The Times’ lawyers have moved to quash the subpoenas, noting that the mother in question is a mental health professional with confidential client relationships and that one of the two spouses is the general counsel of a law firm. The Justice Department has previously said that the reporters are not the targets of the investigation and asserted in a new legal filing Tuesday that it had followed its own protocols in issuing the subpoenas.

U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian is scheduled to hear arguments Thursday. Appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to withhold recordings and transcripts of ghostwriter interviews The appellate panel’s 2-1 ruling late Monday found “substantial” public interest in disclosing what former President Joe Biden wants to keep under wraps.

Redactions to the recordings would help protect Biden’s privacy, the majority noted. The judges suspended their decision until Aug. 3 to allow more time for Biden to consider another appeal. Mark Zwonitzer, who worked with Biden on his two memoirs, interviewed the Democrat at his home in 2016 and 2017, before his presidency.

Biden’s lawyers say the conversations were candid, personal and intended to remain private. The recordings were obtained by special counsel Robert Hur, who investigated Biden’s handling of classified documents from his time as a senator from Delaware and as vice president.

Republicans demanded the material after Hur declined to file charges against the then-president. Civilian infrastructure now targeted by both the US and Iran Both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

Kuwait’s Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy Ministry said Tehran struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night, causing fires and damage. Some 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination, making the attacks a matter of life and death for the tiny nation.

U.S. strikes have been hitting electrical equipment in Iran as well, and Iranian officials also have said Americans targeted water facilities. US command says its broad strikes are in response to Iran’s attacks on shipping The U.

S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in across six different provinces. Tanker attacks expand, forcing crew to abandon ship Traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan as attacks rage An Iranian official began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the United States, even as both countries continued to launch attacks for a 10th day of renewed fighting.

The visit by Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni comes as Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the deal. However, it remains unclear just what new arrangement could be reached to end the fighting.

Momeni met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan’s political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces, have worked to persuade the United States and Iran back to resume negotiations.

— By Munir Ahmed The limits of intensifying attacks emerge as US and Iran dig in The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will.

While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, left additional American troops dead and sent U.

S. gasoline prices back up — posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war, with Trump warning that “every time Iran kills an American Soldier” going forward, “they will pay for that killing many times over.

The Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

IEA says Mideast fighting increases energy concerns

○ 1 source

The head of the International Energy Agency stated on July 21 that escalation in Middle East hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure has heightened supply security concerns, while noting that markets retain cushioning factors including higher exports and alternative routing of Saudi and UAE crude.

He also cited threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an additional risk. Reports indicate that Houthi declarations regarding potential Red Sea port blockades and shipping attacks prompted a restrained initial market response amid ongoing mediation references by Iran.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

CurrentsAPI

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Tehran takes aim at Bahrain, Kuwait after US attacks southern Iran

○ 1 source

U.S. forces struck targets across southern and western Iran Tuesday after President Donald Trump vowed retaliation for the deaths of American troops, while Tehran hit U.S. bases in the Gulf and a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia Monday, opening a potential new front in the war and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.

Shipping companies loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports could be targeted "in any location" by Houthis, according to an email sent to companies Monday, Reuters reported. Oil prices gained nearly 2% on the escalating cycle of attacks that has all but wrecked an interim peace agreement signed last month.

But signs that Tehran and Washington want to resume diplomacy helped to limit price rises. U.S. Central Command said it had hit Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems in its latest round of strikes.

Explosions were heard around the city of Shiraz in southern Iran, state media said. Konarak and Chabahar on the southern coast, the city of Khorramabad and a civilian site outside the city of Abdanan, both in the west, all came under attack, media reports said.

Later, the IRNA news agency quoted an official in Khorramabad as saying no enemy attack had taken place there. At least 50 civilians have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent U.S. strikes on Iran, a Health Ministry official said. As hostilities spread across the region, the U.

S. State Department issued a new "worldwide caution" for Americans due to "heightened tensions in the Middle East." Iran launched renewed attacks across the Gulf, where recent strikes on desalination facilities have raised concerns about water shortages.

Attacks on Kuwaiti power generation and water desalination plants Monday caused several generation units to be taken out of service as a precautionary measure and repairs were underway, authorities said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted infrastructure in Bahrain belonging to U.

S. tech company Amazon in response to what they described as a U.S. strike on the construction site of Iran's planned Darkhovin nuclear power plant. Iranian state media reported that Iranian forces also targeted accommodation facilities of U.S. military personnel at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base.

There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military, Bahrain or Amazon on the reported incidents, which Reuters was unable to verify. The Iranian army said it launched drone attacks against three U.S. military bases in Kuwait Tuesday. The Guards said they attacked a U.

S. military site in Jordan, while Jordan said its forces intercepted and destroyed five Iranian drones. The maritime security agency UKMTO said Tuesday a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat.

Also on Tuesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers had caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the southern route of the strait. Just four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, mostly using the northern shipping lane near Iran's coast, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed.

Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the U.S. continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure – putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk. A full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could reduce global oil supply by 7% as it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region, adding to the 10% cut in oil flows from the war in the Gulf.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day cease-fire in efforts to salvage the interim deal, intended to pave the way to a lasting agreement to end the war that began on Feb. 28 with U.

S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Israel has not joined the latest round of strikes on Iran. "We have no desire to insert ourselves into this, but we are prepared for any scenario," Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Tuesday. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni had asked Pakistan to resume its mediation role in the conflict.

He later arrived in Islamabad for further talks. The latest phase of fighting has proved to be among the deadliest of the conflict for U.S. forces. U.S. troop deaths rose to 17 over the weekend. Trump, under mounting pressure at home over rising gasoline prices since the war began, said the latest U.

S. strikes on Iran were avenging the deaths of American service members. "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" he wrote on Truth Social on Monday. The war has killed thousands of people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.

Parts of Lebanon remain under Israeli occupation following attacks on Israel by Hezbollah fighters, who said they were acting in solidarity with Tehran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is due to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday to present a plan on how to disarm Iran-aligned Hezbollah and secure an Israeli withdrawal.

Reuters

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Crude oil prices rise 2% on fresh attacks by US and Iran

○ 1 source

Brent crude futures rose 1.8% to $90.84 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate contracts gained around 1.7-1.8% on Tuesday. Reports described a tanker struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, with reduced vessel crossings, alongside statements from a UBS analyst citing lower exports and Red Sea concerns, and from an Iranian official to Reuters regarding a proposed 10-day ceasefire.

U.S. and Iranian military actions were also referenced in connection with the events.

Location: Iran

SECTIONS Crude oil prices rise ; Iran Reuters